Our paper is not just for those who care about the integrity of REDD+ credits. It is for anyone interested in robust impact evaluation in conservation. We encourage everyone to test for the influence of hidden confounders (the newish R package Sensmakr really helps). www.nature.com/articles/s41...

It is awkward to be publishing another negative paper on REDD+ credits. Many of the projects that issued too many credits slowed deforestation, & I also believe there is a role for the carbon market in funding forest conservation. But sunlight is the best disinfectant. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

While hidden confounders could explain some of the observed differences, we suggest they would need to be unrealistically large. An excellent News and Views piece by Erin Sills and Sunhrendu Pattanayak explores this in more detail. @natecoevo.nature.com www.nature.com/articles/s41...

This reminded us of the Fisher/Cornfield arguement. We decided to explore how big a hidden confounder would have to be to explain the discrepancy between what the projects claimed, and how much deforestation independent analysis suggested was delivered? www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Some in the industry have rejected these findings, saying such studies fail to account for local drivers of deforestation. If these local drivers also influence where projects are placed in the landscape, they are indeed hidden confounders. arxiv.org/abs/2312.06793

(note, the Nats Coms paper essentially confirms the finding of a expose by @theguardian.com @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social back in 2023, which claimed 90% of rainforest carbon offsets were 'worthless'.) www.theguardian.com/environment/...

I’ve become rather embroiled in the debate surrounding over-crediting in the voluntary carbon market. As our recent paper in @natcomms.nature.com shows, 1st generation REDD+ projects sold more credits than justified (10 times too many!). www.nature.com/articles/s41...

An American statistician, Cornfield, pointed out that for a confounder to be responsible, the association between the confounder & smoking, and the confounder & cancer, must be as strong as the association between smoking & cancer. No candidate could be identified. academic.oup.com/ije/article/...

By the late 1950s, it was well known that smokers were 9 times more likely to get cancer than non-smokers. However, the idea that smoking caused cancer was rejected by many, including the famous statistician RA Fisher* who argued that a hidden confounder was to blame. *had some tobacco funding

Why is the old debate about whether smoking causes cancer relevant to settling the controversy surrounding over-crediting in forest carbon offsets? Read our paper in natureecoevo.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Bright orange rivers are appearing in pristine Alaskan wilderness and across the Arctic as climate change intensifies and permafrost thaws. @janatausch.bsky.social and I investigate the spread of rust-orange water, from northwestern Canada to Svalbard, Norway. Read here: as.ft.com/r/009f223e-e...

well, well, well... "Accident halts oil drilling at the mouth of the Amazon River" www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/mac...

Nature boys and girls – here’s your chance to get published in the Guardian - Our wildlife series Young Country Diary is looking for articles written by children (8-14, in the UK), about their winter encounters with nature 👇 www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Looking back to @wwattribution.bsky.social studies in 2025 showed again, in stark terms, how unfairly the consequences of human-induced climate change are distributed. The world does not have to be like this, we have a lot of agency to make it better. www.worldweatherattribution.org/unequal-evid...

The tech industry overpromised and underdelivered on general-purpose A.I. www.newyorker.com/culture/2025...

A notably “warm” start to meteorological winter across Europe only far north of Norway, Finland and Sweden have escaped. The first half has been perhaps been the warmest on record this December though is not expected to exceed 2015... (1/2)

"Warming is going to exceed 1.5°C. We are heading into “overshoot” within the next few years. The world is going to become more turbulent and more dangerous. So, what comes after failure?" Some thoughts from Johan Rockstrom & me 10 years after Paris Agreement. theconversation.com/the-world-lo...

Good piece by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social on the current state of the carbon markets. Almost 3 years on from our investigation, the market is reforming, but has the Trump White House killed corporate interest in protecting forests? www.theguardian.com/environment/...

NEW: Just 28% of nations have released plans for reversing nature loss a year after UN deadline 🐝8/17 megadiverse yet to produce their plans, called "NBSAPs" 🪲Includes Brazil, most biodiverse nation and COP30 host 🐜All G7 nations now have a plan, except for US www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-jus...

O Brasil seria um dos primeiros a reclamar se outro país estivesse fazendo isso...

A study predicted economic damages from climate change 3x higher than previous assessments. But it was flawed -- all thanks to the data from just one country. I dug into this strange study and the researchers calling it out: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

I’m glad this extraordinary tale by @kenzabryan.ft.com is finally out. The carbon credit business is a LOT more interesting than I thought… on.ft.com/4lqMZMV

I’ll says this once: We’re spending a lot more on mitigation (e.g., renewables) than on CDR research. A lot more. It could simultaneously be true that CDR research acts as mitigation deterrence and we need to do CDR research. Trees will not be enough to reduce atmospheric CO₂.

