⚡️The Economist maps Russia’s hybrid-warfare attacks across Europe.

America is not open for business

1/n A few days ago, an article appeared in The Atlantic with a bold headline “Left-wing terrorism is on the rise.” www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc...

Children and young adults in London are being recruited by hostile states such as Russia and Iran to carry out sabotage and other crimes, the Metropolitan Police has said. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Important to remember it is possible to mobilise coalitions against the radical/far right.

Yep yep yep. www.theguardian.com/world/2025/s...

Well worth a read and reminder of the foreign dealings of these ‘patriots’.

New post looks at what Russia is trying to achieve with its airspace provocations; the NATO and EU response; Trump’s apparent change of heart; and the latest ideas on helping Ukraine manage the financial burden of the war. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/russian-pr...

An exceptionally tasteless headline from a publication that should really know better, especially at a time like this. But I suppose it resonates with a sensationalist Anglo crowd and their deeply rooted prejudices.

The UK ID card debate is tedious. A France/Belgium-style unifying social security number/digital ID is pretty unobjectionable stuff. It’s all about data security and the state’s audit trail. What does govt get to learn about you? Who is building it? How secure is access?

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen warned yesterday that a "hybrid war" has started in Europe after waves of drones shut down Danish airspace this week.

🔴Farage’s Trillion Pound Black Hole: The Real Cost of Reform UK’s Mass Deportation Plan Exclusive: Reform’s plan, which it claims would net huge savings over the coming decades, would actually cost about £70-90bn over the next ten years alone, analysis of official statistics and forecasts suggests

”Ireland, a non-Nato member which has historically relied on the UK and US for its defence, is particularly vulnerable to Russian sabotage; the accession of Sweden and Finland to the alliance two years ago has further increased its status as a relative outlier within Europe.” 🇮🇪 on.ft.com/4gQxrBi

Bonus episode @therestpolitics.bsky.social with Gerald Knaus on why we should be really worried re rise of far right in Germany and how MAGA are fuelling it, which should make us more worried still alastaircampbell.org/2025/09/453-...

🚀🇩🇪🛰️ “Germany's defence minister has warned that his country's satellites are being shadowed by Russian satellites. Boris Pistorius cited concerns over two 🇷🇺 Luch/Olymp satellites shadowing Intelsat satellites used by German forces and others.“

The German Chancellor calls on Europeans to massively step up their support to Ukraine, sets out how this can be done (new common borrowing) & why it matters to do this now. The German leadership we’ve been long been looking for: www.ft.com/content/3aac...

Big Tech's embrace of President Trump has left many of us wondering: What the hell happened to Silicon Valley? In our new politics issue, we're getting into it. Also, we're taking this cover across the US in billboards, posters and a mural. Clues to find us in the 🧵: www.wired.com/politics-iss...

"It's pretty clear that Russia says 'we are at war.' But in Europe, it's more that this can be managed. This is about deterrence, not defense," Ed Arnold, senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told the Kyiv Independent.

Good until he changes his mind in about an hour’s time.

After Ukraine, Moscow may turn its attention south. Africa Corps is already paving the way.

"Policymakers, analysts, and #cybersecurity practitioners should embrace and adopt a more nuanced taxonomy when attributing #cyber operations involving #hacktivist groups." tdhj.org/blog/post/ha... youtube.com/shorts/RVGPO...

Deterrence gets all the attention — but what about assurance? Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

This is bleak. What we are witnessing in the UK is exactly what I saw happen in the States as few years ago, where the traditional media outlets metamorphosised almost overnight and adopted the culture of "chasing clicks" and in doing so became addicted to Trumps prolific headline crafting.

Forecasting geopolitical events weeks or months in advance can help institutions anticipate—or even change—the future. Anthony Vassalo, co-director of the RAND Forecasting Initiative, explains the role AI now plays in forecasting efforts.

There should be a high bar for politicians attacking the media, but maybe Ed Davey has half a point here? For example, the first three paragraphs of this BBC story repeat Reform's £243bn figure without saying that the thinktank behind the estimate now disowns it. (This is mentioned in paragraph 35)

Honestly, the 1,5% was always just to get it to the nice 5%. What’s happening with the 3,5%, that’s what’s important (and also addressed in the article).

Sunday #HSF2025 opened with a pressing topic: Russia and the future of European security order. European security is about resources and resolve, said Senior Fellow @nigelgould-davies.bsky.social. “We do have the material capabilities – it’s up to us to summon the political will to act.”

