Patrick Greenfield
@pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
đ€ 2750
đ„ 118
đ 22
Reporter @guardian covering biodiversity and the environment.
[email protected]
| Former @CNN
reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
Our paper is not just for those who care about the integrity of REDD+ credits. It is for anyone interested in robust impact evaluation in conservation. We encourage everyone to test for the influence of hidden confounders (the newish R package Sensmakr really helps).
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Causal inference should quantify the sensitivity of results to hidden confounders (variables affecting both the location of projects and outcomes). The importance of this is illustrated using analysis...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-026-03049-7
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
It is awkward to be publishing another negative paper on REDD+ credits. Many of the projects that issued too many credits slowed deforestation, & I also believe there is a role for the carbon market in funding forest conservation. But sunlight is the best disinfectant.
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Scandal in the voluntary carbon market must not impede tropical forest conservation - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Recent media coverage gives the impression that the very idea of tackling climate change by slowing tropical deforestation is a scam â this is not true and the idea could harm forests.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02442-4
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
While hidden confounders could explain some of the observed differences, we suggest they would need to be unrealistically large. An excellent News and Views piece by Erin Sills and Sunhrendu Pattanayak explores this in more detail.
@natecoevo.nature.com
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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A stress test for unobserved confounders - Nature Ecology & Evolution
REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus sustainable management of forests and the conservation and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries) project...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-026-03078-2
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
This reminded us of the Fisher/Cornfield arguement. We decided to explore how big a hidden confounder would have to be to explain the discrepancy between what the projects claimed, and how much deforestation independent analysis suggested was delivered?
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Unobserved confounders cannot explain over-crediting in avoided deforestation carbon projects - Nature Ecology & Evolution
Causal inference should quantify the sensitivity of results to hidden confounders (variables affecting both the location of projects and outcomes). The importance of this is illustrated using analysis...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-026-03049-7
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
Some in the industry have rejected these findings, saying such studies fail to account for local drivers of deforestation. If these local drivers also influence where projects are placed in the landscape, they are indeed hidden confounders.
arxiv.org/abs/2312.06793
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Serious errors impair an assessment of forest carbon projects: A rebuttal of West et al. (2023)
Independent retrospective analyses of the effectiveness of reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) projects are vital to ensure climate change benefits are being delivered. A recent study...
https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06793
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
(note, the Nats Coms paper essentially confirms the finding of a expose by
@theguardian.com
@pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
back in 2023, which claimed 90% of rainforest carbon offsets were 'worthless'.)
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Revealed: more than 90% of rainforest carbon offsets by biggest certifier are worthless, analysis shows
Investigation into Verra carbon standard finds most are âphantom creditsâ and may worsen global heating
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/18/revealed-forest-carbon-offsets-biggest-provider-worthless-verra-aoe
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
Iâve become rather embroiled in the debate surrounding over-crediting in the voluntary carbon market. As our recent paper in
@natcomms.nature.com
shows, 1st generation REDD+ projects sold more credits than justified (10 times too many!).
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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Learning lessons from over-crediting to ensure additionality in forest carbon credits - Nature Communications
REDD+ projects reduced deforestation, but less than claimed. Synthesising 44 projects, this study finds about 11 times over-crediting due to selection bias in control areas and modelling approaches an...
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-71552-3
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
An American statistician, Cornfield, pointed out that for a confounder to be responsible, the association between the confounder & smoking, and the confounder & cancer, must be as strong as the association between smoking & cancer. No candidate could be identified.
academic.oup.com/ije/article/...
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Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions*
Abstract. Summary This report reviews some of the more recent epidemiologic and experimental findings on the relationship of tobacco smoking to lung cancer
https://academic.oup.com/ije/article/38/5/1175/666926
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
By the late 1950s, it was well known that smokers were 9 times more likely to get cancer than non-smokers. However, the idea that smoking caused cancer was rejected by many, including the famous statistician RA Fisher* who argued that a hidden confounder was to blame. *had some tobacco funding
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Julia PG Jones
16 days ago
Why is the old debate about whether smoking causes cancer relevant to settling the controversy surrounding over-crediting in forest carbon offsets? Read our paper in
natureecoevo.bsky.social
www.nature.com/articles/s41...
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Eva Xiao
3 months ago
Bright orange rivers are appearing in pristine Alaskan wilderness and across the Arctic as climate change intensifies and permafrost thaws.
@janatausch.bsky.social
and I investigate the spread of rust-orange water, from northwestern Canada to Svalbard, Norway. Read here:
as.ft.com/r/009f223e-e...
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https://as.ft.com/r/009f223e-eb79-49fb-aa1e-4665008ad0a1
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Akshat Rathi
5 months ago
well, well, well... "Accident halts oil drilling at the mouth of the Amazon River"
www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/mac...
