Climate change DEFINITELY affects hurricane: STRENGTH: Warmer water is hurricane food RAINFALL: Warm air holds more water vapor SURGE: Warmer water expands, warmer ice melts, sea levels rise PREDICTION: hotter seas mean faster intensification

The western end of Jamaica where #Melissa is projected to make landfall has the least well-built structures of anyplace on the island. Graphic is from a 2021 paper, "Poverty and hurricane risk exposure in Jamaica": www.researchgate.net/publication/...

Received a few questions regarding insurance in Jamaica. Roughly 20% of residential properties currently have insurance. However. Of that ~20%, a remarkable 95% of those properties are "underinsured" -- or not insured for the full value of their home. #Melissa jamaica-gleaner.com/article/news...

#Melissa: It is not hyperbolic to say that parts of western and central Jamaica will be unrecognizable once the storm passes. This is one of the strongest known tropical cyclones to make landfall anywhere in the world. And. Yet another example of a strengthening storm up to the point of landfall.

For @catinsight.bsky.social: here are my full results using 4 RI thresholds by decade. If you want underlying data send me an email.

North Atlantic TCs achieving 150-kt maximum winds since 1966 (the satellite era): Camille (1969): 150 kt, 905 hPa Anita (1977): 150 kt, 926 hPa David (1979): 150 kt, 924 hPa Allen (1980): 165 kt, 899 hPa Gilbert (1988): 160 kt, 888 hPa Andrew (1992): 150 kt, 922 hPa Mitch (1998): 155 kt, 905 hPa

My jaw dropped. Frightening display of power tonight by Melissa. Please stay safe Jamaica.

Atlantic TCs undergoing an RI period of at least 60kts/24 hours by decade. Substantial increase in the extreme tail of the RI distribution in the past 25 years.

No kings rally, Hightstown, NJ

I wrote about how Hurricane Katrina helped spur pretty remarkable improvements in hurricane forecasts since 20 years ago and how current and planned budget cuts by the Trump administration to research could set us back.

Fires started on private lands and transmitted to public are more damaging than the reverse - relatively uncommon for destructive fires to start in public wildlands and spread to private communities. Fig 6 is esp striking. www.nature.com/articles/s41... HT @jaishrijuice.bsky.social for re-upping

Remembering Katrina, 20 years later. Here’s a few of (imo) my more compelling photos on-site from post-event surveys in September 2005 and February 2006.

My article on Katrina, 20 years later. Couldn’t cover every facet of this historic event in just 1,500 words. I focus on the fact that risk isn’t static…and continues to rise. www.munichre.com/en/insights/...

#Erin becomes the 7th Atlantic storm in the Satellite Era (1966-present) to reach 150 mph by August 16. 1969: Camille (Aug 16) 1980: Allen (Aug 4) 2004: Charley (Aug 13) 2005: Dennis (Jul 8) 2005: Emily (Jul 17) 2024: Beryl (Jul 1) 2025: Erin (Aug 16) FYI: Don't write a season off in early August.

Erin’s radius of maximum wind (RMW) is only about 9km this morning. That is exceptionally small and characteristic of high-end rapid intensification in pretty much any basin. At this rate, category 5 intensity is likely by later this morning or early afternoon.

Erin's currently estimated increase from 75 kt to 130 kt intensity (maximum sustained wind anywhere in the hurricane) in **12 hours** is a 55-kt change exceeded by only three Atlantic hurricanes in the past 50 years: 2005 Wilma (75 kt!), 2007 Felix (60 kt), and 2024 Milton (60 kt).

Reminder that the Tsunami Warning Centers are part of the National Weather Service. It would be nice to have them fully funded.

Tomorrow: Save NOAA Labs event, hosted by Boulder Public Library. Speakers, including CIRES' Laura Riihimaki, will brief Congressman Neguse on work happening at NOAA Boulder labs & why it matters. 🗓️: July 12 🕙: 10:15 am 📍: Canyon Theater, Main Library calendar.boulderlibrary.org/event/14927555

Speaking of Katrina +20, this is important new work on subsidence rates in New Orleans and its impacts on the city’s critical levee system. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Everything’s horrible so here’s some cuteness from the pupnado.

Remarkable! "Purposely driving or walking into floodwaters accounts for more than 86% of total U.S. flood fatalities." Flash flooding the most deadly flood type; males more likely to be killed in floods than females; ages <30 the most vulnerable to floods. www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/13...

As horrible as the Guadeloupe River flash flood was, it was an isolated small scale event. FEMA couldn’t even handle that. Imagine the call volume that’ll be generated (and not answered) when a major hurricane hits a populated area, possibly just weeks from now.

