IN NEW ISSUE: How do different forms of state capacity protect democracy? D Andersen, @chknutsen.bsky.social & @skaaning.bsky.social argue coercive & administrative capacity affect stability in distinct ways depending on threat: buff.ly/XP4pinB @polstudiesassoc.bsky.social #polsci #polsky

I’ve been podcasting again: open.spotify.com/episode/4ZQW...

It was a heavy attack. I'm still shaking, even though we spent the entire time in the shelter. russians erased a block of a residential building in Kyiv, w people still trapped under the rubble. I can't comprehend how anyone living safely in the free world could support this.

📢 New article 🌟 👤Carl Henrik Knutsen @chknutsen.bsky.social (ISV) 👉 Successful liberal democracy as a self-reinforcing condition 📗 Open Access in Journal of European Public Policy 🔗 doi.org/10.1080/1350...

Has US democracy declined under the second Trump administration? For @lseusablog.bsky.social, I've summarized results from a survey of political scientists in the American Political Science Association's Democracy and Autocracy Section: tinyurl.com/3xcnkt46.

New publication! Can propaganda mobilize and demobilize at the same time? @plutscher.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social show it can with evidence from two preregistered experiments (N = 6,286) in Turkey @ejprjournal.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S147...

This blog post summarizes our research on Venezuela (academic.oup.com/jpr/article/...), the US (www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) and Turkey (www.cambridge.org/core/journal...) @ejprjournal.bsky.social @poppublicsphere.bsky.social @jpeaceresearch.bsky.social

Delighted to share a short blog post on the dark logic of visual "strongman" propaganda — drawing on survey experiments in Venezuela, Türkiye and the US!

And with colleagues I have a working paper that uses your work with @annemeng.bsky.social as a springboard to examine some observable implications of global pessimism bias for expert coding.

That said, there are really interesting avenues for research on plausible expert biases using coder-level data. @nilsweidmann.bsky.social, @melinaplatas.bsky.social and @sarahbush.bsky.social have great work on this topic in different contexts... doi.org/10.1177/0010... doi.org/10.1177/0010...

🌊 #Illiberal Wave No.46 💪 @plutscher.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social, @karstendonnay.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social draw on 3 experiments across Venezuela, Türkiye + the US to show that visual strongman #Propaganda can deter opposition movements + mobilise supporters. 👉️ bit.ly/48vkRV3

It’s the 250th year of American independence, and the Pope and the King of England are reminding Americans of their revolutionary values, principles, and ideals Somewhere, John Adams is confused as fuck

In June, Switzerland will vote on what is so far the most radical far-right popular initiative launched by the Swiss People‘s Party SVP: capping the population at 10M (currently ≈9.1M). In this thread, I’ll break down what it’s about and how it fits into broader findings on Swiss direct democracy

Alle sier demokratiet er på vei ned. Men hva om det motsatte er sant? I siste episode av Filter LYD snakker vi med en av verdens ledende demokratieksperter, som mener ryktene om det liberale demokratiets død er overdrevne. På Spotify eller der du lytter til podcast.

Those of us in the pro-democracy movement can and should hold both of these positions. 1. We unequivocally reject violence. 2. We will unequivocally oppose efforts by this administration to use last night as an excuse to try to suppress criticism and criminalize dissent.

Det ble vedtatt å utrede lobbyregister i går. I den anledning har @ma1ken.bsky.social og jeg skrevet om utsiktene for å faktisk få det på plass. Politikerne har ikke vist at de er villig til å innføre sterkere regulering av seg selv, så vi er ikke kjempeoptimisiske. www.altinget.no/artikkel/det...

New version of my R package {democracyData} available: github.com/xmarquez/dem...

Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social. Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism". There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.

Millions of people in Sudan are surviving on just one meal a day, as the country's food crisis deepens and threatens to spread, per report published on Monday by a group of non-governmental organizations.

@au.dk is hiring 3 postdocs (2 yrs) on personality cults & strategic communication in autocracies, led by Jakob Tolstrup & Alexander Baturo. They're looking for profiles with text-as-data, survey experiments and/or Chinese politics experience. Start fall 2026. Looks like a great opportunity!

Why I don't expect liberal democracy to go away any time soon: My article on the resilience of liberal democracy, published in @jeppjournal.bsky.social. Perfectly timed to the day after Orbáns defeat and a small spike in "democracy-optimism". There are, I argue, good reasons for such optimism.

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.

Better-paid local politicians reduce corruption and increase procurement efficiency primarily through selection rather than electoral incentives doi.org/10.1017/S000...

With Hungary’s crucial election a few days away, its National Election Office has published a list of accredited international observers (n. 859). Having spent nearly a decade researching the behavior of international observers, I decided to take a closer look 😊 www.valasztas.hu/en/internati...

So what happens next? Assuming Orbán’s Fidesz is declared the winner, look for the 153 fake observers to be paraded before the media so that their positive endorsement of the flawed poll can be quickly and loudly disseminated. Ignore them, wait for the preliminary statement of the OSCE/ODIHR.

