Like I fucking said.

I’ve been commissioned to write an op-ed on why the resistance to democratic backsliding in the United States is failing (and what to do about it). Given the many American friends and colleagues I have, it just won’t be an enjoyable piece to write 🙃

Just getting out in front of everyone to say that I think Trump will propose building a new capital city by the end of his term (if there is an end). Washington D.C is a crime-ridden hellhole etc etc, and America needs a big, beautiful city etc etc.

In the transition to autocratic rule, independent media outlets face a choice between (1) resisting and eventually facing consequences; (2) self-censoring and hoping to survive; and (3) becoming a propaganda arm of the new regime. @washingtonpost.com = 3 www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

As someone who is writing a book on how authoritarian regimes recruit fake observers to endorse their sham elections, I suspect this will be much worse then actually advertised..

This tactic is used by dictators to fragment the internal security apparatus and consolidate power. In Zaire, Mobutu kept kept the huge personal fortune he had amassed from pilfering the country’s diamond and copper exports as a ‘rainy day’ fund, which included paying the army’s wage bill.

Trump's abuse of democracy is so normalized right now that everything is up for grabs. If there are not mass protests against forced disappearances, gross media censorship, and overt corruption happening daily right now, there won't be protests against him staying in office in a few years time.

I don’t think anyone will try stop him from staying in office beyond his term.

Marcos: I will award loans to people acting as fronts for my interests. Yanukovych: I will misuse carbon-emissions allowances. Suharto: I will create charities for businesspeople to make donations. Baby Doc: I will take a bit off the top of all foreign aid. Trump: Just give me the fucking money.

Are there any spontaneous mass protests at the White House yet?

Here is an actual image of the national media cycle quickly moving on from the No Kings protests...

“When our heroic law enforcement officers conduct operations, they clearly identify themselves as law enforcement,” DHS’ Tricia McLaughlin asserted, “while wearing masks to protect themselves from being targeted by highly sophisticated gangs.” By @davidmcswane.bsky.social @hannahallam.bsky.social

The only time those opposed to Trump captured the national media narrative was at the last No Kings protests (14 June). It lasted about two days and then everything defaulted back to the status quo. A social movement is essential to ousting Trump, but so are several other tactics I am not seeing.

A far larger problem than her indictment is that most Americans could not name the last five "opponents" the Trump administration has targeted using lawfare. America is so far down the rabbit hole of normalizing abuses against democracy that, sadly, this event will eclipsed by the end of the week.

“The bees are in the what now?”

Has America’s descent into authoritarianism gone quicker than I expected? Yes Did I think Americans would be more resistant to democratic backsliding? Omfg yes Is written criticism of Trump redundant? Yes Can expert opinion break through the noise? Maybe Do I think a fascist regime is next? No

Any spontaneous mass protests happening in front of the Supreme Court? No?

The thing about "bad" authoritarianism is the transparent nature of its repression, whereby dictators target their perceived enemies without a plausible justification for doing so. It is a sign of a weak regime. When you fool no one, you become the fool. www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/u...

If you thought Trump's press conference was filled with incompetence, recklessness, and cruelty, that's because being a "mad king" is part of his persona. I try to make sense of Trump's two-headed autocracy in this @thebulwark.com piece from last week... www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...

Does anyone know if there was a single *spontaneous* mass protest anywhere in the United States on Saturday? This is really important for gauging the level of resistance to democratic backsliding…

Trump is an agile, cunning, sophisticated would-be autocrat like Orban something something… Can we stop this charade already? Stop giving him so much credit? He is a bull trying to rearrange a china shop. He could be easily defeated.

"The existence of the authoritarian playbook implies that one can be evil but sane. But what motivation would a 'sane' person have for destroying the world’s leading democracy in the first place?"

In Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew used crafty tactics to suppress the likes of Bloomberg, Far Eastern Economic Review, International Herald Tribune, The Economist, The Straight Times, and The Wall Street Journal. So why do I keep reading that Orbán invented media suppression 🤬 apnews.com/article/trum...

Trump launched a frivolous lawsuit against the most important newspaper in America and it is barely a story today. It has been superseded by the next abuse. When even textbook examples of authoritarianism are normalized, it is a sign that democratic backsliding is further along than people think.

"There are other ways to resolve the contradiction between the wily authoritarian and the mad king. One is to distinguish between what we might call the ‘personal Trump’ and the ‘collective Trump.’"

Having written about the "autocrat's playbook" for many years now, I argue in this piece that Trump is fundamentally different to the likes of Chávez, Erdoğan, Fujimori, Modi, Orbán, Ortega, and Putin. His "mad king" persona means that he wrecks just about everything he touches...

