In response to a Nashville fan’s question about Recovery Differential impact for a team like theirs, I responded that they needed to win the recovery battle in scrappy games on the road. They did not win the recovery battle against the Fire today. bsky.app/profile/mlss...

I just learned that the reason Preston Judd did the dog pee celebration on his goal tonight was for his dog Poppy who just went through major surgery. Preston (not a high paid player) is raising funds for Poppy and a new foundation to help with major dog surgeries. www.gofundme.com/f/from-poppy...

This is incredible from Sebastian Berhalter. Deep in second-half stoppage time, makes a crunching tackle to end a dangerous Portland counter and win back possession. 25 seconds later he finishes it off at the other end with a banger of a game-winner.

If you haven’t seen the full first half of San Jose and San Diego yet, I’d say to watch it and remember while you are watching it that Beau Leroux is a defensive midfielder. Winning goal against Vancouver, assist down the left side tonight, and put three SD defenders on skates in the box. So fun.

Orlando out here doing it again. It’s possible this will get worse before it gets better.

“Steffen is good with his feet.” This game was bonkers.

2019 LAFC may forever be the perfect team from an analytics perspective that we will see unless the salary cap is removed in MLS. They were the MLS inspiration behind the Where Goals Come From series. That they have the best Recoveries Diff and Goal Differential in the TAM Era is *chef's kiss*.

Last season I did a Friday Stat Dump about duels and recoveries, and even got to write an article for @backheeled.com about them. What we discovered is that loose ball recoveries do a better job than almost any metric in MLS of correlating to fewer Goals Against. Here is MLS 2017-2025 for you. 1/

We’ve talked about GAM inflation a lot. In a unique league with this unique currency, it means that last year’s price is quite literally not equal to this year’s. Historically, we need to adjust our expectations for the valuation of assets. We dive into the Wild West of GAM Inflation:

This wouldn’t have happened if they’d just taken it to the corner.

Friday Stat Dump: xG categorization Since it's international break and @catabush.com has updated the public MLS (and NWSL!) "How Your Team Scores" dashboards for 2026, let's revisit these concepts taken mostly from the Where Goals Come From series and see what they are telling us so far. 1/

This week’s blog post isn’t really a post. It’s a tool that everyone can use to analyze their team’s current GAM situation based on the trades teams have made. All in one place. Introducing…. GAM Is Fun

Reminder: Georgi is the reigning, defending Cutbacks King of MLS.

I had the pleasure of catching up with Garth Lagerwey at SBJ's Business of Soccer event here in ATL. Great news: The veteran executive and former goalkeeper is cancer free. I expect he'll sooner or later be a person of interest for any clubs seeking savvy leadership, especially in MLS.

The NWSL xG dashboard is back for 2026! For those who weren't here last season, the dashboard uses @jamonm.bsky.social & @carloncarpenter.bsky.social's WGCF principles to break down NWSL shots. Built using @americansocceranalysis.com data. public.tableau.com/app/profile/...

My Matias Almeyda bobble head broke the first night I got it. So I guess it was my fault. Blame me.

You don't have to agree with Ben's formula, but it's been pretty good over the years and good luck doing better.

I did not have the MLS Western Conference being this much better than the Eastern Conference so far in my 2026 predictions. There are only like four legitimately good teams in the East right now, and there are seven, maybe eight, in the West. It feels completely flipped now.

MLS Week 5, Bottom 10 Clubs in xG difference: REAL BAD TIER 30) Kansas City: -10.5 29) Orlando: -7.1 MAKES SENSE TIER 28) Alanta: -4.0 T27) Toronto, Austin: -3.9 25) Portland: -3.8 24) Montreal: -3.5 WAIT, WHAT? TIER 23) Minnesota: -2.1 22) Miami: -2.0 21) Philly: -1.8

Friday Stat Dump: Total Goals Ratio (TGR) and Total Shots Ratio (TSR) I've often referred to this ASA article when I talk about predictions, because anyone new to MLS may not realize how much its mechanisms affect it compared to the European Big 5: www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2022/7/... 1/

They've taken this F1 Apple TV thing to the next level in MLS with the 2027 Sprint Season. Maybe we can get to the point of having Sprint games of 15 minutes each on Saturdays and then full 90 minute games on Sundays.

they’re fighting in the stands post El Farolito-Sacramento Republic… insane scenes at the end of the match

Paul Rothrock is the most dependable Sounder week-in and week-out when it comes to being dangerous, creating chances, and scoring goals. It's crazy that they almost let him walk this offseason (or at least that was rumored), but ultimately made the right decision.

