Over in USL, Spokane Velocity lead Portland Hearts of Pine in the USL1 semi-final on — what else? — a long-throw set piece. 1-0 halftime in Spokane.

Amahl Pellegrino finding success with San Diego, particularly in the playoffs, warms my heart.

That ball from Jordi Alba to Silvetti was a good example of a linebreaking pass from the outside. That’s what he does.

Everyone is aware we’ve got Cincinnati and Columbus Hell is Real Derby in the playoffs happening right now, correct? My feed is all MNUFC/Seattle, Nashville/Miami, and the Next Pro final…

Would guess that was why MLS’s officials determined not to have Obed Vargas retake his attempt.

The Sounders use of third-man runs and off-ball movement led directly to the first goal and to the corner that led to the second. It’s completely baffled the Minnesota United back line and given the Sounders an early 2-0 lead.

Questions come up when I use linebreaking passes. I'm not ready to share the methodology publicly yet, but I have validated the method visually with dozens of passes. What I can share: the methodology takes ASA's definition of progressive passes (25% closer to the goal) and adds more logic. 1/

Now that everybody is caught up on long throws it's time to start talking about Dyche Zone free kicks

Reminder, Minoungou played 726 minutes. Everyone with at least four completed cutbacks had at least twice as many minutes. Rothrock and Kent both making the top 12 sorta illustrates what the Sounders try to do.

Friday Stat Dump on Saturday: MLS leaders of various pass types. (New: I've enhanced my chart generation with players!) I put no stock in pass completion % which includes passes with no pressure. So let's look at chance-creating pass types. First, the top 25(+ ties) with throughballs! 1/ (lol)

Tomorrow: Something new comes to Friday Stat Dump 👀 (on Saturday, again, yes)

0.01 xG. lol.

Can’t recall an MLS team just handing a playoffs game they had won to an opponent as much as San Diego did tonight to the Timbers.

Friday Stat Dump: Big Chances I've been told big chances are subjective. Meaning, the analyst coding the game identifies a "big scoring chance" from their perspective. Two analysts could disagree. Here are the big chances by MLS team in the 2025 season: 1/

I'm finishing up some code changes for this week's Friday Stat Dump, so rather than hope you read this on Halloween, I'll put it out tomorrow morning. See you then.

This is really great!

This is so cool. Shout out to ASA alums and legends @ajbarnold.bsky.social and @arielledror.bsky.social. www.youtube.com/watch?v=FMcv...

Love this quote. Learn more about @americansocceranalysis.com' foray into club consulting along with how MNUFC is using us to help with recruiting in this article from Joe and @backheeled.com. I love club conversations and want to help. Reach out and tell us what is important to you this offseason.

Few things about Minnesota United's new era have been normal — from outlier tactics to striking a data deal with @americansocceranalysis.com. @joeclowery.bsky.social spoke with key figures at the club to go inside the Loons' rebirth as one of MLS's most competitive outfits. Read ⤵️

I enjoyed this a lot, and I liked using our xG Tiers to evaluate a goalkeeper. I *think* that's the first time I've seen it done publicly. It was partially frustration with the glut of shots on the "Regular" pattern of play that motivated me to classify shots differently for Where Goals Come From.

It's time for my favorite piece of content we do every year: our fan survey. This year, we're collaborating with over 20 independent outlets to try and get it out to as many people as we can! If you have even a passing interest in Major League Soccer, could you take a minute and fill this out?

Very proud to share that I’ll soon be starting a new chapter as Lead Performance Analyst with Manchester United Women. Extremely honored to be a part of an iconic club and excited to contribute to such a fantastic set of players and staff. Can’t wait to get going! 🔴⚫️⚽️👨🏼‍💻

Weekly Stat Dump: Predicted Points In the past few weeks, we have looked at xPoints, Expected Goal Differential (xGD), and g+ Offense Diff as potential predictors of points in MLS. Keep in mind, we've already pointed out how weak predictions using R-squared are in a parity league like MLS. 1/

Welcome back, Jeff. We've missed you.

Going live now!

So, @kierdoyle.bsky.social @beninquiring.bsky.social and I are gonna do a live pod tonight. Gonna talk MLS playoffs, watch a bit of wild card games and probably some off-season awards. Watch for a YouTube link at some point from @americansocceranalysis.com

We get a ballot for MLS at ASA. Here’s the ballot. www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2025/10...

