Georgia, North Carolina (and Virginia before this) are the states turning blue that Republicans are most in denial of, and gives them the most conniptions over, so win-win

The only upside to this horrific situation is I think a lot of institutional Democrats who previously were apathetic about aggressive gerrymandering are now going to go to war

IMO there's a not insignificant chance that Trump tries to keep the blockade going, and then decides to escalate in a month when gas prices start skyrocketing because all oil reserves have been exhausted. That's where the wheels would really fall off

I think it's possible that trump chickens out and gives iran everything they want but it's also likely that he just runs the covid playbook: letting everything get insanely horrible for months while going on TV every day to say actually everything's fine

Assuming the CW is correct that nothing is going to happen until after Trump meets Xi, which means there's 2 weeks until we start hitting "operational stress" levels (the JP Morgan analysis here is based on the straits opening June 1

SCOTUS invoked the Purcell Principle, which is that courts shouldn't make changes that affect an election too close to an election, to block a decision that would have required Texas to change its maps *last December* but now since it advantages Rs it's fine to change maps after voting has started

very much of the view that a democratic congress should wield the guarantee clause against ad hoc, mid-decade redistricting, a practice which is an end run against representative government itself

The court creating, and then ignoring the Purcell principal here is some real next level hackishness bs

IMO VA Ds should pull the court age limit lever and queue things up for 2028 redistricting, not ignore the ruling. The extra seats won’t matter for 2027-2028, there’s some legislative advantage in 2026 by keeping more R seats competitive, & there’s a media double standard they’re fighting against.

I do think we eventually get a deal with Iran, but Trump put himself in a tough situation by making it clear he didn't want to resume hostilities, this giving Iran no incentive to really speed up the process beyond whatever timeline they want this to go on

Republicans have never been in a position where Democrats truly respond in kind to a lot of shit they pull, and they will not be happy with the eventual reckoning

We honestly don’t talk enough about how the GOP is just allowed to shit on urban cities. If Dems pulled this with rural areas, it would be on the news cycle for WEEKS!

The big silver lining in today's court decision is the legislature will likely move to make their control of the process permanent, instead of temporary

An imbalance that exists is Dems institutions exist to level the playing field and Republican institutions exist to tilt the field towards Republicans

the Dems have massive issues w/being more trusting in institutions, but if we're being real, the institutions have completely failed the Dems too.

And that is assuming all the seats the Republicans redistricted go their way. They put out two polls this morning showing them essentially tied in NC-01 and TX-34, both gerrymandered to be Trump+10

I feel like I’m taking crazy pills right now, assuming the expected states redistrict, the Democrats essentially need to flip 10-15 seats in the non-redistricted states to flip the House. And that’s crazy to believe i guess?

The VA Redistricting referendum passed by ~3.5% because a lot of VA Dems were a little iffy on this and the messaging from Republicans/media was THIS IS CHEATING Post-Callais when they're going fully mask-off, I uhhhh don't think the Republican Party is ready for the numbers they're gonna see next

I do think the way the redistricting wars ended up shaking out at the end here will increase the odds that Democrats truly go nuclear over the next 2 years and dismantle non partisan redistricting in their states. A lot of pressure on NY, CO, WA, and CA to permanently end commissions

It really is galling that the CA and VA Democrats showed voters the maps ahead of time and voters approved it, while Republicans did all theirs in one day with the legislature (and typically kept secret until the day before)

Per @justinlevitt.bsky.social, "It’s not a great look for this to be a 4-3 decision to overturn the will of the public + it’s really not a great look to lecture Virginians about the evils of partisan gerrymandering w/o mentioning the larger national context." talkingpointsmemo.com/news/virgini...

Don't worry we only have about 30 more months of sporadic fighting, "we're close to a deal" Axios articles, and Trump truth social threats

Unfortunately I think the only way out of this is with a permitting deal that only gets signed by a future Dem president. Taking away the power for admins to mess with energy approvals is going to be critical long term, when if that means reducing Dem power to halt fossil fuel projects

If the courts keep a weakened VRA in place, the you probably save 1 district in TN, LA, AL, MS, and maybe SC/GA

ik a lot of people have said this already, but the new TN map will give an answer on if the VRA is completely dead or not Even in a reduced VRA, the Memphis CD should be protected Its compact & contained and you have to go out of your way to split Shelby three ways like this

“We are the luckiest bastards alive,” he says of living in Marblehead. “We can’t also be the most self-interested bastards alive. They can’t be the same thing.” www.marbleheadindependent.com/he-asked-if-...

