Did Sen. Thom Tillis defend Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier this week because Powell was nice to his dog? Probably not, but who knows. Fun anecdote from reporting on Powell's cultivation of support on Capitol Hill: apnews.com/article/jero...

Trump can't wait to get rid of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. But has his administration's legal investigation of the Fed made it more likely that Powell will stick around? On Tuesday, Trump said, "that jerk will be gone soon.” Or maybe not. apnews.com/article/fede...

@chrisrugaber.bsky.social 's explainer on the importance of Fed independence

Last night Trump posted jobs data that included figures for December & other data not scheduled for release until today at 8:30 am. I believe this would be illegal for anyone else. And as @eamonjavers.bsky.social notes, creates incentives for Wall St to follow his website Truth Social.

"Others have held back due to widespread uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies, elevated inflation, and the spread of artificial intelligence, which could alter or even replace some jobs." apnews.com/article/jobs... @apnews.com @chrisrugaber.bsky.social

Treasury Secretary Bessent, in remarks in Minneapolis (!), cites a much higher federal funds rate target than the 1% often cited by his boss: “I think most models would show that 250 to 325, but again I don't target a specific interest rate for the Fed.”

hahahahahahahaha, the "smallest US Trade deficit since 2009" illustrated

Well, we can see one driver of the stock market today:

"If the Supreme Court finds for Trump, they've killed Federal Reserve independence." -- former Fed governor Alan Blinder on the case of Fed Governor Lisa Cook. @EconClubNY. Oral argument is Jan. 21!

ICYMI: Half of large industries cut jobs last year, with mining and logging losing 2.7% of its jobs. Our look at the odd economy of 2025: apnews.com/article/infl...

Congestion pricing is an unqualified success in NYC. It would be great to see it expanded to every city with decent public transit options. www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

As we await President Trump's nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair this year, interesting chart from Goldman Sachs, plotting inflation and central bank independence:

The childcare voucher program POTUS trying to freeze serves 1.4 million children with low-income, working parents GOP has supported bcz parents must work (or do related activity) & care market based, not publicly produced. Grew from 1990s welfare reform Freeze'd destroy jobs & destabilize families

The Bank of England cuts key interest rate to 3.75%, the first reduction in 4 months.

Small businesses offer another indication of downward pressures on wages ahead, with NFIB wages making new cycle lows. Remember small biz employs about 50% of US workers.

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Trump’s approval on the economy and immigration have fallen substantially since March, according to a new AP-NORC poll, latest indication that two signature issues that got him elected could be turning into liabilities: apnews.com/article/trum...

1.59 American employee quit their job for each employee fired by their boss in Oct, lowest level since Jan 2018 outside pandemic This #LaborLeverageRatio proxies for employee bargaining power in jobs cuz workers ⬆️ quits when their outside options improve & bosses ⬆️ firings when theirs do

Job openings report shows interesting shift in hiring: _ Lower-paid job listings in retail and warehousing rose sharply -- likely for holidays tho data seasonally adjusted. _ Yet higher paying sectors cut job postings, including IT, finance, and professional services. Is this AI impact?

After months, Cook has not been indicted. All of this is embarrassing for Fhfa director bill pulte who found these alleged frauds to help the prez take control of the fed and use the legal system to exact revenge. He’s batting zero.

WASHINGTON (AP) — The National Park Service will offer free admission to U.S. residents on President Donald Trump’s birthday next year — which also happens to be Flag Day — but is eliminating the benefit for Martin Luther King Jr. Day and Juneteenth. apnews.com/article/nati...

"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has stepped up his criticism of the Fed’s 12 regional bank presidents after several of them made clear that they opposed cutting the Fed’s key rate at its next meeting in December." apnews.com/article/fede...

There seems to be a view out there that this is not being reported, which is not right: apnews.com/article/trum...

A classic. @apnews.com apnews.com/article/dona...

One of the most interesting things about the "K-shaped economy," with higher-income households pulling away from lower-income earners, is how some large companies are re-shaping their businesses in response. Read our story for more: apnews.com/article/ksha...

Brands are definitely bifurcating along with the economy, but you don't expect it to come from inside the company: apnews.com/article/camp...

“A tamale vendor was detained outside a Home Depot. “Soon after, federal agents arrested a flower seller in Archer Heights. “Then they came for a cotton candy vendor in Little Village.” apnews.com/article/chic...

Odds of a December rate cut have RISEN after jobs report, likely because uptick in unemployment rate, which Fed sees as better metric than jobs since it captures changes in immigration/population. Still, seems wrong -- rate cut is predicated on threat of rapid drop in hiring, which didn't happen.

