wtf is going on here

I did this last year in the primary so I’ll do it again this year Gonna track how the combined D-R vote shares & margins shifts after election night in a bunch of congressional districts Obv will get the competitive ones, but if yall have requests lemme know

What’s particularly irritating about CA’s vote counting is that the vast majority of votes counted after election day are not “late mail” arriving after eday So even if you really wanted that grace period, it really wouldn’t be hard to get >90% counted on election night

Orange County has a live turnout tracker, which is conceptually kind of funny in a predominantly vbm state In 2022, the tracker stopped updating after election night and was about 20% shy of the eventual turnout total No vbm update today yet updates.electionlink.net/widgets/oran...

Happy pride! Everyone should be gayer 🙂‍↕️

Small PSA: just like in 2024, we can probably expect the post-eday ballot counts in CA to be much bluer than 2020/2022 We’re seeing the vote start to trend bluer, but Rs embracing IPEV + Ds returning to pre-COVID habits = bluer late mail + dropoffs tracker.politicaldata.com?type=statewide

ok so thoughts on TXSen, *imo* - JT isn't as strong as some people think, he is an awkward fit for TX - But Paxton is far weaker than some people think Paxton not underperforming by as much in 2022 isn't a compelling counter, being downballot in a red year hides weakness, see:

This is far from perfect, so caveats abound, but on the impact of Trump's endorsement: Cornyn largely ran ahead of his VBM R1 share, but ran behind his EV and EDay R1 %s Makes sense that EV voters would be most sensitive to a Trump endorsement demographically as well

Cornyn is going to be the R senate candidate who received the most votes in a primary this year 💀 Runoff turnout fell off too much

It does kind of tickle me that a crux of the R attack on Talarico is that he wasn’t sufficiently respectful of their preferred pronouns for God

Cornyn was three votes away from being majority leader He voted against Trump’s impeachment and spent the past year groveling and trying to rename highways with Trump’s name, just for it to end like this

Continues the trend of the further right candidate benefitting massively from the runoff Hard to know exactly how much Trump’s endorsement moved things but it makes Paxton 3-0 in runoffs Even though they come from higher income/edu precincts, R runoff voters are insane lmao 🤪

On a scale of 1-10 it’s completely over

Election Day turnout in Texas started off horribly, but has picked up over the day Here’s Montgomery, where turnout will be like 95% in the R primary First hour was just 29% of March 3’s first hour, but 11-12 was >57% Has a lot of catching up to do still though

It’s now technically Election Day in Texas (again) Go vote today if you didn’t vote early!

Answer to this was interesting, Black women alone made up nearly 2/5th of the Dem electorate They were D+96.4 [98.2%D - 1.8%R] in two-party ballot selection

GA Primary turnout Demos 55.7% White [R+49.8] 31.7% Black [D+95.1] D voters: 58.6% Black, 26.4% white 41.8% under 50 63.3% female R Voters: 89% white, 1.7% Black 22.6% under 50 50% female

It would be extremely fitting for this admin if we just ended up with a worse version of the JCPOA and for Trump and his sycophants to seriously try to argue it’s the best deal ever made

PA 2-party reg among 18-24 year olds June 2024: D+12.6 June 2025: D+7.8 Feb 2026: D+8.9 Last week: D+10.2 Automatic voter registrations (mostly people turning 18, but also transplants) Sep 2023-Aug 2025 Rs: 88,456 Ds: 82,380 Since Aug 2025 Rs: 28,061 Ds: 34,132

One thing that Allred got right in 2024 was getting on the air to define himself much earlier than Cruz started airing attack ads It’s one the reasons he had a net positive favorability even when losing Talarico should do the same, like genuinely starting very soon

The way they interpret RCV polls has them too low on Alaska (but too high on Iowa and Texas) I still think the likeliest order of getting to 51 is NC > ME > AK > OH > TX > NE/IA Texas could theoretically overtake OH once we get confirmation that Paxton is the nominee and we get better h2h polling

And this isn't just speculation either! The data hub is currently missing election day votes from Laurens - it shows 210 but there were actually around 5.5k! Must have been missing like 50-100k votes all day imo

The way this was 10% of Georgia voters last night

docs.google.com/spreadsheets... the sheet is here if people want to explore themselves

There is some insane under/overvoting happening in Oregon right now (lots of votes to come in still, will be a while before we get final numbers) For Senate, vote totals are currently D: 369,127 R: 294,958 But for Gov? D: 349,207 R: 340,454 Ridiculous composition gap lol

Here’s what primary turnout looked like in the states that voted last night (AL/GA have open primaries and the other states have closed primaries) PA cracks me up a little, Rs just hate voting in midterms there

The combo of Ds being up 150k votes in the primary while the incumbent SC justices lead by two wildly different margins (2 and 18) really tells you just how far removed we, being extremely online, are from the way most people experience elections and voting

The year will be very blue, and that will help KLB for sure, but it's not ideal that she's underperforming her statewide total in Fulton and DeKalb, the two counties that contain Atlanta proper

Probably not good enough for Rankin out of Fulton

Ds also seem to be heading towards a huge turnout edge in PA though still some vote to come in

More evidence of how racialized voting took the place of partisanship is how Rankin did relatively very well on election day in Clayton, basically matching her overall margin, but much worse in other parts of Atlanta

Ds outvoting Rs without a single vote from Fulton is kind of insane

This is exactly why Georgia Rs are making all of Atlanta's local races nonpartisan, by the way (and they're probably going to try to find candidates with the most Black-sounding names possible too) GA Dems will need to lock in on voter education and candidate selection

Looks like Ds were using the names of candidates as a signal: there's an equally large ticket split happening there, with the D-aligned candidate named "Fatima" outperforming the D-aligned candidate named "Will" by 20% Ds went into the booth saying "hmm, which one *sounds* like a Dem?"

at this point it looks to me like Rankin will win and Jordan will lose, but what is this LMAO

Brantley is the second reddest county in the state, and is fully reporting Trump +82, and it's backing the incumbents by about 55% and 57% Just no polarization to be seen! We'll have to wait for Atlanta to see if Rankin wins (I think Jordan is too far behind in D areas)

Voters just showed up and started pressing buttons lmao

Early results for the SC races makes it seem like they're not going to neatly line up with partisanship at all D-aligned candidates doing better than Harris in rural areas but worse in Douglas (Atlanta metro) Also a big ticket split between the two races so far

Be careful when interpreting initial drops for the SC races in Georgia, bc we don't know the extent to which the races were successfully polarized, so results could be a bit funky We'll need to see both some of Atlanta and the rural parts of the state to be sure

At least 55k votes out of DeKalb, but the median update time is 40 minutes ago and some haven't updated in many hours, so prob closer to 60-65k votes rn

So true 🙂‍↕️

DeKalb’s eday wait time page had ~22.5k votes today around 30min ago, though that’s certainly an undercount since each location updates individually and inconsistently Earlier this morning, around 5k votes were broken down by party and they split roughly 87-13 Dem

One funny element to the Paxton endorsement is that Cornyn had a pretty strong day 1 of EV Left, the % of R1 IPEV cast on day 1 vs Cornyn’s % in R1 in Harris County Right: % of R1 IPEV cast day 1 vs Paxton’s net margin in Tarrant In both, Cornyn’s best pcts had higher turnout

Trump endorsing Paxton is prob gg for Cornyn, and we thank Trump for his contribution