I'm really looking forward to leading a student research project at the ELLIS Summer School on AI for Earth and Climate Sciences in Jena this September! What a great lineup of speakers, mentors and tutors www.ellis-jena.eu/summer-schoo... @ellisunitjena.bsky.social @ellis.eu

So excited to be organising this. Don't forget to register if you'd like to attend! We want to bring together people from different disciplines, so if your background is ML without the Ag, or vice versa, but you're interested in learning a bit about the other side - join us in Leipzig (or online)

📢 The 2nd AgML Workshop will be held at @ufz.de Leipzig from November 3–5th! Let's bring together researchers and practitioners in agriculture and machine learning to share knowledge & create open benchmark datasets and model evaluation protocols. Register by July 31: events.hifis.net/e/agml2025

📢 Tomorrow (27th May) at 16:00 CET, join our next online seminar on knowledge-guided machine learning for crop growth modelling! We will be hearing from Jingye Han, a researcher at Wageningen University. Open to all - get in touch for the Zoom link or join the AgML mailing list.

The peat map issues are in the Times today (@catframpton.bsky.social and I are quoted) - www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

More and more peat map issues identified. If only all ML maps used in academic research got the kind of painstaking sanity-checking that Cat's been doing

The @ufz.de is currently offering funded fellowships for international researchers willing to visit and collaborate with us. I'm involved in this one, with a focus on "Socio-Environmental Modelling of Land and Water Systems": recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/32...

Looked at the report to see how they evaluated model performance and what a surprise - the reported accuracy metrics are based on randomly sampled datapoints. Spatial data is not i.i.d., and model evaluation is the hardest part of any ML project (but not as fun as trying a dozen model architectures)

🔥🌍 In a new paper led by Sifang Feng, we find a growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in weekly regional fire extremes. 📈 On average, climate change was responsible for a fraction equal to 8 ± 4% of the predicted probability of more than 700 fire extremes worldwide between 2002 and 2015.

📢 Today at 16:00 CET: Vasileios Sitokonstantinou presents research on invariant (causal) learning for robust yield predictions, kicking off our monthly seminar series on AI for agricultural research & modelling. Reach out for Zoom link, mailing list members will receive it by email. See you there!

Transdisciplinary coordination is essential for advancing agricultural modelling with machine learning. The opportunities are great, but to avoid pitfalls, we need to establish benchmarks, evaluation criteria and best practices. Our perspective: www.cell.com/one-earth/fu... @cp-oneearth.bsky.social

We are hiring 3 PhDs at the UFZ PhD Cohort SEESAW - Societal and environmental impacts of complex extremes in a changing world I'll be supervising a project looking at the interactions of flood and drought impacts 💧🔆 Apply here: recruitingapp-5128.de.umantis.com/Vacancies/31... #academicjobs

Another nice office for the morning - the State Library of Western Australia in Perth

Announcing the AgMIP starter pack! We will regularly update our list, so reach out if you'd like to join! go.bsky.app/Cw6L6ig

Another day, another office...the Edge at State Library Queensland. Great view, lovely coffee!

I've put together a starter pack of PhD students working in sustainable food systems, food justice, and environmental sciences, for anyone that would like to connect with fellow PhD students. Let me know if you would like to be added! #academicsky #foodstudies go.bsky.app/Rh1AvK5

Saying goodbye to Gold Coast & its beautiful orb-weaver spiders - I'll be in Brisbane until Saturday (visiting CSIRO on Friday & hopefully giving a short talk). Get in touch if you're in the area!

Excited to share our recent paper led by Sophie Johnson on the relationship between sequential humid heat and precipitation events 🌡️☔ We identify where humid heat is associated with suppressed or enhanced rainfall, with implications for compound extremes! iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

If you're new to #Bluesky, our #Plant Modelling Scientists starter pack can help you find users you can follow to help you get started: bsky.app/starter-pack... #PlantScience Let us know in the comments or DM if you'd like to be added.

Coming soon: I’ll be hiring a PhD candidate to explore regions in Germany disproportionately affected by floods & droughts, focusing on cross-sector impacts and using NLP-driven datasets #academicjobs

My first starter pack - please do suggest people to join go.bsky.app/9T8hneP

Exciting Postdoc Opportunity! 🌟🌊🌏 Research fellow position at University of Melbourne to study the ocean's role in climate variability. You'll be working with myself, @nicolamaher.bsky.social and @andyhogg.bsky.social and also interacting with the ocean team from CliMA. bit.ly/4fmIFv4

Welcome to my office (for today)...

New policy brief, initiated by Ralf Seppelt, on the complexity of the concept of agricultural productivity beyond yield per area www.ufz.de/index.php?en...

