If you thought Trump's press conference was filled with incompetence, recklessness, and cruelty, that's because being a "mad king" is part of his persona. I try to make sense of Trump's two-headed autocracy in this @thebulwark.com piece from last week... www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...

Does anyone know if there was a single *spontaneous* mass protest anywhere in the United States on Saturday? This is really important for gauging the level of resistance to democratic backsliding…

Trump is an agile, cunning, sophisticated would-be autocrat like Orban something something… Can we stop this charade already? Stop giving him so much credit? He is a bull trying to rearrange a china shop. He could be easily defeated.

"The existence of the authoritarian playbook implies that one can be evil but sane. But what motivation would a 'sane' person have for destroying the world’s leading democracy in the first place?"

In Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew used crafty tactics to suppress the likes of Bloomberg, Far Eastern Economic Review, International Herald Tribune, The Economist, The Straight Times, and The Wall Street Journal. So why do I keep reading that Orbán invented media suppression 🤬 apnews.com/article/trum...

Trump launched a frivolous lawsuit against the most important newspaper in America and it is barely a story today. It has been superseded by the next abuse. When even textbook examples of authoritarianism are normalized, it is a sign that democratic backsliding is further along than people think.

"There are other ways to resolve the contradiction between the wily authoritarian and the mad king. One is to distinguish between what we might call the ‘personal Trump’ and the ‘collective Trump.’"

Having written about the "autocrat's playbook" for many years now, I argue in this piece that Trump is fundamentally different to the likes of Chávez, Erdoğan, Fujimori, Modi, Orbán, Ortega, and Putin. His "mad king" persona means that he wrecks just about everything he touches...

PUBLISHED! I’m delighted to share my @thebulwark.com piece 🤓 I try to reconcile two opposing views of Trump: that he is a clever “playbook autocrat” who is diligently dismantling democracy; or that he is a crazy “mad king” who wrecks everything he touches Enjoy! www.thebulwark.com/p/crazy-or-c...

From the world of the @nytpitchbot.bsky.social Trump files a $15 billion dollar lawsuit against us, but is he really trying to censor the press?

Historically, would-be autocrats have been normalized abuses because they implemented the playbook *slowly* and *stealthily* What is most shocking is that Trump is implementing the playbook fast and openly, but there is still no organised resistance to democratic backsliding. Normalization is rife

As I have said a few times, there will be a lag between when America objectively stops being a democracy and when people realise it is no longer a democracy. That bridge was crossed months ago in my opinion.

Unconsolidated authoritarianism? Political scientists inventing diminished subtypes on the fly to classify the United States - and, by extension, implying it is exceptional - is not a good use of our expertise, time, or energy. We have enough diminished subtypes already... #rantover

The sooner America's major media companies recognise that the United States has transitioned to authoritarianism, the better news reporting will become. Everything about this story makes sense if you tell it from the perspective of authoritarian rule, propaganda, and extraterritorial killing.

My colleague Ferran Martinez i Coma has a three year, full-time postdoc available for his Australian Research Council project "Resilient Elections: How to Strengthen Our Democracies." Great project ✔️ Awesome supervisor ✔️ Excellent department ✔️ Lovely City ✔️ jobs.smartrecruiters.com/GriffithUniv...

A new piece I wrote appearing in FOREIGN AFFAIRS today www.foreignaffairs.com/germany/warn...

At this point I really need to bin every American politics and government textbook I have in my office. Just pages and pages of outdated theory.

Can someone show me where "sinking the stock market" is in the so-called Autocrat's Playbook? If you only use this metaphor to explain Trump's success as an aspiring dictator, what metaphor are use using to account for his failures?

@tompepinsky.com did a great job describing the boring and tolerable transition to the *modal* form of authoritarian rule. But America's transition is far more chaotic. The worst features of authoritarianism manifest daily. It transitioned the moment Rumeysa Öztürk was snatched off the street.

Having studied dictatorships for 15 years, it is clear there is an “autocrat’s playbook.” But we don’t know (1) what generic techniques are in it; (2) what speed & sequencing is required; (3) what anti-book actions, like deploying troops to Chicago, does to the playbook. But nuance is irrelevant.

Nothing amazes me more than the most senior Democrats thinking they will be immune from democratic backsliding. Like, your next ffs. You may as well take a ticket at this point. For my friends, everything. For my enemies, the law.

Democratic backsliding has a behavioral aspect to it. Because the process is incremental, would-be autocrats are able to normalize abuse, disorient opponents, and encourage acquiescence. I fear rigging the 2026 election will just be another abuse. Non-violent civil disobedience is actually overdue

There are many ways to interpret this post - 1. Trump is *not* like other playbook autocrats as they don't announce how they will erode democracy. 2. America is skipping competitive authoritarianism and going straight to hegemonic authoritarianism. 3. The Democrats ignorance will doom them.

My expectation of how the meeting at the White House is going to go.

The summit was a success because the media is not talking about Jeffrey Epstein anymore.

Find me a political science paper that properly defines a “maximalist government” and has more than zero citations…The @nytimes.com is plucking bullshit concepts from the air to avoid the truth.

