Great reminder, as ever, that political positions and names aren't always as they first appear.

Diaspora falling very, very heavily for PAS currently, and over 50% in Chișinău. Overall, looks like a strong night for PAS, with it now seeming as though they have secured a majority.

Luke's thoughts here are well worth a read. There's an underlying theme and thought: after years trying to bring UKIP, then Reform into the mainstream, why is Farage now seemingly so focused on courting the online right?

Can you put a price on friendship? We may soon find out, given Russian activity in Eastern Europe has begun hitting China's trade with the European continent.

An actual quote from the Secretary of State for Business and Trade Too often people go to university to ‘explore research and knowledge’ Look forward to Wes S saying 'too often people go to hospital to have operations' or Heidi Alexander saying 'too often people go to the station to catch a train'

Elsewhere, AUR's George Simion appeared at the rally in London. In many respects, this is something unimaginable a decade ago. A Romanian populist actor would have lacked the international name to be invited; a British far-right actor would not have invited those from Eastern Europe.

There is a lot to be said about recent events in Romania, and by figures on the far right. They have been incredibly busy, as has the state in response. Inevitably, it will be too long for a single thread, so I am splitting it into two. First and most notably, Calin Georgescu has been indicted.

The whiff of gunpowder has been in the air around US politics for years. The level of complacency among European analysts and scholars over growing risks of armed political violence in America is remarkable.

Had hoped this would be the end of the charade that is the role of deputy PM. Alas, as ever I am disappointed.

Up high, in the mountains of madness. Former mayor of Cluj-Napoca, Gheorghe Funar (a far-right clown) claims Russian president Putin was born to Romanian parents named Putină. This was just one take in an interview covering 1000 years of "history". Imagine the rest.

How will the Romanian far right (especially AUR and George Simion) interfere in Moldova's elections? A couple of major directions to pay attention to. First, by having allies running directly for seats. An example: the Democracy at Home Party (PDA), run by Simion ally ...

💡 Our colleagues over in Italy are organising a Summer School on Democratic Backsliding & Political Conflict from 27-30 September 2025. There are scholarships available from Widening countries. Application details can be found at: www.eui.eu/apply?id=sum...

Most literature reviews miss the point.
 Not because they’re sloppy. 
But because they treat the literature like a box to tick. In my latest Respect the Marble Post, I carve out a 6-step process to writing a meaningful lit review: catherineeunicedevries.substack.com/p/most-liter... 🧵

Had a great time presenting at the first Conference of the @ecpr-ead.bsky.social, surrounded by an array of experts and fascinating panels. Many useful ideas for existing and future papers, and next steps. The E&D community continues to grow, and I look forward to wherever it takes us in 2027!

Be sure to check out the Standing Group's first conference where I will be presenting on AUR and SOS' use of irredentist themes, and discussing how they are selective in this regard. If that doesn't interest you, there are a range of amazing panels on populism and extremism on offer!

As I said earlier, Simion and AUR spending the last few years criticising the UDMR and ethnic Hungarians at every opportunity doesn't seem to have proved electorally viable. With c90% counted, Transylvania has gone overwhelmingly to Dan.

To say the least, current votes counted looks good for Dan.

Of particular concern are two incidents from this afternoon/evening: the founder of Telegram suggesting he'd been contacted by the French to clamp down on Romanian conservatives; Simion coming out to declare victory already.

Initial thoughts at 7pm. Exit polls in Romania are showing Dan with a 9% lead on Simion. This comes with three substantial caveats: 1. Exit Polls do not account for the diaspora. 2. Exit Polls reflect an earlier point in the day. 3. Romania's exit polls are notoriously unreliable.

Some advice on how to keep track of turnout and results, as well as exit polls in the second round of the Romanian presidential election. RO's electoral office is tracking turnout here, with results available by individual polling station (prezenta.roaep.ro/prezidential...) ...

Echoing @cjterry.bsky.social's excellent comments thus far to say these turnout figures are remarkably high.

This angle of analysing support for populist parties is novel and incredibly interesting. Give it a read!

Romania presidential elections map. Antonescu got the Hungarian vote, steered by UDMR, and some Wallachian, PSD-heartland villages. Dan came out on top in Bucharest and surroundings and a string of other significant cities (Cluj, Iasi, Timisoara, Brasov, etc). Simion pretty much everywhere else.

With AUR in the news, there have been quite a few posts asking for good articles or coverage of the party. Given this, here are a few articles I believe discuss the party and their rise to prominence very well.

With 41%, and 3.8mil votes, it is hard to look past Simion's chances in the second round. Significant votes in the diaspora, particularly in UK, France, Spain and Italy, where AUR have previously done very well in legislative elections.

