"The UK risks remaining trapped in the doom loop: each attempt to“restore control” undermines the very economic and social foundations on which durable political consent depends." Great @jdportes.bsky.social on "Brexit" or wider "Migration Paradox" 👇

Strenger migratiebeleid botst met arbeidsmarktkrapte, vergrijzing en de cijfers waarop onze welvaartsstaat steunt. 25 maart gaan we daar dieper op in met: 🎤Eva Van Belle (VUB) 🎤Hielke Van Doorslaer (Denktank Minerva) 🎤Jasmijn Slootjes (MPI Europe) 🎤Flor Didden (11.11.11) buff.ly/364KnAw

La política económica desplegada en España desde la pandemia ha sido muy distinta a la que se implementó durante la crisis financiera de 2008. ¿Hemos asistido a un cambio de paradigma? @jorgeuxo.bsky.social y yo respondemos a esta pregunta en este nuevo paper. link.springer.com/epdf/10.1007...

🎤 Publieksavond De Migratieparadox 📅 25 maart – CC De Markten, Brussel ➡️@hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) ➡️@jasmijnslootjes.bsky.social (Migration Policy Institute Europe) ➡️Eva Van Belle (VUB) ➡️@flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) 🎟️ Gratis, inschrijven 👇 www.denktankminerva.be/activiteiten...

💥"De Belgische werknemers brachten meer geld in het laatje voor hun werkgevers, maar kregen die extra opbrengst niet doorgerekend in hun loon ... Het stuk extra taart dat werd gebakken, is opgegeten aan één zijde van de tafel." 💥

Voor zij die niet het hele @denktankminerva.be rapport willen doorploegen, maar toch de kernpunten willen mee hebben: hieronder de TLDR of een overzichtelijk🧵 . 👇

We schieten onszelf economisch en demografisch in de voet met het "strengste asiel- en migratiebeleid ooit". - @hielkevd.bsky.social (www.sampol.be/2026/02/de-m...) @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social

Loonvoordeel van België tov buurlanden loopt zelfs op tot meer dan 5% als je alle cadeaus (loonsubsidies ed.) aan bedrijven meerekent. Dat doet de loonnormwet niet. Dat is gewoon loondumping.

"The inflow of migrants by 2030 is now expected to be significantly lower than previously forecast after the government tightened migration policy." 🤫 . . 😗 www.denktankminerva.be/onderzoek/20... www.ft.com/content/7b15...

Do wages drive inflation, or does inflation drive wages? A new paper for Switzerland finds inflation strongly influences wage growth, but wages have only a weak effect on prices. Inflation is driven more by imports, expectations, and economic slack than by wage pressures.

BDW is fout als hij "red tape" als belangrijkste reden achter de 'teloorgang' van de Europese industrie ziet. - regelgeving is de afgelopen 15 jaar niet noemenswaardig gestegen (OESO) - winst door "cutting red tape" amper 0,07% v EU BBP (Commissie) www.politico.eu/article/euro...

EU Leaders meet tomorrow to discuss measures to lift Europe's anaemic growth rate. But the summit risks turning into a nothing burger. EU Leaders have cherry-picked a macroeconomically meaningless simplification agenda from the Draghi report New oped. 1/ www.politico.eu/article/euro...

When EU leaders meet tomorrow to discuss the EU’s competitiveness agenda, they should stop chasing ghosts and confront the real problem Europe‘s economy is facing. Our latest for @politico.eu with @nilsredeker.bsky.social and @sandertordoir.bsky.social 👇

“Strengste migratiebeleid ooit” botst met de feiten: 'De migratieparadox'. Onderzoek @hielkevd.bsky.social op Denktank Minerva👇 www.denktankminerva.be/onderzoek/20...

We schieten onszelf economisch en demografisch in de voet met het "strengste asiel- en migratiebeleid ooit", stelt @hielkevd.bsky.social van @denktankminerva.be. "In de praktijk komt 'nulmigratie' altijd neer op economische zelfverminking." (www.sampol.be/2026/02/de-m...)

