'Peace talks began slowly at first, then all at once. But a durable peace will require changing Russia’s calculus, not Ukraine’s,' writes Tennyson Dearing.

'While concerns have been raised about Britain’s capacity to carry its burden in the submarine program, its involvement is not the riskiest aspect of Australia’s acquisition plan. The largest risks are closer to home,' writes Richard Gray.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️ In this episode, Luke de Pulford, Executive Director of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, unpacks how the cross-party network first came together, the challenges of holding 🇨🇳 to account & the impact of the 🇺🇸’ retreat from leadership of the liberal order. 🎧: bit.ly/3MIvn3v

'Canada may well cancel part of its 2022 order for 88 Lockheed Martin F-35As and replace them with Saab JAS 39E Gripens,' writes Bill Sweetman.

'While Australia’s defence strategy has moved north at speed, its permanent workforce has not,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

'Unsafe intercepts and close-quarter manoeuvres have, at least temporarily, declined in public reporting. That does not mean China’s presence is weaker. It means Beijing is choosing when and how to generate tension,' writes Joe Keary.

'An AUKUS visa would form part of the broader workforce strategy by granting skilled workers the mobility they need to transfer when and where projects are bottlenecked,' write Cherie Wright and Penny Harris.

'A strategically minded government with strong public support in Tokyo over the next few years presents a golden opportunity to promote the special strategic partnership between Australia and Japan,' writes Shingo Yamagami.

'For Australia, moving from miner to manufacturer would directly support domestic capability, including advanced AUKUS Pillar 2 technologies, and embed Australian firms into US production networks, deepening strategic interdependence,' write Morgan Bazilian and Jahara Matisek.

🗓️ EVENT REMINDER 🗓️ Join Evan Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Altana, and David Wroe, ASPI Resident Senior Fellow, on 25 February for a fireside discussion exploring how trust can become a strategic asset in global trade, defence supply chains and critical tech. 🎫 Register now: bit.ly/49Qngt6

'These actions are intended to chill political speech, constrain international engagement with Taiwan, and signal that support for Taiwanese democracy carries personal costs,' write Nathan Attrill and Shelly Shih.

'When neither dramatic theft nor visible disruption occurs, activity is often described as inconclusive, unfinished or merely preparatory. But not all cyber operations are designed to steal data or break systems. Many are designed to observe them,' writes Jack Evans.

'The belief that war would be short, contained and fought primarily by professionals has been undermined by events in Ukraine. Warsaw’s answer is to rebuild mass, integrate technology into mobilisation rather than replacement, and anchor defence planning in society,' writes Darius von Guttner.

'Australia would be wise not to rest on federal-government diplomacy alone in promoting its credibility and influence in the Pacific,' writes Anna Alexander.

'The rules-based international order may yet benefit, in net terms, as countries respond to disruptive US policy. Indeed, we could see other states choosing not to double down on the existing order, instead working to reconceive and construct a transformed one,' writes Jolyon Ford.

🗓️ JOB REMINDER 🗓️ Applications for Coordinator of ASPI's Cyber, Technology and Security program close next Friday. This role supports operational and strategic delivery for CTS, including program management, partnership engagement and events delivery. ⏳ Don't miss out. Apply now ➡️ bit.ly/3NX58Xf

'Food and energy systems must be designed not only to recover from shocks, but to function, adapt and adjust—through diversification, flexibility and faster decision-making—as disruption persists,' writes Hamed Zakikhani.

NEW PODCAST 🎤 In this episode of Stop the World, Shashank Joshi, The Economist's Defence Editor, joins ASPI's David Wroe to discuss the future of democracy in the 🇺🇸, the implications for the rest of the world 🌏 and Donald Trump’s strategy towards 🇨🇳. 🎧 Listen now ➡️ bit.ly/3NX5vkN

'Cyber operations support an environment where grey-zone pressure can be applied, and without repercussions, while advancing strategic interests,' writes Adam Bartley.

'Foundational industrial activities are the backbone of process knowledge, skilled labour, tacit know-how and ultimately a broad industrial capability set that can pivot towards new adjacent industrial activities,' writes Naoise McDonagh.

'The timing of the audit’s release is significant, coming ahead of the 2026 National Defence Strategy, as Defence juggles accelerating capability programs with workforce constraints and rising sustainment demands,' writes Raelene Lockhorst.

'It is prudent to start considering the unthinkable sooner rather than later and plan for a possible world where the anchor of our security architecture continues rewriting that architecture in unexpected ways,' writes Alexander Lee.

'Platforms such as X have long occupied a central position in geopolitical information flows. When they allege state-level interference at massive scale, transparency is not optional; it is the minimum requirement for public trust,' writes Fergus Ryan.

'Security is not a settled state nor about always guaranteeing stability. It is about reassurance and trust amid instability and threat, and it is maintained with a shared acceptance that risk can be managed but not eliminated,' writes Justin Bassi.

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 ASPI has released 'Securing Australia: Insights in counter terrorism: Views from The Strategist', a new compendium examining Australia’s counter-terrorism trajectory from the post-9/11 period to today’s more complex threat environment. 🔖 Explore it now: bit.ly/3NRhuAk

'As Washington concentrates its most capable forces on deterring China while elevating homeland defence and managing commitments elsewhere, allies face harder political and capability choices. They must be able to manage secondary contingencies with little or no US support,' writes Jihoon Yu.

