This’ll generate debate, and also comes at an awkward time given that US is processing its own GWOT history - with some convinced that we didn’t lose because of our inability to tie operations to strategy, but because we didn’t kill enough people.

Nice piece. And gets to the heart of the dilemma that Australia hasn’t got an easy formula for: are we more likely to have influence by keeping these conversations private or making them public?

The Philippines’ arbitral tribunal against China was genius for its potential to build support and shape how the SCS is discussed - even if Duterte squandered it. Those days almost feel quaint now given current pressures on international law. To see Duterte before the ICC still blows my mind.

Not sure exactly what airspace was involved, but this is probably a good reminder that China isn’t the only entity that sees freedom of navigation and overflight norms different than us. (It’s the only one that uses coercion and dangerous tactics to make the point though).

I was asked to lead a Southeast Asia team in government once and laughed at my boss who said ‘we’ve rediscovered Asia, so you’ll have resources.’ I’d heard that before. Government is invested now, but we shouldn’t conflate strong official ties with depth where it counts: people and economies.

To use Chinese police to threaten delivery drivers in Australia would tell us something about levels of confidence and impunity - and what else the state would be willing to do if the stakes for it were higher.

New Zealand sending a defence adviser (DA) to India is good news. Like Australia, it wants more 🇮🇳defence engagement in our neighbourhood. This may ease some friction for India’s DA in Canberra too (cross-accredited to NZ and one or more Pacific Island countries). ipdefenseforum.com/2026/02/indi...

I agree that this won’t be an ironclad military alliance. But I hope media doesn’t therefore miss its larger significance: solidifying a rhythm of defence cooperation, making it more resilient to inevitable ups and downs in the political relationship. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-02...

I found the article’s opening anecdote interesting. Ideally the military and government would agree to some proposed escalations of force for baseline scenarios in advance, freeing up brain space (and time) to consider trickier scenarios. Easier said than done though.

Why was this so excellent

#Myanmar’s junta just concluded the third phase of its deeply unfair and unrepresentative elections, manufactured to ensure the military’s continued political control. I wrote about the sham elections for @asiapolicy.asiasociety.org’s Ballot Box series here: asiasociety.org/policy-insti...

Happy Republic Day India. The 26th doesn’t unify Australia in the way it does India. But it gives us an opportunity to reflect on the 🇦🇺🇮🇳 relationship. And on the contributions of Indian Australians. I’m grateful for both. m.youtube.com/watch?v=QoRp...

As Teesta Prakash reminds me, I’m a dork and a troglodyte - so no surprise I hadn’t heard of Heated Rivalry. But she and Mikaela Lui make some really important observations, especially for Australia. We haven’t invested in soft power as much as we should. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Tired of playing Atrocity Gotcha, where if you condemn one atrocity you are interrogated about whether you have condemned all atrocities to the precisely correct scale

It hardly seems urgent given everything else happening right now. But I’ve seen suggestions online that Australia provokes China with spy planes. Here’s my attempt to ground the conversation a little. open.substack.com/pub/kimherio...

Eep www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

It feels almost redundant to forward on this platform - it’s really twitter that’s awash with bizarre and misleading reports following the attack in Bondi. Still though.

Per NY Times’s Michael Grynbaum on X, this is Sharyn Alfonsi’s email to her “60 Minutes” colleagues in full:

I’m cringing so hard it hurts.

A two-year-old clip is being misrepresented to suggest a group of Muslims was filmed in Sydney celebrating the Bondi Beach terror attack. www.aap.com.au/factcheck/ol...

This is true, I think. Our overuse of jargon can also obscure lazy thinking. And as a corollary, it’s not helpful that the loudest voices expressing concern about China’s military build up are often easy to write off as conservative boomer types. We can do better.

This is an important point. Rule of law rhetoric matters, but has diminishing returns if it’s the only thing we centre our approach on.

A roundup of some of my initial reflections in the media on the new Australia-Indonesia Bilateral Security Treaty. In short: a really positive development, and frankly, an exciting one. Lots of water to go under the bridge, ofc, but a big step forward in the relationship. 🧵

You probably know what a FONOP is. But do you really? open.substack.com/pub/kimherio...