Death, taxes, and Nouhou dribbling 1v3.

I'm very excited to share that I've joined @kickbacksoccer.bsky.social as their Data and Insights Lead! Really pumped to be working with @johnkickback.bsky.social, @empiregass.bsky.social, and the rest of the incredible team they’ve built.

This reply sent me on an investigation this weekend. Turns out there are some red card flags (and some yellow card flags) that appear on random events, which incorrectly implicated well-behaved Cristian Roldan and others with reds. Fixed + 2nd yellows fixed. Total dismissals from 2017 to now:

MLS Top 9 in xG+A/90: 1) Bouanga, 1.11 (LAFC, 31, DP) 2) White, 1.07 (VAN, 30, TAM) 3) Cuypers, 1.02 (CHI, 29, DP) 4) Surridge, 0.95 (NSH, 27, DP) 5) Hall, 0.95 (RBNY, 17, HG) 6) Dreyer, 0.94 (SD, 27, DP) 7) Messi, 0.92 (MIA, 38, DP) 8) Musa, 0.90 (FCD, 27, DP) 9) Pec, 0.90 (LAG, 25, DP)

Are the Union the worst team in MLS? Some are saying…

Bonus #2: Top MLS players with the most red cards since 2017.

Bonus #1: The 25 MLS players with the most yellow cards since 2017.

Friday Stat Dump: Yellow and Red Cards After a few second yellows and straight reds last week, it felt like MLS 2026 has had a rash of games shorthanded at the end. 12 of 44 regular season games so far have ended that way, putting us at a higher pace, so far, than other TAM Era seasons. 1/

As the #NWSL season starts, something to keep an eye on is how @washingtonspirit.com replaces the Bethune-sized gap in attack. (F1) Spirit's dominant attack was rooted in line-breaking passes. (F2) Croix was a leader in passes and shots.. (F3) ..and xG from those passes and shots. Who steps up?

All of our NWSL previews can be found here: www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/categor... If you want to support the site so we can keep building tools like the vizhub and keep the server farms whirring you can do so at our patreon: www.patreon.com/americansocc...

I fell asleep on the couch since 1-0 Toluca and what have I missed? LMAO

Not great, San Diego FC.

Preview time: @evandavissports.bsky.social talks a turned over Orlando Pride and their hunt to get back to the top While Chad Geepiti tells us you can rely on Chat GPT when your goalkeeper is Claudia Dickey in Seattle www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/3/...

Wow, what a banger from Alejandro Bran as LD Alajuelense leads at LAFC. As against the run-of-play as you can get.

More previews @nrgilman.bsky.social consults the Disco Ball in Louisville and @kierdoyle.bsky.social talks about a Wave who stumbled upon one of the best CB pairings in the league www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/3/...

Previews continue on: @mshea14.bsky.social in her ASA debut talks about hope in Houston, and @paulharvey.theoutfield.nyc asks can the Courage close the gap to the leagues best www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/3/...

It took me a sec, but the xG dashboard is back for 2026! For those who weren't here last season, the dashboard uses @jamonm.bsky.social & @carloncarpenter.bsky.social's WGCF principles to break down MLS shots. Built using @americansocceranalysis.com data. public.tableau.com/app/profile/...

So that insane home advantage didn't survive week 3 of the 2026 MLS season (46th percentile now).

Armchair Analyst: Nashville's continuing evolution, NYCFC's catalyst & more from Matchday 3 Including a Miami team just throwing stuff at the wall & a Cincy side that looks lost both on and off the ball. tacticsfreezone.ghost.io/nashvilles-c...

Cincinnati played exactly like a team that doesn’t know how to score goals that aren’t served to them on a platter when that one guy isn’t 100%

Away teams won eight games in week 3 and both games today.

I enjoyed watching Djordje doing stuff that half a lot.

Kids these days...

Away teams won six games yesterday. Home teams won five helped by three with red cards. That’s 12 games with a red card (double yellows included) this season.

Some Sunday morning NWSL previews: Theresa Pham asks what do in Utah in her ASA debut, and @mattbarger.bsky.social ponders whether Mark Parsons is a little Icarus-ish www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/3/7/2026-nwsl-previews-utah-royals-angel-city

Away teams have won 3 so far tonight, and two more are winning right now. I guess 80% home win pct this season is off the table.