Scary movie

No Return To Normal: Why The Iran War Will Permanently Rewire Global Energy Flows With thanks to the Editors, read the full article here in the Center for International Relations and Sustainable Development's Horizons magazine here: cirsd.org/horizon-arti...

Hey @ssencommunity.bsky.social what's with the constant power cuts in Oxfordshire since Sunday? Bit of comms would be appreciated....

#StraitOfHormuz incident: Indian supertanker attacked by Iran, confirmed by naval authorities. Nobody was hurt, and no oil spilled. The tanker has since turned away, out of the Strait. Still a serious escalation amid ongoing ceasefire talks btw #US and #Iran.

Kuwaiti supertanker ‘Al Salmi’ was hit by #Iran, sitting fully laden offshore Dubai. No one was hurt and no #oil spilt. The incident confirms worries Iran would target the dozens of tankers sitting in the Gulf (most of them full of oil and chemicals), not just vessels exiting the #StraitOfHormuz

Several tankers to India&China passing in/out of StraitHormuz. The ships show where China/India see shortages. The ships for China carry chemicals & LNG (manuf/power/transport). The India marked ships carry LPG (cooking). Still, most ships don't want to pass SoH, as seen in number of parked tankers.

World maritime trade summarised: #APAC & #EMEA trade much more than #AMERS - #Asia dominates #container #shipping (goods), the #SouthernHemisphere #drybulk (mining), The #MiddleEast #tankers (normally), and there's also lots of inland tanker trading in Europe (to/from its chemical hubs)...

Growing concern in EU capitals that Trump is going to pressure the EU to clear up his mess in the Strait of Hormuz. Argument being: “You guys need the oil most, so you need to do the heavy lifting” on mine sweeping, naval-based air defence & the protection of shipping lanes

Bravo! youtu.be/T4Upf_B9RLQ?...

Who’s Pulling the Strings on the World Stage? Ask Eurasia Group's Puppet Regime, says #NYTimes. Or (more seriously) listen to #Montel podcast asking if there's a geopolitical state of emergency? (I was kindly asked to participate). montelnews.com/podcasts/plu... www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/a...

There's several factors at play...

#China + #India #oil imports flatlined in 2025 (14.78 mbpd/'25 vs 14.75 mbpd/'24). China imports even dipped, from an average of 10.06 mbpd in '24 to 9.98 mbpd in '25. With output growing, a supply overhang has been building. That helps explain why crude hasn't jumped more even amid #Iran risks.

I wrote this song on Saturday, recorded it yesterday and released it to you today in response to the state terror being visited on the city of Minneapolis. It’s dedicated to the people of Minneapolis, our innocent immigrant neighbors and in memory of Alex Pretti and Renee Good. Stay free

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026... What could possibly go wrong?

"The Kremlin is attempting to freeze Ukrainians to death," writes our correspondent in Kyiv. "But people are pressing on with their duties at temperatures where frostbite is a real danger." This is her account of life in a shivering city. 🔗 www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

A new world setting in

#Europe's #energy remains costly because of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine. Yet it's worth aknowledging how much has been achieved since the start of this war in early 2022. #Power & #gas prices have dropped substaantially. #Reneswables have expanded, #fossilfuel use has declined. That's progress.

Check out Eurasia Group's #TopRisks2026 out just now. Risk #2: Overpowered is related to #energy and regards #electrification: #China has mastered it. The #US is ceding it. That will become impossible to ignore, globally. You can download the full report here: www.eurasiagroup.net/issues/Top-R...

It’s old-fashioned to defend mainstream journalism these days but some of the most reliable reporting from people actually on the ground will be the AP and Reuters the next 24 hours. Your Substack journalist writing takes will be using frontline reporting from them.

The likelihood of a snowy Christmas has collapsed across Germany (comparing 1961-1990 with 1991-2020), according to its meteorological service DWD.

Natural gas is no longer expensive in Europe. That should also soon feed into lower wholesale electricity prices. See below a few details from my briefings. Let me know if you'd like to receive it.

This is a very sad, and totally avoidable development. Purely down to bad and malicious politics.

Peak #coal (finally)? 2025 Jan-Oct seaborne thermal coal volumes were lower than than in 2024 and 2023. It's possible this was a economy/weather related dip. Yet given strong growth in #renewables, #storage I reckon coal use for #power generation is in structural decline (i.e. it's peaked). 🤞

#Ukraine has suffered what may be the biggest attacks on its #energy infrastructure that any country has ever endured. #Russia has struck every power station plus its gas production, bringing available capacity to virtually zero–which to my knowledge has never happened to a nation.

A Gob of Bassets? A Punch of Boxers?

#EU #coal prices have plunged to around $90/t, the lowest level since May'21 amid a shift to #cleanpower & #renewables. Coal's power share in the EU has plunged from 40% in 1985 to just over 10%. It'll take some time to feed through, but lower fuel import reliance will bring down power costs too.

Amazing little moments of serendipity. I bumped into my friend & #EurasiaGroup colleague Scott Young at #Toronto airport today. He was transiting British Columbia/Europe. Me the other way. Had two lovely beers at #AirCanadaCafe

#China #US #India #Russia emit more than 50% of all #CO2. The #EU would also be near the top if it were counted as one. That means almost all #emissions come from the northern hemisphere and it explains why the #GlobalSouth demands #ClimateAction must first be taken by those that have emitted most.

