A 7-spot ladybird landed on my arm in Glasthule, Co. Dublin. The Irish for ladybird is the lovely 'bóín dé' - 'little cow of god'.

1/5 There are three key takeaways from today’s fiscal monitor: 1) Spending is growing strongly so far this year; 2) Corporation tax continues to be volatile; and 3) Underlying tax revenue continues to grow.

I wrote a new piece for foreign policy. The US's postwar role as guarantor of Europe’s security is over – and may even turn adversarial. But Europe has an overlooked trump card. When it comes to manufacturing Europe blows the US out of the water. Thread. 1/ foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/e...

The Fiscal Council has collaborated with the Climate Change Advisory Council on a new report. It sets out the costs Ireland faces if it misses its agreed EU climate commitments. These could amount to staggering payments of €8bn to €26bn to Europe. Read more at www.fiscalcouncil.ie/a-colossal-m...

Your dignity honors the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Be strong, be brave, be fearless. You are never alone, dear President Zelenskyy. We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.

Trump and Vance’s meeting with Zelensky in the Oval Office today “gave the lie to any claim that this administration’s policy is driven by any strategic effort to advance the interests of the United States, however misguided,” @davidfrum.bsky.social writes. Read more: theatln.tc/SowY3Uin

Just posted by President Zelenskyy

This will be remembered as the day when America's honor took a deep dive... And meanwhile #Ukraine will keep fighting for all of us who believe in freedom, justice and democracy #UkrainianView www.nytimes.com/video/us/pol...

Surely nobody is surprised at this stage? (@mcopelov.bsky.social is a worth following on this topic, and many others.) www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...

Movies watched more than six times, gifs only

1/3 Yesterday, the Construction Industry Federation (CIF) of Ireland suggested up to 30,000 housing units are under review at An Bord Pleanála or facing judicial review. While these figures seem shockingly high, it is consistent with previous work by myself and @timoneykevin.bsky.social.

This nice @jlpobrien.bsky.social chart from July 2023 shows Ireland's population in 2024 was c.1.7m (~45%) higher than experts projected after the 1991 Census. It will be interesting to look back at the latest median projection for 2053 (6.39m) - my guess is another double-digit +ve % difference.

Fascinating paper by Claudia Goldin on drivers of low fertility in advanced economies. Countries where economic progress outstrips social progress (in particular, gender equality in household division of labour) see the most rapid falls in fertility.. www.nber.org/papers/w33311

1/5 Today’s fiscal monitor show the final Exchequer returns for 2024. There are two key takeaways from the figures: 1) underlying revenue remains very strong; 2) spending is increasing at a rapid pace leading to large overruns.

Here’s a fabulously expensive pizza seen today in Dunnes Stephen’s Green.

8/10 Ireland has a huge opportunity now. If corporation tax receipts are managed well, Ireland could tackle infrastructure deficits, its climate transition, and prepare for an ageing population.

1/10 The Fiscal Council's latest report looks at the prospects for the Irish economy and public finances. We point to the extraordinary levels of corporation tax being collected. These create huge opportunities but also important risks.

+1 Superb job by the pollsters and thanks a lot to all involved with @irishpollingind.bsky.social, which provides invaluable public service.

Female share of household labour income over the past three decades in the UK - @resfoundation.bsky.social www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...

Share of foreign-trained doctors & nurses in European countries in 2023 www.oecd.org/en/publicati...

This week’s #GE24 article focuses on transfers, examining Exit Polls and all candidates since 1948. – Voters typically express 3–4 preferences – 30% of votes transferred at least once – Inter-coalition transfers are common – 10% of TDs decisively elected through transfers www.rte.ie/news/2024/11...

A beautiful chart from @gavinjackson.bsky.social's excellent Briefing on why the energy transition will be cheaper than you think www.economist.com/briefing/

1. RACE 2. Gender 3.age

Suimiúl go bhfuil Éire ar imeall briseadh leis an treocht seo.

This IT piece is confused on which nationalities are driving Ireland’s net migration. Ukraine arrivals mainly were in the year to April 2023 when population growth was 1.9%. Inflows have since slowed as PPSN data show. This year was 1.9% again mainly due to Asia ⬇️ www.irishtimes.com/business/eco...

Táim ag súil le bheith ag labhairt faoin ngeilleagar ag Electric Picnic an Domhnach seo idir 12 agus 2, ag An Puball Gaeilge sa #MindField. #EP2024 #gaeilge

I have put together a starter pack of #Europe econ and politics tweeps (+ a few more). Hope that helps. Do let me know who else to add (my list is a first draft, really) And do share widely. bsky.app/profile/did:...

Sásta bheith ar ais ar #bluesky arís. Mar atá thar lear sa Bhreatain agus sna Stát Aontaithe Mheirceá, is léir go bhfuil eolas faoin margadh saothair in Éireann deacair a léirmhíniú de bharr athbhreithnithe. Ach i R1 '24, d'fhás fostaithe 2.6% de réir na sonraí #CSO seo: www.cso.ie/en/statistic...

The Fiscal Council is looking to recruit two summer interns. This paid internship with flexible remote working options will be attractive to those interested in a career in data science or economics. Find out more and apply by Friday 22nd March: www.fiscalcouncil.ie/2024/02/summ...

Rith mé an Goal Mile ar maidin. Craic mhaith! 🏃🎄 strava.app.link/LMIQAyWrPFb

Four really important and interesting charts below in this mornings Irish Fiscal Council paper. On Ireland's infrastructure levels relative to the EU15: Low housing stock. Low on health infrastructure. Low on transport infrastructure. Only middling on education infrastructure.

Hello Bluesky. If you want to know what’s going on with Ireland’s real economy, these monthly data and employment growth rates are the best indicators around. NB: contrary to recent news about GDP, by no means do the figures below suggest an economy that is in recession.