Short 🧵: One of the reasons I liked what @carloncarpenter.bsky.social and I wrote about with Where Goals Come From is its emphasis on the importance of chances from progressive passes. For me, these types of goals are the best in the sport and, outside the unexpected banger, the most exciting. 1/

I've always wondered (and feared) what might happen if everyone started taking set pieces seriously. The first eight weeks of the Premier League season might be giving us a glimpse into the future, where soccer no longer features much, well, soccer: www.espn.com/soccer/story...

**NOT MARINER RELATED CONTENT** For those interested MLS playoffs are about to start I've been told by @kierdoyle.bsky.social we're gonna try an @americansocceranalysis.com live stream on youtube this. More deets to come.

Some personal news - last night’s match was my last with the Houston Dynamo. Forever thankful to the players & staff I worked alongside for the past 3 years: I learned so much from each & every one + experienced some moments I will cherish forever. Excited for what's next! 🔜

Been internalizing the Messi apathy from the MLS fan base for a while now. Even I’d rather watch a lot of other teams than Miami right now unless Miami is playing someone on the watch list.

An incredible Decision Day race I didn't notice until reminded by Vikas in the @soccerwisehq.bsky.social discord: D.C. United (29 total team goals in 33 matches) vs. Lionel Messi (26 individual goals in 27). Coming down to the wire, folks. Messi has outside chance of chasing down D.C. United

Friday Stat Dump: g+ Offense Differential If you follow ASA, you know about Goals Added (g+). www.americansocceranalysis.com/what-are-goa... Go to their Goals Added (g+) sidebar on the Interactive Tables and pick Teams to see Goals Added Diff. app.americansocceranalysis.com#!/mls/goals-... 1/

The final MLS 2025 regular season Friday Stat Dump will come out tomorrow, so I can take advantage of the remaining daylight for some fresh air and exercise today. Data soon.

Welcome new people, here are some soccer analytics and tactics accounts to follow if you're into that

The MLS record for non-penalty goals in a single season is 27 (Vela, 2019). Messi is at 26, going into Decision Day.

Note: GameFlows are paused until I get back from vacation next weekend. Until then, @mlsstat.bsky.social, @nwslstat.bsky.social, and @uslstat.bsky.social should have you covered. -Eliot

FSD follow-up: some questions on Save % came up, so I dug around more. First, YOY Save % is more stable than even G / PSxG. (see viz) Second, Save % predicts future Save % better than G-PSxG (SAE) and G/PSxG predict themselves, but not quite better than G-PSxG at predicting itself. 1/

Was there. Can confirm.

Friday Stat Dump: Saves and Save % The analytics folk, me included, have for the past decade or so extolled the virtues of evaluating goalkeepers on something like goals against - post-shot xG (G-PSxG). I don't think that's wrong, per se, but, if that is the only metric, we've got some issues. 1/

I have been working on a new USA Soccer stat hub for a couple of months now in Tableau, as I grew increasingly dissatisfied with what I put together at the start of 2025. It's *finally* ready for public consumption. The images here don't show the half of it: public.tableau.com/views/MLSAdv...

Not gonna blame club PRs for trumpeting when their players do something with an aggregate stat that actually means the team is bad at something, but we've still collectively failed to define what "good" looks like for goalkeepers. Look for something on Friday Stat Dump this week.

No team better at making slow, lethargic, sideways passes in the final third in MLS 2025.

I would be remiss not to point out that the best version of the Points - xPoints method is done by Eliot McKinley at least once or twice every season with his "good, bad, and unlucky" version. Take a look and see what's changed since 14 games in: bsky.app/profile/elio...

If you are wondering why the R-squared values (coefficient of determination) are so low here, I refer you once again to this important work from our analysts at @americansocceranalysis.com: www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2022/7/...

Friday Stat Dump: xPoints. xPlaining...er...explaining xPoints is not easy in this format, but I'll give it a shot: At its simplest, xPoints is the average points a team gets from 1,000 game simulations based on shots and the xG of those shots vs. their opponent's. MLS 2025 xPoints table: 1/

Vizhub 2, Electric Boogaloo, @harrisoncrow.bsky.social goes east to breakdown maybe the most interesting MLS conference in a decade www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2025/9/...