'AGI is only a few years away, many experts say. McGregor and Yampolskiy agreed that it could be achieved not with some necessary technical breakthroughs but basically by scaling up the computing resources that are being made available to train AI models,' write ASPI staff.

'Unless US leaders can consistently demonstrate that alliance commitments transcend transactional politics, the US’s closest Indo‑Pacific allies will continue to plan for a future in which US support is essential—but not guaranteed,' writes Frank Rose.

'The Indo-Pacific is now the primary theatre of strategic competition and potential conflict for the United States. China’s accelerating military modernisation and the increasing risk to Taiwan demand a decisive shift in American defence organisation and planning,' writes Marco J Lyons.

ASPI has launched Australia’s first dedicated Polar Security Program. ❄️🌏 The program will kick off with a series of issue briefs to inform public debate and national understanding of Australia’s polar interests. Learn more ➡️ bit.ly/3MPY7XI

'This ambitious initiative is designed to position Australia at the forefront of understanding, anticipating and shaping the security dynamics of the world’s coldest and most contested regions,' writes Elizabeth Buchanan.

'If Chinese forces can strike with precision even in a saturated electromagnetic-warfare environment, US and allied tools for managing escalation lose credibility,' writes William McDowall.

The decision by the ASIS to feature its director-general and operational officers on the Seize the Yay podcast marks a deliberate shift towards public transparency, an unprecedented move for Australia’s most secretive intelligence agency,' writes Meg Tapia.

'Authoritarian pressure is designed to be unendurable. That’s its strategic purpose. The task for democracies is not to make that external pressure feel bearable; it is to make it futile,' write Nathan Attrill and Bethany Allen.

'If ASD and the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation believe Bluetooth is risky enough to disable in sensitive settings, senior officials should model that judgment in public,' writes Isaac Sharp.

'One thing I’ve come to accept at times like this is that it’s okay—indeed often better—to keep certain thoughts to yourself, at least while people’s pain is so raw and the atmosphere so combustible,' writes David Wroe.

'Clear, factual communication stabilises public sentiment, limits misinformation, and reinforces trust in institutions. This is not a secondary consideration; it’s a core element of effective national security,' writes John Coyne.

'Together with the increased range requirement, the speaker suggested, use of such big weapons would create a need for a larger combat aircraft type to succeed the Super Hornet and Growler, currently expected to retire in 2040 to 2045,' writes @valkstrategy.bsky.social.

'Japanese and Australian interests overlap most substantially in Melanesia. The case for coordination is greatest in PNG and Solomon Islands, which both bracket or run parallel to the key SLOC between the east coast of Australia and Japan, forming a chokepoint,' writes Alex Bristow.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In ‘Japan–Australia defence cooperation in the Pacific: The case for a partial division of labour’, Alex Bristow urges Australia and Japan to begin developing joint plans for a partial wartime division of labour in the Pacific to protect critical SLOCs. 🔖 Read more: bit.ly/4aRdusO

'In a week that has seen much handwringing over the choice of wording in the latest US national security strategy, it is evident that messaging still matters,' writes Justin Bassi.

'When traditional logistical routes are compromised or interdicted, ghost fleet operations could provide an indispensable lifeline for critical resupply, ensuring that forces can maintain their operational tempo and effectiveness,' writes Andrew Rolander.

'Australia’s spending on the Boeing MQ-28A Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft is set to soar to new heights after a successful test in which the fighter-like drone demonstrated its ability to shoot down an aerial target,' writes Malcolm Davis.

'Through the Global Gateway initiative, the EU is delivering sustainable, high-quality infrastructure with partners across the Indo-Pacific, leveraging public and private investment with high environmental and governance standards,' writes Gabriele Visentin.

NEW PODCAST 🎤 On the sidelines of #TSD2025, ASPI's David Wroe spoke with global AI safety expert Dr Roman Yampolskiy. The pair discussed AI safety and risks, the recent Genesis Mission announcement out of the United States, and the opportunities that AI presents. 📺 Watch here ➡️ bit.ly/4rSpSPF

'The danger in such a strategy is that India will end up satisfying nobody. Russia may be irritated that India is not supporting it fully; others may consider that India has gone too far,' writes Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan.

'Like other democracies, Japan particularly grapples with disinformation during elections, when false narratives can influence voter behaviour,' writes Takahiko Kei.

'Don’t despair but don’t relax. It was a profoundly important message delivered last week by Australia’s director-general of national intelligence, Andrew Shearer,' writes Justin Bassi.

'The defensive battle cannot lag the offensive battle, and Australia needs greater investment in counter-drone capabilities. Defence should pay for systems that offer low cost per shot, such as directed-energy weapons and electromagnetic warfare,' writes Malcolm Davis.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In ‘Aligning for advantage: Integrating autonomous systems into the Australian Defence Force’, Dr Malcolm Davis argues that Australia must invest in new robotic and autonomous systems to build urgently needed combat mass and resilience. 🔖 Read the report: bit.ly/4rFN8jw

‘Adversaries are already exploiting that gap, pairing automation with disinformation and electronic warfare to accelerate reconnaissance, generate false targets and overwhelm human operators,’ writes Jason Van der Schyff.

'Northern Australia doesn’t need more statements about its potential. It needs funding programs that land, processes that move, and decisions that keep pace with the ambition already in motion,' writes Anna Alexander.

'It’s not clear how this reorganisation will lead to Defence acquiring more capability, faster, at lower cost and at the same time be more responsive to rapid change in military technology and the threat environment,' writes Malcolm Davis.