I categorically disagree with claims that CO₂ removal (CDR) is a scam. The field is full of smart people dedicated to figuring out what, if anything, works, because we’ll need CDR in the future for legacy and residual emissions. Funding via market mechanisms isn’t ideal, but doesn’t make it a scam.

Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows Burning, worsened by the #climatecrisis, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests Story by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Russia has returned the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna. Her body showed clear signs of torture: broken ribs, bruises, injuries from electric shocks. Some of her internal organs, including her eyeballs, brain and trachea, had been removed. Viktoria was 27 years old.

I've put together a webpage with country-level charts that @glenpeters.bsky.social and I produce. Currently 89 countries, not all with same charts. More to come, including data downloads. Explore for yourself here: robbieandrew.github.io/country/

"A proposal for such a levy, which has the support of scores of developing countries, the EU and the UK, is under discussion at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, in talks that started last month and resume next week before finishing on 11 April.”

This is an important piece By @ben-spencer.bsky.social www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn My reporting from Narsaq - with Phoebe Weston 👇 www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Governments reached a deal at #Cop16 in Rome last night. But it is clear that this decade's biodiversity agreement is already on life support. Phoebe Weston reports from the Italian capital www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Nations have finalised a document for planning, monitoring, reporting, and review (PMRR) in plenary at #COP16 There was just one outstanding issue – in classic COP fashion – with a footnote, which has been resolved Formal adoption of documents won't happen until later tonight, final plenary at 9pm

Under 3 years ago, countries set a big global pledge to protect 30% of Earth for nature by 2030 But our new investigation shows more than half of nations aren't willing to back 30 by 30 within their borders We found this out by digging through 100s of UN docs www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-mor...

Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome – but will enough countries turn up? Phoebe Weston previews #Cop16 in Rome www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Get submitting

🥁 It's that time of year again... We know you've all been waiting for it... Submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards! 🎉

In late 2022, the world agreed to protect 30% of the planet for nature. Now, more than half the world’s countries have no plans to deliver on the target, according to analysis by Carbon Brief & The Guardian. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

If you are a researcher who has been affected by this kind of thing, get in contact: [email protected] .

as we finish up 2024, here are a few favourite pieces published by the age of extinction (nature @ the guardian). I take freelance pitches too, so will add some notes on pitching to this thread & hope it's a generally a useful rundown of work we do and how we approach it. in no specific order:

An All-Star roster of climate scientists cleared their throats recently and it was something to behold. Their message to Net-Zero experts in every sector? You're Doing It Wrong 🧪 www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

A significant issue with the #COP29 text on climate finance is how it deals with inflation (it doesn't). Money decreases in value over time. $250bn now is not the same as $250bn in 2035... The text allows inflation to make the target easier to meet. 1/3

At #Cop29, it looks like we still have a long wait for a serious negotiating text www.theguardian.com/environment/...

#COP29 NEW TEXTS Drafts landed overnight… Central fight remains – finance vs fossil fuel NCQG: "billions" vs "trillions" MWP: No fossil ref UAE dialogue: Limited GST follow-up; FF ref not agreed GGA: Fight over finance refs Article 6: Deals close JTWP: Many "options" www.carbonbrief.org/...#COP291/8

Interesting to see Lula urge G20 leaders to bring forward net-zero goals to 2040 or 2045. The group represents 85% of planet-warming emissions. www.reuters.com/world/g20-le...

After all the showing off from Argentina over the last few days...

Looks like Milei blinked when faced with being left isolated alone with Trump... “Milei's government confirms that Argentina will not abandon the Paris Agreement: ‘We are not leaving’” www.elobservador.com.uy/estados-unid...

China and India should no longer be treated as developing countries in the same way as some of the poorest African nations are, according to a growing number of delegates from poorer country at the #Cop29 UN climate talks My report with Fiona Harvey from Baku www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Recall that Swiss Re's Changing Climates report listed the Philippines as undergoing by far the worst economic losses from climate change of any country.

Softening the definition of Net Zero won’t stop global warming. As authors of the 2009 “Net Zero Papers” we call on countries and companies to recognise the need for Geological Net Zero, balancing flows of carbon into and out of the Earth’s crust. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

+++NEW ANALYSIS: China’s CO2 emissions have now caused more global warming than EU+++ Our new analysis comes as the "principle of historical responsibility" is being cited in #COP29 talks on a new climate finance goal THREAD with details, caveats + bonus chart www.carbonbrief.org/...#COP291/12