EVENT ALERT 📌 Join ASPI on 14 September in Canberra for a special Sydney Dialogue AI Masterclass. Hear from political leaders, senior officials and industry experts as they explore the strategic, economic and security implications of AI. 🔗 Register now ➡️ /bit.ly/4aEWpld

NEW REPORT 🔊 In ‘Northern Australia's strategic operating system’, ASPI Non-Resident Fellow Sally Henderson examines how northern 🇦🇺's industries, infrastructure, supply chains & communities underpin 🇦🇺's economic security, defence posture & national resilience. 🔖 Read the report: bit.ly/4p71Ejq

'Resilience in northern Australia cannot rest on aspiration or episodic investment. It must rest on continuity,' writes Sally Henderson.

'The central strategic challenge confronting the US and its allies in the Indo-Pacific today is the rise of China and its rapid, largely unconstrained nuclear buildup,' writes Frank Rose.

NEW PODCAST 🎤 Ahead of starting his new role at OpenAI, Dean Ball joined ASPI's David Wroe on Stop the World to discuss AI governance, safeguards for frontier models, his outlook on AI and power, and the opportunities for middle powers like Australia. 🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/44h5RaY

'Australia has invested heavily in Pacific partnerships and maritime awareness. That work remains important but is largely designed for a less crowded environment,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

'Washington’s response has remained limited to expressing concern from its representative office in Taipei, which may lead Beijing to conclude that it can keep pushing without endangering its relationship of constructive strategic stability with the US,' writes Thijs Stegeman.

'This test seems to contradict China’s usual and very effective narrative in the Pacific, one in which it portrays itself as an advocate for ordinary islanders,' writes Eric Frecon.

'A permanent presence from Chinese law enforcement vessels in Taiwan’s eastern seas will also make it much easier for China to upgrade these patrols into a quarantine encircling Taiwan,' writes Jane Rickards.

'It’s almost as if the KMT specifically identified the initiatives that would’ve been most helpful in Taiwan’s long, uneven effort to transform itself into a veritable indigestible hedgehog,' writes David Axe.

'As deterrence becomes the organising logic of Australia’s defence strategy, greater precision in how we connect concepts such as national defence, self-reliance and military power is more than semantics,' writes Courtney Stewart.

'New job postings from DeepSeek show the Chinese AI lab plans to build an agentic model that can find vulnerabilities in code,' writes Alex Colville.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In ‘Primed for Pressure’, @johncoyne14.bsky.social and Raelene Lockhorst argue 🇦🇺 lacks a practical framework to assess whether northern defence can sustain operations under contested conditions and introduce a Preparedness, Resilience and Redundancy Scorecard. 🔖 : bit.ly/4v6TPM0

'A runway without fuel is a carpark. A port without a maintenance workforce is a jetty. Operational effectiveness emerges from the interaction of systems, not from the performance of individual assets in isolation,' write John Coyne and Raelene Lockhorst.

'The idea of compromising hostile emitters at light-speed is attractive, but the time that it has taken to field systems shows that it’s not simple,' writes Bill Sweetman.

'We are racing to embed AI into critical government services and industries. Once it runs the machinery of the state, a foreign off-switch becomes a vulnerability,' writes Dean Dell'Orso.

'While both Russia and Ukraine are experimenting with UGVs, Ukraine has been the more ambitious adopter, integrating robotic systems into logistics, casualty evacuation, engineering tasks and, increasingly, combat operations,' writes David Kirichenko.

'The West’s strategy to contain China behind island chains risks being bypassed,' writes Paula Allen.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️ ASPI Non-Resident Senior Fellow and Canadian defence, security and intelligence expert Raquel Garbers joins David Wroe on Stop the World to discuss the role of middle powers in an age of uncertainty and how like-minded states can strengthen their collective agency. 🎧: bit.ly/4v29eNK

'Australia’s position is not marginal. By combining research depth, software-driven ruggedisation and resource advantage, it is building leverage in a domain that will be central to future conflict in the Indo-Pacific,' writes Timothy Stevens.

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 ‘Australian security in an era of uncertainty’ brings together analysis from ASPI's Defence Strategy Program in The Strategist, covering deterrence, regional security, defence capability and the strategic challenges shaping Australia's security. 🔖 Read more: bit.ly/4eQ61e0

'The NCCTRC provides the institutional foundation. Now a broader system must be developed at the pace and scale the strategic environment demands,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

'Canberra should not overstate its weight in Africa. Australia’s advantage is the strategic value of a capable middle power with technical expertise, multilateral coalition-building and fewer colonial entanglements than many larger powers,' writes Christopher Burke.

'Rather than pursuing full intelligence integration, Australia and Japan should establish a bilateral counter-disinformation cell, initially operating virtually,' write ASPI staff and Japan Nexus Intelligence.

