'Amid the upheavals of Donald Trump’s second term, Marco Antonio Rubio is getting a fresh look as a possible Republican standard bearer in 2028,' writes Lester Munson.

'A country may operate militarily in space without calling it a warfighting domain. This was a rational ambiguity when space actors were few and actions were constrained, before the realisation of important technological advances. But this is no longer the case,' writes Philip Citowicki.

'Australia’s existing measures, including the ban on social media for under-16s and the eSafety Commissioner’s recent transparency notices to major gaming platforms, are a welcome start, but attention to the gaming layer remains underdone,' write Soumya Awasthi and Fitriani.

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're delighted to announce Markus Garlauskas, Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, joins the speaker lineup for the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference on 25 June. 🎟️ Don't miss out. Register now: bit.ly/3RxeCKC

'Northern Australia is entering a convergence moment. Energy, critical minerals, defence posture, logistics and digital infrastructure are all moving at once. Without coordination, that convergence becomes congestion. With coordination, it becomes a multiplier,' writes @johncoyne14.bsky.social.

'Since the Collins class is losing its competitiveness with age, delays to the Virginias and SSN-AUKUS could leave Australia without a modern crewed submarine capability for a decade or more – hence the need to get ready now for the Japanese fallback option,' writes Richard Gray.

'Australia urgently needs sovereign biomanufacturing capability to reduce its exposure to fragile global supply chains, especially those tied to agri-food systems. A national biomanufacturing strategy is essential to achieve this,' write Jess Freitag and Ryan Huling.

'The US Air Force just revealed that it was launching a study of a new heavy bomber that might replace the Boeing B-52. The analysis of alternatives in the FY27 budget will look at ‘future B-52 requirements and costs and/or a new heavy bomber aircraft configuration and costs', writes Bill Sweetman.

SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🔉 We're looking forward to welcoming RAND Corporation's Jennifer Moroney to the ASPI Defence Conference on 25 June in Canberra! The event will bring together policymakers, military leaders and experts to examine key defence and security challenges. 🎟️ Register: bit.ly/3RxeCKC

🚨 EVENT ALERT 🚨 Join us on 3 June in Canberra for a fireside conversation with Anne Neuberger, former US Deputy National Security Adviser for Cyber & Emerging Tech, on how governments & industry can strengthen cyber resilience amid intensifying geopolitical competition. ✍️ Register: bit.ly/4uf9gCd

'Southeast Asian countries looking for security against 🇨🇳 should shift the weight of their defence spending to deploying highly mobile, inexpensive equipment that it would struggle to counter. These would be strike missiles, cheap drones and surface-to-air missile systems,' writes Harshit Prajapati.

'Among the most sophisticated tanks in the world, the M1A2s are also a symbol – but not the symbol of strength that Taiwanese leaders surely hope. Instead, they are symbols of weakness. For too long, Taiwan has armed itself with the wrong weapons,' writes @davidaxe.bsky.social.

'Australian defence policy focuses too much on the risk of high-intensity, mostly conventional conflict at large cost to capabilities for peacekeeping and humanitarian support, its most likely military operations,' writes Declan Sullivan.

🔔 EVENT ALERT 🔔 Join us on 28 May in Canberra for a special event unpacking the findings of our upcoming report on lethal humidity and the systemic risks of climate change, featuring remarks by the Hon Josh Wilson MP, Dr Robert Glasser, and Dr Arnagretta Hunter. ✍️ Register now: bit.ly/4dbSz4F

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're pleased to announce Joel Fitzgibbon, Former Minister for Defence and Member for Hunter, will speak at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference. This year’s event will focus on the NDS and IIP, delivering an integrated force and more. 🎫 Secure your spot now: bit.ly/4uqFJWa

NEW PODCAST 📢 In a special episode previewing the Trump-Xi Summit, David Wroe speaks to former White House China director Matthew Turpin on the underlying shifts in the US-China economic relationship & why we need a strategy of disentanglement. 🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/3Pj7q40

🚨 EVENT ALERT🚨 Join ASPI's Women in Defence & Security Network, in partnership with Corro, for Speed Mentoring on 10 June. If you're passionate about defence, foreign affairs and national security, this event is a chance to gain advice from senior leaders from across the sector. 📝: bit.ly/42sd07p

'We label adversary behaviour as unconventional, asymmetric and hybrid. We treat it as cheating – as a violation of a framework that we designed and invited ourselves into, and that we are perpetually surprised to find others don’t observe,' writes Kendy Hau.