'Part of the problem is that negative feelings about US President Donald Trump draw most public interest and commentary on the Australia–US alliance to the here and now, and much of it is petty,' writes Andrew Forrest.

'The Joint Staff Department, a critical node for operational planning, joint command and crisis management, appears leaderless. So Xi puts internal political stability above external combat readiness,' writes Ying Yu Lin.

🚨 JOB ALERT 🚨 ASPI's Cyber, Technology and Security team is seeking a high-performing Coordinator to join the team. This role encompasses program coordination, stakeholder and partnership management, event delivery, budget oversight and team facilitation. 🔎 Interested? Apply now ➡️ bit.ly/3NX58Xf

NEW PODCAST 🎤 Kicking off Stop the World for 2026, @constelz.bsky.social joins David Wroe to unpack a turbulent start to the year in global affairs, from Mark Carney’s Davos speech to NATO head Mark Rutte’s assessment that Europe can’t defend itself without the US. 🎧 Listen now 👉 bit.ly/4c14l1x

'The campaign has gained little traction in Okinawa itself, where local polls show that only around 3 percent of residents support full independence. Yet it works effectively in China by reinforcing nationalist sentiment and anti-Japanese framing,' writes Hsi-Ting Pai.

'Australia needs to consider what "critical but more limited US support" could mean for the ADF’s ability to undertake operations. Canberra should be concerned about the Trump administration’s pressure to increase defence investment,' writes Malcolm Davis.

'The shift towards commercial bank-led financing over this period has also encouraged Chinese enterprises from sectors outside of mining—such as battery manufacturing and recycling—to invest in Indonesia’s industrial parks,' write Kuma Yung, Elizabeth Frost and Yun-Ling Ko.

'Another element in the US Air Force’s plans for long-range operations, essential for Asia-Pacific deterrence, may have emerged from under cover of secrecy,' writes Bill Sweetman.

🔔 EVENT ALERT 🔔 Join ASPI on Wednesday 25 February for a fireside conversation with Evan Smith, CEO of Altana, examining how trust can be operationalised across trade, defence supply chains and critical technologies. 👉 Register now to attend: bit.ly/49Qngt6

'Process design matters. Speed to capability is enabled by speed to acquisition, and speed to acquisition is enabled by fit-for-purpose processes,' writes Dougal Pidgeon.

'Taiwan needs its own ways of holding out against China, particularly against a Chinese blockade. Addressing this issue is becoming urgent as President Donald Trump shows an alarming lack of enthusiasm for preserving the island’s independence,' writes David Axe.

🗓️CLOSING SOON 🗓️ Applications to join ASPI’s Defence Strategy Program as a Senior Analyst close this week. This role involves rigorous research, contributing to ASPI events and supporting informed debate on defence and strategic affairs. ⏳ Apply now ➡️ bit.ly/3KPhCzd

'Acknowledging China’s climate contributions should not obscure the need for careful scrutiny. Beyond celebrating its progress, other countries must weigh the strategic implications as they develop policies to meet their own climate objectives,' write Elena Yi-Ching Ho and Elizabeth Frost.

'Military coercion around Taiwan in 2025 reflected preparation, not provocation. The absence of clear causal links is not a failure of analysis—it is the point,' writes Nathan Attrill.

'And as we navigate this period of increasing strategic uncertainty, Australia should identify, engage and train the next cohort of wartime officials from the private sector as part of a broader, contemporary conversation about the function of a country at war,' writes Matthew Newman.

🚨 NOW LIVE 🚨 ASPI has launched Fault Lines, a fortnightly newsletter examining the developments shaping the international order in Australia’s region 🌏. Each edition covers key actions across Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania. 📩 Subscribe now 👉 bit.ly/4qII6SM

'Based on more than 300 interviews with his contacts in Pyongyang and decision-makers in Washington, Beijing and Seoul, Wit provides a vivid account of the international discussions, internal debates and behind-the-scenes wrangling that shaped the US’s North Korea policy,' writes Robert Wihtol.

'As offshore wind expands into waters adjacent to strategic ports, the threshold for scrutiny must rise accordingly,' writes Alex O'Brien.

'There is going to be a conflict within the military-industrial complex, and it is hard to tell who will prevail,' writes Bill Sweetman.

'Although Australia may not share Indonesia’s non-alignment approach, Canberra should take advantage of cooperation opportunities, especially in tech domains,' write Fitriani and Jascha Ramba Santoso.

'Taiwan will also be building drones and drone parts for friends, as many Western governments are trying to build their own China-free supply chains due to security concerns,' writes Erin Hale.

'When hostile acts are met with calls for dialogue, dialogue becomes the ceiling of response,' writes Thomas Brough.

'Australia and others investing heavily in digital government are rightly focused on who we trust to build and operate critical systems. But they are less consistent in demanding proof that those systems can fail safely,' writes Jason Van der Schyff.

🔔 JOB REMINDER 🔔 Don't miss your chance to join ASPI’s Defence Strategy Program as a Senior Analyst! If you have experience delivering influential research and briefing senior decision-makers, we want to hear from you. ⏳ Apply by 29 January ➡️ bit.ly/3KPhCzd