PUBLISHED! I’m delighted to share my @thebulwark.com piece 🤓 I try to reconcile two opposing views of Trump: that he is a clever “playbook autocrat” who is diligently dismantling democracy; or that he is a crazy “mad king” who wrecks everything he touches Enjoy! www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...

From the world of the @nytpitchbot.bsky.social Trump files a $15 billion dollar lawsuit against us, but is he really trying to censor the press?

Historically, would-be autocrats have been normalized abuses because they implemented the playbook *slowly* and *stealthily* What is most shocking is that Trump is implementing the playbook fast and openly, but there is still no organised resistance to democratic backsliding. Normalization is rife

As I have said a few times, there will be a lag between when America objectively stops being a democracy and when people realise it is no longer a democracy. That bridge was crossed months ago in my opinion.

Unconsolidated authoritarianism? Political scientists inventing diminished subtypes on the fly to classify the United States - and, by extension, implying it is exceptional - is not a good use of our expertise, time, or energy. We have enough diminished subtypes already... #rantover

The sooner America's major media companies recognise that the United States has transitioned to authoritarianism, the better news reporting will become. Everything about this story makes sense if you tell it from the perspective of authoritarian rule, propaganda, and extraterritorial killing.

My colleague Ferran Martinez i Coma has a three year, full-time postdoc available for his Australian Research Council project "Resilient Elections: How to Strengthen Our Democracies." Great project ✔️ Awesome supervisor ✔️ Excellent department ✔️ Lovely City ✔️ jobs.smartrecruiters.com/GriffithUniv...

A new piece I wrote appearing in FOREIGN AFFAIRS today www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/warn...

At this point I really need to bin every American politics and government textbook I have in my office. Just pages and pages of outdated theory.

Can someone show me where "sinking the stock market" is in the so-called Autocrat's Playbook? If you only use this metaphor to explain Trump's success as an aspiring dictator, what metaphor are use using to account for his failures?

@tompepinsky.com did a great job describing the boring and tolerable transition to the *modal* form of authoritarian rule. But America's transition is far more chaotic. The worst features of authoritarianism manifest daily. It transitioned the moment Rumeysa Öztürk was snatched off the street.

Having studied dictatorships for 15 years, it is clear there is an “autocrat’s playbook.” But we don’t know (1) what generic techniques are in it; (2) what speed & sequencing is required; (3) what anti-book actions, like deploying troops to Chicago, does to the playbook. But nuance is irrelevant.

Nothing amazes me more than the most senior Democrats thinking they will be immune from democratic backsliding. Like, your next ffs. You may as well take a ticket at this point. For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.

Democratic backsliding has a behavioral aspect to it. Because the process is incremental, would-be autocrats are able to normalize abuse, disorient opponents, and encourage acquiescence. I fear rigging the 2026 election will just be another abuse. Non-violent civil disobedience is actually overdue

There are many ways to interpret this post - 1. Trump is *not* like other playbook autocrats as they don't announce how they will erode democracy. 2. America is skipping competitive authoritarianism and going straight to hegemonic authoritarianism. 3. The Democrats ignorance will doom them.

My expectation of how the meeting at the White House is going to go.

The summit was a success because the media is not talking about Jeffrey Epstein anymore.

Find me a political science paper that properly defines a “maximalist government” and has more than zero citations…The @nytimes.com is plucking bullshit concepts from the air to avoid the truth.

What happens next is basically an iron law of dictatorships. Fearing the consequences of passing bad news to the dictator, bureaucrats pass entirely false but good news. His ego baloons. Government announcements quickly become unreliable as the difference between fact and propaganda disappears.

I am trying to decide which institution of American democracy has failed the most to fight Trump’s authoritarianism. The nominees are - Congress Democrats Law firms Media outlets Supreme Court Universities The fact it is hard to pick one is an indictment on them all.

"They cling to the illusion that they can preserve their independence and integrity while making deals with a strongman..." I would go further: If you believe this strategy will work, you know nothing about authoritarian rule. Resistance is the *only* strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

In all my years researching authoritarian regimes, I cannot recall an opposition party so ignorant, oblivious, and naïve about the threat against them. My only hypotheses is that they are so old they lack energy or so rich they have personal security. But neither will aid their political survival 🤷‍♂️

This logic makes perfect sense if America is still a democracy. As an authoritarian regime, however, the Court shall be used to enforce social control, provide the image of a contraint on arbitrary rule, strengthen compliance among elites, and implement autocratic policies. Legitimacy is a bonus.

Does higher state capacity go together with lower risk of democratic breakdown? Many political scientists certainly believe so! Yet, in an article just published in @polstudies.bsky.social , David Andersen, @skaaning.bsky.social and I highlight important nuances to this general relationship.