#Inflation has been a populist enabler in rich countries. It's outpaced #GDP growth for years, so most people have become poorer. It's toxic, esp since the super-rich get richer from equity booms/tax breaks. Gvts must urgently get growth over inflation to prevent a further rise of anger politics.

Gee, Abbey was sweet

I would like to apply to be part of the #GBBO cleanup crew My skills are: - making food disappear quickly - excellent handshakes - cleaning up spills

#Oil intensity is falling in big economies (incl #China). It explains why oil demand growth is flatlining. Though there's a big outlier in #SouthKorea, which has taken on petrochemical/refining capacity as others have cut back, overal oil intensity has been declining for 20 years in big economies.

#Electricity in #France on 3 Sep averaged -€13/MWh as #solar & #wind output soared. A problem for grid operators (power surges/drops can destabilize them), it signals the solution is to bring on batteries/lines to store/send surplus to times/regions of deficits/high prices. Result: lower avg prices.

#China’s demographic peak (it's lost 25 million people sincce 2020) and its green boom since Covid mean its #oil demand has topped out. While #India’s demand will grow, its economy is less oil-thirsty and also greening so won't make up for China’s drop. Whisper it: may this mean peak oil demand?

Growth in #LNG demand since 2022 has been negligible, and less down to structural demand growth and more due to winter weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, e.g. cold spell across Europe and North America in Jan-24, and a late winter cold snap in Europe in Mar-2025.

The global share of combustion engines has plunged from 90% in 2019 to not much more than 50% in 2025. With #EV sales (incl. hybrids) to hit 20+ mln in 2025 we’ve reached levels forecast by the IEA’s most bullish scenario for 2030 in 2019-which was largely dismissed esp by the #oil industry.

#China & #India Jan-Jul 2025 combined #oil imports were almost 3 mln bpd lower than that time 2024, depriving the market of what used to be its most important sources of demand growth. That, plus #OPEC supply increases, helps explain relatively low #crude prices despite #geopolitical tensions....

#EU #economic conditions have improved. Perhaps the most promising trends: * fewer bankruptcies, * increased industrial production, * dip in unemployment, * reduced deficit & debt to GDP ratio. #GDP growth remains low and #US #tariffs won't help, but I'd say these are grounds for cautious optimism.

The world’s richest countries may not be who you're thinking of if measuring by median wealth instead of the more comon #GDP per capita, or by income. That's because people in countries like #France #Italy #Spain accumulated property wealth over generations (more so than #Germany or even the #US)...

One reason why #Europe's growth has lagged is that the #EU is the most trade-reliant of all major economies - which is tricky given #trade as share of global GDP is in decline, not least amid Trump's #tariff sprees. Ping me if you'd like to receive my daily #energy, #resources & #industry briefing.

Thank you crew of BA56 J'burg-Heathrow. Smoke & smell of fire forced return of fully loaded A380 within 1h of takeoff. Scary, as is landing with 100/t of excess fuel weight. Crew stayed calm, plane landed safely, then evacuated swiftly. Of course there are delays. But nobody got hurt! That matters!

$65 bln for a runway and a new terminal seems rather steep, esp given Britain's recent inability to develop projects to budget & schedule www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Britain, France & Germany will intensify their defence policies and developments, and jointly probably raise military spending from $200 bln now to $350 bln by 2029 - with Germany making up half that budget by the end of the decade....

When people argue for new nuclear power to bring down prices, they often fail to mention cost. Take the UK's Hinkley Point C, which'll cost £50 bln by the time it's completed, and for which the gvt will guarantee the operator £100/MWh over 30 years. That'll make it 2x as costly as offshore wind..

Sentiment in #German energy-intensive industries is improving, as #energy #industry & #defense policies and orders are kicking in. That's visible in the stock market performance of related firms this week, with a 'laggard' like RWE seeing a 25% rise, and Rheinmetall or ThyssenKrupp up some 200%...

Judging by China's soaring #solar & #EV output but also mounting losses, it seems Beijing's deploying green stimulus. Less than 10% of China's EV brands will turn a profit in the next 5 years, says the South China Morning Post. Meanwhile, China's 5 big solar firms piled up $1.1 bln losses in Q1/25.

EU #gas stocks will be 90% full by 1 Nov - assuming similar daily injections btw 1Jul-1Aug & btw 1Jun-1Jul and then half current avg daily injection btw 1 Sep-1 Nov. That would support EU move to allow loosening of pre-winter storage mandates and instead let normal market conditions ensure supply.

Find of the day: * #VW #EV sales soared by 46.7% *globally* in H1/25 vs H1/24 - it's a remarkable recovery from criticism it slept through the EV revolution. * Within Germany, a whopping 8/10 top-10 selling EVs were made by VW (or subsidiary). Ping me if you'd like to receive my daily briefing.

#ENERGY-INDUSTRY-BRIEF • Trump to create US manufacturing headwinds • Big drinks firms are huge polluters. • Germany launches the awesomely named "Waserstoffbeschleunigungsgesetz" - the hydrogen acceleration law to aid industrial recovery Message me if you'd like to receive my full daily briefing.

#ENERGY-INDUSTRY-BRIEF • #EU draft #ClimateLaw changes language to focus on #energy #security & affordability • Germany to triple defence budget by 2029 in big stimulus and energy demand push • #Haiwaii #electricity is very #CO2 intensive Message me if you'd like to receive my full daily briefing.