First problem: there is absolutely no certainty that ”a conflict now” would stay within these limits. Second problem: even if it did, virtually no European country has sufficient IAMD, let alone counter drone capability. Third problem: Trump. Europe isn’t ready yet, but will be.

Your occasional weary reminder that airport disruption using drones, as in Copenhagen and Oslo overnight, is not a startling new "hybrid warfare" development but one Europe has had more than a decade to think about and find a viable solution to. But apparently didn't. ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018...

Mario Draghi & Christine Lagarde are pleading with Europeans to wake up and realise federalism is the only way to survive in this new strongman era But Europe's centrist Atlanticist establishment won't listen, & nationalists are winning the argument lamatinaleeuropeenne.substack.com/p/le-mur-nat...

Also why the battle against the new right isn't and shouldn't be about policy detail. For them it is an existential battle. We are the enemy. Whether you can legally do something or not really isn't relevant to survival.

Where Reform is headed is very much in line with the new right, that in order to save western democracy it must be destroyed. Patriotism as nihilism. Culture wars to become real ones. Very dangerous stuff.

Ukraine: Government tries to neuter anti-corruption agency. Result: biggest protests since full-scale Russian invasion. US: As close to an open-and-shut case of corruption by a public servant as you can get. Result: crickets.

The White House has chosen a truly extremist step that will kneecap American research and innovation. It is an additional bomb dropped on the US higher education system, illegally and recklessly, that will end up harming every Conservative and Liberal American.

The more the Trump administration prevaricates, the less influence it has over its allies, because the latter become increasingly convinced the US won't do anything in any event, so there is little downside to confronting Russia now while it is relatively weak.

Shoot. Them. Down.

By refusing to materially respond to Russia’s repeated incursions into Allied airspace, NATO is inviting tragedy. Unless it faces meaningful consequences for these provocations, Moscow will soon (“accidentally”) move on to actual strikes, perhaps even at civilian targets.

On this, helpful map by @euractiv.com on (mostly Western) European countries now supporting Poland as part of 'Eastern Sentry'. Definitely tangible support, though still burdened with the question on whether fighter planes are the right tool to deter drone incursions.

Respond -- and do it asymmetrically, hitting them where it hurts. Sanction the ships in the shadow fleet. End oil sales to EU countries. Start enforcing financial sector sanctions better & keep better track of dual-use technology controls.

Do it!

Stephen Miran is now on the Fed board of governors. See if you can spot his vote on what should be done to interest rates. Ironic, given how Trump was elected partly bc of voter dissatisfaction with inflation. (h/t @robarmstrong.bsky.social)

No mincing of words in this @ecfr.eu policy brief on the China-Russia relationship ecfr.eu/publication/...

Trump: Throws an ally (Qatar) casually under an Israeli bus All other allies:

I’m particularly tired to read that it was also a European failure not to have sat at the table in Alaska. The very same analysts would’ve bashed Europe for holding Trump’s hand had they gone to Alaska. Also there was 0 reason for Europe to legitimise the nothingburger charade

How do serious outlets let through their editing process articles that claim that the Poland drone attack ”led to little more than statements of concern”. The very same day multiple European allies pledged to deploy more support to Poland and it was formalised as Eastern Sentry 2 days later

'We should, like Humboldt, pay a bit more attention to the data.' But also recognise that the data alone won't sway most minds. Stories too matter, and are richly available: eastangliabylines.co.uk/immigration/...

cato institute analysis of murders by political ideology since 1975, excluding 9/11

Yeah, so this is what happens when you brag that you were "the only one to know" that your ally was about to attack another ally of yours. With such minimal understanding of the value of reputation, it beggars belief that Trump has managed to get where he has and not sputtered out decades ago.

"You can be English with roots that stretch back a 1,000 years, but you can also be English and look like me". About time. Need much more of this, and need the PM to come out and say it and challenge the politicians and media who've brought us here - not just Musk www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

The summer is over - and for about 16,600 people across 854 European cities that doesn't mean autumn comes, but death. People who would still be alive if it wasn't for our burning of fossil fuels. - New study with @lshtm.bsky.social www.imperial.ac.uk/grantham/pub...