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Acidente paralisa perfuração na Foz do Amazonas | CNN Brasil
Vazamento de fluĂdo de perfuração vai paralisar atividades no poço por um perĂodo entre 10 e 15 dias
https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/economia/macroeconomia/acidente-paralisa-perfuracao-na-foz-do-amazonas/
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Damian Carrington
5 months ago
Nature boys and girls â hereâs your chance to get published in the Guardian - Our wildlife series Young Country Diary is looking for articles written by children (8-14, in the UK), about their winter encounters with nature đ
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Nature boys and girls â hereâs your chance to get published in the Guardian
Our wildlife series Young Country Diary is looking for articles written by children, about their winter encounters with nature
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/27/nature-lovers-guardian-young-country-diary-writers
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Prof Friederike Otto
5 months ago
Looking back to
@wwattribution.bsky.social
studies in 2025 showed again, in stark terms, how unfairly the consequences of human-induced climate change are distributed. The world does not have to be like this, we have a lot of agency to make it better.
www.worldweatherattribution.org/unequal-evid...
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
The New Yorker
5 months ago
The tech industry overpromised and underdelivered on general-purpose A.I.
www.newyorker.com/culture/2025...
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Why A.I. Didnât Transform Our Lives in 2025
This was supposed to be the year when autonomous agents took over everyday tasks. The tech industry overpromised and underdelivered.
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/2025-in-review/why-ai-didnt-transform-our-lives-in-2025
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
London & Southeastđ
5 months ago
A notably âwarmâ start to meteorological winter across Europe only far north of Norway, Finland and Sweden have escaped. The first half has been perhaps been the warmest on record this December though is not expected to exceed 2015... (1/2)
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
James Dyke
6 months ago
"Warming is going to exceed 1.5°C. We are heading into âovershootâ within the next few years. The world is going to become more turbulent and more dangerous. So, what comes after failure?" Some thoughts from Johan Rockstrom & me 10 years after Paris Agreement.
theconversation.com/the-world-lo...
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The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality
The world bet on collective but voluntary action to keep global warming at a safe level.
https://theconversation.com/the-world-lost-the-climate-gamble-now-it-faces-a-dangerous-new-reality-270392
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Luke Barratt
7 months ago
Good piece by
@pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
on the current state of the carbon markets. Almost 3 years on from our investigation, the market is reforming, but has the Trump White House killed corporate interest in protecting forests?
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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âThere is no moneyâ: As carbon markets collapse, what happens to the forests they promised to protect?
After it was found most offsets did not represent real carbon reductions, the money dried up. But successful schemes such as Kasigau in Kenya now face a stark future
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/nov/06/carbon-offsetting-market-collapses-what-happens-to-the-forests-they-hoped-to-protect-aoe
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Daisy Dunne
7 months ago
NEW: Just 28% of nations have released plans for reversing nature loss a year after UN deadline đ8/17 megadiverse yet to produce their plans, called "NBSAPs" đȘČIncludes Brazil, most biodiverse nation and COP30 host đAll G7 nations now have a plan, except for US
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-jus...
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O Brasil seria um dos primeiros a reclamar se outro paĂs estivesse fazendo isso...
add a skeleton here at some point
9 months ago
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Shannon Osaka
10 months ago
A study predicted economic damages from climate change 3x higher than previous assessments. But it was flawed -- all thanks to the data from just one country. I dug into this strange study and the researchers calling it out:
www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...
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A study predicted huge climate damages. But it had a fatal flaw: Uzbekistan.
Uzbekistanâs erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2025/08/06/nature-study-flawed-climate-damages/
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Robin Wigglesworth
11 months ago
Iâm glad this extraordinary tale by
@kenzabryan.ft.com
is finally out. The carbon credit business is a LOT more interesting than I thoughtâŠ
on.ft.com/4lqMZMV
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The extraordinary life and mysterious death of a carbon credits broker
How an Italian fugitive used diplomatic immunity to work with Dubai royalty and Liberiaâs fallen hero
https://on.ft.com/4lqMZMV
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
David Ho
about 1 year ago
Iâll says this once: Weâre spending a lot more on mitigation (e.g., renewables) than on CDR research. A lot more. It could simultaneously be true that CDR research acts as mitigation deterrence and we need to do CDR research. Trees will not be enough to reduce atmospheric COâ.
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
David Ho
about 1 year ago
I categorically disagree with claims that COâ removal (CDR) is a scam. The field is full of smart people dedicated to figuring out what, if anything, works, because weâll need CDR in the future for legacy and residual emissions. Funding via market mechanisms isnât ideal, but doesnât make it a scam.