Respected outlets continue to quote these estimates. Why? 2018 California Wildfires: $400B 2024 Hurricane Season: $500B 2025 California Wildfires: $250-275B April 2025 US SCS: $80-90B These include wild guesses about future secondary / tertiary financial impacts. Has anyone ever sought validation?

Journalists and others, take note: this is an excellent, comprehensive, and up-to-date perspective on the still-escalating threats to NOAA beyond the NWS. NWS remains in pretty dire straits, yet the prospects for the rest of NOAA are actually even more dire (especially with respect to climate).

Scenes from No Kings rally in Trenton, NJ

Climate.gov, a major US government website supporting public education on climate science, will likely shut down after almost all of its staff were fired. What would be worse is if the website were co-opted to publish climate denial content.

Zerstörung der Klimawissenschaft in den USA - “Es wird Menschenleben kosten” (Destruction of climate science in the USA - “It will cost lives”) | New article by Johann Grolle for @spiegel.de: www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft...

Important dispatch from @michaelrlowry.bsky.social, a meteorologist at the front lines of hurricane season. I especially appreciate his highlighting that it's not just forecasts - those forecasts only exist when they're embedded in an ecosystem of rigorous observational data and research. 🎁 link

Some pictures of today’s incredible stormchase and deployment near Brownfield, TX by the ICECHIP team. Another successful deployment! @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org

Anya @araedler.bsky.social wins Most Stylish out of the Munich Re ICECHIP contingent! @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org

Trump stopped mentioning the hazard mitigation grant program in major disaster declarations, so I started looking into what was happening. Here's what I found by asking each state asking about the status of their recent hazard mitigation requests. Full story here: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Yesterday was a down day…repositioned to Lubbock and took some time to 3D scan and cross section some of the big hailstones the @nsficechip.bsky.social teams had collected over the past two weeks

Myself and @bryanwx.bsky.social during a down morning on ICECHIP. Ferrying up to Lubbock with the @ibhs.org team after lunch. @nsficechip.bsky.social

Watching three cells to our west, south of Fort Stockton, TX to see if any will become dominant. Note the drone in the mammatus shot @ibhs.org @nsficechip.bsky.social

Awaiting slow moving cells south of Fort Stockton, TX.

Important to stay hydrated in the Texas heat. Carbohydrated, too. Lum’s BBQ in Junction, TX is amazingly good.

Gearing up for day 6 operations. @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org

Superb mammatus south of San Angelo, TX, 26 May. @nsficechip.bsky.social @ibhs.org

On 26 May, we intercepted a hail-producing storm just west of San Angelo, TX. Pictured: Dr. Anya Radler of Munich Re and @wxdocg.bsky.social and Jake Sorber from @ibhs.org. We measured and collected hail along most of the disdrometer array. @nsficechip.bsky.social

We collect a representative sample of hailstones, measure and weigh them, then crush them to determine compressive strength. A data collection race against time and melting. @ibhs.org @nsficechip.bsky.social

Favorite stone I found. Beautiful rings of wet and dry growth. Roaring Springs, TX, 5/25. @ibhs.org @nsficechip.bsky.social

Disdrometer doing its thing while sheltering from the 5/25 Roaring Springs, TX hailstorm. 🤣 The larger stones fell a bit further south of this location. @ibhs.org @nsficechip.bsky.social

On Sunday 25 May, @nsficechip.bsky.social successfully intercepted a developing mesocyclone near Roaring Springs, Tx. Here are some of the big stones found by the team. (I found the 101mm shown here! 😎) @ibhs.org

Proud to be working with with @ibhs.org and @nsficechip.bsky.social this week in the field to collect hail and hailstorm environmental data to improve our understanding of these costly storms.

Most ground teams deployed on a storm that produced wind-driven baseball-sized hail near Christoval, Texas yesterday afternoon. Another team found 5.87 inch hail further to the east by Menard.

NWS Houston down 10 of its normal staff of 24 going into hurricane season. 🎁 link:

"The cost of homeowners insurance is soaring in states where large outbreaks of tornadoes are becoming more common. But it's hail — not tornadoes — that are the biggest concern for insurers in the middle of the country" - @npr.org's @michaelcopley1.bsky.social www.npr.org/2025/05/23/n...

Scoop from @byscottdance.com: As the National Weather Service scrambles to fill vacancies, staffing at four local forecast offices is so critical that they are no longer operating 24-7. More offices are expected to follow soon. www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2025...

Strong rebuke of NOAA fisheries job cuts from fishing industry commenter John Sackton. Full article here [paywall]: www.seafoodnews.com/Story/130626...

The National Weather Service seeks to fill 155 "critical" vacancies ahead of Hurricane Season, through internal transfers between offices. The step illustrates how depleted the agency's ranks are at particular posts around the U.S. www.cnn.com/2025/05/14/w...