Pithierly: You can get Frequentism from Bayesianism if you just assume your priors are 100% accurate.

It was kind of weird among other things that some people thought the NYC Mayor had a substantial hand in international relations with Israel, right? Like a lot of hay was made of that. That was weird. I'm correct that it was weird, right?

A nice feature of Bayesian probability is that credence of belief can map to a frequentist framework of hypothetical outcomes over infinite trials over time. If you have a fair 6-sided die and your priors match that, then your confidence of rolling a 1 will be 1/6 which matches the fair die P(1).

The Democrats should not trade their power for a promise to obey the law by a criminal president who habitually breaks it.

The sweetener is we'll rehire the people we illegally fired lmao I swear to God if anyone agrees to any of this you're a mark-ass mark

Ross Douchethat

I think it is a good thing, actually, when leadership talks like a real human being and says what we're all thinking.

The Woke Left wants you to wash your hands after you poop.

Every few months there’s a new omen that he’s on the brink. New slur in the speech, new bruise, new whisper from the West Wing. I keep pretending I’m above it all. I’m not. Please let this be the one.

The monastery resumes its chant: “Fascism is bad, but leftists are worse.” The high council convenes to determine whether trans people exist in ways focus groups approve of. At vespers they confess their sins: once, briefly, they entertained the thought that the poor might deserve better.

My childhood best friend's family, who refuses to get vaccinated because it's made of fetuses, do not think Leo and his predecessors were the true popes. As an atheist, I am not the Catholicism decider, but I don't think they should count as Catholics.

in this house, we believe in Shania Law. We play Man, I Feel Like a Woman every day.

Of course I'm worried about socialism. I mean, just imagine if Mamdani one day becomes President and nationalizes industry, imposes historic tax hikes, goes after the media, builds a secret national police force, militarizes the country, and sends people to camps.

Say what you will about Rudy Giuliani being a racist shitstain with a brain made of leftover dial-up noise.

just started having recency bias and i love it. easily the best bias

New shrinkflation conspiracy- the contact lens cleaner catalyst is worse quality over time. Not even finished with my solution bottle and I just stuck a coat of hydrogen peroxide straight onto my pupil.

Also, rudimentary math is deeply for recreation! Even as someone working with spatiotemporal microscopy data, I never applied the Pythagorean Theorem more frequently than when playing D&D and checking to see if an enemy was within my spell's range. +sports stats, game design, so on and so forth!

This 2012 xkcd comic has never left me. Bizarre that, among most primary education subjects, math is treated as the exemplar for "I'll never use this in real life". Other than, say, English/grammar, it's the *most* daily used skill! Never have I had to know the year of the Magna Carta signing!

I think I can "yes-and" and make even bolder, speculative claims. Boredom is good for all of us, and we are all worse off from being in a blinking casino of content and news, instead of sitting with our thoughts to merely speculate about stuff.

Dick Cheney and Charlie Kirk clapping cheeks together down in Hell.

Pleased to announce a new milestone. As of today, I will be working on reincarnating into a lotus flower!

Earle-Sears ran what felt like 12 billion ads about how much she hated trans kids and I didn’t hear a single pundit say she should stick to real issues that affect real people.

Getting the reviews of your manuscript back

One of my unsupported hot takes is that the loneliness crisis is caused in part by people not being bored enough. In most of my classes the students all stare at their phones until class begins. We’ve lost the precious boredom of eventually actually being bored enough to engage with others.

There is an unambiguous mandate from the people, the masses have spoken their verdict. The politburo will be formed. The contradictions of capital will be resolved. The mayoralty now belongs to the vanguard of the working class.

This is the takeaway from last night. I want this skeet printed out and nailed to every columnist's desk. Easy to overstate the significance of a Democratic Socialist's win in deep blue NYC, but all the wins elsewhere paint a picture that refutes the reactionary center coldly.

There are no natural laws in politics besides the one where good organizing gets it done

The White House has been cheugified. Somewhere, an aide is spray-painting "Bless This Mess" over the Resolute Desk. Another is scouring Bed Bath and Beyond for a "Wine Therapy" throw rug.

“Instead of asking them for money every week, ask them what they would like you to do.”

Dem message for next year’s midterms

if someone wants to give me couple hundred mill my two plans to solve this are attacking the rageslop from both ends: funding actual local media at a loss, and also creating apolitical slop that contests the mindshare of libs of TikTok.

Tonight's even more proof the mainstream reporters who are still on Twitter are suffering from a brain problem akin Havana Syndrome that is preventing them from accurately doing their jobs. They are being cooked alive by a snuff-focused apartheid algorithm.

And the defining feature of White Christian Nationalism — which is now just about completely intertwined with Trumpism — is that any exercise of political power by those who aren't part of the "elect" is inherently illegitimate and should face violent reprisal.

What will be your job in the New York Commune? I'm trying to choose between civil engineer and poet

The contradictions of bourgeois governance will be resolved one zoning reform at a time.

What channel we tuning into 🤨

Politicians should probably get on Bluesky to get better in touch with the American electorate.

if democrats are serious about winning they need to learn from tonight and convert to islam

everybody gets twenty-four hours to lib out with impunity, tonight is the cringe purge

There is an unambiguous mandate from the people, the masses have spoken their verdict. The politburo will be formed. The contradictions of capital will be resolved. The mayoralty now belongs to the vanguard of the working class.

Whatever polling you want to look at, there's extremely minimal evidence that anti-trans campaigns move the needle when Donald Trump is not on the ballot.

Transphobia’s a losing issue. Most Americans aren’t woke SJW activists, but the median American is live-and-let-live and maybe bullying is a turn off? Politics columnists miss this because they start from “everyone feels like I do” and stop thinking there.

The failure of the “blue no matter who” crowd to rally behind Mamdani really just lays the reality of that position bare, doesn’t it?

VP Cheney will be honoured with a 21 gun salute accidentally aimed directly at 21 of his friends

Robots don't need to look like people. It's ridiculous to want them to look and act like people. Anyone who is excited about humanoid robots is just someone who wishes they could own slaves, tbh.

Today is voting day, and as a hack, you can duplicate your ballot up to 5 times by giving them to pokemon in your party, depositing them in your PC, switching boxes, and soft resetting when it pauses to save. You can vote multiple times with this method!

Online chess is a great game for if you think your feelings of self-worth and intelligence are too high