Since the pandemic began, I have been steadily rewatching classic Who episodes. The cheesiness is part of the charm; recently I have seen Tom Baker menaced by a giant glowing brussel sprout and a puppet lobster. Baker's performance is so magnetic it doesn't matter

UK tax has gone up significantly over the last 25 years But the tax paid by the average UK worker has not This apparent miracle was achieved by taxing “other people”: higher earners, capital, property, banks, etc The strategy has run out of road A 🧵 on what happens next.

Nigel Farage Listens to the News

📚💙🇺🇸 #BookDrop #booksky #History #USA #The-Economic-Consequences-of-Mr-Trump What the #Trade-War Means for the #World (Philip Coggan) is the one piece of reading I knew I needed to get done quickly, for my clarity. suggested reading if you are seeking sense of this os5.mycloud.com/action/share...

This poll, although it inevitably has a large margin of error, has changed the betting. Labour now around 1/5, Reform 4/1 www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...

Why retail investors should steer clear of the SpaceX IPO. new Substack piece philipcoggan.substack.com/p/hello-suck...

DfE pupil data is out today and shows that the number of private school pupils has dropped 5.6% since VAT was introduced. Not 25% like the independent schools council predicted. Or the 50% we saw in some right-wing papers. 5.6%.

Very good piece that should be read by as many people as possible www.ft.com/content/aa94...

Just noting that when Sarah Everard was kidnapped and murdered by a police officer and a vigil held for her on Clapham Common, Farage urged people not to attack men or the police.

Keir Starmer calling out Nigel Farage over his response to the Henry Nowak murder

I am enjoying What if Reform Wins on Audible by Peter Chappell. But my tip to narrators who aren't actors is "Don't do accents". I gave up on a history book because all Germans had a "Zis ist wunderbar" tone and all UK characters sounded aristocratic, even Lloyd George who grew up speaking Welsh

Every crime in which an ethnic or cultural minority is the perpetrator used to justify repression or worse of minorities. Every crime in which a minority is the victim used to argue for the idea that ethnic diversity is inherently unstable and should be reduced or eradicated.

Do you want to hear a report on the world's only penis museum? You know you do. It's the last item (around the 25 minute mark) on this week's From Our Own Correspondent by @sandrakanthal.bsky.social www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m...

Bored of peace

Since the Makerfield by-election was called, the odds on Labour have shortened from around 1 to 2 to 1 to 3 (you get £1 back for a £3 stake) while those on Reform have lengthened from 2 to 1 to 3 to 1 (£3 back for a £1 stake). www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri...

🤔

Excellent debunking thread which shows that, in fact, 10 young Britons were hired for every 1 non-EU national

Since Christian theology is based on principles of tolerance and "love thy neighbour as thyself", this means Restore supporters are by definition, not Christian, and must deport themselves

If I were the government, I simply would not be directing eyeballs and the political conversation to a website run by a guy who has explicitly said he opposes the PM and is visibly fighting an information war against me.

This shouldn't be too much of a surprise. Shiller's data (see below) show that real house prices in the US went nowhere for a century (1890-1990). The oddity is when they do consistently outpaceinflation

I am shocked - shocked! - to discover this was a vanity project not really intended to benefit the people of Gaza

Legitimate concerns people doing their violent thing. True patriots and protectors of women. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

War is Peace. Ignorance is Strength. Freedom is Slavery. In a ceasefire, we do not cease firing.

*Protect Our Women* from *fighting age men* with primitive misogynistic views who *don't share our values*

Restore is on 7% in that Makerfield constituency poll. I wrote this week why they're a threat that needs to be taken seriously. And why splitting the Reform vote isn't worth the normalisation of what is, in effect, a neo-Nazi party. samf.substack.com/p/is-andy-bu...

"Mike Pompeo, secretary of state during Trump’s first term, described the deal as “Not remotely America First” and no better than the one signed by the Obama administration, Iran and five other nations in 2015." www.ft.com/content/a27c...