NEW ASPI EXPLAINER 🔊 ‘From common threats to narrative defence: An intelligence-led mission approach for Australia–Japan cooperation’ examines how Australia and Japan can strengthen cooperation against state-linked disinformation. 🔖 Read it here: bit.ly/3StAqaE

'Western Australia’s elevation of Defence West to a statutory authority is emblematic of the much larger national debate about how Australia organises power, capability and industry in an era of strategic competition,' writes Malcolm Davis.

Today I caught up on this episode of The Asia Chessboard from May with Mike Green & Justin Bassi @aspi-org.bsky.social reflecting on their previous careers as senior government advisors and now as the heads of two of Australia's largest national security think tanks.

'By the end of this year, we expect two-thirds of the royal commission’s recommendations will be implemented. But there is more work to do, and we are determined to keep the momentum going,' writes Matt Keogh.

'Estate divestment should be treated as a capability-linked reform process, not a standalone financial exercise,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In 'Synergies for the future', former ASPI Visiting Fellow Yeonsoo Kim examines how Australia and South Korea can build on their complementary strengths to develop a more resilient defence-industrial ecosystem and enhance collective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. 🔖: bit.ly/3Sji5gt

'Much of the Republican reaction can be read as disappointment that a historical opportunity to change the Iranian regime has not only been missed but also only emboldened an abominable regime,' writes Lester Munson.

'Though AUKUS and the South Korean nuclear submarine projects are proceeding on parallel tracks, Canberra and Seoul can still actively cooperate,' writes Euan Graham.

'Three potential reasons come to mind for readopting "US Pacific Command" and its abbreviation "PACOM", replacing "INDOPACOM". The first, and most likely, is to take the stated reason on face value. It’s a nod to history,' writes Colin Karotam.

'Under the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2013, China has steadily extended its presence across the Indian and Pacific oceans, building relationships and gaining access far from home waters,' write Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen.

NEW RESEARCH 📢 'Pressure Points Part 3: China in the Pacific and Indian oceans' by Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan & Linus Cohen details China's expanding Indo-Pacific security engagement and how Australia & regional partners can respond. 📚 Read report: bit.ly/4uOjzwF 🖥️ Explore website: bit.ly/4a1LlhO

'Since the Cold War ended, our attention has drifted away from nuclear weapons, but they again require our close attention and preoccupation,' writes Paul Dibb.

'All of these bodies are run by local people of Chinese ethnicity, not necessarily from China. The statements are issued only in Chinese, and all reflect CCP messaging from the China Council for the Promotion of Peaceful National Reunification,' writes Geoff Wade.

'Whatever the machinations in Washington, the latest move fits a trend towards greater national control of the most powerful technology the world has ever seen. Australia must do all it can to make sure we are not left behind,' writes David Wroe.

'In the decade ahead, the real test will not simply be whether agencies know more; it will be whether they can turn knowledge into real decision advantage before someone else does,' writes Chris Taylor.

NEW REPORT 📢 In 'Reading the room: Redesigning intelligence product for the AI Age' author Chris Taylor argues Australia's National Intelligence Community faces a growing mismatch between how intelligence is produced and consumed in an AI-shaped environment. 📚: bit.ly/4oxEKBN

'Australia faces a choice about where sovereignty is non-negotiable. In those domains –particularly at the critical layers of the AI ecosystem – reliance on negotiated access is a risk, not a strategy,' writes Jamie Morse.

'The United States, Europe and Australia increasingly demand supply-chain transparency, while China increasingly treats it as a national security issue,' writes John Coyne.

'The cancelling of RightsCon sets a global precedent where Beijing can pressure any smaller or middle power for hosting a convening it dislikes and succeed in having it shut down,' writes Shannon Van Sant.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️ This week on Stop the World David Wroe speaks to Nicole Giles, Deputy Director of Policy and Partnerships at Canada's Security Intelligence Service. They discuss the velocity, variety & volume of threats facing Canada and its allies and how governments can respond. 🎧: bit.ly/43rB5M2

'The task is finite and achievable: measure endurance honestly, set the threshold, and close the gaps that are too short. Australia should start the clock before someone else starts it for us,' writes Steven Camilleri.

NEW REPORT 📢 In 'Make stuff here...or else', author Steven Camilleri argues that public policy has pivoted to resilience 'but physical capability has not yet caught up'. The regularity of global shocks means a National Resilience Test is required. 📘: bit.ly/4okjWxi

'As a parent of a 15-year-old who is interested but has not studied international politics or Australia’s place in the world through his public schooling, I see much potential for big gains in tertiary education,' writes Andrew Forrest.

NEW REPORT 📢 In the report 'Darwin Dialogue 2026: From exposure to endurance', John Coyne, Francesca Ciuffetelli & Iris Reinhold share insights from discussions at the 2026 Darwin Dialogue and policy recommendations to help create resilient supply chains. 📕 Read it here: bit.ly/4vyIo0q

'Australia and its partners now understand the problem. The question confronting them is whether they can build the industrial systems required to solve it,' writes John Coyne.

'When even a quiet, reliable partner of nearly 200 years can be publicly threatened, the message is clear that today’s ally can quickly become tomorrow’s target,' writes Adel Abdel Ghafar.