Inflation in one chart:

🚨New paper. 🧵Our baseline estimate implies that preserving trust in the integrity and quality of official statistics generates economic benefits of about $25 for every $1 spent on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics's budget. cc: @nickbloom.bsky.social, @ericagroshen.bsky.social, #econsky

Blue-collar employment. No bueno. (via JPM)

Unorthodox leadership change in the works at Fed: Warsh on deck while Powell remains apnews.com/article/fede...

FACT CHECK for Fed history buffs: The last time a Fed chair remained on the Fed's board after his term as chair ended and a new chair took over was in 1978, when Burns stayed on as governor for 3 weeks after G. William Miller's term began. Sources: www.nber.org/system/files... FRASER: rb.gy/eb1ext

Inflation according to the Fed's preferred measure jumped in March, as expected, to nearly a three-year high on spiking gas prices. Headline rose to 3.5%, and core prices are now 3.2% above a year ago. Check out apnews.com for more.

A pretty candid Powell at his last presser here. On Fed indepdence: "I think it's at risk. These legal assaults -- the institution is being battered over these things. We're having to resort to the courts" to protect independent monetary policy.

Odds of Powell staying? No time for a poll, but will take answers below:

Unusual Fed decision presages divided committee for Warsh: _ 4 dissents, but three against signaling more cuts _ 4th dissent is Miran, in favor of immediate cuts.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Wednesday will likely be a momentous day for the future of the Federal Reserve as Chair Jerome Powell could signal he will stay with the Fed even as a Senate panel is expected to confirm his replacement. apnews.com/article/powe...

The investigation was the most brazen attempt yet by the Trump administration to pressure the Fed to cut its short-term interest rate ... Trump has taken other unprecedented steps to try to pressure the Fed, including an attempt last August to fire Lisa Cook. apnews.com/article/fede...

Trump Fed nominee Warsh said Trump never pressed him to cut rates as a condition of being Fed chair. Sen. Ruben Gallego notes that the WSJ reported otherwise in December. Warsh says: "I think those reporters need better sources."

Warsh now being asked if cutting the Fed's rate from 3.5% (roughly where it is now) to 1% would fuel inflation. He demurs, says he doesn't want to preview any decisions he might make.

BREAKING: Trump Fed nominee Kevin Warsh getting grilled about his independence, Sen. Warren asks if Trump won the 2020 election. Warsh responds: "This body certified that election." Doesn't answer fully.

Nice visualization here: apnews.com/article/the-...

Deutsche Bank sees only modest hit to economy from higher oil prices. Still: "Against this backdrop, we have removed our lone Fed rate cut from this year and now see the Fed on an indefinite hold near neutral."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, top Dem on Senate Banking, calls for greater transparency into Fed chair nominee Warsh's financial assets. Likely more of this at hearing: "No one has gone forward in the Trump administration without disclosing fully their financial holdings.” apnews.com/article/fede...

“.. In the past there was a group called ‘Dire Straits.’ It’s a dire strait now, and it is going to have major implications for the global economy.” @apnews.com apnews.com/article/iran...

Today's economic data is mixed: Unemployment claims slipped, showing layoffs remain low and the Iran war doesn't appear to be spurring layoffs. But manufacturing output slipped 0.1% last month and the first quarter's big production gains follows sharp drop in 4Q 2025. apnews.com/article/unem...

WH advisor Kevin Hassett said at an Axios forum DoJ is investigating the Federal Reserve because "the president wanted to investigate the cost overrun." This contradicts Sen. Tillis' view that the WH was blindsided by it. Tillis unloaded on the investigation again today:

As inflation is again the deciding factor of election... is Canada getting ahead of everyone in electing central banker to head the government 🤔

I am at the @semafor.com World Economy forum, and interviewed CAVA CEO Brett Schulman. We talked consumer sentiment, gas prices, and AI. Will be posted to AP's YouTube channel. And we'll be live at 2 pm with @semaforben.bsky.social! youtube.com/user/Associa...

A big increase in monthly inflation, as expected:

US Treasury working to put Trump's signature on new paper currency in first for sitting president apnews.com/article/trum...

Higher interest rates, stemming from Iran war, are weighing on housing. Mortgage Bankers Assoc. says this AM mortgage applications fell 10.5% last week compared to previous week. Follows rise in mortgage rates to 6.43% from below 6.1% before war. Stickier inflation means Fed will keep rates ⬆️

Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr skeptical of rate cuts: "We may need to keep rates steady for some time as we assess economic conditions. ... I would like to see evidence that ... inflation is sustainably retreating before considering reducing the policy rate further."