No mincing of words in this @ecfr.eu policy brief on the China-Russia relationship ecfr.eu/publication/...

"An individual judged to be “a Chinese intelligence agent” was said to have commissioned at least 34 reports from Berry on subjects of political interest, some of the ideas for which were touted by Berry". www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025...

Estonia is calling on its Western allies to show unity in the face of growing aggression, the Baltic nation’s foreign minister said today after three Russian fighter jets entered its airspace.

I am in contact with the Prime Minister of Estonia Kristen Michal. I expressed full Latvian support to Estonia’s request to hold NATO Article 4 consultations. Important that NATO launched Eastern Sentry. NATO Air Policing Mission has responded decisively by protecting Alliance’s airspace.

@anneapplebaum2000 on the current moment of political violence: For the first time, “we have a social-media system that encourages the most outrageous, the most extreme statements, and then rewards them financially.” #TAF25 Watch here: bit.ly/46lDaLT

Farage did not become Trump's interlocutor; the White House did not torpedo the UK-EU deal; MAGA's dystopian view of Britain did not poison the well. The UK-US relationship has survived better than some feared - or hoped - a year ago. www.economist.com/britain/2025...

This, from @johnsipher.bsky.social, is excellent. Russia is weak and it's time we start acknowledging that. Out loud. In fact, very loudly. tomorrowsaffairs.com/putins-lies-...

BREAKING - Russian jets entered Estonia over the Gulf of Finland with their transponders switched off and flew close to Tallinn before Italian F-35s scrambled to intercept. ukdefencejournal.org.uk/nato-jets-sc...

After years of complaining about cancel culture, the current administration has taken it to a new and dangerous level by routinely threatening regulatory action against media companies unless they muzzle or fire reporters and commentators it doesn’t like.

After Ukraine, Moscow may turn its attention south. Africa Corps is already paving the way.

“Although many officials in China want the war in Ukraine to end, Beijing is unlikely to play a leading role in resolving the conflict,” writes Da Wei. What explains China’s ambivalence in Ukraine?

Our democracy is too precious to be a plaything for foreign tech barons. Elon Musk doesn’t care about the British people or our rights. He only cares about himself and his ego.

Objective data show BBC & ITV bias. Reform featured in 49 bulletins between January-July 2025 whereas Lib Dems(with 72 MPs) were in 18% of bulletins, with 35. Reform referenced in nearly 1 in 5 ITV News At Ten bulletins, but 6% for Lib Dems www.theguardian.com/media/2025/s...

What we know about the Charlie Kirk alleged shooter Tyler Robinson so far: - White - Straight - Male - Christian - Republican - Conservative background - 2nd Amendment supporter - experienced firearms user - a good son - 22 years old - outside of the murder, law abiding.

⚡️NATO to launch 'Eastern Sentry' in response to Russian drone attack on Poland. The Russian attack on Poland exposed serious holes in NATO's air defenses.

Just had a nice chat with a couple of National Guardsmen from Ohio in a DC metro station. They think DC is really nice! They’re not sure why they’ve been pulled away from their families.

www.telegraph.co.uk/gift/b2b3d40... Trump’s purge of CIA officers leaves us blind. Former intel officials from TSS warn of a climate of fear and distrust within the IC. With a less robust workforce, decreased intel sharing, and watered-down intelligence, we are less prepared to deal with threats.

The latest episode of Climate Conversations looks at how our changing climate is impacting nature. @weatheralex.bsky.social talks to @sophiepavs.bsky.social on the role of symbiotic relationships in the overall health of the ecosystem and how these are changing. 👀 www.youtube.com/watch?v=w5eI...

“Junior officers are often dismissed as inexperienced or overly idealistic – especially in strategic headquarters…In an organisation already struggling with retention, this misalignment of values has consequences.” Great, honest piece. cove.army.gov.au/article/dust...

The Steady State's own Larry Pfeiffer: "Gabbard's attack against the Global Trends report is emblematic of the Trump administration's comprehensive assault against expertise and the inconvenient facts that it can pose." www.intelligenceonline.com/government-i...

US backing for statement implies Israel’s attack on US ally Qatar may have been ‘bridge too far’ for Washington.

This has been the sort of violent rhetoric that Trump has been using against his perceived opponents for a decade and counting. If you want to know why political violence has ratcheted up in this country, look no further than the most infamous advocate for it.