To be honest, I have long thought that national VI polls - which have driven SO much media narrative - have been meaningless. Not only is there tons of dodgy sample floating around, but it's also a reflection of people's dislike of KS and Labour more than an expression of support for Farage and Ref

Why Burnham should go early. Making the case for a snap election in @arguablymag.bsky.social www.arguably.uk/p/dont-be-a-...

Very good piece, especially if - like me - you are following all advice regarding windows and blinds, but your home is still 10bn degrees celsius

remarkable that prominent political journalists who literally do this for a living insist on saying Al 'Cairns' - it's just not his name, and it's really not very hard to get right

I was asked to explain the Starmer situation in football terms to a non-political friend, and the best I could come up with was Assou-Ekotto or Ben White becoming a manger, despite no interest in football, outsourcing all decisions to coaches, having no plan/style, and not telling them what he wants

Really interesting stuff from the newest pollsters on the block

A 4th poll in Makerfield since candidates named, by Convergent, British Polling Council member www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/...

George is absolutely right. Total paralysis at the moment as politicians of all stripes just continually lie to themselves, each other, and the public.

UK DEFENCE MINISTER HEALEY RESIGNS

Today I've written for Arguably on one big mystery in our public life: why does no-one care about the existential crisis of our universities? Read all about it... 👇 www.arguably.uk/p/the-quiet-...

excellent from Glen @gsoh31.bsky.social as always

Very Bluesky replies/QTs on point 1 It's not that complicated: - no sense of what he is PM for - poor policy choices - pretends there are no trade offs - dreadful communicator - annoying voice - stubborn and slow to react - boring - looks like a generic bureaucrat - Tory legacy inheritance

I don't believe he means this cos if he does he has lost the plot

Tony Blair's missing project – @torstenbell.bsky.social writes for Arguably on how Blair has failed to grapple with the real choices on austerity, welfare, tax and energy. www.arguably.uk/p/tony-blair...

This is sharp from James Meadway in his interview with Arguably on the “hard truths” that any left project must face. www.arguably.uk/p/what-do-th...

VG from @meadwaj.bsky.social on Green econ policy, eg this on wealth taxes: "The challenge politically, is this does not solve all your problems.. perhaps £10bn... The amount you want to spend on improving public services is an order of magnitude greater" www.arguably.uk/p/what-do-th...

Really interesting back and forth between James Meadway and @georgeeaton.bsky.social:

To fix the social care crisis, Labour needs a “big bang” for the state, writes @danmead.bsky.social. www.arguably.uk/p/how-to-fix...

The battle of ideas has started in Labour and social care is back on the news agenda. This is another area where "incremental change won't cut it". In @arguablymag.bsky.social I argue to unlock social care reform, only a "big bang" approach will work

Brilliant piece - as ever - from Rob. I actually lived in Winstanley during the GE campaign. The fictional image that most of the lobby has created of a single, deprived, cliched northern town called 'Makerfield' would be comical were it not such a depressing indictment of our media ecosystem.

How should Britain tame the bond markets? New piece by me for Arguably. - Get serious on spending reform (e.g. triple lock) and pro-growth supply-side reform. - Bank of England should pause its bond sell-offs. - Burnham right to stick with current fiscal rules. www.arguably.uk/p/britains-w...

How can Britain tame the bond markets? @georgeeaton.bsky.social on why it’s time to end outdated policies such as the triple lock. www.arguably.uk/p/britains-w...

Nice reference to @arguablymag.bsky.social from Andrew Marr in today’s NS. Subscribe here for more on the battle of ideas: www.arguably.uk

“Manchester today somehow manages to be simultaneously more left wing and more free market than London, both more open and more sovereign”. Brilliant Arguably piece by @benjudah.bsky.social and @davidlawrenceuk.bsky.social on the real lessons of Manchester's success. www.arguably.uk/p/what-can-w...

Sadiq Khan is *excoriating* on Reeves and the Treasury blocking more London devolution. www.arguably.uk/p/sadiq-khan...

“Social solidarity is not the antithesis of individual liberty, it is the basis upon which liberty depends.” Renie Anjeh writes on what liberals can draw from Christian socialism. www.arguably.uk/p/why-libera...

My first piece for Arguably! 🎉 Freedom is the defining condition of our generation, but it's also a privilege. On class, broken meritocracy, and who really gets to step back from work 👇 open.substack.com/pub/arguably...

Exactly open.substack.com/pub/arguably...

Have lost track of the number of times I've had Westminster Village types (journalists, politicians, policy types) ask "what impact will votes at 16 have?" and all of them seem genuinely surprised when I say "virtually none". Its basic maths! There aren't enough 16-17 year olds to change much!

Didn't think I would agree with this but found it very convincing. This one is free to read. Subscribe to @arguablymag.bsky.social for just £6/month to read all our posts. open.substack.com/pub/arguably...

Why Starmer can't govern – Geoff Mulgan writes for @arguablymag.bsky.social on Labour's lack of preparation and how to reform Britain's "amateur state". www.arguably.uk/p/why-starme...

We’ll be launching @arguablymag.bsky.social tomorrow with our founding essay on where progressives go next. Subscribe now to receive it: Arguably.uk

🚀Thrilled to launch Arguably with @georgeeaton.bsky.social and a top-tier roster of columnists. The battle for clicks means ideas and debate too often struggle for airtime. Arguably is built on the belief there's a real appetite for something different and we want to meet it. www.arguably.uk

Superb piece, and this in particular absolutely nails it.

V good paper here by Dan on the big bang double whammy of nationalising adult social care funding and reforming council tax *at the same time* to unlock the otherwise impenetrable politics

🚨🚨 NEW BLOGPOST 🚨🚨 The right wing should be worried about young men. Unlike Europe and the US, British young men are swinging wildly behind progressive parties. Some thoughts on why, and why most of the right are ignoring it. open.substack.com/pub/joxleywr...

Terrific report on that by @dsquareddigest.bsky.social for Labour Together, this:

Excellent thread and piece by JP

It’s crazy to me there’s not been *one* decent intervention by a senior politician on AI, what it’s for, should be about and our society. Unless I missed it? It’s just people saying ‘productivity’ and ‘jobs’ with literally no thought, thinking or ideas. But then I suppose same on everything.

The results are in lads

How could I forget, here's the UK version

The fact that in both 2019 and 2024, the winning party did so with a set of manifesto promises that could not be kept and dissolved upon contact with actual office is something that as an industry we should be much more bothered by than we are.

Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters. We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk). But that doesn't tell the full story. Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):

Top top work here from @cwp-weir.bsky.social

This is an interesting piece but I just read it going “the missing bit is the section on how the internet has fried everyone’s brains”. www.bbc.com/news/article...

The map below shows how far behind France and Germany we are in mass transit. In France, every place with over 150,000 people has some form of tram or metro. But if mayoral areas can 'become builders' as @tracybrabinmayorwy.bsky.social puts it in the foreword, we can turn this around. 🧵 1/9

A few weeks back, I wrote a post on why Greater Manchester is the fastest growing part of England. Today, I’ve followed this up by creating a Northern productivity leaderboard and then looking at the second fastest: Cumbria. futurenorth.substack.com/p/is-cumbria... 🧵 1/6

Ministers could give mayors control of schools and hospitals in devolution shake-up

So google maps updated some satellite footage, here’s one single Ukrainian village. One out of thousands