New presentation on my experiences and thoughts about the roles for AI in #Statistics: fharrell.com/talk/ai #LLM #ai #StatsSky

Looking for a faculty job in an awesome department? Might I suggest Vanderbilt Health Policy? We are searching for a tenure track faculty member, all ranks considered! Please apply - it is an outstanding department and Nashville is a great place to work and live! apply.interfolio.com/185527

If you're in Nashville on Thursday there's still time to register -- event is open to the public!

Regression Modeling Strategies 4-day virtual course May 14-15, 18-19. More than regression:principled flexible modeling, accuracy, interpretation, selection, stability, validation, Bayes, contrast w/ML &more. hbiostat.org/course @amstatnews.bsky.social @instats.bsky.social #Statistics #StatsSky

Amitabh is a coauthor on arguably the best paper on high-deductible health insurance that we have (link to thread from a few months ago to follow)

I started making this R package 6 years ago. I finally have it in a state I'm happy with, thanks to Claude Code #Rstats github.com/MattCowgill/...

Come work with me! I'm hiring for a post-doc position with expertise in health economics, to work on projects about healthcare markets and organizational form. Apply at academicjobsonline.org/ajo/jobs/31702

We would like to recruit a stellar junior faculty member in the Division of Child Health Research and Policy @deptpopmed.bsky.social at Harvard. Please circulate this announcement widely! www.populationmedicine.org/divisions-ce...

Thanks to claude code, I wrote my first iphone app: apps.apple.com/us/app/time-... It's what I have always wanted for a talk timer (as both a speaker and a chair). It's very minimal, designed to be read from across the room, and make it clear when you're running out of time.

Really enjoyed this candid ("Because I’m rich as fuck and I didn’t care about the money") conversation between @citizencohn.bsky.social and @mcuban.bsky.social www.thebulwark.com/p/mark-cuban...

The Yale crew is awesome and doing incredibly innovative things in the Medicaid and SNAP space. If you're interested in health policy and a predoc, run, do not walk, to apply for this!

ACA enhanced subsidies cap the maximum percent of income all Americans pay for non-group premiums at 8.5% income. But that doesn't mean everyone gets a subsidy. What's the maximum income you could have and still get a tax credit? The attached shows that max income for a single 57 year old in '26

This proposal is worth engaging for an under-appreciated reason.... H.R.1., passed this past summer, eliminates tax credit overpayment safe harbors for advance credits that end up too large relative to realized income the individual has during the coverage year www.wsj.com/politics/pol...

@allanmjoseph.bsky.social has been telling me there needs to be a "Dartmouth Atlas, but for pediatrics" for maybe a literal decade? And now there is! (h/t to coauthor @johngraves.bsky.social)

When is the point of no return for extending ACA tax credits? They expire 12/31, so that’s a drop dead date. Open enrollment starts November 1. If they’re not extended by then, enrollees may start dropping out. Even if open enrollment is extended, people could be hard to reach.

What's at stake in the debate over enhanced subsidies? The "average" American will spend about five years of their pre-Medicare lives in privately-purchased coverage. But these are often short spells, where marketplace plans provide a critical "bridge" at key transitional moments in life.

A new paper led by Harvard Health Policy PhD student Ye Shen finds that, in the current policy environment, more than six in ten kids will have been enrolled in Medicaid for some period of time by their 18th birthday; the program is absolutley critical for children. jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Excited to share new research led by Jessica Harvey exploring the budget impact of gene therapies for sickle cell disease, with a focus on Medicaid programs. Co-As: @ankurfactorial.bsky.social, @leah-rand.bsky.social, @akesselheim.bsky.social, & George Goshua. 🔗: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Overall, we estimate that longer hospital stays for Medicare Advantage patients are contributing to close to 2 million extra hospital bed days occupied by people who don't need to be there any more annually. This is a huge waste and bad for patient care. Why is this happening?

Next year, Marketplace enrollees are going to have a pay a larger percentage of their income in premiums (assuming Congress doesn't extend the current subsidy enhancements). Here's my overview of how it all works, including examples: www.healthinsurance.org/faqs/is-the-...

Until this year, consumers were largely shielded from rising premiums in exchange plans because enhanced premium tax credits capped premiums at no more than ~9% income for everyone. But not next year: premium tax credits will be lower & consumers will additionally shoulder the premium increases.

New teaching hook for covering "job lock" in health economics courses just dropped.

Nearly everything I do today is empirics and coding. But my English degree is unquestionably the most important thing I took from (liberal arts) undergrad.

Decades of mechanistic talk about university degrees as if they were bundles of 'skills' and 'prep' are about to be proved completely wrong (obviously). Want to get a real boost? Do History or English.

Trump's bill could strip Medicaid from 12 million Americans. Repeal isn't enough. Democrats must use this opportunity to propose bold reforms that truly fix Medicaid’s core problems. In @thebulwark.com, I share how to build a system that actually works: www.thebulwark.com/p/democrats-...

