A little skeptical about some of the more positive commentary on the 0.3% rise in GDP over November. Around half was driven by a rebound in car production, following the cyber attack on JLR... (1/3)

Spring Statement will take place on 3rd March 2026. I've never known a UK fiscal event to not be on a Wednesday... www.gov.uk/government/n...

It's been a tough year for businesses. Continued uncertainty, growing cost pressures, and cautious spending behaviour have been persistent headwinds to growth. Check out the main messages from our final set of business surveys for 2025 👇:

“Today’s rate cut came as no surprise… But the Committee remains deeply divided on the degree of inflation persistence in the economy, as the narrow vote showed” Check out @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social's response to the announcement 👇 www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

The uptick in manufacturers' price expectations in our latest survey is notable, and chimes with other indicators of pipeline price pressures edging up (incl. input price inflation in Nov) Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026 Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.

Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief: · Key takeaways from the OBR forecast · The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

That was a pretty dovish hold by the Monetary Policy Committee, with Andrew Bailey (the deciding vote) particularly more sanguine on upside inflation risks. December rate cut definitely back on the table. www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-pol...

Some good news for the UK economy: inflation has likely peaked and the labour market shows signs of stabilising. In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores what this means for monetary policy and the wider economic outlook. Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Thrilled to join the first episode of The CBI Exchange - our brand new podcast! Tune in as we unpack the state of the economy ahead of the Budget, speculate on what we might expect from the Chancellor, and outline what business needs to thrive audioboom.com/posts/880055...

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO PERSIST INTO 2026 Firms once again expect activity to fall over the next three months, with weakness across the board mirroring subdued GDP growth.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to October, at a similar pace to the quarter to September. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to January.

Really pleased to be able to host Jon Hall of the Bank of England's FPC this week, for his upcoming speech on the balance between financial stability and long-term economic growth. Link to register below 👇

With weak underlying economic momentum and sticky #inflation, the #MPC is set to tread cautiously. In our September’s Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social explores the Bank Rate decision, UK outlook and jittery bond markets. Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

A little overshadowed by the GDP data this morning, but worth noting that households' inflation expectations have crept up again in the latest BoE Inflation Attitudes Survey. Hhs now expect the CPI rate to be 3.4% in two years time, the highest such expectation since end-2022

The last week saw a rise in bond yields across advanced economies, reflecting concern in markets about the state of public finances across the G7 Why did yields spike, and why have they remained higher in the UK than elsewhere? Check out our latest note: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/unp...

📈 I've been critical of the ONS in the past, but this is a refreshingly honest account of how they've started to fix issues with retail sales in the past few weeks. Let's hope they can adopt this approach across other published statistics: blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/09/05/c...

Sticky inflation vs a cooling labour market — a tough trade-off for the MPC. In our latest Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks: · Why the MPC is so divided · Mixed signals on UK growth · What’s next for private sector activity Read more: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

This week is the #NobelPrize meeting 🎓 Since the Economics prize was introduced in 1969, over half of all laureates have been US–born. Last year’s laureates: Daron Acemoglu 🇹🇷, James Robinson 🇺🇸🇬🇧 & Simon Johnson 🇬🇧, won for their research on institutions, growth & inequality. #ChartOfTheDay

A characteristically hawkish speech from Catherine Mann, mostly focusing on the dangers of inflation persistence. But she leaves the door open to voting for "forceful policy action" if downside risks to growth materialise: www.bankofengland.co.uk/speech/2025/...

Our latest #manufacturing survey continues to paint an un-pretty picture of activity, chiming with the weakness in this morning's flash manufacturing PMI. More below 👇

To note that the ONS' 2025 Blue Book GDP estimates show a much stronger picture for business investment, largely due to higher R&D spending Capex now estimated to have consistently recovered its COVID decline in Q3 2021 - two years earlier than in the current vintage of data

Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.

Weak growth, stubborn inflation The Bank of England faces a tough trade-off, with cautious rate cuts amid a loosening jobs market. Wage pressures are easing slowly, but risks remain. This month's Economy in Brief from @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social breaks it down: t.co/0RouuL0j4W 🔒

Good chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how long the BoE's latest easing cycle has been. Assuming a few more rate cuts, it's set to be the longest in post-war history.

Today marks a milestone! 🎉 The CBI is proud to celebrate 60 years of championing business growth, driving change, and influencing policy. Find out more about becoming a member: orlo.uk/Lu9zw Here’s to the next 60 years! 💼 #CBI60 #VoiceOfBusiness #BusinessGrowth

Growth momentum remained weak going into Q3, according to our latest surveys. Continued headwinds from higher employment costs, energy prices and global volatility. Businesses cite a growing focus on managing costs and streamlining processes Read our full take below 👇

Little movement in the UK GfK consumer #confidence index this month, BUT - the "now is a good time to save index" jumped by 7 points, to its highest since late 2007. Further illustrates continued caution among households, and focus on rebuilding finances after a tough few years.

