we need snap midterm elections immediately

Now…

heated rivalry premiered too late for me last night but here we go 🙂‍↕️

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! extra positive vibes to those who the holidays might be difficult for this year, love y’all 🧡

I’m kind of a pie hater so got a tres leches for Thanksgiving instead 🙂‍↕️

here are all those percentages in graph format Dems obviously have a turnout advantage, the comparisons to 2022 and 2024's EVs look very similar to Virginia the EV did end up looking fairly similar to the primary though, it looked for a while that it would be better than the primary

woops, needed to sort final ev update from tn07: slightly geographically bluer than the primary, though Davidson fell behind the CD's % of primary and its share of the total EV from the primary after leading all window

I’ll run the cumulative numbers when I get home but here’s the voted cast today in TN07 Davidson - 2972 Williamson - 1783 Montgomery - 1525 Rest of TN07: 3382 Honestly very strong turnout in the district considering the reduced hours, 76% of yesterday in the rurals

2950 from Davidson today ❗️

penultimate look at EV from TN07, though who knows if we get the full EV update tomorrow or not Almost 75k votes cast, up 147% from the primary and 23% of 2024's total votes Davidson is still slightly ahead of the CD overall, but it's also got much of today all to itself

There was definitely a difference in methodology though; in NJ Emerson was weighting to both 2021 and 2024, so the polled “electorate” was Murphy+3, Harris+6 - not even close to the actual electorate This time they didn’t weight LVs to 2024, so no assumptions here 🙂‍↔️

Huh Emerson poll has TN07 deadlocked, with Behn leading early voters by 15 Someone summon a blizzard on Election Day

2440 out of Davidson today

happy two days until Thanksgiving and one week until eday in tn07 we're in a little bit of a peculiar window for the last few days where Davidson and the rest of the CD are on different timelines I hope we get the full EV update on Thursday even with the holiday lol

Body & health still WIPs but looking back, it’s hard to believe how far I’ve come (Also ik my hair is a mess I had just gotten out of the water and it was still drying 🫩) Now nearly 9 years and about a 150lb difference from my heaviest weight

gonna have to resub to hbo max just for heated rivalry at least the corporate overlords will know what I’m there for 🙂‍↕️

No EV to EV comparison but the D turnout edge is also visible at the precinct level Unfortunately very hard to parse details on the votehub site but it looks very similar to how the VA precinct early vote looked

Two full weeks of EV down: 3 days left for Davidson, 2.5 for everyone else About 55k votes cast so far, 17% of total 2024 votes; up 130.4% from the primary The bigger counties continue to do best as a % of 2024's total and compared to the primary

On a macro level, economic dissatisfaction is probably the #1 way to get the incumbent’s base deactivated (and to lose soft supporters) Still a year to go before 2026 but this is definitely “the thing”

Generational opportunity for Ds to regain ground on the economy as an issue

Montgomery finally updated and had 1400 today All other counties had only 3-4 hours of voting (and some reduced locations) so won’t be much but I’ll update the table with everything when we get it tomorrow

My goal has been to grow out my hair for the better part of 2.5 years For ~2 years I made no progress whatsoever, but in the last six months or so I’ve had (exceptionally slow, but) real growth It’s very exciting but I’m lowkey anxious/paranoid that smth will go wrong lmao

2000 EV from Davidson today lol

No doubt that sentiment is bad and people are pissed about the economy but UMich’s numbers have been extremely fake since the methodology change Do I think sentiment is 2009 levels? Nope, we’re not there yet But I do but this, being at 2022 levels civicscience.com/economic-sen...

Just open the second location the whole time, or make the second location the permanent one instead! bc don’t pmo…

The vast majority of R politicians are not authentically maga-pilled, but MTG always struck me as a true believer in the “project” of maga so maybe the maga disillusionment is real?

MTG resigning is like the first real holy shit moment of this presidency to me

Davidson had a big day today, about 1500 votes (Montgomery had 1400) With Davidson as the only county with a full final day of EV, we’ll def have a geographically bluer EV than the primary But even matching primary comp, Behn would also need a bluer EDay to be competitive

TN07 update About 42k votes cast, 13% of total 2024 turnout and up about 117% vs the primary Davidson is a bit ahead of the CD overall, so EV is geographically a few % bluer than the primary, but this is super imprecise when we only have county-level data and no partisan info

There seems to be genuine fear that’s settled in the market right now It’s like a complete 180 from the “ignore everything else and pump” euphoria from earlier this year

My stimulant delivery has been repeatedly delayed and I need to be up by 5 tomorrow good luck me 🫩

This only matters on the margins but the scheduling of the TN07 special feels a bit self-impeding from Rs EV window runs directly into Thanksgiving: EV is 1 day shorter, but Davidson is the only county in the district offering a full final day of EV on that Wed

I’m Steyer-pilled in California atp Unleash a couple hundred million to clear the primary field sir 🫡

I am interested to see if rural/Rep turnout picks up today in TN07 after the Kamala visit, but Chatham county is opening an additional location and Williamson is opening 2 So those two will see big turnout increases regardless, not bc of a “surge” 🙂‍↔️

I think you can fairly criticize the showboating but I do find the ardent defense of Garcia’s actions to be sooo embarrassing

I think the Supreme Court will intervene to uphold the Texas map but it would be objectively hilarious if the gerrymander which started all of this doesn’t even go through

in things literally no one asked for here are my personal top 10 pop songs this year (alphabetical order)

so ik a lot of Talarico stanning happens in my replies but this is my truth I’m still put off by how clearly he was just using the walkout to boost his profile before his run and he obviously didn’t gaf about redistricting itself And defending taking Adelson money is so…

Here's turnout through four days of EV in TN07 Over 20k votes cast, up 153.7% vs the same day in the primary. (This is also about 6.3% of total votes cast in 2024) The more populous counties have been most overperforming vs the primary so far

Miyares receiving fewer votes than he (and Herring!) received in 2021 is kind of silencing me lol

Statewide %RV turnout is just a hair below 2021, 54.3% vs 54.9%, but the electorates are very different 2021: Reddest localities held up best, bluest lagged 2025: Bluest cities and counties excelled, reddest (esp in SWVA) didn't show up

With Richmond’s update, we have what should be our final totals in VA Spanberger +15.36% Hashmi +11.56% Jones +6.68% Statewide turnout is 76.2% of 2024 Spanberger finished at nearly 85% of Harris’ vote total, and she also received more votes than Trump 2020 in VA

Here are the 20 closest HoD races from VA this year, including all 13 flips For educational purposes, I also put the net spending advantage/disadvatange the Dem candidate had I wonder if any patterns will emerge 🧐

The winner of that NJ special primary is going to get like 10% of the vote at this rate lol

Richmond is finally beginning to report! So far 1500 of >4k provisionals, splitting Spanberger 92.5-7.5

Albemarle County fully in (surrounds Charlottesville); was Harris +33.9 Spanberger +40.9 Hashmi +36.9 Jones +31.1 Turnout 83% of 2024, Spanberger at 89% of Harris’ vote total UVA precinct: Spanberger +77.5 Harris +63.5 (before provisionals, prob by less including them)

I’m guessing 10-15 counties in Texas will cast more raw votes in 2026 than in 2024 I’ll revisit after the primary but that’s my truth for now

ready to hear something unhinged Montgomery County, Tennessee day 1 of ev: 51.4% of 2024's day 1 day 2 of ev: 43.5% of 2024's day 2

Clean margins right now