My thermonuclear hot take is that the Supreme Court of actually a lot less politically wise than they think they are, and keep setting up situations that may wind up having the opposite effect that they think they will

With 10 year gerrymanders there was a decent chance by the end of the decade demographic and coalition change opened up possibilities for massive changes in seats (see 2018), but if districts are drawn every 2 years there will never really be a chance to change control ever again

A state that redraws its legislative maps before every election to maximize advantage for the incumbent party is not a democracy or a republic and in any case obviously violates the guarantee clause, among many others. No country does this. No country ever thought of doing this. It is a total farce.

The real question that remains is whether the Supreme Court will allow a modicum of southern black representation (eg one VRA seat each in SC/AL/LA/MS, just not 2), or if Callais was just wiping them out without using as many words

However the Maine governor's race works out, there's going to be like 3 candidates kicking themselves for not running for Senate with hindsight being 20/20 and all

Echoing Medlock's post over on Twitter, I do hope that 2028 Dem tax proposals end up echoing the Cardin Progressive Consumption Tax. It's the best way to offer a tax cut while also reducing the deficit and helping low income families

Florida and Ohio shows that there are real potential gains to be made for Democrats if they can get independent redistricting commissions on the ballot that removes the power from the legislature completely. Unfortunately 2026 was likely their best chance for a while

The GOP entered this redistricting under the rather childish delusion they were going to gerrymander, and nobody would gerrymander them. In TX, MO, and a half dozen other states, they put their rather naive theory into operation. They sowed the wind, and now they are going to reap the whirlwind

To paraphrase General Sherman, gerrymandering is the remedy that Republicans have chosen, and I say let us give them all they want.

Given the insane amounts of money in politics now I'm surprised you don't see any coordinated effort to reboot a Dean-esque "50 state strategy" and seed organizers around the country just to see what happens. $5M gets you like 50ish organizers permanently embedded in communities

This really captures both the state of negotiations and the fundamental problem with Trump's negotiating strategy he desperately wants a deal, but he is unwilling to act in good faith to reduce tensions around the deal to make it easier to get an agreement x.com/i/status/204...

>JD Vance was unable to negotiate a comprehensive diplomatic agreement with Iran in like 12 hours No. No...this can't be right. I can't believe it.

very postmodern ceasefire where the bombings continue, the strait remains closed, and no one can agree on the exact terms but all that matters is the president saying it exists

Assuming the ceasefire holds and Iran continues to keep Hormuz flows to a minimum, by the time the ceasefire ends we're looking at end of May before anything materially changes. And that assumes the ceasefire isn't extended or war doesn't break out again

Two biggest questions at the moment: 1. How many ships does Iran allow per day? Is it close to normal operation or do they limit it to like 15 to keep pressure during negotiations? 2. How many ships go back into the strait to pick up more? At a certain point you need ships to return to normalize

Oh to be a fly on the wall of Tom Cotton's office now. Anti-Iran hawks who tried to sabotage JCPOA are absolutely seething I imagine

The funny thing about all the TACO-ing in this case is it doesn't actually help Trump that much. Unlike tariffs there are material consequences to continually pushing out the deadline: the Strait remains closed and is unlikely to open while talks continue

IMO one of the advantages of Dems embracing the "Abundance" agenda is the only way to really advance their priorities is to substantially grow the economy in the long term. There's no appetite to cut/tax the deficit to death, so reducing that whole growing the economy faster is the whole ballgame

This sort of reminds me of his March 2020 speech- it somehow made things worse because people realized there wasn't a plan

I do not see how Hormuz gets reopened with Trump saying stuff like this. He's explicitly saying any ceasefire agreement is meaningless! *TRUMP SAYS US WILL BE OUT OF IRAN PRETTY QUICKLY: REUTERS *US CAN COME BACK TO IRAN FOR 'SPOT HITS' ONCE WAR OVER: REUTERS

Kharg didn't make sense, if you want to control the oil just seize ships as they exit the straits, and any fighting would likely destroy the infrastructure there. The straits being closed is the main issue, which is that they need to solve

These are the wildest Trump swings yet. From "I'll bomb Iran's power plants" to "I may walk away from it all" in like 12 hours

Registering some takes: -No US ground moves this weekend, and the market recovers a bit next week hoping there's a fast ceasefire -Boots on the ground next weekend, they seize the islands in the Hormuz straits though, not Kharg -This prompts the Houthis to join the war

Honestly this is a good test of how far the market is willing to play along- will this extremely vaguely worded promise keep prices from sliding up?