The thing that strikes me about Brexit is how accurate were the predictions of the experts who really knew what they were talking about.

New blog post! 🚨 "From Bucher to Bayes: A Brief Introduction to Bayesian Model-Based Network Meta-Analysis for Indirect Treatment Comparisons using R" theissbendixen.com/mbnma/

🌏 As we near #WorldEnvironmentDay, May’s UK heatwave has highlighted the urgency of climate action. The #UKCTUNetwork is proud to mark 2 years as a Supporter of the Concordat for Environmental Sustainability of Research and Innovation Practice. 🔗Learn more here: tinyurl.com/bam2wcu9

Climate change is real and it's happening and it's only going to get worse until everyone wakes the fuck up. By far the biggest threat to us all. We don't have another planet we can go to.

This sounds nice, but it's a great way to undermine the welfare state. When the middle class has skin in the game, they defend the system. When welfare is 'just for the poor', it becomes a poor program: stigmatized, underfunded, easy to gut. That's why billionaires keep pushing this idea.

Regular reminder that there are alternatives to Google Search and Google Chrome. Some European alternatives are listed here: european-alternatives.eu/alternative-... (where you can also find alternatives for other tech products should you be looking for them)

Staggering really that anyone thought this "show" was a good idea, let alone that they were actually allowed to produce the thing. An exploitative abomination.

Good news, everyone! I have a short piece coming out in The Conversation on Monday that explains the main issues with this study. It's impossible for me to have the same media reach as the original press release. So I'd be extremely grateful if people could help me share it as widely as possible 🙏

"Conventional statistical practice, which systematically ignores certain sources of error ..., is bound to yield overconfident results that will often fail to replicate." New preprint by Knief & Forstmeier (2026): doi.org/10.1101/2025... #stats #MetaSci

I wrote this in 2016.

‘The creatures outside looked from pig to man, and from man to pig, and from pig to man again…’

The normative fraud that Errington describes is something I've seen my whole career. A biologist once told me, if p is very small, it can't be a false positive. Teams condition on null being false, see anything that makes p small as truth-seeking. These traditions spread bc they get you published.

Denmark leading the way. Other numbers embarrassingly high.

📣 The difference between replicable and not replicable is not itself scientifically replicable. 📣 New work with Erkan Buzbas, showing that verdicts such as "X% of results replicated" are based on an inferential machinery that doesn't work. arxiv.org/abs/2604.26268

But it's great for getting more grant funding so you can re-analyze the nurses health study for the umpteenth time, hoping to catch another p < 0.05.

Latest dichotomania news

Great essay, worth reading. We are "ruled" by sociopaths. www.theatlantic.com/magazine/202...

How every layer of science's "self-correcting machinery" failed when Iva Veseli and I simply wanted to reproduce the findings of a high-profile study on gut microbiome and autism: merenlab.org/2026/04/15/u...

Heat pumps are the most efficient heating technology ever invented. They harvest and compress pre existing heat in the air, ground or water and transport it where it is needed. That energy is all around us. And it does not have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Hungarian election today... Side note: news broadcasters really need to brush up on Hungarian pronunciation.

AI seems to be the topic of the year — nearly every conversation I have in my role as academic lead for good research practice touches on it in some way. I’d like to lay out my developing thoughts for conversation and critique. (1/7)

People are still testing their baseline characteristics in RCTs, and there's really no excuse.

I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.

I feel much more anger towards the British pundits & politicians who failed to understand the depravity & derangement of Donald Trump than I do the ones who failed to understand the idiocy of Brexit. But it doesn’t really matter because they’re exactly the same bloody people.

Frank Harrell on why and how to do Bayes for clinical trials and the recent FDA draft guidelines statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/26/f...

I wrote about the findings from the inquiry about the impact of the pandemic on the NHS, and the mistakes of the first year. I hope it makes you angry - it should make us all angry. open.substack.com/pub/christin...

Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...

Oh wow our campaign to Take Big Money Out of British Politics with @38degrees.bsky.social now has more than 100,000 signatures! Can we make it even more to show government this needs to happen? Do sign and share the petition if you haven't already! thanks 😊 you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/ta...

Quietly, calmly and forensically, BBC just dismantled the Trump communications shitshow on Iran. No hyperbole, just laying out an unprecedented military, diplomatic and reputational shambles. Worth a watch. (🎥 BBC News/BBC Verify)

I joined the boycott. Consider joining yourself. All AI is dangerous but ChatGPT's developers are truly devoid of conscience.

💥 This "Write to your MP" call has had an extraordinary resonse -- nearly 12,000 emails now landing in the inboxes of over 600 MPs. 💥 And the debate is tomorrow. If you've not yet asked your MP to attend, please do so NOW - and also SHARE this post/link. Thank you.

🔥 Write to you MP now!! Here is the link you need —> www.europeanmovement.co.uk/contact-mp-e...

⭐ NEW PAPER ⭐ on a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models - account for uncertainty in the assumed true performance of the model - plus calculate assurance probabilities & the value of information onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

The Representation of the People Bill is a good start, but doesn't go nearly far enough. First Past the Post leaves millions unfairly shut out of democracy. #Democracy #ElectoralReform

Maybe the start of an outbreak of common sense? We can hope

Everything I ever needed to know in life I learned from the men in the Epstein files statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/02/08/e...

Exactly

Finally

We need a new word - "corruption" isn't nearly strong enough

The shooting of Alex Pretti was (US) state sanctioned murder and has been followed up by attempts to destroy evidence and stop local police (and even the FBI) from investigating. Minnesota police are trying to counter the lies and illegality. Terrifying open.substack.com/pub/heatherc...

Worth remembering when looking at the horrific scenes in the US right now that both Reform and the Tories have pledged to bring in ICE-style organisations to the UK if they win power

The US granted visas to Jews but only allowed 30,000 in from Germany a year. You had to wait for your number to come up. Meet Robert Smallbones. An unassuming British diplomat who 'hacked' this system so effectively (saving 48 THOUSAND Jews) the UK government kept his scheme secret for decades /1 🧵

Good news - just a shame that this story has to include Conservative and Reform politicians saying stupid things, and not pointing out how idiotic they are.

Absolutely

Dr. Gladys West, the pioneering mathematician whose work laid the foundation for modern GPS technology, has died. She was 95.