Would be fun to show this to someone in 2015, and ask them to describe a sequence of events that could bring about this world.

#Europe's #energy remains costly because of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. Yet it's worth aknowledging how much has been achieved since the start of this war in early 2022. #Power & #gas prices have dropped substaantially. #Reneswables have expanded, #fossilfuel use has declined. That's progress.

Check out Eurasia Group's #TopRisks2026 out just now. Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally. You can download the full report here: www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...

Ny spalte i @altinget.bsky.social i dag! www.altinget.no/artikkel/sto...

Natural gas is no longer expensive in Europe. That should also soon feed into lower wholesale electricity prices. See below a few details from my briefings. Let me know if you'd like to receive it.

What a timeline!

#Ukraine has suffered what may be the biggest attacks on its #energy infrastructure that any country has ever endured. #Russia has struck every power station plus its gas production, bringing available capacity to virtually zero–which to my knowledge has never happened to a nation.

Ny spalte ute i @altinget.bsky.social ! www.altinget.no/artikkel/sto...

New piece out now! Looking at political capital and how it is influenced by spcial media and hyper active news cycles open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...

#EU #coal prices have plunged to around $90/t, the lowest level since May'21 amid a shift to #cleanpower & #renewables. Coal's power share in the EU has plunged from 40% in 1985 to just over 10%. It'll take some time to feed through, but lower fuel import reliance will bring down power costs too.

The combination of high inflation, low growth and relatively feeble centrist political response has been devastating for politics in many places. Cause for optimism with Carneys win in Canada and Jonas in Norway though.

#Oil intensity is falling in big economies (incl #China). It explains why oil demand growth is flatlining. Though there's a big outlier in #SouthKorea, which has taken on petrochemical/refining capacity as others have cut back, overal oil intensity has been declining for 20 years in big economies.

Ny pod ute nå med @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social! Spennende valg i Bolivia og Moldova. podcasts.apple.com/no/podcast/p...

Very likely. Trying desperately to make him stop believing it when it gets out of hand will probably be much harder.

The global share of combustion engines has plunged from 90% in 2019 to not much more than 50% in 2025. With #EV sales (incl. hybrids) to hit 20+ mln in 2025 we’ve reached levels forecast by the IEA’s most bullish scenario for 2030 in 2019-which was largely dismissed esp by the #oil industry.

One reason why #Europe's growth has lagged is that the #EU is the most trade-reliant of all major economies - which is tricky given #trade as share of global GDP is in decline, not least amid Trump's #tariff sprees. Ping me if you'd like to receive my daily #energy, #resources & #industry briefing.

Americans with no access to healthcare and social safety net must look at this news with some bewilderment about the nations priorities.

EU #gas stocks will be 90% full by 1 Nov - assuming similar daily injections btw 1Jul-1Aug & btw 1Jun-1Jul and then half current avg daily injection btw 1 Sep-1 Nov. That would support EU move to allow loosening of pre-winter storage mandates and instead let normal market conditions ensure supply.

What a timeline this is!

‼️ First official exit polls from 🇵🇱 presidential election Rafal Trzaskowski (Tusk's candidate, PO): 50.3% Karol Nawrocki (Law and Justice, PiS): 49.7%

This is a timely piece by the @financialtimes.com editorial board. If centrist governments do not deliver, it will be very hard to stop the rise of the far right. And «Moderate parties need bolder policymaking, visible delivery and more compelling personalities to counter them.» on.ft.com/44VsvHq

Rolig helg? Trenger noe å lytte til? Hør meg og @tarjeiskirbekk.bsky.social diskutere valgene i Romania, Albania, Portugal og Polen i denne podcasten!

The internet is a strange and fun place. I’m having a coffee and reading what at first glance appears to be two dogs discussing a tv show. @abbeythelab.bsky.social

I think the lessons of recent campaigns is that facing populist messaging on economics and immigration with moral accusations is the political equivalent of showing up with a knife to a gunfight.

Vil høyrepopulistene vinne presidentvalg i Polen 1.juni? Hva var dramatikken valgkvelden i Romania? Hvordan gikk det 3 valget på 3 år i Portugal? Og hva var dynamikken i valget i Albania? Finn ut ved høre på podkast! open.spotify.com/episode/6xNZ...

Interested in energy policy, climate and resources? You absolutely should follow my good friend and colleague @hgloy.bsky.social. He runs @eurasiagroup.net global energy, climate and resources practice!

@amundvik.bsky.social and I hosted the 1st informal #SvalbardRetreat this week, discussing all things #energy, #climate & #security with gvt officials, business leaders, and friends. What an amazing place, and inspiring discussions. Look out for the 2nd retreat in 2026!

Svaret er vel ikke så komplisert. Om du tar velgerne for gitt, så går de andre steder.

Election Day is Monday. This is the most consequential election in our lifetimes — and Mark Carney is ready to lead. Make your plan to vote #CanadaStrong: how2vote.ca

Very exiting to be in Ottawa for the last stretch of a very important campaign!

I’m looking for book recommendations for Easter! Naturally, crime novels would be a hit, but open to any suggestions!

Hva skjer med de kommende valg i Polen, Canada og Australia? Og hvordan går det med regjeringsbygging i Tyskland og Østerrike? Dette og mer i podkast med @amundvik.bsky.social. open.spotify.com/episode/4eia...

Mike Myers has entered the Mark Carney chat. bsky.app/profile/mark...

Tenker stemningen er god på Høyres hus nå. www.nettavisen.no/erna-solberg...

Maybe it was a grass roots project after all..

Translated version of todays column on European energy security in the new geopolitical landscape. open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...

Ny spalte i @altinget.bsky.social ute nå. Selv om overgangen fra ett energisystem til et annet er krevende og innebærer kostnader på kort og mellomlang sikt, er det åpenbart at EU ikke kan leve med en situasjon med stor importavhengighet av energi permanent. www.altinget.no/artikkel/nok...

Excellent thread on current events in Europe by my great colleague @mijrahman.bsky.social

👀

This @financialtimes.com article by @jburnmurdoch.ft.com is incredibly fascinating! Operative conclusion for rest of world: it’s very hard to understand and predict the behaviour and actions of the US right using the values of the democratic west. on.ft.com/41xPi8G

Italians not liking anyone of these guys.

Im going to go ahead and say that Americans already should be quite worried..

Very interesting!

Some thoughts on energy transition and security as the germans gp to tue polls. open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...

Some thoughts on energy transition and security as the germans gp to tue polls. open.substack.com/pub/amundvik...

Somehow I’m both very surprised and not surprised at all.. on.ft.com/42SOsWi Donald Trump Jr invests in ‘steroid Olympics’

The emphasis in Europe should be on acquiring enough energy to run industries and heat homes, says our senior advisor @amundvik.bsky.social. “Fixing a wholesale market price cap is not going to solve that when the underlying problem is the lack of energy.”

Gave a few comments to this @financialtimes.com article. on.ft.com/42RQo1e «EU weighs temporary gas price cap to counter diverging costs with US»

While everybody is focussed on planet Trump, check out what is happening on planet Earth.

The big disconnect 🔌 Baltic states will sever the last power links to Russia on Sunday & become part of the EU’s electricity grid, as Moscow continues its aggression against Ukraine & its campaign of sabotage across Europe. @financialtimes.com on.ft.com/4i68y43