What happens next is basically an iron law of dictatorships. Fearing the consequences of passing bad news to the dictator, bureaucrats pass entirely false but good news. His ego baloons. Government announcements quickly become unreliable as the difference between fact and propaganda disappears.

I am trying to decide which institution of American democracy has failed the most to fight Trump’s authoritarianism. The nominees are - Congress Democrats Law firms Media outlets Supreme Court Universities The fact it is hard to pick one is an indictment on them all.

"They cling to the illusion that they can preserve their independence and integrity while making deals with a strongman..." I would go further: If you believe this strategy will work, you know nothing about authoritarian rule. Resistance is the *only* strategy. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/23/o...

In all my years researching authoritarian regimes, I cannot recall an opposition party so ignorant, oblivious, and naïve about the threat against them. My only hypotheses is that they are so old they lack energy or so rich they have personal security. But neither will aid their political survival 🤷‍♂️

This logic makes perfect sense if America is still a democracy. As an authoritarian regime, however, the Court shall be used to enforce social control, provide the image of a contraint on arbitrary rule, strengthen compliance among elites, and implement autocratic policies. Legitimacy is a bonus.

Does higher state capacity go together with lower risk of democratic breakdown? Many political scientists certainly believe so! Yet, in an article just published in @polstudies.bsky.social , David Andersen, @skaaning.bsky.social and I highlight important nuances to this general relationship.

Dictating the Agenda: The Authoritarian Resurgence in World Politics by me & @cooleyoneurasia.bsky.social is now published by OUP in the USA (rest of world soon) If you are interested in why you see so many dictatorships & illiberal leaders influencing world politics then this is the book for you.

📌The special issue "Illiberal Regimes and International Organizations" is now published as Vol. 20 Issue 2 in RIO! @the-peio.bsky.social link.springer.com/journal/1155... Summary thread with each piece-- 🧵

I regret not publishing this warning in a place where more people would have read it 🙁 Bottom line: ICE now meets all five criteria to be classified as a secret police force. theconversation.com/how-ice-is-b...

Same vibes. Denis Nguesso and Donald Trump would be good friends I reckon.

One explanation for the emergence of personality cults is that they provide dictators with important signals about the "loyalty" and "unscrupulousness" of their subordinates. Are they faithful to the dictator and are they willing to engage in distasteful acts like repression? It's a yes here 🤡

So which version of Trump made this decision? The deranged mad king from the 17th century or the highly sophisticated dictator from the 21st century? Both are unhelpful analogies.

I've been experimenting with AI-proof assignments for a long time. Last semester, that meant Soviet video games and sci-fi short stories --and it worked pretty well. My latest Substack essay below. "Teaching in the Age of AI: How I avoided a shitty semester" hegemon.substack.com/p/teaching-i...

Argh there it is, the inevitable emergence of the person too stupid to know how personalist dictatorships function and yet arrogant enough to believe they would be immune to the dictator’s mad impulses. Lolz

Before people say this is the red line that marks America's transition from democratic to authoritarian rule, please remember that Rümeysa Öztürk was abducted in broad daylight by masked government agents months ago. That was the red line. Repression is the origin sin of dictatorships.

Putin gets too much credit for authorship of the so-called "Dictator's Handbook." He is like a full professor that did no work but is listed as first author. By 2012, when Russia passed its Foreign Agent Law, almost 97 other countries had already done so. Putin was an emulator, not an innovator.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... A nice acknowledgement from @mehdirhasan.bsky.social here for my article on ICE ☝️ After I wrote it, the agency started arresting Trump's political opponents. It therefore meets every criteria for being a secret police force 👇 theconversation.com/how-ice-is-b...

Another way Trump is different to Orban, Putin, Maduro, Erdogan etc is that he is openly corrupt. At least they have the sensibility to hide their corrupt acts; creating just enough ambiguity to deter lawsuits, investigations, and protests. Trump is more Amin, Duvalier, Gaddafi, Marcos, Mobutu etc.

With his arrest, ICE now meets all five criteria for being classified as a secret police force. Things will get much worse from here. theconversation.com/how-ice-is-b...

Despite frequent criticism of the @nytimes.com, it has done an excellent job in the last month warning people about the moment: America transitioned to an authoritarian regime on 25 March Here is a terrific article leaning on research on comparative authoritarianism www.nytimes.com/2025/05/08/o...

If you have "come to realize that benevolent autocracy is a myth," then perhaps your father was never a benevolent autocrat? He jailed opponents without trial; held uncompetitive elections; silenced the media using libel suits; and stifled political rights. 🤮 www.nytimes.com/2025/04/30/o...

The comparativists are making good sense of US politics: a great new piece by my old friend and collaborator @lmorgenbesser.bsky.social

At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.

PUBLISHED! I initially hesitated to write this article because the reality of it is so frightening, but the evidence became impossible to ignore. So here I argue that ICE is a secret police force in the making, which is not a claim I make lightly. Free Access - theconversation.com/how-ice-is-b...