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Damian Carrington
about 1 year ago
Fires drove record loss of worldâs forests last year, âfrighteningâ data shows Burning, worsened by the
#climatecrisis
, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests Story by
@pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Fires drove record loss of worldâs forests last year, âfrighteningâ data shows
Burning, worsened by global heating, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/may/21/fires-record-loss-forests-global-heating-agriculture-logging-brazil-bolivia-aoe
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Stanislav Aseyev
about 1 year ago
Russia has returned the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna. Her body showed clear signs of torture: broken ribs, bruises, injuries from electric shocks. Some of her internal organs, including her eyeballs, brain and trachea, had been removed. Viktoria was 27 years old.
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She tried to expose Russiaâs brutal detention system â and ended up dead
A consortium of international journalists continued the work of Viktoriia Roshchyna, who was investigating reports of torture and detention of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2025/russia-detention-ukraine-civilians-occupation/?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwJ9xQRleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHhmGdJAwdUYOqPqSmF0kQ8jc0h7xk6qBA54gqhosKkZcOTSAd56-XaAW1XLA_aem_Lj3n5f5UkpxVgwzaD3uMJA
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Robbie Andrew
about 1 year ago
I've put together a webpage with country-level charts that
@glenpeters.bsky.social
and I produce. Currently 89 countries, not all with same charts. More to come, including data downloads. Explore for yourself here:
robbieandrew.github.io/country/
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Covering Climate Now
about 1 year ago
"A proposal for such a levy, which has the support of scores of developing countries, the EU and the UK, is under discussion at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, in talks that started last month and resume next week before finishing on 11 April.â
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This is an important piece By
@ben-spencer.bsky.social
www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...
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Weâve failed to stop climate change â this is what we need to do next
While we can still limit warming by cutting emissions, we now face having to adapt to more extreme weather
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/environment/article/climate-change-adaptation-decarbonisation-times-earth-93jln78vd
about 1 year ago
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Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn My reporting from Narsaq - with Phoebe Weston đ
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn
The island is being sued by a mining company over its decision, and faces paying nine times its annual budget in damages if it loses
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/mar/05/greenland-mining-energy-transition-minerals-environmental-laws-uranium-rare-earth-toxic-waste-investor-state-dispute-settlement-isds-aoe
about 1 year ago
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Governments reached a deal at
#Cop16
in Rome last night. But it is clear that this decade's biodiversity agreement is already on life support. Phoebe Weston reports from the Italian capital
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Cop16 nature summit agrees deal at 11th hour but critics say it is not enough
UN biodiversity conference in Rome ends with fragile accord but questions remain over whether funding will emerge
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/28/cop-16-climate-nature-funding-agreement
about 1 year ago
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Patrick Greenfield
Daisy Dunne
about 1 year ago
Nations have finalised a document for planning, monitoring, reporting, and review (PMRR) in plenary at
#COP16
There was just one outstanding issue â in classic COP fashion â with a footnote, which has been resolved Formal adoption of documents won't happen until later tonight, final plenary at 9pm
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Daisy Dunne
about 1 year ago
Under 3 years ago, countries set a big global pledge to protect 30% of Earth for nature by 2030 But our new investigation shows more than half of nations aren't willing to back 30 by 30 within their borders We found this out by digging through 100s of UN docs
www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-mor...
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Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome â but will enough countries turn up? Phoebe Weston previews
#Cop16
in Rome
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome â but will enough countries turn up?
After last yearâs Cop16 biodiversity talks in Cali left key issues unresolved, the extra summit will attempt to seek consensus, especially over funding
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/25/nature-crucial-cop16-biodiversity-talks-rome-cali-funding-aoe
about 1 year ago
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Get submitting
add a skeleton here at some point
about 1 year ago
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Covering Climate Now
over 1 year ago
đ„ It's that time of year again... We know you've all been waiting for it... Submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards! đ
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The Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards â Covering Climate Now
Entry submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards. This is the fifth year for our annual awards program, and every year weâre amazed by the quality and variety of work ent...
https://coveringclimatenow.org/projects/awards/
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In late 2022, the world agreed to protect 30% of the planet for nature. Now, more than half the worldâs countries have no plans to deliver on the target, according to analysis by Carbon Brief & The Guardian.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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More than half of countries are ignoring biodiversity pledges â analysis
Many of the nations gathering in Rome for Cop16 have offered no plans to honour their agreement to protect 30% of land and sea for nature
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2025/feb/24/countries-biodiversity-pledges-rome-cop16-aoe?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
about 1 year ago
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If you are a researcher who has been affected by this kind of thing, get in contact:
[email protected]
.
