yr ago tomorrow, PWC opened satellites for early voting Fifth big city/county to hit a point of reduced EV access Will make judging Dem turnout kinda difficult, but at least we have Henrico, Norfolk and Loudoun Loudoun/Henrico satellites open the 20th, Norfolk the 23rd

Incredible

updated, still nothing particularly interesting going on this is kind of the most "dead" period of the 45 day window, after the partisans rush out and before it ramps up towards the end of the window docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Finally got a precinct update from VA this morning, so the spreadsheet will update when I have access to my pc later on

this is by % of 24 total all highlighted counties have satellites (though varying numbers - Henrico will only have 1 more) yellow = no change to satellites orange = reduced access relative to 2024 when satellites open red = already has reduced access vs 2024

Starting tomorrow (tomorrow’s update, today’s votes) some big counties in VA will start falling considerably behind their 2024 numbers On this day in 2024, Richmond and Chesapeake opened their satellites but they won’t open until the 20th this year

Added 35 localities to the sheet, tracking precinct EV turnout Can click on the names of a HD or city/county to get taken to that tab now 🫠 docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

This is what I have set up for ~25 or so localities but I don’t have access to my computer so they’ll probably have to get added to the public spreadsheet tomorrow

Texas oomfs: We have 17(!) constitutional amendments on the ballot this year (and you might have local elections as well) The voter registration deadline is Monday & early voting starts on the 20th Can read about the propositions here: www.texastribune.org/2025/09/22/t...

let's play is it real or from a lack of satellites

I wish I had the audacity (and ignorance) to text a member of the opposing party joking about how you’d shoot the HoD speaker (over Hitler!) and then be like Yeah, that’s not gonna be a problem, I’ll just run for statewide office now 🤠 Must be a blissful life lmao

Alright, as promised Here's the EV precinct breakdown for the 19 closest HDs in @StateNavigate's forecast Have IPEV, VBM, and combined EV turnout as a % of 24's totals for each precinct in each HD I'll start adding full localities soon docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

I really like The Fate of Ophelia, though some of the writing on this album is truly heinous to me

I have a sheet with the 19 closest HoD races (per @statenavigate.org) and their EV broken down by precinct idk how much interest there is in it but I’ll probably make it public when I’m home later today and finish formatting it (I’ll prob start adding full localities later)

Spending way too much time on this silly precinct breakdown of all these HoD races 🫠

Update on the automatic voter reg by party affiliation in PA In August and September, Ds got more voters from AVR for the first time since AVR was introduced (9.4k vs 7.7k) I think it's still too early to tell if it's a legitimate trend, but it's something to keep an eye on

VA EV update Data is a bit quirky - localities hit hardest by Helene skyrocketed vs 2024 bc they have an essential extra day of EV Places like Roanoke City, Bedford, and Washington all look a lot better here than they actually are, but this distortion will fade over time

What are we doing here? Coal is dying. It’s a fading industry, and all the money and deregulation in the world will only prolong its death Lighting money, time, (and the planet) on fire instead of actually “unleashing American energy” solely bc they think coal isn’t “woke”

how is the interview with a vampire show? looking for something that is both gay and good and I’ve heard positive things about it 🙂‍↕️

Reposting with correct chart title, HD41: Trump +4.5, Youngkin +12, R+0.7 in 2023 HD is at 7% of total 2024 IPEV Harris pcts: 5.8% Trump pcts: 8% This HD holds Virginia Tech, which is fairly sleepy to start. Seat comes down to whether or not Ds can eventually activate students

HD82: Harris +4, Youngkin +2, R+0.3 in 2023 Harris pcts: 9.5% of 2024 total Trump pcts: 9.7% *However:* In 2024, Petersburg had already cast 20% of its total IPEV in the first four days (rest of the HD only about 11%), so it'll need a significant pattern change to keep pace

First HoD precinct EV dive HD71: Harris +5, Youngkin +8, R+2 in 2023 High turnout so far, already at 11.9% of its 2024 IPEV total Harris pcts: 12.9% Trump pcts: 9.3% In JCC, Harris pcts are at 13.1% vs 9.8% for Trump, but many of those are quite close

Big localities and their IPEV as a % of 2024, along with the day 3 IPEV and its % of 2024's equivalent day I will eventually use add EV, but it's too early to use total EV when we have very little VBM in and significant imbalances in VBM use between localities

so it's literally only two days of EV but in lynchburg there's a slight positive correlation between Harris % and relative IPEV turnout did i make this graph just to plot liberty university bc it looks funny? well yes! (they're 99% eday, so no EV isn't really unusual there)

jk I think we’re back 😇 I have to build all my formula pages out so no promises on when the interesting stuff comes But I’m curious to see which parts of Loudoun, VB, Stafford, etc. are turning out for those HoD races entirely within one locality

In 2023, I had access to an absentee file for VA that had EV by locality (and precinct) all I had to do was copy paste and it’d populate This year I’m doing it manually through VPAP (🫠) so I’m gonna mostly focus on the most important localities for HoD races

The results column on the right side of the table ended up getting offset by one somehow 😵‍💫 The original has it correct and here’s the corrected version for the second

bc someone asked, here's the same chart but with the 10 most pro-Trump localities tacked on separately Most of the bluest counties not already included don't have data yet (Williamsburg, Petersburg, Richmond) but Charlottesville and Falls Church flopped like the reddest ones

Here are the biggest localities in VA (that have data on VPAP) organized by their day 1 IPEV as a % of 2024's day 1 IPEV

I don’t think high EV turnout (especially relative to 2021) is a sign of high overall turnout (especially not on day 1 lol) Rs only embraced EV meaningfully last year, and many Dems were still using VBM bc of covid in 2021 So we should expect IPEV to crush 2021’s totals

Incredibly, early voting starts tomorrow in Virginia Unfortunately, I will be posting about it! (fair warning 🙂‍↕️)

Kathy Hochul is so interesting She’s terrible at politicking and often has mediocre politics, but her political instincts can be quite good at times favorability: +3 job approval: +14 lmao Trump has obviously helped her image a lot (Delgado’s Mamdani imitation is so cooked)

oh my god the fact that he’s doubling down here is insane “unless Lender otherwise agrees” the estimate shows that they knew they were preparing that mortgage for a vacation home! And unlike Pulte’s parents, she never claimed a second primary residence tax exemption

Good people of CO-08, please do not nominate the 72 year old state treasurer over this guy

Need Rutinel to win now to dramatically increase the attractiveness of the caucus

the fact that I’m going to get asked by my parents about what notices bulge OWO means… Genuinely the dumbest timeline

I mean this is just comically vile www.nytimes.com/2025/09/11/h...

CPI +0.4% MoM Core CPI +0.3% MoM (actually .35%, just barely rounded down) Certainly not ideal They’re obviously still cutting this month but the path forward is needlessly complicated the dumbest trade policy imaginable

really really grim can only hope for the best right now

I’d love nothing more than to be proven wrong on this, but (to me) Talarico seems like someone who would play better in Kansas than in Texas He’s just so reminiscent of Buttigieg to me, and I worry about how he’d do with nonwhite voters

… This has to be the most embarrassing response imaginable

73° cloudy and a light breeze These are the ideal weather conditions. You might not like it, but this is what peak performance looks like

goated 5 track opening run can’t stop the high is probably my favorite on the album atp

First impressions of man’s best friend have my favorites something like 1. When did you get hot? 2. Tears 3. Never getting laid 4. Nobody’s son 5. Sugar talking WDYGH really clears for me though

This one is the diva so far 🙂‍↕️