@plutscher.bsky.social, @draege.bsky.social und @chknutsen.bsky.social untersuchen am Beispiel der Türkei, welche Auswirkungen Regierungspropaganda in elektoralen (im Gegensatz zu besser erforschten geschlossenen) Autokratien hat (OA 🔓): doi.org/10.1017/S147...

#OpenAccess from @ejprjournal.bsky.social - The effects of government propaganda in electoral authoritarian regimes: Evidence from Turkey - https://cup.org/3NGDtu8 - @plutscher.bsky.social, Jonas Bergan Draege & @chknutsen.bsky.social#OpenAccess #FirstView

🆕 #Propaganda & #Authoritarianism 💭 Philipp M. Lutscher, Jonas Bergan Draege & @chknutsen.bsky.social explore how government propaganda shapes political behaviour in polarized electoral authoritarian regimes using preregistered survey data from Turkey

Very happy and proud to have co-authored this paper in @ejprjournal.bsky.social, with @plutscher.bsky.social & @chknutsen.bsky.social 😊 doi.org/10.1017/S147... Please see Philipp's 🧵 below for the main findings 😊

(7/8) Notably, the deterrent effect on opponents weakened considerably during the 2023 campaign, when mobilization was already high and alternative narratives more accessible.

(5/8) Opponents exposed to propaganda videos report heightened anger and anxiety. Supporters report a stronger sense of societal belonging. These are consistent, robust findings across both experiments and both videos we tested.

@ejprjournal.bsky.social even timed the publication to my birthday 🎉😀 More seriously: so happy to see this published, and grateful to have worked with and learned from @plutscher.bsky.social & @draege.bsky.social Propaganda—>Diff’t Emotions—>Protest behavior Check out Philipp’s thread 👇

Join us for our first APSG-APSA Democracy & Autocracy roundtable! With Anya Schiffrin (@columbiasipa.bsky.social), Bardia Rahmani (Harvard), Erin Baggott Carter (USC, @hooverinstitution.bsky.social), @linettelim.bsky.social (@ucdpolitics.bsky.social) and @scottrw630.bsky.social (@ox.ac.uk).

"the decline in [academic freedom in] the United States has been more rapid and pronounced, particularly in the last year. It has deteriorated by 50% from 2015 to 2025 and is now evaluated as moderate autonomy by country experts" academic-freedom-index.net/research/Aca...

Our decisions are based solely on criteria specific to this project. Those criteria can be viewed in full in the V-Dem Country Coding Unit reference document: v-dem.net/documents/72... 8(8)

💡What is a V-Dem Country Coding Unit? A V-Dem “country” is a political unit enjoying at least some degree of functional and/or formal sovereignty. Watch the video or read in the thread to find out more. 👇 🧵1(8) #PoliSky #PoliSciSky #PolDataSky #PoliticalScienceData #VDemMethodology #VDemDataset

Freedom House, Bright Light Watch and V-Dem this week all told dire stories about American democracy under Trump. But the details were different---and they matter. newrepublic.com/article/2080...

The grand grift and corruption in this administration is startling and makes all Americans far worse off. Grand corruption on this scale destroys states and societies.

Nu er det simpelthen ved at blive for meget tegneserie-diktatur til, at jeg tror på, at det fortsat er sandt

I want to introduce a statistical measurement called ‘Value Under Cardboard President’ or VUCP, which measures the harm Trump does relative to a president made of cardboard that does nothing whatsoever.

NEW: Ukraine has been imposing increasing challenges on Russia at the tactical, operational, and strategic levels since the beginning of 2026. 🧵 (1/10) Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 19, 2026: isw.pub/UkrWar031926

I'm very excited that you all can now read about Itinerant Rule in the Holy Roman Empire from 919-1519 in the @ajpseditor.bsky.social! Thank you @claranw.bsky.social, @andrejkokkonen.bsky.social and Jørgen Møller for a great collaboration! onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

#DR26 What were the aspects of Democracy that declined in the most countries over the last decade? The figure displays the top 20 indicators that register decline in the largest number of countries between 2015 and 2025. 🧵 1(6) #Polisky #PoliSciSky #DemocracyAutocracy #SocialScience #PolDataSky

📢 New article 🌟 👥 Jens Jungblut @jjungblut.bsky.social (ISV), Nils B. Weidmann @nilsweidmann.bsky.social, & Carl Henrik Knutsen @chknutsen.bsky.social (ISV) 👉 The politics behind political science: A cross-national perspective 📗 Open Access in European Political Science 🔗 doi.org/10.1017/s168...

I have a PhD in political science, and I don't understand how Hungary's electoral system works. It is a good example of how authoritarian parties game the system in their favour, while keeping nominally free (but not fair) elections. From this excellent analysis: tvpworld.com/92116709/hun...

This post raises a several important questions about the @vdeminstitute.bsky.social indices that I'll try to discuss broadly, then specifically in the case of Mongolia. Important caveat: I am not a Mongolia expert, so can't speak substantively about the case; I can discuss the V-Dem methodology.

New data from V-Dem, which tracks democracy worldwide, points to a sharp decline in US democracy in 2025. Checks on the government and the freedom of expression have especially declined. But the data also points to what could halt and reverse the decline. Here’s what the data shows. 🧵