New from me: www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

1/18 The U.S. Trade Representative has initiated public consultations ahead of the mandatory USMCA review on July 1, 2026. This review will determine whether the US, Mexico, and Canada extend the agreement for another 16 years. public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2025-18010.pdf

Seoul eyes CPTPP to bolster economic cooperation with Japan: PM https://asia.nikkei.com/editor-s-picks/interview/seoul-eyes-cptpp-to-bolster-economic-cooperation-with-japan-pm

BREAKING: The Supreme Court is granting an unusually quick hearing on whether President Donald Trump has the power under federal law to impose sweeping tariffs.

Interesting color in the administration's motion to SCOTUS to expedite the tariffs case from Treasury Sec. Bessent, who says the appeals court ruling on Friday against Trump's tariffs is already impacting trade talks: "World leaders are ... walking away from or delaying negotiations," he says.

Ouf www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

The perils of using illegal tariffs to make "trade deals": "US Trading Partners ‘Dazed and Confused’ After Tariff Court Loss" Oh well! www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Early in my career, I got into an argument with a senior political scientist and a senior economist at a panel as they both tried to dismiss my public opinion research with the claim that public opinion about tariffs doesn’t actually matter for trade policy. Not sure why I was just reminded of that.

Today in confusing tariff policy: Trump posted that he was going to investigate furniture tariffs. A WH official told me “the Commerce Department has initiated a Section 232 investigation into furniture imports.” But WH has clarified to me that it’s in fact not a new investigation but… 1/

RIP, External Revenue Service: "Trump tariff agency plan stalls amid White House turf battle" www.politico.com/news/2025/08... "Importers have received no guidance and some companies aren’t even tracking [the service] anymore"

What my kids school assignment (and Bayesian logic) teaches us about Trump's trade deals. www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Trade policy must always cope with inconsistency and unintended consequences, but Trumpian trade policy is an extreme outlier. I’ve never seen so many inconsistencies amid a profound lack of clear objectives. A negotiator’s nightmare.

The job market weakened sharply during the late spring and early summer as Trump's tariffs began to take effect. Trump responded by calling for the firing of a key labor statistician.

"The Looming Legal Risk Facing Trump’s Tariffs: Inside the room with the judges who will decide their future" Good piece on yesterday's IEEPA tariff hearing (make sure to read the interesting footnote at end!)

Here's what Trump's new tariff hikes look like—another 5% on major allies like the EU, Japan, & South Korea. Another 10% on large trading partners like India, Vietnam, & Canada. Some rather insane choices like 39% tariffs on Switzerland, 41% on Syria, and of course 50% on Brazil.

Ever since Trump on April 2 announced the biggest tariff increase in modern history he’s insisted there’s no exclusions available. The thing is Trump has granted exclusions to imports worth more than $1 trillion, as we reveal in this @bloomberg.com Big Take: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

Understandably, the focus of the analysis of Trump's tariffs/trade policy has been on the impact on imports into the U.S., but the Trump administration is also pushing for better access to foreign markets. In my latest blog post, I suggest this is another metric by which to judge his trade policy.

"Why I Signed the Economists’ Amicus Brief Challenging Trump’s Emergency Tariffs" www.cato.org/blog/why-i-s...

"There are concerns that the United States may be 'moving the goalposts' by imposing new tariffs after agreements on the threatened ones have already been reached," writes the CSIS Economics Program and Scholl Chair in International Business. Read here: www.csis.org/analysis/sec...

Big q on Trump Russia statements is not just whether he feels ok re oil market impact but if he is ready to countenance financial sanctions (primary +secondary) or if he is still focused on less credible secondary tariffs. working w europeans on enforcement could be more impact.

Some thoughts about the Eu-US framework and where we are in the trade war. Tldr: tariffs are up significantly since January, meaning US costs too, many questions remain including on Eu market access for ag products. USG will view approach as success rziemba.substack.com/p/new-phase-...

