A former staffer said that U.S. officials would not be performing a formal occupation like in Iraq. “We’re going to tell them: ‘Hey, this is what you have to do in order for there not to be another strike. That’s what [Trump] sees as running the country.” www.washingtonpost.com/national-sec...

Polls conducted in late 2025 show that most Americans, by a 25-50 point margin (depending on question wording), oppose the use of military force against Venezuela. www.gelliottmorris.com/p/americans-...

To sum up the US position a) America is going to "run" Venezuela though it has nobody in place to do so b) the new leader of Venezuela will co-operate with the US even though she says she won't c) even if Venezuela gets democratic leaders, the US will run its oil industry whether they like it or not

The religious subtext of Stranger Things; new Substack piece, with spoilers philipcoggan.substack.com/p/the-religi...

1/11 Philip Coggan: "It is a mug’s game trying to predict the end of a boom with any precision. They last much longer than anyone might reasonably expect. That is true of bull markets, as well as economic advances. The reason is that markets... @philipcoggan.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/2ae4...

My FT Long View on Soros's reflexivity theory and the AI boom www.ft.com/content/2ae4...

I have spent 25 years as a regulatory lawyer of one kind or another, and I have come to realise one truth. In any commercial context, the regulator will tend to be captured. And in any lucrative commercial context, the regulator will be captured completely.

Set a new personal best of 25,000+ steps a day this year According to the iphone that was 17.3km a day, or 6,314km (3,923 miles) in total. Of course, I'm now a very long way from home...

Now he is literally the Poundland Donald Trump

The Conservatives and Reform are currently saying that UK free speech laws are so draconian that people are routinely jailed for bad takes, and yet also the only way to deal with Alaa’s social posts is to extra-judicially strip him of citizenship. www.thenewworld.co.uk/james-ball-c...

Interested to see the story in The Times that Dom Joly was refused an ESTA because of his social media activity. Are there any other documented examples?

By way of context the annual USAID budget was $23 billion.

Nigeria brings to six the number of countries in which, or against which, the winner of the Fifa peace prize has launched military action in 2025: the others were Iran, Somalia, Syria, Venezuela and Yemen.

In response to the reappearance of MMT, I have, somewhat reluctantly, written up where the current crop of 'pop MMT' goes wrong. The short version: yes the central bank issues money; no this doesn't change anything. criticalfinance.org/2025/12/19/w...

Important piece by John Burn-Murdoch. In the absence of growth, voters see politics as a zero-sum game where others must be punished www.ft.com/content/30a4...

The White House claims the vote to rename the Kennedy Center was “unanimous.” That is false. I was muted on the call and denied the opportunity to speak or register my opposition. That is not consensus. That is censorship.

It's dark and miserable, but the nights are about to start drawing out. Tomorrow the sun will set in London at 15.52, having set at 15.51 today

Trump’s ballroom went from $200 million to $250 million to $300 million to $350 million to $400 million to …

Time to say thank you to people who are constantly denigrated by some politicians and parts of the press. Last Substack of the year is a thank you to immigrants philipcoggan.substack.com/p/a-thank-yo...

The BBC doesn't have $10bn. All its money comes from British citizens via the licence fee. Trump is thus suing the British people. www.ft.com/content/e2f1...

What a legend

Striking stat in this piece from the admirable Chris Giles. Economic growth under the Cameron coalition's 2010-2015 term averaged 2%. www.ft.com/content/5aff...

'Complete nonsense.' Met Police Chief Sir Mark Rowley rubbishes Donald Trump's claims about violence in London under Sadiq Khan.

ICE detain U.S. citizen for looking Somali—use illegal chokehold to tackle him to ground. Man repeatedly begs agents to look at his digital passport ID—they refuse. Drove him 7 miles away before releasing him alone into Minnesota snow storm—told him to "walk home" in freezing weather advisory.

Katie Martin made life peer. Hoping this is the start of a trend of recognising Long View writers.

Apart from the chilling impact on free speech, this is a massive expansion of bureaucracy that will put off many potential tourists. Furthermore, inward tourism counts as an export; so choking it will worsen the trade deficit that Trump so cares about www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t...

This is INSANE www.nytimes.com/2025/12/09/t... and these are our closest allies!

Just noticed in "The War Between the Land and the Sea", the villainous businessman has on his table a pink paper named "The City Echo". Guessing Russell Davies is not a fan of the FT

Fitting crypto into Minsky's framework; it's all Ponzi all the time. New Substack piece philipcoggan.substack.com/p/crypto-the...

Interesting piece from Victor Haghani on the probability of a stock market crash. Allows you to make your own estimate of a 30% fall over the next 12 months elmwealth.com/stock-market...

Can you hear the drums for Lando? www.theguardian.com/sport/2025/d...

In 40 years, I cannot recall a major bank forecasting that the $&P would DECLINE 20% in the following year.

Agents in Key Largo, Florida ripped this woman wearing medical scrubs out of her car as she screamed she is a US citizen. Agents cuffed her and put her in one of their cars. She was eventually let go, per David Goodhue of the Miami Herald, who also took this footage:

The link to the Disorder podcast is here linktr.ee/disorderpod#...

Trying to explain Trump's strategy without sane-washing; a piece partly inspired by my appearance on the Disorder podcast. philipcoggan.substack.com/p/finding-a-...

Imagine all cars were electric, and then one Volkswagen engineer comes up with another idea … #EMobility

Marriage advice to young ladies from a Suffragette wife 1918 "Do not marry at all" 👀 (pamphlet on display at the Pontypridd Museum, Wales) #Herstory

The vox pop reaches a new level in today's Times when the populus is represented by Hugo Dixon, old Etonian, friend of Boris, ex-head of the FT's Lex Column and founder of the Breaking Views financial website. I know he counts as a mansion owner but surely he's an expert, not a man on the street

Spend tens of thousands of pounds to avoid an annual £2,500 charge! Or wait for the next government to abolish it

Who would have thought setting up a company which borrowed money to buy a highly volatile asset would end so badly? Like trying to cross a motorway on a unicycle www.ft.com/content/5347...

Reeves did pull off a reverse Truss today: pound up, shares up, gilt yields down

Witkoff is not buying the Russian narrative. He is selling it.

How Wolf Hall came to the White House. New piece on the parallels between the courts of Henry VIII and Donald Trump. philipcoggan.substack.com/p/how-wolf-h...

Just came across (thanks to Paul Krugman's substack) this remarkable piece on the tendency for kidnappers to target owners for crypto www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/b...

Delighted to speak about "The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump" at the Cambridge Literary Festival last night in a session chaired by @willdunn.bsky.social Thanks to all who turned out on a very wet evening

This is extreme but still on the spectrum of 'natural' or 'physiological' birth which is still promoted by some as superior (and still causes harm). Much like vaccines, the success of modern maternity care has made people forget how common and potentially serious birth complications are.

Great to have two books featured in the Economist's Christmas round-up. The Trump one will even fit in a stocking... www.economist.com/culture/2025...

Montage of 19 clips of Trump insulting, berating, demeaning and attacking female reporters over the past few months. Part 1.

The firing, or retirement, of bears is a classic sign of a market top. Other signs are also apparent. But one crucial factor remains supportive. New piece on substack philipcoggan.substack.com/p/when-bears...