"Economics today resembles Catholic theology in medieval Europe: a rigid doctrine guarded by a modern priesthood who claim to possess the sole truth" Great piece by Ha-Joon Chang, referencing the ongoing work of @rethinkecon.bsky.social www.ft.com/content/9aab...

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes were broadly unchanged in the quarter to July. Firms expect volumes to fall slightly in the three months to October. #ITS

Great chart from Deutsche Bank, showing just how divided the Bank of England's MPC are at the moment. And split views seem to be picking up, as the labour market loosens. Though divisions within the Committee aren't necessarily a bad thing, of course.

London waking up this morning #heatwave2025

How much does the UK spend on welfare? 🇪🇺 Relatively little compared to Europe: just 10.8% of GDP in 2023 (including sickness & disability benefits, pensions, etc.). Meanwhile, 🇫🇮Finland spends 25.7% of GDP & 🇫🇷France 23.8%. #ChartOfTheDay #Welfare

Business surveys - including our own - were always pointing to weaker momentum than official data over Q1. This looks to have continued over Q2 and, taken at face value, suggests that we'll see a sharp slowdown in GDP growth. More below 👇

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that #manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the next three months

Great chart from Goldman Sachs showing the key markets for Iran's oil exports. This is one reason why a full-blown closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a low-likelihood scenario: Iran wouldn't want to impact its top customer (i.e. China) #IranIsraelConflict

🚨 New UK economic forecast is out! 🚨 We project that the UK will see modest GDP growth of 1.2% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026. The economy is facing stiff domestic & international headwinds that will weigh on activity. Here’s what you need to know 👇🧵 #UKeconomy #Econsky #Econ

Of course, the most important release this is week is our own economic forecast on Wednesday - which will outline our view of the UK economic outlook over the next couple of years, amid continued domestic headwinds and increasing geopolitical volatility

Households' near-term inflation expectations nudged down a touch in Q2, according to the Bank of England's latest Inflation Attitudes Survey. But at 3.2%, they remain well above the 2% inflation target, so will likely remain a concern for the MPC.

One of many excellent charts in @theifs.bsky.social's Spending Review briefing this morning (which is well worth watching back) #SpendingReview

On the 0.3% fall in GDP over April: worth noting that business surveys (including our own) have been pointing to weaker activity than official data for some time now. The latest outturn may be be the start of that divergence narrowing, but...

How ambitious is the Government’s newly announced affordable homes programme? It is significantly bigger than recent funding packages, and almost as big (in annual terms) as the programme delivered by the last Labour government ⤵️

Errors in the Vehicle Excise Duty data mean that CPI inflation was 0.1pp higher in April than it should have been. Doesn't change the big picture, but tempers some of the upside surprise in inflation over the month (when inflation came in at 3.5%) www.ons.gov.uk/news/stateme...

Congratulations to the government on its #UKEUReset showing that it’s serious about #growth and backing business. Firms across the UK will welcome commitments on regulatory cooperation, defence, net zero and trade with Northern Ireland. Full response: bit.ly/3H3rm6M 👇

Today’s EU-UK summit is a key moment for the government’s EU 'reset' plans. But looking beyond a big row about fish...what's been announced today won't shift the dial on growth. Below is a thread on why that's the case and where the relationship could usefully head next...

I was surprised to see in today's ONS figures that UK goods exports suddenly rose 3.5% in Q1/25. Then I found this was almost entirely driven by a surge in UK aluminium exports to the US ahead of Trump's tariffs. This alone pushed UK GDP growth by ~0.2 ppts (out of 0.7 ppts total in Q1). Amazing.

We have arrived!

Not the most important thing that happened today, but: feels like the MPC were dovish in their forecasts, but not so much in their rhetoric/vote-split. Really underscores lingering concern over inflation persistence, probably caused by something which isn't easy to quantify #bankofengland

Our latest #manufacturing survey doesn’t exactly paint a picture of strength – output flat, cost pressures strong and hiring falling. Also early signs of tariff-related concerns seeping in – big spike in worries over pol-econ conditions abroad, and weakening competitiveness in non-EU markets.

Some good detective work by Louis Ashworth on which late return may have caused the ONS to open up the average weekly earnings data to revisions (or at least more revisions than usual): www.ft.com/content/e418...