Largely a very good explainer of Simion, particularly for those unfamiliar with Romania and AUR. In short, don't expect easy comparisons to Farage or Le Pen, but instead Meloni.

Update: it’s now less than 3 points between Antonescu and Dan at 68% counted down from 6 points at 40%, so this is very possible to pull off for Dan. Simion is running very strong though and a result close to 40% would be a challenge for whoever faces him in round 2.

Simion's position is not at all surprising- will be interesting to see what percentage he ends up on. Tight between Dan and Antonescu, would assume diaspora will push Dan into round two. Exit polls show Ponta doing relatively well, but the question is who will he endorse?

In theory, the pandemic should have been the ultimate impetus to build new plans for crises. It showed the importance of messaging, emergency planning, co-operation both domestically and internationally. Early signs are that yet again, lessons learnt in such a situation are being forgotten.

Pikachu becoming a core symbol of pro-democratic protest around Europe and the Mediterranean is not something I expected in 2024

Târziu out of AUR and promising a new political party, whilst USR withdrew support from Lasconi to endorse Dan. As ever, a quiet day in Romanian politics.

If you think your party is good at infighting, it's got nothing on Romania's USR, who's newest contribution to the art form is switching its endorsement in the presidential election from its own party leader against her will.

I've been reading a lot about path dependency recently, but I'm interested to know if there's a name for what we're seeing currently?

The study of visual politics is a growing field, and Romania's protests are proving interesting viewing from that perspective. Struck by how many political stickers were plastered around Bucharest when I visited last month, from both sides of the aisle.

Some interesting thoughts regarding democratisation in CEE, and how qualitative and quantitative approaches varied in their optimism/pessimism.

Does Mainstream Populism Work❓ I answer this question in a new paper officially out at @psrm.bsky.social❗ Check out the paper here: doi.org/10.1017/psrm... Key take-aways in the thread below 🧵⬇️:

In Poland and European East-West Cooperation in the 1970s (@routledgehistory.bsky.social, 2024), Aleksandra Komornicka offers a history of the Polish socialist regime’s opening up towards the West in the 1970s. @jackddean.bsky.social reviews the book. ceureviewofbooks.com/review/socia...

With Simion and Târziu now fighting, AUR yet again shows Romania's radical right lacks any semblance of unity or coherence. It's unlikely to help their electoral performance, already complicated by how many candidates offering 'Sovereignist' views are standing.

You take one flight. Suddenly there's about five new presidential candidates and there's talk Șoșoaca will be trying again too. Not shocked by Simion or Ponta, but Terhes and Pisaroglu? Really?

With Georgescu banned by the BEC (as is entirely unsurprising), the question now is what happens on the far-right? With Șoșoacă's previous ban, it leaves Simion. This is complicated however. Not only will Simion have to get the documents together, but he has to build support.

Back in Bucharest, and switched on Antenna3 in the apartment where I'm staying. Nice to see that it's no less dramatic than it used to be. Dramatic copyright-free music, flashing the names of people up like it's the trailer for a new Marvel movie.

📌🗓 Save the date Tuesday Marhch 11, 2PM book talk with Balázs Trencsényi! www.linkedin.com/events/73035...

Lots of talk about ‘left behind’ places & far-right’s rise. How do industrial decline, economic hardship, & resentment actually fuel far-right support? In new @apsrjournal.bsky.social paper exploring Xylella epidemic that devastated centuries-old 🫒 groves in 🇮🇹, we find out shorturl.at/xgeho

Six arrested on suspicion of treason, including the now 101-year old Radu Theodoru. Theodoru's military career almost feels like a biographic sidenote at this point, with Holocaust denial, membership of PRM and now this.

New Cambridge Element 'Conspiracy Theories and their Believers: A Comparative Outlook' by Daniel Stockemer & @nickbordeleau.com is now free to read for 2 weeks - cup.org/4hSFMUy #cambridgeelements #politics

Much of the anglophone media has chosen to focus on the AfD, and the electoral performance of the far right. Whilst certainly important, I think this has led to many missing a story: the intertwined recovery of Die Linke and the BSW's narrow miss.

As in other countries, the far right with strong gains among the young. The idea that far right support is largely driven by authoritarian older voters against the progressive younger ones is being refuted in every election at the moment.

Initial thoughts, caveat: just from the exit polls: - If the CDU doesn't make it to 30% is going to be a disappointment, even despite the biggest party status. - The SPD's position is very poor with a result narrowly above the Greens. - The Green result is uninspiring, but fits their aims.