Heartbroken: I’m just a random newsletter

Will stay a U22 through this season. He turns 26 in 2027-28, meaning he’ll have to be off the program by then. I’m going to wait on the details of the transaction because if he’s on his current deal I’m pretty sure he’s going to have to be a DP in 27/28.

The Galaxy are paying $2.375M for a player with no guarantee of a long term deal. Why? The reasoning is down below ⬇️

Journalists have been explaining for *months* how Miami could afford this exact rebuild. Please read @armankafai.bsky.social’s newsletter.

Good catch - I had him not retuning when his contract expired and didn't update after he returned.

There's a new tool from @ussoccer.com and @akeaswaran.me is here to tell you about it. Introducing Glass Onion, an Identifier Synchronization Tool www.americansocceranalysis.com/home/2026/1/...

Martins is eligible to be moved to a TAM spot due to his contract being on an option year. NYCFC exercised his option, meaning average annual budget charge (AABC) resets from his initial deal

Listen man, I do a little bit of sports gambling when it comes to other sports but we have a legit epidemic amongst our youth. I went to two sporting events over the last two days and all I could hear behind me was conversations about how a player needed to hit a certain amount of whatever stat

Seriously, though: On top of Arman's MLS knowledge, dude has 2 econ degrees. I took like 2 macro classes. Add that to his deep knowledge MLS and the cap.... if you're a true sicko, his (free!) substack is a must footyanalyticmusings.substack.com

It's great to see MLS releasing GAM numbers – but the lack of context has left some smart MLS sickos confused about what they mean. I'm trying to put #cf97 's total into context and talk about the GAM inflation we're seeing (which @armankafai.bsky.social has great content on)

Counting the sprint season, yes: '26, '27, '27-'28*, '28-'29, '29-30 with an option year in '30-'31 For perspective, the cute kid who says "swear word" whenever we bleep out a swear word on Emergency Podcast will be a TEENAGER by the option year * pending CBA approval

I’m sorry does this say 5+1?

In the wake of FBref's defacto death, I saw a lot of posts suggesting alternate data sources. Unfortunately, many of them focus exclusively on men's soccer. To measure what options remain for woso, I conducted a survey of the most popular FBref alternatives. What I found is disappointing: 🧵

Unless Montreal gets some good assets for taking him on, I don’t get it. You have Neal. You have Vera. You have Morales. I can even stretch and say Brandon Craig, who started for them last year. And you just solved a huge issue for Miami

I take no joy is being this guy, but the report circulating that claims CL Merlo is reporting an imminent Obed Vargas transfer is taking what he said somewhat out of context. What he said is what @elrolonw.bsky.social and I have been saying for weeks: that we are in crunch time for a potential move.

Unlimited cashfers!

MLS has continued to release their GAM numbers, as they consistently did in 2025. Who stood out and who didn’t? We dive deep into it on FAM:

There’s a couple of reasons by this deal makes sense for the Galaxy. Klauss has one year left on his deal. He has no options and remember, the cashfer fee will hit the budget charge. However, once the current contract ends, the fee is removed from the BC equation.

Football Analytics Musings by @armankafai.bsky.social breaks down just how strong Houston’s cap position is right now: “The Dynamo can’t use the excuse of lack of GAM anymore… It’s now time to capitalize.”

Richie Ledezma's one-time switch from the #USMNT to #ElTriEng has been approved. The Mexican federation announced yesterday that the Phoenix native and Chivas teammate Brian Gutierrez would be eligible for January friendlies v. Panama & Bolivia. FIFA now has confirmed it.

MLS has continued to release their GAM numbers, as they consistently did in 2025. Who stood out and who didn’t? We dive deep into it on FAM:

I am really worried about the future of soccer data. This is bad

This really sucks, grateful for what FBref has done for soccer

I think Beterame will be great for them but I would’ve probably targeted someone in the midfield. They already had the offensive fire power as we saw in the playoffs but the midfield control is important. But tbh, even going 2+4 would’ve been good for them to help reinforce some of the depth

Just leaving this here once again

This app will explode if the Bertarame to Miami rumor is true

MLS implemented two rules in the last couple of seasons that have allowed for more GAM to be produced, increasing the roster budgets for teams. Why did they have this impact and what impact did it have? We dig into it for FAM:

FC Dallas and Atlético Dallas can coexist fine. FC Dallas will have its population in the suburbs while Atlético has a presence in proper Dallas. I’m not exaggerating when I say this, but FC Dallas has virtually no presence in Dallas proper. None. Atlético will have plenty of room to operate

Locks Austin in a 3+3 roster construction model with Torres, Uzuni, and Vazquez as your 3 DPs

Discussed this at length on the podcast (and here) in real time. Troy/Ally were in over their heads but the owners completely knifed them with their random decisions. Again, not cheap. They spend money! Just dumb. They waste millions in addition to leaving millions on the table.