Onderzoek voor @denktankminerva.be , op @vrtnws.be : 💬 "Wie migratie wil terugdringen, moet eerlijk zijn: dat betekent hogere pensioendruk, onbetaalbare zorg en een kleinere economie." 💡 Lees het hele rapport hier: lnkd.in/ey3kZvWF www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/20...

Nieuw onderzoek voor @denktankminerva.be: 💬 “Een open en welvarende economie gaat niet samen met minder migratie. De vraag is dan: waarop wil je inzetten?” Lees het hele dossier hier: www.denktankminerva.be/onderzoek/20... www.standaard.be/economie/onz...

On the merits of more (green) fiscal vigor: "by 2050, investment needs worsen primary balance by less than 0.1% of GDP, while avoided economic losses from physical risks and associated revenue losses exceed 0.4% of GDP, resulting in a net fiscal gain of around 0.4% of GDP." cepr.org/voxeu/column...

🔴REPLAY available! Catch @lucaschancel.bsky.social's keynote from the #TaxingBillionaires' conference (April 8): ☑️ Latest findings on global #wealthinequality ☑️ Reflections on billionaire #taxation ☑️ World Inequality Database's methodology and tools ▶️ Watch here youtu.be/WffeqGy-LKI?...

💡 "The West needs people. Currently, few of its countries have a rising population growth rate. Unless they embrace migration, they will experience a sharp demographic decline that will prevent them from keeping their economies and public services afloat." www.nytimes.com/2026/02/04/o...

Article limpide sur l'indépendance des banques centrales ! Dans le contexte européen, le problème n'est pas l'indépendance de la BCE mais l'absence quasi totale de débat démocratique sur son mandat depuis 1992 et le Traité de Maastricht... www.alternatives-economiques.fr/anne-laure-d...

"Every day we are reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry. That the rules-based order is fading. That the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must." Carney's full epochal speech at Davos: paulwells.substack.com/p/the-carney...

"A stronger euro would enhance European resilience, by expanding protections from US sanctions, helping to insulate EU's economy from swings in foreign exchange rates, & by securing better financing conditions for EU governments, businesses, and households" www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/a-g...

Wow... Writing this paper was a bit like watching a soap opera unfold. But it's out now in @bjpir.bsky.social The big story is still: The ECB marched forward, with clear democratic authorisation, but not the Fed. Green central banking is much more democratic than people think.

📄 Under the EU’s new economic governance framework, the Debt Sustainability Analysis #DSA plays a growing role in shaping national budgets. A recent ETUI paper by research associate, Christos Pierros, argues that this framework systematically undervalues public investment. 🔎 Read more: etui.org/4ZG

Trump wil de FED onder zijn controle. Onafhankelijkheid van centrale banken staat onder druk. Maar is depolitisering wel democratisch? @mattvermeir.bsky.social (UGent) pleit voor debat over democratisering van monetair beleid. www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/trump...

ASEAN is emerging as a leader in transport electrification, with rapidly rising EV shares now outpacing legacy auto markets. 🇻🇳 Viet Nam: 38% of new car sales in 2025, double of 2024’s 🇸🇬 Singapore: 45% 🇹🇭 Thailand: 21% 🇮🇩 Indonesia: 15% https://loom.ly/pMmY5Y8

"Around Europe, labor parties have alienated their base by forming grand coalitions with the center-right . In Denmark, Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats have pursued this strategy with the same dismal results." From my analysis Jacobin on the state of Danish politics after the local elections

That plot on real exports is brutal. Like a live view of the ECB going through the five stages of grief over the death of export-led growth. Seems we're one projection away from acceptance.

According to Oxford professor of energy Jan Rosenow, rapid electrification of Europe's industry, not rolling back the EU's Green Deal, will save European industry.

IMF: "only about half of fiscal consolidations achieve their fiscal targets, including debt reduction. A broad range of econometric methods, based on well-established methods in the empirical literature, confirm that fiscal consolidations do not reduce debt ratios, on average."