Shrewd analysis here from Evercore's Krishna Guha on the Fed minutes: apnews.com/article/econ...

Trump's claims that each boat strike saves 25,000 lives doesn't add up: apnews.com/article/trum...

WASHINGTON (AP) — What was once seen as a near-certain cut in interest rates next month now looks more like a coin flip as Federal Reserve officials sharply disagree over the economy’s health and whether stubborn inflation or weak hiring represent a bigger threat. apnews.com/article/econ...

Calls for 4-5 dissents at the Federal Reserve's Dec. meeting are likely exaggerated. Still, this comment from Fed Gov. Waller yesterday is interesting, re: alleged 'group think': “People who are accusing us of this, get ready. You might see the least group think you’ve seen... in a long time.”

You can see why the White House is going to exempt coffee, beef, and bananas (among many other foods) from tariffs: coffee and banana prices are near highest levels in more than a decade, worse than the pandemic (not all because of tariffs). Ground beef also trending higher:

Federal Reserve chair candidate Kevin Warsh in Sunday's op-ed in WSJ praises Trump policies, US innovation, and this year's Nobel laureates, who won for research on innovation. Yet the winners seemed to have a different view of Trump policies, as NYT noted: www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...

Amazing story here -- Officials at Fannie Mae sounded alarm about potentially inappopriate data sharing by Trump appointees, got fired. @apnews.com: apnews.com/article/fann...

I cannot emphasize enough that increasing foreign investment in the US and shrinking US trade deficits are in direct, irreconcilable tension w/ one another. *US TO LOWER TARIFF RATE ON SWISS GOODS TO 15%, GREER SAYS *SWITZERLAND AGREED TO $200B INVESTMENT IN THE US, GREER SAYS

St. Louis Fed's Musalem adds to chorus of caution about future Fed rate cuts in remarks just now: "Going forward, I think we need to...tread with caution. ... there is limited room" for more cuts. Says Fed's rate is "probably getting closer to neutral rather than modestly restrictive"

Boston Fed's Susan Collins is the latest Fed official to come out against another rate cut in December, putting a third cut this year at risk. Atlanta Fed's Bostic also forcefully spoke against another rate cut earlier Wednesday:

Allow me to translate. October data was not collected as field staff were all furloughed. In some cases, that data can be recovered from businesses. In other cases, the window to collect the data has closed (consumer prices, labor force status) and the data hole may be permanent.

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic to retire in Feb. 2026, opening spot on key Fed interest-rate setting committee. Trump won't be able to name replacement -- successor to be chosen by Atlanta Fed's board. DC-based Fed board of governors will vote on replacement.

“It’s an insider-outsider thing… where outsiders that need jobs are struggling to get their foot in, even as insiders are insulated by what up until now is a low-layoff environment.” - what I told ⁦ @apnews.com ‘s @chrisrugaber.bsky.social

Trump trade war costs US Italian pasta: “Exporters say import and antidumping duties totaling 107% on their pasta brands will make doing business in America too costly and are preparing to pull out of U.S. stores as soon as January.” Via WSJ

Always nice to see the @apnews.com ahead …

No jobs report today because of the government shutdown, but other reports suggest hiring remained weak last month. The 'low hire' job market makes life difficult for the unemployed and is leading to longer spells of unemployment, which is unusual outside a recession: apnews.com/article/jobs...

The Trump administration alleges the boats targeted by recent U.S. strikes were being operated by narco-terrorists and cartel members. The AP identified four of the men who were on the boats—and found the truth is far more nuanced.

“This case, ladies and gentleman of the jury, is about a sandwich.” Closing arguments from the defense in the DC sandwich guy case are now underway.

ADP's jobs tally shows a rebound last month with 42,000 net jobs gained, after 2 months of losses. Yet high-paying sectors like professional & business services (accounting, etc.) and information (IT) lost jobs; so did restaurants & hotels, a worrying sign of a weak consumer:

BREAKING: Democrat Aftab Pureval wins Cincinnati mayoral election over Cory Bowman, half-brother of Vice President JD Vance. Follow AP for live updates.

BREAKING: Democrat Ghazala Hashmi won the lieutenant governor’s race in Virginia on Tuesday, defeating Republican John Reid. She is the first Indian American and first Muslim to win statewide office in Virginia. Follow AP for live updates.

Read the November issue of Economic Compass by Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG. She examines how on the one hand, the economy is booming, mostly on AI investment. On the other hand, the labor market is lagging, something that started this year. kpmg.com/us/en/articl...