Eric Roberts and @joefigs.bsky.social led a groundbreaking new study on Medicaid and Medicare, out today in NEJM. I’m lucky to have been a part of it. Medicare saves lives. But is it enough to save lives of the most vulnerable Americans? The study suggests no; Medicaid still matters. (1/11)

ADVISEES: YOUR MENTORS WANT TO KNOW HOW YOU'RE DOING. (And, yes, I know I could do better with reaching out to you, but leave that aside for the moment.) Please don't ever think you're bothering your former mentors with requests to catch up. They are not a bother. They want to hear from you.

The Value Zeitgeist — Considering the Slowdown in Health Care Spending Growth | New England Journal of Medicine www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.... @melindabbuntin.bsky.social , Carrie Colla, and I argue it's too soon to give up on value-based care.

New article out in Health Affairs Scholar with a great group of co-authors led by Jane Zhu providing a novel view on provider networks & adequacy from the carrier perspective Medicaid managed care organizations' experiences with network adequacy doi.org/10.1093/hasc... #HAScholar

Indeed -- from our recent JAMA viewpoint jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

An influential recent finding in health economics is that the welfare benefit of Medicaid to beneficiaries may be less than the cost to the gov't for providing it. This indicates we need a strong social appetite for redistribution to justify that $ transfers involved. (1/2)

🚨 Rethinking Moral Hazard: Moral hazard in health insurance—the increased spending that comes when you get insured—is usually seen as wasteful due to insurance’s price distortion. This paper challenges that view.

Instead, people are just really bad at estimating percentages They systematically overestimate smaller %s and underestimate larger %s, including ENTIRELY NON-POLITICAL %s, such as the % of the population that owns an Apple product, has a passport, or has indoor plumbing

Not too much goin' on today, so thought I'd tell you about a new paper out in @nejm.org w/Angrist, Gao, and Yeh We explain & demonstrate why instrumental variable methods are essential for trials of medical interventions that fail to play out as intended Check it: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/lsnmm...

New: ACA enrollment has more than doubled since 2020, with the greatest growth in states won by President Trump. If enhanced premium aid is allowed to expire at the end of this year, those states will see big out-of-pocket premiums hikes and loss of health coverage. www.kff.org/policy-watch...

Thread: Obviously I'm very pleased at this recognition, but I'm sharing this for other reasons. 1st, many have the impression that people who have been successful professionally have walked a straight path - got the right degree, right 1st job, succeeded right away.

Using a personal example, AHRQ funded my dissertation research (it was NCHSR then) for $15K in 1981. 44 years later, between policy relevant research, 2 terms of public service (@FTC @DOJ), founding a health care data repository (@HCCI) & teaching health economics, I think the investment paid off.

With the Agency for Healthcare [sic] Research and Quality on the chopping block, I thought it might be useful to highlight a few ways in my own research on efficiency and access in the U.S. health care system has benefited from AHRQ data, collaboration and funding.

One dynamic to watch is that Medicaid eligibility is based on current monthly income. For many, it serves as a bridge after losing a job. Something to keep in mind as Congress aims to trim Medicaid spend & as tens if not hundreds of thousands of fed workers are laid off.

Four primary levers to *reduce* Medicaid costs are: 1. ↓ Eligibility 2. ↓ Benefits 3. ↓ Payment rates 4. ↑ "Ordeals" (frequent redetermination, more paperwork / hoops, like work reqts, ↑ prior auth / utilization mgmt) The primary lever to *shift* fed costs to states is ↓ matching rates.

J-PAL North America is on Bluesky! @j-palna.bsky.social

Trump & Musk have somehow managed to frame recent events as a binary: Either you want to burn it all down, or you support the status quo It’s a false choice, obviously. But Dems/Trump critics have done a poor job articulating that failure in logic and existence of option #3: actually fix things

Four primary levers to *reduce* Medicaid costs are: 1. ↓ Eligibility 2. ↓ Benefits 3. ↓ Payment rates 4. ↑ "Ordeals" (frequent redetermination, more paperwork / hoops, like work reqts, ↑ prior auth / utilization mgmt) The primary lever to *shift* fed costs to states is ↓ matching rates.

Update: we may have a solution on this -- grateful to those who shared and reached out.

a good Q for an enterprising labor economics PhD student would be to evaluate how many of the 65k had planned to resign anyway

I work with a talented researcher impacted by recent Δ at NIH. She has demonstrated expertise in the development of multicomponent chronic disease behavioral interventions. Her work leverages innovative methods and mutlidisciplinary collaborations. Please DM if you're hiring in this space! (1/2)

I spend an *insane* amount of my time thinking about how to integrate AI into teaching, research, etc. The secret sauce is in who can use AI tools most creatively. As I come to this realization, at no time have I been more thankful that I can lean on my liberal arts (English LIt & Econ) degree.

I tell my patients: it is extremely difficult to control other chronic conditions until we tackle mental health problems. New study shows that accelerating mental health care saves Veterans’ lives, and vast majority of gain is not from mental health causes of death.

Hello World! The Editorial Board of Health Economics is pleased to announce that we are now live on the happier, friendlier, and all-together Blue-er place. Please follow us (and repost) for updates on articles and journal issues as they come out.