Just finished an Ibec webinar with over 750 members. In our new analysis deck, link below, we have tried to answer as much as we can, given what we know, on the scale and shape of the economic impact for Ireland. Podcast later for the audible learners. www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Happy 'Liberation Day' to all who celebrate. May your supply chains be disrupted, your capacity underutilised, your consumer confidence sapped, and may all your investment decisions be stalled by uncertainty.

There has been a lot of shite talked about moment x or y being 'Europe's defining moment' in the last fifteen years. This feels quite different to me.

I've some words in this piece on Trump's exec order, which targets foreign companies with punitive US tax, if their HQ jurisdiction is 'unfairly' taxing US MNEs. Agree with quotes from Pascal Saint Amans on the neatest route to de-escalation. EU should take it. www.businesspost.ie/politics/ana...

This is a really interesting post on quantity versus price targeting on an externality. More generally, a must-read blog on European policy. www.siliconcontinent.com/p/target-pri...

Talking to a lot of companies about the current macro environment. Two common themes - "looking through" short-run noise where possible and stalling bigger decisions where uncertainty is high. The option value of doing nothing is proportional to 'noise'. Uncertainty is an investment killer

If you're bored waiting for the Government to be formed, here's a handy chart from yesterday's Ibec Economic Outlook on the impact of tariffs on Ireland/Europe under various scenarios of dollar appreciation. Can be framed or hung directly as a poster.

A piece on employment growth in Ireland by sector. I've divided the years into periods based on vibes. Despite the drop during Covid, employment growth in recent years has been the strongest it has ever been. But importantly it has been driven by higher productivity sectors.

The phrase 'Multi hazard weather event' is a crime against clarity.

My wrap of 2024 in the IT. Many challenges ahead, but end on a positive. By Dec 2025, employment will be +500,000 in five years. “we have the financial resources and skills necessary to unlock our economic potential... for the first time in the State’s history.” www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

A piece in the IT from Ibec CEO Danny McCoy. "Smaller nations such as Ireland must now take greater responsibility in addressing Europe’s challenges. Europe cannot let the politics of other blocs distract from resolving the structural issues hindering its own growth and living standards."

It was great to be on BBC Radio Ulster yesterday evening to talk about elections, housing, infrastructure and Ireland's place in an uncertain world with Richard Morgan and @orla-hegarty.bsky.social. From about 40 minutes here. www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/...

Just to recognise before the polls, the effort and time candidates put in on behalf of their communities. And the importance of the representativness and transparency of our electoral system. Both are important at a time when there is sometimes growing alienation or mistrust globally.

The main thing to remember now about the impact of this section of the debate is that all the normal people have gone to bed #leadersdebate #rtept

As a private voter, my three key issues for the election are: 1. Public transport, 2. Care/disabilities, and 3. This one bit of my walk to the village where the footpath disappears for about 20 metres and you either have to cross the road and then cross back again, or take your chances.

On the economy, the thing I'd most like to hear in the @news.rte.ie debate is what the parties *won't* do if the corporate tax take slows. And their plans for issues, like infrastructure capacity & energy costs, which are already impacting investment in sectors that deliver those resources.

Worth checking out this useful analysis, breaking down the key General Election manifesto commitments by the political parties, aligned with key Ibec policy pillars for business and industrial development. Link to the full thing here: cdn.ibec.ie/-/media/docu...

I have some quotes in today's Sindo. Europe and Ireland's most immediate economic challenges are entirely home-grown - as outlined in Draghi and elsewhere. “The erosion of our competitiveness is, more than anything, driven by investor concerns about the ability to complete projects here.”

Gerry Howlin's read on the manifestos. "The issue is not any specific measure. It is that a volatile future is left in hock to an ever-narrower tax base, dependent on fewer sources of income, for a declining percentage of workers supporting an ever-older society."

Agree with this piece. Trump policies, if implemented, don't necessarily have a big impact on adoption of tech. But spell higher interest rates, which impacts electrification. Renewables are capital intensive and the levelised cost of energy is highly sensitive to rates.

No rush. Nothing else going on in the world.

When you know this thing is really taking off is when you get the corporate brand customer service accounts transferring over.

I'm thinking about taking up smoking because of this debate #RTEUpfront

Best of luck to the RTE staff who are in charge of studio design for this exercise in vigorous multi-party democracy.

The idea of these starter packs is a great one. No notes.

Four really important and interesting charts below in this mornings Irish Fiscal Council paper. On Ireland's infrastructure levels relative to the EU15: Low housing stock. Low on health infrastructure. Low on transport infrastructure. Only middling on education infrastructure.

Here is one that is taking off. Irish imports of solar panels (or their components) has almost 10x-ed what it was 4 years ago. Investment in solar, even at this rate, is only in the foothills of its eventual levels you'd imagine.

Some great stats in the new CSO publication - Ireland and the EU at 50. Look at the structural change in the economy over that time. Services has grown from 45% of employment to 77%. Primary Ag from 24% to 4%

The post crash breakup here into Dept of Finance and DPER, in a very similar civil service model here, has worked relatively well. Not sure this would do anything for growth in the UK though.