This is pretty interesting on the question swirling around the Federal Reserve these days, from government's filing in the case, unsealed Friday:

Today's jobs openings report shows a sharp drop in openings in professional and business services, a collection of mostly white collar jobs. Hiring has already been weak in those areas for years. AI related? Openings fell to 977,000 in January, down from 1.25 million a year ago.

"Inflation stayed stubbornly elevated last month as gas prices rose in a snapshot of what consumer prices looked like before the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran sent energy costs soaring." apnews.com/article/infl... AP News Story by @chrisrugaber.bsky.social and Anne D'Innocenzio

Bigger tax refunds stemming from Trump's tax cuts were supposed to boost consumer spending in the first and second quarters, but much may now be eaten by higher gas prices. Also, if people have more money to spend, could facilitate companies' ability to pass on higher gas costs to consumers.

Can we agree on a metric at least: _ UBS: A $10 per barrel increase in oil prices lifts headline CPI 0.4% _ JPMorgan: A 10% increase in oil prices relative to recent averages adds about 15bp to headline CPI _ BofA: A 10% increase in crude oil prices would raise PCE inflation by nearly 10bp.

Happy 100th Birthday to Alan Greenspan!

The unemployment rate for foreign-born workers -- legal and unauthorized immigrants -- is unchanged from a year ago at 4.7%, while it rose for native-born Americans to 4.7% from 4.4%. Rates are the most reliable measures of these groups, economists say. AP coverage: apnews.com/article/jobs...

Biden flies commercial from Reagan National Airport and winds up stuck in delays like everyone else apnews.com/article/bide...

U.S. sympathies shift in Israeli- Palestinian conflict:

Follow AP's live coverage of the State of the Union, with updates, context, and fact checks, here: apnews.com/live/trump-s...

Federal Reserve's Waller sees some signs of K-shaped economy:

Trump advisor and Fed chair also-ran Hassett wants researchers behind NY Fed paper that reached a conclusion on tariffs that runs against the political views of the administration "disciplined" for their work. Here's the paper: www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-...

NY Fed warns inflation heating up rather than cooling down: "Once the full data set is used, the aggregate trend for December stands at 2.83 percent, an increase from 2.55 percent in September."

Good read by @apnews.com: No, George Washington didn't have wooden teeth. Yes, he led the Siege of Boston apnews.com/article/geor...

Less-noticed comment by Trump recently: He doesn't want to bring home prices down by encouraging more building, because it would hurt current homeowners. From @AP's @joshboak: apnews.com/article/trum...

Watching some Olympic mixed doubles curling before the big game. It’s very different from, say, men’s doubles curling.

Anne Frank died of dysentery. Do we want to allow this on American soil? And how, for the love of God, do we stop it??

Sen. Thom Tillis, in the Banking hearing with Treasury Sec. Bessent, actually referenced this classic Dave Chappelle script and warned it's how future hearings could go if officials can be investigated for their statements, as is happening with Fed Chair Powell: www.youtube.com/watch?v=mdeo...

Interesting to see former Federal Reserve governor nominee Judy Shelton at Bessent’s Senate hearing today. Nominated by Trump in 2020 but not confirmed by Senate.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Higher-income Americans and those with college degrees have ramped up their spending more quickly in the past three years than other consumers, evidence of worsening inequality that may explain some of the growing pessimism about the economy. apnews.com/article/weal...

PepsiCo was the poster child during the pandemic-era inflation spike of "price over volume" or what many called "excuseflation," as the company cranked up prices on drinks and snacks. Now they appear to be going in reverse cause people won't pay (from @deeanndurbin_ap): apnews.com/article/peps...

Latest from Trump on his Warsh pick: Trump said he didn't ask Warsh to commit to cutting rates, calling such a question “inappropriate" and adding, “I want to keep it nice and pure.” But Trump added, “But he certainly wants to cut rates.” apnews.com/article/wars...

Lots on Warsh: apnews.com/article/trum...

Interesting chart from Axios:

The Fed kept its key interest rate unchanged, while Chair Powell signaled the central bank is not in a hurry to cut rates. In response to my question, Powell said the Supreme Court hearing was "the most important case in the 113-year history of the Federal Reserve." apnews.com/article/fede...

Hmm, Miran only dissenting for a quarter-point cut. Will he be on the bad list now?

I will set up a Kalshi market of whether you will get a Mulligan now~~ :)

Don't envy your job today haha

Hmm, how to ask Fed Chair Jerome Powell about all the politics around the Fed without getting a "no comment"? Suggestions welcome! (And yes one option is just to skip it).

Videos of the deadly Minneapolis shooting of Alex Pretti contradict government statements apnews.com/article/minn...

The Supreme Court has been making an exception for the Federal Reserve when it comes to a president's power to fire top officials, as we saw in the Cook case. Yet many legal experts say the court is on shaky ground when it argues that the Fed is different. Our story: apnews.com/article/fede...

We are live blogging the oral arguments at the Supreme Court in the Lisa Cook case. Follow along!: apnews.com/live/supreme...

Air Force One returns to Washington area due to minor electrical issue, White House says apnews.com/article/trum...

An excellent scope from @chrisrugaber.bsky.social

AP Source: Fed Chair Jerome Powell to attend Supreme Court hearing Wednesday in case about Trump's attempted firing of Lisa Cook. apnews.com/article/fede...

Wow: Norwegian leader says he received Trump message that reportedly ties Greenland to Nobel Peace Prize apnews.com/article/gree...

Did Sen. Thom Tillis defend Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week because Powell was nice to his dog? Probably not, but who knows. Fun anecdote from reporting on Powell's cultivation of support on Capitol Hill: apnews.com/article/jero...

Trump can't wait to get rid of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. But has his administration's legal investigation of the Fed made it more likely that Powell will stick around? On Tuesday, Trump said, "that jerk will be gone soon.” Or maybe not. apnews.com/article/fede...

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social 's explainer on the importance of Fed independence

Last night Trump posted jobs data that included figures for December & other data not scheduled for release until today at 8:30 am. I believe this would be illegal for anyone else. And as @eamonjavers.bsky.social notes, creates incentives for Wall St to follow his website Truth Social.

"Others have held back due to widespread uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies, elevated inflation, and the spread of artificial intelligence, which could alter or even replace some jobs." apnews.com/article/jobs... @apnews.com @chrisrugaber.bsky.social

Treasury Secretary Bessent, in remarks in Minneapolis (!), cites a much higher federal funds rate target than the 1% often cited by his boss: “I think most models would show that 250 to 325, but again I don't target a specific interest rate for the Fed.”

hahahahahahahaha, the "smallest US Trade deficit since 2009" illustrated

Well, we can see one driver of the stock market today:

"If the Supreme Court finds for Trump, they've killed Federal Reserve independence." -- former Fed governor Alan Blinder on the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. @EconClubNY. Oral argument is Jan. 21!

ICYMI: Half of large industries cut jobs last year, with mining and logging losing 2.7% of its jobs. Our look at the odd economy of 2025: apnews.com/article/infl...

Congestion pricing is an unqualified success in NYC. It would be great to see it expanded to every city with decent public transit options. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

As we await President Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair this year, interesting chart from Goldman Sachs, plotting inflation and central bank independence:

The childcare voucher program POTUS trying to freeze serves 1.4 million children with low-income, working parents GOP has supported bcz parents must work (or do related activity) & care market based, not publicly produced. Grew from 1990s welfare reform Freeze'd destroy jobs & destabilize families

The Bank of England cuts key interest rate to 3.75%, the first reduction in 4 months.