@armankafai.bsky.social is probably the best writer right now on MLS cap machinations and the leagues economy. He’s also just a good dude. He’s got another great piece, and I can attest he predicted a lot of this when most pundits were underwhelmed with the changes. open.substack.com/pub/footyana...

Never forget this: Mackay told @stevengoff.bsky.social they were going 2+4 but the club went 3+3. Seems like there was a clear disconnect between the sporting staff and ownership because why else would he say this and then go opposite? That move potentially set them back over $1M in GAM carryover.

MLS implemented two rules in the last couple of seasons that have allowed for more GAM to be produced, increasing the roster budgets for teams. Why did they have this impact and what impact did it have? We dig into it for FAM:

Free newsletter: I spent the afternoon figuring out – very, very roughly – how much GAM each MLS team has to play with. My brain is mush. tacticsfreezone.substack.com/p/figuring-o...

Yup. The massive rollover they had last year really helps their cause

Please be the voice for those in Iran. Protestors are getting slaughtered with an internet blackout. The regime happily on the record will mention their estimate (2K), when it is more than likely that it’s way worse than that. I’m hoping for the day the IR is gone and this repressive regime is too

The Designated Player rule has been crucial for MLS's growth, helping David Beckham and Lionel Messi sign in the league. But now? The DP rule is a drag on MLS’s improvement rather than a driver, writes @boomstyx.bsky.social. Here's what's wrong with the DP rule — and how to fix it ⤵️

Seeing rumors that Miami is close to signing Baltasar Rodriguez to a deal. If they're continuing to hunt for a max TAM level player, then they would have to go 2+4 to start the season. I'd be stunned if they can add a third DP after filling both of those spots. They need the extra GAM

A blog about this is in the works Coming 🔜

Another great explainer on the Miami situation from Arman. Here's another thing I want to point out: let's say Miami get the cashfer for Blackmon across the line, spending $3m of Mas's money. Let's then say he's benched for being insufficiently Argentine. Let's say he's then traded for $1.5m GAM.

How the hell can Inter Miami afford to add Tadeo Allende, Micael, David Ayala, and potentially another max TAM player? We dive into the updated cap structure for Miami and answer some questions that have been floating around:

They could spend $100m on Ayala if they want and he'd only hit the cap at $200k b/c he's a U-22. Blackmon's cashfer is a reported $2.5m. Amortize that over a 4-year guaranteed deal w/ $1.2m salary and he's at the max TAM amount. bsky.app/profile/tk90...

Blog out tomorrow detailing how all of these moves will work

Nah. Read this if you want to understand the cap math. Shoutout @armankafai.bsky.social. footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/p/2026-off-s... bsky.app/profile/inse...

There you go. Ayala will stay a U22 on the deal! And again, I’m pretty sure he can stay a U22 until his graduation year

Sliz was one of the players tha Atlanta brought in a longer term deal (5 yrs) to make sure his cap hit would be TAM. He was okay, but if you amortized his fee with his current salary, his budget charge was around $1.8-$2M. Salary would’ve gone down but you’d have his TF continue to hit.

I dove into how keeping Allende would be difficult but how it was possible on FAM last month. Quite simply, even with Allende’s signing, Miami still has room to operate

Here’s a taste. The Wickenheiser and Ftorek are game-worn.

Sports jerseys. I’ve been enamored by jersey culture for a while now. First started in soccer, then basketball, and now it’s back to vintage soccer and hockey. Hockey sweaters have so much history behind them that I’m absolutely hooked on em

With the announcement of Riqui Puig’s surgery and him being out until 2027, the Galaxy should open up a DP spot. What can they do with it? We reviewed the options earlier in 2025, when this exact same situation was looming.