I think in-person early voting in the Dem primary surpassed the IPEV total from the 2024 primary today Final 2024 number was 531k, and I would guess we are at least there now Final EV total maybe ~1.5m

Harris County’s IPEV today was 22k, D+35 Total EV is up to 123,210 and composition is D+24

monstrous turnout today, counties crushed yesterday for the most part even assuming stagnant turnout in Dallas/FB, over 500k total votes and 300k dem votes just between these 12 counties through four days of IPEV statewide, >900k total votes and >450k dem votes now

At least 110k IPEV Dem votes cast on Day 2 of EV (Wednesday) Should mean we're at least at 325k IPEV through three days, and easily crossing 450k today *Total* Dem IPEV in 2024: 531k 2022: 556k 2020: 886k

Dallas and Fort Bend joined us this morning! Dallas has ticked redder each day, Fort Bend has ticked bluer Insane turnout & today is already looking like a much bigger Friday jump than normal 12pm: Travis at 5044 vs 4089 yesterday All-time combined turnout record in play imo

Trump is going to spend the rest of the year trying to find mechanisms to reinstate tariffs that were just ruled illegal So tariffs are going to be back in headlines again, meanwhile uncertainty for businesses is gonna be super high

I have no idea how Trump will respond (I’m sure it will be very funny) but this is the vibe right now rip bozo

1. This is obviously the correct decision because the tariffs were obviously illegal 2. 6-3 is what i expected but still humiliating to have three side with him 3. Perhaps an all time Trump crashout coming?

Some people want to vote for Jon Ossoff because he’s “electable” or “charismatic” or they “like his politics” I would like to vote for Jon Ossoff because he is hot 🙂‍↕️

IPEV day 3 of 11 & massive turnout keeps chugging along Most of the largest counties ticked a bit bluer by composition today, and several counties will pass their Dem IPEV totals from the 2024 primary tomorrow

Travis just keeps getting a bluer primary composition lmao Today was 79% Dem (or D+58), 9018 out of 11434 ballots cast were in the Dem primary

Here's the same data presented in one image So yeah, with it seeming like Black voters do lean pretty heavily into EV (the Jefferson numbers are esp striking to me), I do think we should expect Crockett to do better in the EV almost across the board

In the 2024 & 2020 primaries, Allred and West each did meaningfully better in the early vote than they did on Election Day Here's the big city counties + Jefferson (the highest Black % county by far) Seems like Black voters do vote heavily EV, while EDay skews very Latino

ty fort bend county i love your math skills

Travis is running ahead of yesterday lmao Because both primaries are so high profile, question is if the really high enthusiasm is shifting more of the vote early or if it’s just gonna be a record-breaking primary

PEV turnout in the big 12 TX counties through two days except for fort bend because they hate joy and whimsy fun facts Tarrant has already cast 56% of its total Dem IPEV from the 2024 primary Williamson has cast 55%

Turnout was higher today across the board and most counties are seeing higher shares of Dem ballots than yesterday Seems very likely that there will be more Dem votes in the *early voting window* this year than there were in the *entire* 2024 Dem primary

Every county with a tracker outvoted yesterday in TX Travis: 10,526 vs 9840 (+7% with 1.5hrs to go) Polls closed at 5pm: MontCo: 5159 vs 4505 (+14.5%) Bell: 2642 vs 2350 (+12.5%) Ellis: 2261 vs 2234 (+1%) McLennan: 1632 vs 1569 (+4%)

Honestly, the TXSen D primary is kinda quaint It’s not sunshine, but like 99% of TX Ds like both (most of the discourse™ is non-Texan) But then you look at the Republican primary and I’ve received my 50th mailer from one candidate implying the other is a woke Muslim Jew

Here’s the hourly comparison for Travis A little under 3.5k through 12pm yesterday vs a little over 4k today

Yesterday’s turnout in Bexar was D+34 8294 Dem votes 4052 Rep votes

9-10 hour in Travis Day 1: 673 Day 2: 831 🙂‍↕️🙂‍↕️

It’s still very early in the day but Travis is so far outpacing turnout from yesterday 9:30 yesterday: 1029 votes 9:30 today: 1159

a few more counties Williamson with pretty great turnout, and very high D turnout today

Harris Day 1 EV 12015 Dem 8454 Rep 20469 total, D+17 2024: 13627, R+8 2020: 12212, D+12 (2022: 9851, R+7)