NEW PODCAST 🎙️ On Stop the World, ASPI's Justin Bassi and David Wroe unpack Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s visit to Australia, including the significance of the bilateral relationship amid global geopolitical turmoil, as well as the latest news in AI. 🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/4eAwjT9

'Rather than preparing solely for invasion, Beijing appears increasingly focused on blockade, quarantine and intense subversion,' writes Nathan Attrill.

'We have everything to gain by linking arms with a regional neighbour whose strategic outlook is the closest to Australia’s of any Asian nation and that has proven, when it puts its mind to it, that it can move technological and industrial mountains,' writes David Wroe.

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're looking forward to welcoming Air Marshal Stephen Chappell DSC CSC OAM, Chief of Air Force, to the ASPI Defence Conference on 25 June. This event will engage participants on 🇦🇺’s most pressing defence and national security priorities. 🎫 Register now 👉bit.ly/4uqFJWa

'Although battery‑electric locomotives cost more to buy than diesels, their lower maintenance costs make their total cost of ownership comparable,' writes James Renouf.

'Japan and Australia are natural partners because their needs and capabilities fit together like pieces of a puzzle,' writes Sumio Kusaka.

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're pleased to announce @stephendziedzic.bsky.social will join the speaker lineup for the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference in June. This year's event will examine the role of middle powers in the Indo-Pacific, national resilience, regional threats & more. 🎟️: bit.ly/4uqFJWa

'Non-lethal doesn’t mean zero-consequence. A jammer can disrupt civilian communications. But the risk profile is fundamentally different from a system that selects human targets, and governance should reflect that,' writes Rhys Kissell.

'A framework in which AI companies pay into an Australian fund that is distributed among copyright holders by a government-backed agency makes most sense. The Australian public seems to get this,' writes David Wroe.

🚨 SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 🚨 We're delighted to announce LTGEN Simon Stuart AO DSC, Chief of the Australian Army, will speak at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference. Hear insights from key leaders as they discuss the most pressing strategic challenges facing 🇦🇺. 🎟️ Register now: bit.ly/4uqFJWa

'After the fourth boat, called S4 for now, a larger class with a much more powerful reactor is expected to join India’s SSBN fleet,' writes Abubhav Shankar Goswami.

'The distinction between state-grade spyware and criminal malware is blurring, expanding both the scale and accessibility of intrusion capabilities,' write Allison Pytlak and Gatra Priyandita.

'Leasing or otherwise rapidly acquiring Japanese submarines would require few resources, at least initially, and wouldn’t detract from the Optimal Pathway until that path became obviously unachievable or significantly delayed,' write Richard Gray and Mike Hughes.

🚨 NEW REPORT 🚨 In 'Hedging our bets', ASPI Senior Resident Fellow Richard Gray argues that while AUKUS remains the best pathway to ensure 🇦🇺’s future defence, significant risks mean Canberra should explore the backup option of leasing or acquiring a submarine capability from 🇯🇵. 🔖: bit.ly/4djWM6i

NEW PODCAST 🎤 This week Ray Powell and Jim Carouso, co-hosts of the podcast 'Why should we care about the Indo-Pacific?', join Stop the World for a conversation on US strategy in the Indo-Pacific, the upcoming Trump-Xi Meeting, risks in the South China Sea, and more. 🎧 Listen here: bit.ly/4tIGg5w

'Beijing could assess thresholds, probe alliance cohesion and identify gaps in regional resilience. These actions might fall short of provoking conflict but would increase operational risk and the likelihood of miscalculation,' write Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen.

SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 We're pleased to announce that Peter Malinauskas, Premier of South Australia, will speak at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference on 25 June. Join us for timely discussions on Australia's defence strategy and place in the world. 🎟️ Register: bit.ly/4uqFJWa

'Australia needs to determine what legal, regulatory and operational obligations and protections technology companies actually need in order to act decisively across multiple jurisdictions during a crisis,' write Jason Van der Schyff and James Corera.

'Managing this risk will depend on clear signalling of intent, robust communication mechanisms and a shared interest in avoiding unintended escalation. Yet the very nature of grey-zone competition complicates these efforts,' write Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen.

🚨 NEW SPEAKER 🚨 We're pleased to announce that Nicola Smith, Canberra Bureau Chief for the Australian Financial Review, will speak at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference on 25 June in Canberra. 🎟️ Secure your place, register now: bit.ly/425NrIZ

The latest edition of ASPI’s Fault Lines digest is out now! This edition covers OPCON transfer in South Korea, the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, diplomatic games in Vanuatu, & much more. 📩 Subscribe: aspidefence.substack.com/subscribe 📚 Read the digest: aspidefence.substack.com/p/fault-line...

'A poorly structured investment vehicle risks delivering less strategic value than simply allocating the same capital to direct capability acquisition,' writes Jason Van der Schyff.

'Expect Chinese ships to keep turning up in waters near other Indo-Pacific countries with ever increasing frequency. Expect its ships to moor in their ports, too,' write Raji Rajagopalan, Joe Keary and Linus Cohen.

SPEAKER ANNOUNCEMENT 📢 We're pleased to announce that Richard Marles, Deputy Prime Minister of Australia and Minister for Defence, will speak at the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference in Canberra on 25 June. Tickets are limited, secure your place now. 🎫 Register: bit.ly/4tFfPhn

'The scale of this collaboration is limited, but the direct involvement of Iranian government agencies in facilitating joint research with China indicates the strategic nature of these partnerships,' writes ASPI's China investigations team.

PROJECT UPDATE 📢 Today ASPI launches an update to the China Defence Universities Tracker, including insights on China-Iran research ties for the past 15 years, a major refresh of sanctions information and updates to 12 institutions. 📝 Get access: unitracker.aspi.org.au

'Rather than seeking rapid breakthroughs or dramatic shows of force, China is pursuing a long-term effort to extend operational reach, build familiarity and shape regional environments in ways that favour its interests,' write Joe Keary, Raji Rajagopalan and Linus Cohen.

'Australia must now move from demonstration to system-wide delivery. Northern Australia already carries the strategic weight. The system required to sustain it remains unfinished,' writes John Coyne.

🚨 NEW PUBLICATION 🚨 ASPI's special edition compendium 'Northern capability, national defence' examines the central role of northern Australia in Australia’s defence posture and how Australia can translate its strategic focus on the north into operational capability. 🔖 Read: bit.ly/4vWIiAF

NEW PODCAST 🎙️ Madeleine King, Minister for Resources and Northern Australia, joins Stop the World from the sidelines of the Darwin Dialogue to discuss the failure of critical minerals markets, the need for intervention & what connected supply chains will look like in the future. 🎧: bit.ly/4cvdD5W

'Any faltering of US resolve risks not only US participation in the defence of Taiwan but whatever Japanese participation has been possible. Taiwan’s leaders should plan accordingly and plan to fight alone,' writes David Axe.

🚨 EVENT REMINDER 🚨 Early bird tickets for the 2026 ASPI Defence Conference close tonight. Join us on Thursday 25 June in Canberra for one of the most highly anticipated events on the defence and security calendar. ⌛️ Secure your spot now ➡️ bit.ly/4b4EHbo