add a skeleton here at some point
over 1 year ago
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Tess McClure
over 1 year ago
as we finish up 2024, here are a few favourite pieces published by the age of extinction (nature @ the guardian). I take freelance pitches too, so will add some notes on pitching to this thread & hope it's a generally a useful rundown of work we do and how we approach it. in no specific order:
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Eric Roston
over 1 year ago
An All-Star roster of climate scientists cleared their throats recently and it was something to behold. Their message to Net-Zero experts in every sector? You're Doing It Wrong đ§Ș
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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Scientists Behind âNet Zeroâ Concept Say Nations Are Getting It Wrong
In a new study, high-profile climate scientists say countries are using flawed carbon accounting by relying too heavily on trees and oceans to absorb new carbon emissions.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-03/scientists-behind-net-zero-concept-say-nations-are-getting-it-wrong?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTczMzMyNzM1MCwiZXhwIjoxNzMzOTMyMTUwLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTTlg1R0ZEV1gyUFQwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiJGMkY1NTFERTc4ODA0RkJBOTk5NEFBMTQ5RTM1NjQ3RCJ9.dXQ3ra_cY9W4vaE6qfvIbGvc-6uyb0rMWVymAXbWwgU
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A significant issue with the
#COP29
text on climate finance is how it deals with inflation (it doesn't). Money decreases in value over time. $250bn now is not the same as $250bn in 2035... The text allows inflation to make the target easier to meet. 1/3
over 1 year ago
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At
#Cop29
, it looks like we still have a long wait for a serious negotiating text
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Cop29 climate finance deal hits fresh setback as deadline looms
Outcry after draft text contains only an âXâ instead of setting $1tn funding goal to support developing countries
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/21/cop29-climate-finance-deal-setback-draft-text-global-goal
over 1 year ago
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Simon Evans
over 1 year ago
#COP29 NEW TEXTS Drafts landed overnight⊠Central fight remains â finance vs fossil fuel NCQG: "billions" vs "trillions" MWP: No fossil ref UAE dialogue: Limited GST follow-up; FF ref not agreed GGA: Fight over finance refs Article 6: Deals close JTWP: Many "options"
www.carbonbrief.org/...
#COP29
1/8
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Akshat Rathi
over 1 year ago
Interesting to see Lula urge G20 leaders to bring forward net-zero goals to 2040 or 2045. The group represents 85% of planet-warming emissions.
www.reuters.com/world/g20-le...
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G20 leaders turn focus to climate change on Rio summit's last day
Leaders meet to discuss sustainable development and the transition to cleaner energy.
https://www.reuters.com/world/g20-leaders-turn-focus-climate-change-rio-summits-last-day-2024-11-19/
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After all the showing off from Argentina over the last few days...
add a skeleton here at some point
over 1 year ago
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Patrick Greenfield
Leo Hickman
over 1 year ago
Looks like Milei blinked when faced with being left isolated alone with Trump... âMilei's government confirms that Argentina will not abandon the Paris Agreement: âWe are not leavingââ
www.elobservador.com.uy/estados-unid...
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El gobierno de Milei confirma que Argentina no abandona el Acuerdo de ParĂs: âNo nos vamosâ
El canciller Gerardo Werthein descartĂł ante este medio la salida de Argentina del Acuerdo de ParĂs. AdemĂĄs, anticipĂł que el presidente Javier Milei viajarĂĄ al Foro de Davos en enero prĂłximo. Lo dijo d...
https://www.elobservador.com.uy/estados-unidos/politica/el-gobierno-milei-confirma-que-argentina-no-abandona-el-acuerdo-paris-no-nos-vamos-n5970950
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China and India should no longer be treated as developing countries in the same way as some of the poorest African nations are, according to a growing number of delegates from poorer country at the
#Cop29
UN climate talks My report with Fiona Harvey from Baku
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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China and India should not be called developing countries, several Cop29 delegates say
Delegates from poorer nations say classifications that date back to 1992 are obsolete and two countries âshould be contributingâ
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/19/china-india-developing-countries-cop29-climate-talks
over 1 year ago
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Patrick Greenfield
Dave Vetter
over 1 year ago
Recall that Swiss Re's Changing Climates report listed the Philippines as undergoing by far the worst economic losses from climate change of any country.
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reposted by
Patrick Greenfield
Reto Knutti
over 1 year ago
Softening the definition of Net Zero wonât stop global warming. As authors of the 2009 âNet Zero Papersâ we call on countries and companies to recognise the need for Geological Net Zero, balancing flows of carbon into and out of the Earthâs crust.
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
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Countries could use nature to âcheatâ on net zero targets, scientists warn
By relying on natural carbon sinks such as forests and peatlands to offset emissions, governments can appear closer to goals than they actually are
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/nov/18/countries-nature-cheat-net-zero-targets-paris-agreement-cop29
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Patrick Greenfield
Simon Evans
over 1 year ago
+++NEW ANALYSIS: Chinaâs CO2 emissions have now caused more global warming than EU+++ Our new analysis comes as the "principle of historical responsibility" is being cited in #COP29 talks on a new climate finance goal THREAD with details, caveats + bonus chart
www.carbonbrief.org/...
#COP29
1/12
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