Here are some of the larger counties' Day 1s that have reported so far Seems to be extremely high turnout and the bluest primary electorate (by composition) in modern history so far

So I am just tuning back in, and it seems like the early rosters are very good for Dems

4:30pm and each county has exceeded 2024 Day 1 EV numbers Travis open until 7, Bexar until 6, the others close at 5:00 Have to head out, but I'll be back when counties start dropping their rosters and we can get more counties + partisanship info 🤠

I did in fact vote today though 🙂‍↕️

Numbers just before 3:30pm, now with some added context

also i'm comparing these counties to 2024 bc it's 1) the most recent election and 2) the non-Travis counties are growing so fast that they have like 25%+ more RVs than in March 2022 so the relative comparison is too distorted imo

Bexar County has also already smashed 2024 Day 1 EV in 2024 was 6742, and they were at 7902 with four hours of voting still to come

A “good” partisan split for Ds in the TX primary would be in the realm of 40% D & 60% R 2018, a year with excellent Dem turnout was R+18, 41-59 Two years with terrible Dem turnout: 2022 - R+30, 35-65 2024 - R+40, 30-70

Seems like all of these counties might set new all-time-highs for day 1 of early voting Travis’ previous high was 7034 in 2020 The other four’s 2024 numbers are their highs

First day of EV in 2024 - Travis: 3900 MontCo: 3600 Bell: 1950 McLennan: 1500 Ellis: 1100 2pm today - Travis: 5740 MontCo: 3210 Bell: 1680 McLennan: 1110 Ellis: 1500

Pretty incredible Through 5 of 12 voting hours in Travis, up to 3500 votes (total day 1 in 2024 was 3900!) Montgomery at 2050 Bell at 1100

Travis is pacing around 1k votes/hr right now

At 10:40am Travis: 2000 MontCo: 1250 Bell: 670 Travis will probably pass 2024’s day 1 with a third of the day still to go So, this year is easily going to be the highest midterm turnout for a Dem primary ever (to be fair the bar is in hell)

Suggests turnout is very strong, which I think was expected Two highly competitive primaries for senate and one less day of EV statewide should be juicing each day

First day of EV in 2024 total Travis: 3900 MontCo: 3600 Bell: 1950 McLennan: 1500 Ellis: 1100 9:30am today Travis: 1029 MontCo: 514 (including me!) Bell: 334 McLennan: 204 Ellis: 226 Travis is open 7-7, others are 8-5. So 2.5 hours for Travis, 1.5 for the rest

A few counties have live turnout trackers, so we’ll genuinely have a sense of enthusiasm/intensity within a few hours tomorrow by virtue of comparison with 2022 & 2024

I’ll be voting early tomorrow! Here’s how I’ll fill out my ballot Sen: Talarico Gov: Hinojosa AG: Johnson LG: Goodwin Comp: Eckhardt Land: Loya (admittedly could find very little about both candidates in this one)

Received 15 political mailers in the past two days 🤠

VA’s SC allowing the referendum to happen is probably a good sign for the new map The Tazewell court’s argument is that the referendum shouldn’t be allowed to happen in the first place If the SC were predisposed to agree, you’d imagine they’d issue a delay

Here is the promised sheet with partisan primary participation from 2018, 2022, and (soon) 2026 Date = 2026 primary election day, and the table is sorted by primary calendar docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Jesus Christ There genuinely has never been an administration that is as pro-cancer, pro-illness, and pro-death as this one Unless you’re a fraudster, pedophile, or exceptionally rich (and willing to bribe him), everything this admin has done is maximize suffering

EV starts in Texas next week! Primary turnout can, in aggregate, be a directional indicator of enthusiasm and midterm turnout Open primary states (like TX) are most interesting, and the last time TX had competitive races on both sides was 2016, so pretty interested in turnout here

I’ve been seeing a lot of “Ossoff +4/+5” hypothetical scenarios GA was R+2.2 vs R+1.5 nationally in 2024, almost in line with the national result. Ossoff’s a reasonably strong incumbent too So I’m saying we need to think bigger 🙂‍↕️

The new bls head is genuinely a good, serious fit for the role Any issues they have are probably downstream from doge leaving them disastrously understaffed and underfunded But there’s no reason to doubt the integrity there now, and if a reason emerges we will hear about it immediately lol

Took the UT (Texas politics project) poll today It tested the primary and general matchups, so we get at least one more poll-induced discourse bomb before Election Day (prob not before voting starts though)