My latest, in which I was cringe and went Gen Z: China’s strategy? Let Trump cook. "I am not sure if any other incumbent power in history has so rapidly and systematically attacked its own principal sources of competitive advantage,” Ali Wyne @crisisgroup.org told me. Free link: wapo.st/4m1fxNw

‘Prospects for de-escalation are complicated by a messy feud between #Cambodia and #Thailand’s former prime ministers.’ Our expert tracks the sudden escalation in fighting after months of plummeting relations between the two states. www.crisisgroup.org/asia/south-e...

Israel is starving Gaza, tipping the strip from mass starvation towards mass death. The lack of a ceasefire provides no excuse for this policy. War is no licence to starve. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

On @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I join Richard Atwood to talk Ukraine's negotiations with Americans, American negotiations with Russians, European leverage, & all the rest of it.

The first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term in the White House will go down in history. His administration has attacked its first three-plus months in office with such a ferocious commitment to rewiring the status quo.  www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Check out @CrisisGroup’s region by region breakdown of how Trump’s first 100 days were seen around the world … www.crisisgroup.org/global-unite...

Given SignalGate 2.0, reposting our @crisisgroup.org report on how the US came to be fighting the Houthis—without congressional authorization. Based on my recent conversations with US officials, seems Trump admin is using the same legal arguments as Biden team. www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

If there's one point of consistency on Ukraine between the Biden & Trump administrations, it's the rejection of US security guarantees for Kyiv. New @crisisgroup.org statement argues Ukraine and its European backers should accept this reality & ensure Kyiv can defend itself, now and into the future.

In @justsecurity.org ahead of #IWD2025 I highlight how the Mexico City policy (also known as the global gag rule) impacts women & girls in conflict even beyond the damage done by recent aid cuts. Past experience shows that this restriction reduces access to essential health care.

What’s that you said?!? Bust up, shakedown, divorce? 🤔 🎧 to @richardatwood.bsky.social @olyaoliker.bsky.social @stevepomper.bsky.social on a stunning showdown in transatlantic relations & Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at Munich. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

🎧 NEW EPISODE | Hold Your Fire! This week, Richard Atwood is joined by @olyaoliker.bsky.social and @stevepomper.bsky.social to discuss recent talks between the U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

After yet another tumultuous week, @stevepomper.bsky.social & I talked to Richard Atwood about what Washington's radical new approach to Ukraine & Europe more broadly might mean for the Russo-Ukrainian war & continental security on the @crisisgroup.org Hold Your Fire podcast.

Much talk these days about Ukraine cease-fire, what sorts of deals Trump can make with Putin over everyone's heads, what is & isn't on the table, including peacekeepers, & what Ukraine's European backers should do. A lot of this talk seems a bit muddled? Lotta carts before horses? Hence, a 🧵 1/14

With war in Ukraine raging on & Donald Trump’s second term as president offering multiple surprises daily, our new @CrisisGroup report on the future of European security predicts a continuing bumpy ride, explains why, & offers some thoughts on how, perhaps to smooth it. Somewhat. A 🧵 1/19

For all the question marks surrounding the Gaza deal, the opportunity it presents is too important to let go. The parties that threw their weight behind getting it done now need to turn their attention to making it stick, for the sake of Israelis & Palestinians. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

We @crisisgroup.org have just published our view on the strengths and weaknesses of the Gaza ceasefire deal in a Q&A format. Take a gander. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Our assessments of the Gaza ceasefire. A limited deal is of course welcome as a first step, but for the deal to match expectations many important details will need to be agreed upon, and will likely require outside engagement, encouragement, and pressure. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Confirmation hearing for #SecretaryOfState nominee Sen. Marco Rubio before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is set for Wednesday at 10 am US ET Top experts suggest questions that Senators (and journalists) should ask: www.justsecurity.org/106317/quest...

Thanks to @justsecurity.org for including questions from me and @crisisgroup.org colleague @bcfinucane.bsky.social in this list for Sen. Marco Rubio's #SecretaryofState confirmation hearing.

NEW COMMENTARY | @crisisgroup.org’s 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025 In collaboration w/ @foreignpolicy.com 📌 Read more: www.crisisgroup.org/global/10-co...

New from @crisisgroup.org: A round-up of regional and international responses to events in Syria, including a few paras on the view from the UNSC. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Big news in the sanctions world. Today, the UNSC indefinitely extended the humanitarian carveout of the Al Qaeda/ISIL sanctions regime. What does this mean, & why is it so important? A quick 🧵.

From last week, my essay on U.S.-Egypt relations, which are broadly improved on a host of pressing diplomatic matters despite the war in Gaza. Cooperation welcome, but shouldn't obscure continuing political and economic deficiencies of Egypt's governing model. www.foreignaffairs.com/egypt/does-a...

A standoff between President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales has plunged Bolivia into turmoil, aggravating economic grievances and fuelling social unrest. 🧵 to explain what’s happening

🔴 LIVE NOW | Lebanon-Israel ceasefire: What's at stake? youtube.com/live/xXVIudm...

NEW STATEMENT | Georgia’s Ruling Party Should Call Off Its Crackdown on Dissent Georgia’s decision to suspend its bid to join the EU has sparked nationwide protests. Tbilisi must end its crackdown and engage with the opposition to chart a path forward. www.crisisgroup.org/europe-centr...

@crisisgroup.org @mairavz.bsky.social & her colleagues on the chances that the parties will honour the ceasefire including the possibility that Hizbollah and Israel will seek to work out new “rules of the game” under which low-intensity exchanges of fire persist. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

NEW REPORT | Managing Tensions between Algeria and Morocco Since 2021, Algeria and Morocco have been embroiled in a diplomatic crisis, with incidents in Western Sahara and Rabat’s relations with Israel heightening the risk of confrontation. www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Algeria & Morocco have been embroiled in diplomatic crises since 2021. Mutual self-restraint & U.S. pressure help contain tensions, but there’s escalatory pressure too: bilateral arms race, surge of youth militancy in Western Sahara’s pro-independence Polisario Front & change in DC. bit.ly/4g9VOYV

"We are in the middle of a very violent decade." @comfortero.bsky.social in @economist.com. www.economist.com/the-world-ah...

If you'd like to follow my @crisisgroup.org colleagues here on BlueSky, here's a lovely starter pack prepared by @paulfranz.bsky.social

"New Israeli legislation, if fully enforced, would prevent the UN Relief and Works Agency from serving Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories. Such a de facto ban would be disastrous." An #UNRWA explainer @crisisgroup.org: h/t @stevepomper.bsky.social www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

From @crisisgroup.org: www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

All in one: A Starter Pack of all the experts on our Board of Editors who've now joined Bluesky! #FollowFriday go.bsky.app/JsUapJR