Impossible to repost or discuss this chart too many times. A tale of two crises & two policy responses. One of them we still inexplicably talk about as a success, & one we still inexplicably talk about as a failure. 1.5 years of modestly high inflation did a number on us.

Migratie kost miljarden? 📉 Niet volgens NBB, OESO en IMF. 📈 Migratie zorgt voor groei, jobs en een sterkere welvaartsstaat. Analyse van @hielkevd.bsky.social (Denktank Minerva) & @flordidden.bsky.social (@11.be) op @sampolmaandblad.bsky.social en hier 👇 🔗 www.denktankminerva.be/opinie/de-op...

How dare you accuse me of saying “threshold”.

Mockery (and insults) have been part of anyone going against the established consensus (including me), but now even the IMF agrees... 😎 www.ugent.be/ps/politieke...

Crystal-clear policy implications:

💥🤯Shocking findings from this new IMF working paper: inflation outcomes were similar between inflation targeting and non-inflation targeting countries, despite more aggressive rate hikes by the former. 🔗 Read more: www.imf.org/en/Publicati... #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation #CentralBanks

Now out in Party Politics 🎉 Our study (@jbpilet.bsky.social)suggests that when a mainstream right-wing party signals willingness to rule with the radical right, support for the radical right rises — while the mainstream gains nothing. 👉 A legitimisation effect. journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

"To help unlock the investments needed to achieve energy sovereignty, and ensure we stop handing over billions of dollars a year to the Kremlin, we urge you to push for spending on renewable and low-carbon energy to be counted as part of the Nato 1.5% target." 👏 www.theguardian.com/environment/...

📢 New paper out in New Political Economy: "Depoliticising monetary tightening: how the European Central Bank managed the 2021–2023 inflation shock" Thread here below 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

On the macroeconomic dividend of public investment: 🙏 "Each euro of public investment generates approximately €1.30 in inflation-adjusted output within three years—a cumulative multiplier of 1.3." 👉 Great and necessary piece by @heimbergecon.bsky.social www.socialeurope.eu/europe-needs...

We show that interest rate hikes by central banks are less powerful in reducing inflation than conventional wisdom suggests. Correcting for publication bias, the output cost of reducing inflation increases. Based on our meta-study of 145,000 point estimates and confidence bounds.

+1,5 miljoen werkenden tussen 1996 & 2023 Maar werkgeversbijdragen aan sociale zekerheid: 50% → <40% Gevolg: overheid vult het gat met hogere belastingen of schulden. Geen economische wet, maar politieke keuze. Tijd voor eerlijk debat: wie draagt bij, wie profiteert?

The car crisis tops today’s EU summit but leaders keep staring at the wrong problem The issue isn’t the 2035 engine ban - it’s demand falling off a cliff today With @sandertordoir.bsky.social and @lucasguttenberg.bsky.social, we show why flipping regs won’t help - and what the EU can do instead.

15 (!) keer méér managementvennootschappen sinds 2010. Explosieve groei.

"Loonmatiging heeft helaas een geringere productiviteitsgroei tot gevolg. Zo schatten Vergeer en Kleinknecht dat 1 procentpunt minder reële loonstijging tussen 0,32 en 0,46 procent minder groei van de toegevoegde waarde per arbeidsuur tot gevolg heeft." esb.nu/verhoog-nede...

De teruglopende ontvangsten van staat en sociale zekerheid, een bewuste politieke keuze, dragen veruit het grootste deel van de verantwoordelijkheid voor de oplopende begrotingstekorten. 👇

Monitoringcomité juli 2024 vs. september 2025: → Bijna NEGEN MILJARD (!) MINDER INKOMSTEN voor federale overheid & sociale zekerheid door beleid-De Wever. Welk begrotingstekort? 🤷

🚨 Hugely important message to EU and national leaders: 💥 Forget deregulation drive and ill-guided focus on fiscal consolidation. Ignite public investment boom and focus on domestic growth drivers. 🙏 History will thank you later.