"Sources at Parliament, who wouldn’t speak on the record for fear of retribution, said the letter ...revealed how China’s government monitors New Zealanders ...they believe China is sending people to spy on events organised by Kiwi supporters of Taiwan."

Depressing to see that Indian communities in Australia are now being targeted with these phone scams, which have long been a problem for Chinese communities, including international students. This message has been posted on the Indian High Commission's website.

Damn bro

It's such a treat to be an outsider interested in the Philippines — the deeper and deeper you get to know the country the more fascinating it becomes. I hope this conversation helps other Australians get their bearings, especially with a big few years on the horizon.

This month’s Australia India Institute defence conclave was a chance to explore ideas speculatively - not to predict the future, but to scan what shifts might shape 🇦🇺🇮🇳 defence cooperation over the next five years. Some interesting themes emerged 👇

Some initial thoughts following the Indian defence minister’s visit to Australia: open.substack.com/pub/kimherio...

The South Korean Ministry of Defense has awarded medals of merit to 11 officers for disobeying direct orders of superiors during the martial law fiasco, orders that they deemed to be contrary to the constitution and endangerment to democracy. www.chosun.com/english/nati...

An important read. It seems like we’re forever warning that Indo-Pacific security is becoming more fraught - but when it comes to equipping Australians to navigate that complexity (by fostering language training among other things), we continually fall short. www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpre...

Opinion | I’ve dedicated my career to promoting free speech on college campuses. Here’s why the murder of a red state college dropout by another red state college dropout means it’s time to fire liberal professors in blue states.

As an Australian-Indian, I’m furious at the racism playing out on a national stage. It is exhausting | Zoya Patel

Historical pictures don't speak for themselves. A few years ago, I unpacked a lithograph relating to Tasmania's "Black War" of the 1820s and 1830s. The Australian War Memorial now has it up on the website of the new mag, "WM": wm.awm.gov.au/read/painted...

Just finished Dive! by @mikecarlton01.bsky.social - about Australian submariners and their contributions. It’s worth a read. And timely given the renewed interest in the RAN. For a long time our image of ‘defence’ was a soldier carrying a rifle. Perhaps that’s changing.

Revisiting interests from a lifetime ago: kimheriotdarragh.substack.com/p/transgende...

“The extensive hunt for the alleged mole [in MI6], called Operation Wedlock, was run by…MI5, which deployed a team of up to 35 surveillance, planning and desk officers [and] lasted in one form or another for up to 20 years” www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Happening tomorrow!

What lessons should Australia learn from India’s recent military clash with Pakistan? I think there are a few. If you’re in Hobart on 26 June, hope you can join! aiiatas.glueup.com/event/26-jun...

'Unlike homogeneous airpower, the source code of heterogeneous airpower is mostly open, allowing new military and civilian developments to rapidly plug and play within it,' writes Peter Layton.

So far, deportations haven't dramatically spiked under Trump, writes @alibreland.bsky.social. But the administration’s immigration tactics are so shocking, callous, and inescapable that they have generated the appearance of mass deportations.

I’ve found the parade criticism™ fascinating and maybe even a little disappointing, and this comes from someone who would have preferred the Army not to be put in this position in the first place. 1/

The US Army parade was embarrassing for a lot of reasons. But I didn’t expect the volume of armchair warriors who would point at footage of Army Rangers doing lame drill and tell the world with all the confidence of a toddler that these soldiers don’t have unit cohesion or military credibility.

If you’re in Melbourne on 17 June, hope you can join us for this!

I’m no political scientist; I found this useful and interesting, and broadly tracks with how a generalist defence analyst might think about factors increasing or reducing the chances of unintended or escalating violence. Worth reading the whole thing I think.

#Thailand 's military said it is ready to launch a "high-level operation" to counter any violation of its sovereignty, in the strongest words yet in a simmering border dispute with #Cambodia that re-erupted with a deadly clash last week.

I was asked elsewhere why Australia should maintain defence relationship with Pakistan, a sponsor of terrorism. I think 🇦🇺should further wind down its already modest cooperation there, but I’d like to contextualise what defence cooperation is from the ground up.

Australian Deputy PM Marles’ visit to India seemed like a good time for Dr Gaurav Saini and I to lay out some of our thoughts on 🇦🇺🇮🇳 defence cooperation for @thehindu.com. Link here: www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-e...