Americans have gotten much more pessimistic about the job market in the past couple of years. Surprising given the low unemployment rate, but consistent with a low-hire, low-fire economy: apnews.com/article/jobs...

Fed's Chris Waller on CNBC this morning balances his ongoing concerns about the job market with renewed fears of worsening inflation, embodying the Fed's dilemma:

This is pretty interesting on the question swirling around the Federal Reserve these days, from government's filing in the case, unsealed Friday:

Today's jobs openings report shows a sharp drop in openings in professional and business services, a collection of mostly white collar jobs. Hiring has already been weak in those areas for years. AI related? Openings fell to 977,000 in January, down from 1.25 million a year ago.

"Inflation stayed stubbornly elevated last month as gas prices rose in a snapshot of what consumer prices looked like before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran sent energy costs soaring." apnews.com/article/infl... AP News Story by @chrisrugaber.bsky.social and Anne D'Innocenzio

Bigger tax refunds stemming from Trump's tax cuts were supposed to boost consumer spending in the first and second quarters, but much may now be eaten by higher gas prices. Also, if people have more money to spend, could facilitate companies' ability to pass on higher gas costs to consumers.

Can we agree on a metric at least: _ UBS: A $10 per barrel increase in oil prices lifts headline CPI 0.4% _ JPMorgan: A 10% increase in oil prices relative to recent averages adds about 15bp to headline CPI _ BofA: A 10% increase in crude oil prices would raise PCE inflation by nearly 10bp.

Happy 100th Birthday to Alan Greenspan!

The unemployment rate for foreign-born workers -- legal and unauthorized immigrants -- is unchanged from a year ago at 4.7%, while it rose for native-born Americans to 4.7% from 4.4%. Rates are the most reliable measures of these groups, economists say. AP coverage: apnews.com/article/jobs...

Biden flies commercial from Reagan National Airport and winds up stuck in delays like everyone else apnews.com/article/bide...

U.S. sympathies shift in Israeli- Palestinian conflict:

Follow AP's live coverage of the State of the Union, with updates, context, and fact checks, here: apnews.com/live/trump-s...

Federal Reserve's Waller sees some signs of K-shaped economy:

Trump advisor and Fed chair also-ran Hassett wants researchers behind NY Fed paper that reached a conclusion on tariffs that runs against the political views of the administration "disciplined" for their work. Here's the paper: www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-...

NY Fed warns inflation heating up rather than cooling down: "Once the full data set is used, the aggregate trend for December stands at 2.83 percent, an increase from 2.55 percent in September."

Good read by @apnews.com: No, George Washington didn't have wooden teeth. Yes, he led the Siege of Boston apnews.com/article/geor...

Less-noticed comment by Trump recently: He doesn't want to bring home prices down by encouraging more building, because it would hurt current homeowners. From @AP's @joshboak: apnews.com/article/trum...

Watching some Olympic mixed doubles curling before the big game. It’s very different from, say, men’s doubles curling.

Anne Frank died of dysentery. Do we want to allow this on American soil? And how, for the love of God, do we stop it??

Sen. Thom Tillis, in the Banking hearing with Treasury Sec. Bessent, actually referenced this classic Dave Chappelle script and warned it's how future hearings could go if officials can be investigated for their statements, as is happening with Fed Chair Powell: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdeo...

Interesting to see former Federal Reserve governor nominee Judy Shelton at Bessent’s Senate hearing today. Nominated by Trump in 2020 but not confirmed by Senate.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Higher-income Americans and those with college degrees have ramped up their spending more quickly in the past three years than other consumers, evidence of worsening inequality that may explain some of the growing pessimism about the economy. apnews.com/article/weal...

PepsiCo was the poster child during the pandemic-era inflation spike of "price over volume" or what many called "excuseflation," as the company cranked up prices on drinks and snacks. Now they appear to be going in reverse cause people won't pay (from @deeanndurbin_ap): apnews.com/article/peps...

Latest from Trump on his Warsh pick: Trump said he didn't ask Warsh to commit to cutting rates, calling such a question “inappropriate" and adding, “I want to keep it nice and pure.” But Trump added, “But he certainly wants to cut rates.” apnews.com/article/wars...