Pretty happy with my office today! this is the State Library in Melbourne, where I did a couple of hours' work before visiting a local colony of fairy penguins. I'm in Australia for a few weeks, reach out if you're also down under :)

Welcome to all the Bluesky newbies! We've created a starter pack of compound events and multi hazard researchers and groups. Please send through suggestions for who else to add to the list go.bsky.app/Cy8PZju

I made a starter pack for those working in or adjacent to Machine Learning for Earth System Modeling! Apologies if I forgot anyone, and feel free to suggest people to add :) go.bsky.app/C5DQNCe

We're halfway through our Kaggle competition runtime, with 148 submissions so far! Despite using the same training data (1980-2020), submitted data-driven yield projections vary widely (median and interquartile range plotted). Try it for yourself: www.kaggle.com/competitions...

Can you learn from the past to predict future climate impacts? Our Kaggle competition has been running for 3 weeks, with 45 submissions so far. Despite using the same training data, models vary in their projected changes in global maize productivity... www.kaggle.com/competitions...

I've added a public notebook that trains a simple tree-based model and submits predictions to our Kaggle competition, to make it even easier to participate - just make a copy of the notebook and play around! www.kaggle.com/competitions...

Can we learn from the recent past to predict future climate change impacts using machine learning? We have created a new benchmark dataset designed to help answer this question, and you can take part in the challenge: www.kaggle.com/competitions...

A preprint I’ve been working on together with Olivier Pasche, Zhongwei Zhang, @zscheischlerjak.bsky.social, and Sebastian Engelke is out: arxiv.org/abs/2404.17652. We compared ML-based weather models and ECMWF’s HRES in case studies on 3 recent high-impact extreme events! Summary & a few thoughts 🧵👇

Two webinars to check out: 1) Avantika Gori presenting her work on compound tropical-cyclone hazards – www.youtube.com/watch?v=0mUb... 2) Raed Hamed discussing storylines for CE impacts on crops in an Xaida webinar – www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUWh...

Check out February's Early Career Researcher of the month @lilybellesweet.bsky.social Get to know more about her research 👇 compoundevents.org/blog/early-c...

New blogpost by @lilybellesweet.bsky.social about her research visit to NASA GISS in NYC in 2023! Lily-belle combines Machine-Learning with process-based crop modelling approaches. Check out the full blog post here 👇 compoundevents.org/blog/from-a-...

Ioannis Athanasiadis kicking off the first AgMIP Machine Learning (AgML) workshop in Wageningen! So excited to meet everyone in person and do some cool work together 🌾🤖

Join us in Wageningen in January for the first AgMIP Machine Learning (AgML) workshop! www.wur.nl/en/research-...

I really like the ending of this, interdisciplinary work is critical! And the subject of an upcoming paper of mine (which I’ll share when it is out!) 

Humans influence ecosystems directly & indirectly, e.g. their #drought resistance. Using 🛰️🌍 Chenwei Xiao shows that forests 🌲 are more resistant to #drought than crops 🌾, but secondary forests are less resistant than primary 🌲 w/ S.Zaehle, C.Schmullius, H.Yang & JPWigneron tinyurl.com/cxiaodrought

Local registration for the 2024 round of my FREE OPEN ONLINE Statistical Rethinking course has begun. I'll open up registration on Sunday 3 December. See theatrical trailer below and other details on the course github page #stats 🧪 github.com/rmcelreath/s...

INRAE knows how to put on a workshop lunch - top marks!

Where extreme weather meets emotions. 🌪️💖 Calling all minds at the crossroads of natural and social sciences - submit your abstracts to #EGU24 @eurogeosciences.bsky.social

Interested on Cascading and Compound Shocks for Food Production? Join our webinar from the WCRP Safe Landing Climates series, with Franziska Gaupp, Peter Alexander and Corey Lesk, focusing on state-of-the-art tools and challenges and possibilities. Details & Registration: wcrp-climate.org/slcds-3

From heatwaves to hurricanes, our #EGU24 session tackles Future Changes in Weather and Climate Hazards around the World 🌍🔥🌪️ Abstracts welcome here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio... @kornhuber.bsky.social

#EGU24 High-impact climate events After a year of countless record-breaking extremes, we organize (again) an #EGU24 session on understanding and quantifying such high-impact climate events and developing storylines for them! Submit your abstract here: meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU24/sessio...

☕ I'm very happy to have been interviewed by L'Express recently! Read here (in French) for some nice coverage of the impacts of climate change on coffee: www.lexpress.fr/monde/le-caf... with an accompanying video feat. me and some lovely shots of Brazil: www.youtube.com/watch?v=6ShF...

Happy to share our new conceptual paper on the importance of farm typologies for agricultural policy, superbly led by Robert Huber authors.elsevier.com/sd/article/S...

👋 Introducing myself to bsky: I'm a climate scientist! Follow me for any combination of the following: compound events, energy systems, fire weather and forecasting. Here's hoping for a return of the halcyon days of climate twitter.

Irrigation water demand in German agriculture bound to increase in the future, though with high spatial heterogeneity, shows Jasmin Heilemann at UFZ Science Days

This is my favorite image for communicating the idea of compensating errors/right answer wrong reason 😂