On the different scenarios of how the war in Ukraine may develop. Includes an analysis of Russia's capacity to continue the war. The most realistic scenario - a prolonged conflict of low intensity. www.csis.org/analysis/rus...

Wow. I don't remember if I ever saw that big of a shift in public opinion in just one year. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/11/u... "The recent shift in attitudes about immigration has been driven primarily by Republicans,

www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u... "That Mr. Rubio was in El Salvador on the day of U.S.A.I.D.’s demise carried a particular resonance.

My team and I at the Crowd Counting Consortium (@[email protected], Soha Hammam, & Chris Shay) have a new piece out: wagingnonviolence.org/2025/06/amer.... In it, we show that through May 2025, the size and scale of anti-Trump protests have dwarfed those in 2017. 🧵

For those who did not make it to my book talk on April 1st, I will be doing it again tomorrow at the Stanford's CDDRL @ noon Pacific Time. Stanford people - see you in person; everyone else can join via Zoom. @stanfordcddrl.bsky.social cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/events/socia...

I'm far from saying that the US is like Russia, but it seems that in all countries, government funds and accreditation/certification are the sticks used by autocrats to tame universities. Kudos to Harvard for standing up to this. Universities have the power! edition.cnn.com/2025/04/16/u...

Ask Trump whether he's still convinced Pu wants peace.

Another year of programming to be proud of @umichDemocracy! ii.umich.edu/emerging-dem...

"The playbook begins with a recognition that capitulation is doomed." www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/o...

He never knew a day of peace

"Liu, who said she was already in New York when she received the call, told CTV News that she was told that the slides about Gaza “could be perceived as antisemitic” and that the USAID slides might be perceived as “anti-governmental”." www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...

This was….five months ago

This one is has nothing to do with peace talks. Putin signs those twice a year. Every year

Dear all - if you're free at lunchtime (EST) tomorrow (April 1), come or connect to my book talk at the University of Michigan Center for Emerging Democracies! THIS IS NOT A JOKE! Zoom registration link: myumi.ch/qV3kX Also, check out the book in your library: global.oup.com/academic/pro...

I guess we should now be waiting for executive orders against automakers who raise prices? By the way, very happy to see that some law firms choose to fight rather than concede. www.wsj.com/business/aut...

"The data suggest that the swing in young adults voting for Trump did not reflect a major shift in ideology. ... the swing seems to have resulted from moderate-to-somewhat-liberal young voters deciding to bet on Mr.Trump out of concern about the state of the economy.. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/26/o...

Trump's talk about the US taking control of Ukraine's nuclear facilities has nothing to do with peace-making. Most likely, it's joint effort by Ru and the US to make sure Ukraine cannot develop its own nuclear deterrent. A Budapest Memorandum 2 proposal, if you will, w more useless assurances.

Chart of cumulative protests reported from Jan 22 - Feb 28, 2017 vs 2025:

Clean your devices before crossing the US border, ladies and gentlemen. Probably even if you are US citizens. This is a 101 survival skill under autocracy; time to learn it. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/w...

Well, the U.S. deserves it. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/19/a...

1/🧵 Judges across ideological lines are ruling against Trump at strikingly similar rates (84% liberal, 86% centrist, 82% conservative). This isn't partisan opposition to Trump—it's the judiciary functioning as intended by cutting across partisan lines to uphold the Constitution.

Some very detailed polling data here. Worth reading/watching. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/18/o...

How many think Trump’s annexation talk about Canada is about America feeling insecure and fearing an attack by Canada? No one? That’s how ridiculous all the talk about Russia fearing an attack by Ukraine has been but way too many have fallen for it.

It is important to fight these cases in court. Decisions may be weakly enforced, but the information revealed in discovery creates bad press and autocrats hate bad press. Not fighting will damage morale and only encourage more assaults. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/n...

Was talking to a dean at a top 🇺🇸 university (not mine) in January. He said the 2 red lines would be attacks on academic freedoms & on our international students. These lines have obv been crossed, & the actual strategy seems to be keeping one's head down & hoping the bad people won’t come for us.

Good headline. I want to see similarly honest and straightforward headlines about Putin when we discuss the lying and scheming he tries to pass for diplomacy.

"In a new YouGov poll, 48 percent of Americans think the economy is getting worse, up from 37 percent at the start of Trump's second term. Forty-seven percent expect higher inflation in six months — more than twice the share six months ago." open.substack.com/pub/robertre...

"You get a picture of an administration that wants to use tariffs to bring back the low-wage, low-technology industries of the past, while killing policies promoting the industries of the future." open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

A very useful read on how Social Security works. open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...

The nations top research universities (R1) are under assault by the Trump administration. Pitts has paused all PhD admissions for next year. Many R1 schools are also Division 1 NCAA schools. All SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big 12, Ivy League schools. Suspend sports and explain it is due to Musk, Trump

ICYMI www.politico.com/news/2025/03...

The Trump administration has terminated $800 million in grants to Johns Hopkins University, spurring the nation’s top spender on research and development to plan layoffs and cancel health projects

www.404media.co/the-200-site... It's only a couple of small steps from student visa holders to US citizens.

"An analysis by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy found that in 2022, undocumented immigrants contributed more than $25 billion in Social Security taxes. Those funds effectively act as a subsidy for American beneficiaries." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/11/u...

NASA begins cutting staff and eliminating three offices, marking the start of a mandated reduction in force at the space agency under Elon Musk’s directive. Gotta keep SpaceX afloat, right? Conflict of interest!

ICYMI: Trump has dropped investigations and enforcement actions against 89 lawbreaking corporations, including: -42 cases at the CFPB -15 cases at the DOJ -6 cases at the EEOC -7 crypto cases at the SEC It's a new golden age for corporate criminals.

To those who just saw me on Nicolle Wallace and asked how you can help Ukrainians, here are two organizations that I highly recommend: superhumans.com/en/ novaukraine.org

A few days ago, I posted about how authoritarian leaders fear student activism. I wrote a new article dives much deeper into this pattern – and why Trump's recent threats are so revealing. It's a global, historical phenomenon. (Short 🧵⬇️)

Just got an email from the Fulbright Association. As of right now, funding has been cut off to 12,500 US citizens currently abroad and and more than 7,400 foreigner scholars and students in the United States

Time to rebrand foreign aid. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/08/s...

Yes, where are they? The university presidents of 🇺🇸? Why are they not loudly & collectively & publicly calling out the existential & authoritarian threats to the entire 🇺🇸 system of higher education? Again, we know exactly how the quiet, don't rock the boat strategy fails: bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Multipliers are real

Institutional autonomy from state coercion is and always has been the core of academic freedom.

"Within some organizations, there are no staff members left to complete the survey." www.nytimes.com/2025/03/06/h...

I don’t know who needs a reminder but Tymoshenko has max 4-5% of the vote Go to link for report ibifukraine.com/2025/02/19/i... Only a sample of 60+ Qs we regularly ask…

My colleague @stevevladeck.bsky.social points out the contrast between Samual Alito's dissent this morning supporting presidential autonomy from courts and his dissent in 2022 when Biden was president, arguing courts could dictate immigration enforcement. www.stevevladeck.com/p/129-untang...

Trump touted his admin's "Make America Healthy Again" agenda during yesterday's address. What he didn't say is that the EPA plans to drop a lawsuit against a chemical manufacturer whose emissions fueled pollution and health problems in Louisiana's "Cancer Alley." Hello?