Trump is waiting for Pokrovsk to fall. After that, he will say to Zelensky: I warned you, give the Russians what they want.

"We may find ourselves in a situation where we will not only lose a significant number of highly motivated paratroopers and marines... we may find ourselves in a situation where there is no one to patch the hole in the front," journalist and volunteer Vitalii Deineha, wrote on Facebook.

🧵

The EU must clarify its China policy and embed it as a clear conditionality in the accession process, writes Vladimir Shopov @ecfrasia.bsky.social https://bit.ly/4nGowUG

Pretty clear what the Russians will be doing. Nothing new, their standard strategy. And will Ukrainians make their standard mistakes again? Scary. Someone please explain it to them.

Russians have gone completely crazy. In the Soviet Union, they were abnormal, but now they are completely insane and hysterical. It's a big problem. It's impossible to negotiate with such crazies. No way.

LOL Crazy Russians. He said the novel US Dark Eagle hypersonic weapon has a flight range of 5,500 kilometers (wow, how scary!) while in fact it's 2,775 kilometers (1,725 miles). Well, anyway, it just 1,609–1,612 kilometers from Berlin to Moscow in straight line.

Well... A joyful day for many. But expect the US Army in New York - to fight Antifa.

oops According to the Russian Grain Union data, in July-October 2025, Russia exported 20.6 million tons of grain, which is 20% less than in the same period in 2024 (27.3 million tons). Wheat exports fell by 28% to 18.2 million tons from 23.3 million tons.

While Ukraine is enthusiastically trying to stop Russian oil exports and cause fuel shortage in Russia (will not succeed) wasting many hundreds of drones, Pokrovsk has practically fallen, and this is an extremely painful (and dangerous) defeat for Kyiv. THIS is the military reality, not fantasy.

That said, American Stalin is tomorrow's problem, because American Mussolini is here today and his presence is steadily converting 40-odd percent of the country into fascists by peer pressure, day, by day, week by week. And I am sincerely unsure how we stop that.

So far, Indian purchases of Russian crude are UP since Trump put “sanctions” on Russia. If harsh secondary sanctions are not imposed by the US on 21 November…. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/ind...

Boracay was highest-profile falsely flagged tanker we've seen so far. (~62% of @windward-ai.bsky.social' s dark fleet over 20kdwt is falsely flagged or unknown). Yet despite headlines & fact Benin-flagged tanker is unregulated, insurance invalidated etc, discharged cargo at Vadinar, India 1/11

When you compare the “results” of Trump's negotiations with Xi and Trump's foolish statements in this regard with what is written in the joint Russian-Chinese communiqué following the 13th regular meeting of the heads of government of Russia and China and Xi's statements, it makes you sad. >>>

Many will find this strange, but we are convinced that this Ukraine's strategy is misguided because it pursues an illusory goal. Here's why. 🧵: 1. Until 1973, Russia exported almost no crude oil to the West (in order to obtain hard currency), but was able to industrialize and militarize. >>>

I’m sure they’ll be impressed (not). They will smile and offer supportive words but still hold back their most sensitive intelligence. Any professional service realizes they can’t trust this unprofessional Administration. www.politico.eu/article/cia-...

And there, behind him, isn't that Al Capone? That hat... www.gettyimages.co.uk/detail/news-...

😂 So easy to do even if crude oil was produced by Rosneft or Lukoil or any other sanctioned entity. That's why ALL Russian oil producers shall be sanctioned. All of them, even joint ventures. Indian Oil buys Russian crude from non-sanctioned entities www.reuters.com/business/ene...

Everyone has already figured out (except perhaps the Democrats in the US) how to use Trump's ignorance and idiocy to their advantage.

Europe, 21st century

Russia demands security guarantees for itself? No problem, just send the Kremlin a draft of a new Budapest Memorandum. With the same language for Russia as there was for Ukraine in 1994.

Mordashov, owner of Russian steel company Severstal: "The situation in Russian industry is mixed, but it's fair to say that things aren't easy and are getting worse overall. Steel consumption in Russia fell by 15% in the first nine months of this year. Last year, it fell by 7%." >>>

And what if it's a flying Chernobyl, which it seems it is? Someone should ask Peskov.