Good piece on taxing the wealth of the hyper-rich. We have more and more multi-billionaires, and an increasingly pressing need for public funds. But the hyper-rich can afford armies of lawyers and accountants, and can readily move anywhere they want, to avoid any taxes.

As much as I hate to bring up US domestic politics, this is (a) awful, and (b) I understand factually completely backwards, as 'the left' is much less represented among perpetrators of political violence. JFC.

Mario Draghi on rising weaponisation: "So far, Europe's response has fallen into two traps: uncoordinated national efforts or blind faith that market forces will build new sectors. The first can never deliver scale. The second is impossible when others distort markets and tilt the playing field."

Mario Draghi decries the EU's slowness to act. "Sometimes, inertia is even presented as respect for the rule of law. That is complacency. Competitors in the US and China are far less constrained, even when acting within the law. To carry on as usual is to resign ourselves to falling behind."

Elsevier has dismissed Richard Tol as editor of the highly successful "Energy Economics". His account of the alleged and the actual reasons casts an even darker shadow over the academic publishing business.

All is not well at Elsevier richardtol.substack.com/p/fraud-and-...

The US is now treating its supposed allies worse than their adversaries. Demonstrating how NO promises can be trusted. Good luck (not) picking a fight with everyone at the same time.

This here is a fun one.

Excellent by @martinsandbu.ft.com. The insistence on unanimity means the EU, collectively, punches below its weight.

1. What does a Cold War-era game theory problem known as the silent duel have to do with high-risk research strategies, publication in Cell/Nature/Science glamor journals, and the academic job market? Kevin Gross and I tackle these questions in our latest arXiv preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2509.06718

This is Musk actively inciting political violence.

A friend of mine was on Charlie Kirk's "watch list" of Black professors. She received so many death and rape threats that her university offered her a security detail for the walk to class. This is Kirk's legacy. You would never know it from reading all of these legacy newspaper op-eds about him.

...yep, definitely testing NATO integrity now. NATO needs to respond in a smart (and asymmetric) way. Economic sanctions first, as that is the weak point for the Kremlin. Further support of Ukrainian air defence capability, perhaps tighter joint development of these, could be useful?

That the UK government continues to post on X is not only a moral failure, but strategically incompetent. As is not blocking foreign funding of UK politics

Ahahahaha! Fed independence is perhaps saved, for now, bc of the incompetence of the Trump hacks.

A sneering midwit with inherited wealth got the facts wrong, and accused an honest public servant—Lisa Cook—of fraud. His meddling created a crisis well beyond his portfolio, undermining the Fed. Bill Pulte can do the right thing and resign. If merit still matters, he should be fired.

Not antifa, then. Just good old fa. Looking forward to Trump saying he will "beat the hell out of radical [right] lunatics".

Dr. Kyle Meng, UC Santa Barbara: “This is the most important U.S. climate policy for the foreseeable future. These bills send a signal that California is doubling down on its climate commitments for the next two decades with a practical approach that meets both climate and affordability goals.”

I'm just going to say: surprise-fucking-surprise.

Update: Civil War cancelled due to shooter being demographically uncooperative

These two paragraphs, these two statements one after the other is quite something.

Like, Justin Webb is a BBC presenter sharing the false idea that BlueSky was celebrating Kirk's death despite not being on BlueSky (unless he has a burner). He is picking it up from X rather than from direct experience. bsky.app/profile/robe...

Love this. I am 💯 with Blyth: more than half of my writing time is done in frustration with something I observe and think about, and the reason I keep on going despite all the rejections in academia/life is that I can’t stop being pissed off about smtg and want to make the world a tiny bit better.

The emotional video from @frankyandcoen.bsky.social Yarova, Donetsk region: before and after the slaughter of 25 people, most elderly waiting for their pension.

Wow. The US Energy Department has withdrawn its scam climate report and disbanded its „Climate Working Group“ in order to dodge a law suit against the scam. They must have realized that this scam report by a few „climate skeptics“ is indefensible nonsense. subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2025...