I would like to submit a request that there be no more trade deal press conferences until a trade deal is actually done. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

The EU-US trade deal is here - it's probably not the end of uncertainty as the details are ironed out, but it's a momentous deal. In sum, it's a political defeat for the EU, but in economic terms I see it as, under the circumstances, a win of sorts. 🧵

Deal reached #EU #US #tarrifs 🇪🇺🇺🇸My first assessment:not satisfactory.This is a lopsided deal.Concessions have clearly been made that are difficult to accept. Deal with significant imbalance. Furthermore lot of questions still open.E.g. Standstillclause? More concrete numbers?

Library of Congress

Took a break from Epstein coverage to go for a walk in downtown DC. These pix are from the outside of the DOJ building. The irony of America breaks my heart sometimes.

Australia to allow NAFTA beef: "Since 2019 Australia has allowed US beef into the country but had concerns about cattle born in Mexico and Canada that was slaughtered in America, resulting in no beef coming from the US to Australia because supply chains are largely integrated between the countries"

Will all the digital firms that have been proactively collecting the cost of the DST from their customers for months now in anticipation of today’s remittance now be refunding these extra inflationary charges?

how times have changed. G7 Kananaskis chair's summary comments on trade and climate change, 2002 1/4

IYKYK: www.cbc.ca/newsinteract...

Marc Garneau's passing sent me back to a more personal interview I did with him for this story I wrote over a decade ago. Turned out to be a treat to re-read in retrospect for all sorts of reasons... so re-upping in case you want to join me on memory lane: www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

To everyone chattering about how Canada should or could join the EU, I would like to put a basic question: If these allies/trade partners can't even finish ratifying CETA, how the h-e-hockey sticks can we even contemplate a political conversation on membership? Perhaps bandwidth should refocus.

The way my Lenten Rose is just bursting… so satisfying

ICYMI yesterday - link to listen in this story: www.cbc.ca/news/politic...

Personal plug! I've had a side project on the go while also covering daily (election! trade!) news for the last few months. I'm hopeful it lands at a poignant moment as we're all thinking carefully about disinformation. Airing on CBC Radio One at noon... or listen here: www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

If you're near your radio tomorrow, I hope you'll tune in: www.cbc.ca/programguide... (And if you aren't: this special feature is also a podcast... URL to follow) @CBCWorldReport @CBCTheHouse

The new critical minerals Section 232 investigation will also cover "derivative products — the manufactured goods incorporating them." That could make this a pretty big deal.

I feel compelled to point out -- no laughing please! -- that Congress could put a stop to this tariff nonsense.

I'm starting to look into the additional information 3rd country suppliers of derivative steel products will need to provide. It's a bit too soon to know how exactly all this is working in practice but the 25% tariffs are one thing - the paperwork is also a pain

Something I hadn't realized until going through the trade data recently is that Mexico has surpassed China to become the #1 source of US computer imports. Imports of computers are close to passing cars to become the #1 Mexican import, which is insane if you know the size of the Mexican auto industry

Also, weaponizing uncertainty doesn’t really work well in foreign policy. foreignpolicy.com/2025/01/07/m...

If Trump's tariffs on Canadian/Mexican imports continue (along with the Canadian/Mexican retaliation), the idea of a North American tariff-free area is dead, but a "zombie USMCA" with various types of litigation might keep going (the lawyers always win!).

As #Canada is being hit by US tariffs, China decides now to retaliate for import tariffs last October of 100% on EVs and 25% on steel and aluminum. 100% on canola oil and meal/cakes hurts but no action on seed unlike in 2019 when Huawei's Meng Wanzhou was arrested. www.producer.com/markets/chin...

There it is: There was no point in filling out the paperwork to claim USMCA origin for potash or energy, because the MFN rate was 0% or 0.1%. (And similar thinking applied to most other goods.) But now “legal challenges and headaches are ahead” — what Trumpism means for business, in a nutshell.

This. Think about it for a minute.

They're really putting the FFS into tariffs is what they're doing

And... that was fast. White House clarifying by email for my colleague that actually, this isn't just an exemption for the Big 3. It's an exemption for all automotive production that qualifies under USMCA. Sloppy rhetoric or deliberately misleading? Who knows.

Where to begin? Let's start with the fact that notwithstanding what the WH spox said, there's no such thing as a manufacturer associated with USMCA. There are no company names in the treaty. The treaty is about the jurisdictions where materials/parts/vehicles originate, & their labour standards. 1/