'Democratic governments should coordinate to establish global standards that ban undisclosed political censorship, prioritise open and inspectable AI systems and restrict the export of surveillance and opinion-shaping technologies,' write Bethany Allen, Nathan Attrill and Fergus Ryan.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In ‘The party’s AI,’ Fergus Ryan and Bethany Allen et al. reveal the rise of generative AI is transforming China’s state control system into a precision instrument for managing its population and targeting groups at home and abroad. 🔖 Read it here: bit.ly/4pFROnR

NEW TSD SPEAKERS 🔊 We're pleased to welcome Michael Biercuk, Dr Aruna Sathanapally, David Speers and 'Esau Lepa 'i Matangi Tupou to the Sydney Dialogue lineup! 🗓️ With only a few days to go until this year's event, be sure to secure your ticket before sales close 👉 bit.ly/4pdQxEO

'High-performance computing at scale requires integrated power systems, specialised cooling plants, sovereign cyber architecture, trained personnel and robust data-sovereignty frameworks,' writes John Coyne.

'Viewed as a bloc, the European Union remains a significant force, leading in high-impact research in four of the 74 technologies and breaking the US–China dominance,' write Jenny Wong-Leung, Stephan Robin and Linus Cohen.

🚨 NOW LIVE 🚨 ASPI's 2025 Critical Technology Tracker update has landed. The Tech Tracker is the go-to resource for understanding how emerging technologies shape national security and economic advantage. Explore new technologies, emerging trends and refreshed global datasets 👉 bit.ly/4pbjxx1

Generous account of our new @aspi-org.bsky.social @defenceaustralia.bsky.social report "Australian Public and Institutional Responses to Taiwan Strait Crises" from Paul Monk in The Australian, with important insights into facing realities of Beijing's threats against the Taiwanese.

'Australia and the European Union have established an impressive web of agreements and frameworks over the past two years to strengthen critical-minerals cooperation,' writes Alice Wai.

'Fuel security is not an energy policy issue. It is a national security requirement. It underpins Defence readiness, food supply, transport, emergency response and economic stability,' writes John Coyne.

'Europe’s engagement in the region matters deeply, not only for its own interests, but also for the global balance of power amid strategic competition between the United States and China,' write Gabriele Abbondanza and Gorana Grgic.

🔔 NEW TSD SPEAKERS 🔔 We're pleased to announce that Hwang Sunghoon, Alexander Babuta and You-Hao Lai will join the speaker lineup at the Sydney Dialogue next week! This year's event will tackle AI, cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, quantum and much more. 🎟️ Limited tickets remain: bit.ly/4oGwHSe

'A focus on excellence would re-centre reform on measurable outcomes, continuous improvement and learning systems that make government smarter with every iteration,' writes John Coyne.

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 ASPI's new compendium 'North of 26° south and the security of Australia: Views from The Strategist, Volume 12', examines key policy challenges facing the north and offers practical options to bolster security, economic prosperity and social development. 🔖: bit.ly/48pV1B1

'The United States and China are not the only ones who are designing great range into their upcoming combat aircraft. Britain, Italy and Japan have made the same decision,' writes Bill Sweetman.

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're pleased to announce that Janet Egan from @cnas.bsky.social, Mehran Gul, author of The New Geography of Innovation, and Olivia Shen from @usstudiescentre.bsky.social will join us as speakers at #TSD2025 next week! 🎟️ Purchase your ticket here ➡️ bit.ly/43RkvWw

'Digital safety is a measure of how well we protect rights and trust in the digital age. Every woman deserves to be safe in her home, in her community and on her screen,' write Julie Inman Grant and Pio Smith.

'China and Russia need to demonstrate that they are responsible stakeholders in regional and global affairs. It is their behaviour to which the US, as well as others in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, are responding with their own countermeasures,' writes Rajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan.

🔔 NEW TSD SPEAKERS 🔔 We're thrilled to announce that @anthropic.com's Daisy McGregor, the ASFA's Mary Delahunty and Keio University's Michito Tsuruoka, will speak at the Sydney Dialogue next week! Be part of the region’s leading discussion on tech and security 🌏. 🎟️ Tickets: bit.ly/4oGwHSe

'Strategy can’t deliver certainty; it offers coherence amid chaos, and that message struggles in an environment that increasingly prizes conflict over comprehension. But the demand for coherence has only grown as the world has become more volatile,' writes John Coyne.

'The success of Australia’s Pacific engagement will not be measured by visits or announcements, but by the continuity and quality of what we deliver together. Northern Australia is already the bridge through which much of this interaction flows,' writes Anna Alexander.

'Despite our famed resilience against natural disasters, Australia still struggles to take catastrophic risk seriously. In this volatile security environment, the divide between short-term comfort and meaningful long-term preparedness remains worryingly wide,' writes Marc Ablong.

'Australia needs to balance alliance and autonomy. The Force Design Update locks US presence into the Indo-Pacific for the long term, but it also tests the depth of Australia’s control within that partnership,' writes John Coyne.

🚨 NEW TSD SPEAKER 🚨 We're looking forward to welcoming Jessica Hunter, 🇦🇺's Ambassador for Cyber Affairs and Critical Technology, to #TSD2025 on 4-5 December! Jessica will join a panel exploring how the Indo-Pacific is adopting and integrating digital technologies. 🎟️ Tickets 👉 bit.ly/4oGwHSe