Some fascinating charts in this piece on the idea of Secular Stagnation and how the concept looks shaky given rising bond yields by Marco Annunziata. You might think that ageing populations would save more, but they haven't justthink.substack.com/p/rising-yie...

More people should read this piece by Sushil Wadhwani, one of the nicest City folk I have ever met and someone who rarely uses hyperbole. But he has dire warnings about the prospects of a Reform government www.theguardian.com/business/202...

I can excuse @iaindale.bsky.social's ignorance here. Just because anyone with a very basic economics education should recognise the lump of labour fallacy doesn't mean he should. But the arrogance combined with the absolutely deliberate refusal to think is quite remarkable.

Trump shortlist for Gabbard's replacement Anya Amasova Bill Haydon Rosa Klebb Xenia Onatopp

Andy Burnham's gamble is the UK's Sliding Doors moment. New free post on Substack philipcoggan.substack.com/p/the-uks-sl...

With bond yields rising, sharing my FT piece from last year. QE has stopped, and the share of DB pension funds has declined, reducing the need for liability matching. So governments are more dependent on international return-conscious investors to buy bonds www.ft.com/content/2209...

Forest are safe!

"There is little to no statistical relationship between Reform performance and Labour performance, but a very strong (negative) relationship between Labour and Green performance." @patrick-pme.bsky.social

Bloody hell.

My grim assessment of where British politics is heading. By 2029, Britain may no longer be a country I want to live in philipcoggan.substack.com/p/britain-ta...

Pleased to be speaking about "The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump" at the Lewes Speakers festival tomorrow. Also delighted to be following a distinguished former FT colleague @groomb.bsky.social on stage www.speakersfestivals.com/lewes-speake...

It's 9th May. When I first posted this over on "the other place" in 2020, I was vilified and castigated by trolls, vatniks, genuine Russophiles and actual Russians in pretty much universally the same terms. It was fascinating to watch the reaction change over time each year I reposted it.

There is something wonderfully joyful and British about voting, as I did today. The ramshackle nature of the process - the pencil, the plywood booths, the church or school hall, the friendly officials - all suggest a nation in which trust has not entirely disappeared (photo ID apart)

So, in return for Iran putting a moratorium on nuclear enrichment (facilities which Trump said he had totally obliterated last year) and for reopening the strait (which was open before the war), Iran will get sanctions relief and see its funds unfrozen. Seems like a win for Iran

Predictably, Freedom didn't last long under Trump www.ft.com/content/5f7b...

So c£2000 per Briton

More private schools have opened than closed since Labour's VAT hike, reports the Independent

This is what the cognitive test President Trump is talking about here looks like. It doesn't get more difficult, and it isn't long (it's scored out of 30 points, total). It's not really something you can "ACE". A score of 26 or less is a cause for concern.

Given the goal difference (17 in Forest's favour), West Ham now need 7 points from their last three games to overtake Forest. One of those games is against Arsenal. And Forest still have two home games left. But I don't want to jinx it...

When Putin invades Ukraine - no one murders Russians in the the UK When Trump attacks Iran -- no one murders Americans Yet when Israel goes to war - Islamists murder Jews and liberals see it as an understandable reaction to Netanyahu's crimes Podcast on excusing racism below PLUS...

"You're going to Lincoln, we're going to Spain". Brentford fans mock West Ham supporters in a 3-0 win that makes Europe more likely for the Bees and the Championship more likely for the Hammers. Great result for Forest

Genuinely baffled by these stories. If landlords sell a property, someone must buy them. That buyer is either another landlord or a private individual. If that individual is a renter, both supply and demand for rental property have fallen by the same amount 1/2 www.ft.com/content/3341...

‘I Set Up a Fake Far-Right News Channel to Interview Reform UK Candidates and This Is What They Told Me’ The Reform hopefuls were quick to condemn scandals supposedly overseen by Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat councils, without realising they were actually condemning the actions of…