Great 🧵. My only quibble is with “it depends on what Trump has in mind” because Trump himself has no idea what he has in mind. (I suspect Hanna knows this and was just being polite)

Moreover, he does not understand that actual nuclear detonations are unnecessary, since other methods are now being used: www.sandia.gov/asc/

No news, except perhaps for the US intelligence agencies. It has long been clear that Putin needs a permanent state of conflict with NATO to justify his failures at home: Russia was underdeveloped and remains so, and things will only get worse. www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...

The decline in gasoline prices continues on the St. Petersburg Stock Exchange for the third day in a row, with the price of 92 octane gasoline falling by 12%.

The new Russian law on calling the reservists to protect critical infrastructure and other life-support facilities in peacetime (like now) is an artificial substitute for mobilization. Calling up reservists will free up regular troops performing these functions to be sent to the front. >>>

Difficult? Rebecca Schulz, Alberta’s Minister of Environment and Protected Areas in February, 2025: "We need to diversify our export markets, and Japan, our already existing relationship, is going to be a key area of focus. Alberta is working on four or five projects for additional export capacity."

Question: What is more important, damaging 10% of more than 6,000 military enterprises in Russia, or destroying about 27,000 personnel, 100 tanks, 260 armored vehicles, and 160 artillery systems, which are attempting to encircle the Ukrainian Pokrovsk agglomeration?

We see people writing enthusiastically: Trump's approval rating has fallen to some kind of historical lows..., a stable but negative trend... Wait, according to various polls, 37-46% approve . Just think about it! That's not 10 or 15%, it's 37-46%!!! 40% of Americans... 40!

This is one of the problems with Western sanctions against Russia. Look: the aircraft owned by a sanctioned Russian company is landing in Armenia, Algeria, Morocco, Senegal, and Mauritania. So impose secondary sanctions on these countries! The problem would be solved very fast.

Trump is fabricating a crisis that could end American democracy. If he succeeds, our streets will be militarized, and our courts will become places for political show trials. That’s why what’s happening in Chicago matters to everyone. My latest: open.substack.com/pub/edwineis...

Is the Russian economy sufficiently in trouble to lead Putin to reappraise his war strategy? I look at the evidence in my latest post (£/free trial), open.substack.com/pub/samf/p/u...?

The time has come to bring complete clarity to the crucial legal issue of aiding and abetting aggression (and criminal liability). Aggression is the product of a joint endeavor of different national and TRANSNATIONAL structures of power. To this day, there are various interpretations of legal norms.

Oekraïne stuurt versterking naar Pokrovsk, "hevige gevechten" in de stad' www.volkskrant.nl/buitenland/l...

Putin signed a law ratifying the agreement between Russia and Venezuela on strategic partnership and cooperation.

Wow, in Russia, the industrial production index in civilian manufacturing industries for the last three months of this year, compared to the same period last year, was only 97.3%. >>>

No, Russia can't do it now. Russia will have to cut crude oil production next month.

TOTAL 'pol. control'. They have completely degenerated there in the DOS Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR). Was so clear back in 2022, we never tired of repeating it THEN. In 2024 we got tired. Well, OK, let's repeat it again now: Putin will not relinquish his maximalist demands.

But that's true, the Budapest Memorandum didn't GUARANTEE Ukraine's borders. "Respect" (the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders) and "Refrain" (from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence) DO NOT mean "GUARANTEE" - AT ALL

Fake, unfortunately.

7th floor, Smolenskaya-Sennaya 32/34, Moscow, Russia. Flamingo, please.

Where. Is. Your. Flamingo.?

Perhaps Ukraine should now accept several regions of Russia and amend its constitution accordingly? This could be done without a referendum, based on certain historical maps. Why not?

Belgium plans to earn over €1 billion annually from interest on frozen Russian assets, according to media reports. PM Bart De Wever has declined to back proposals for full asset confiscation, partly because Brussels profits from the frozen funds.