UK wage growth cools further as unemployment rises ft.trib.al/rDxi4eT

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

UK GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in Q4 2025, underperforming consensus estimates of 0.2%. These figures confirm a slowdown in the second half of 2025 (0.7% in Q1, 0.3% in Q2, and 0.1% in Q3).

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

The Bank of England’s MPC voted 5-4 to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%. The majority bloc preferred to keep rates on hold as they wait to see how lower inflation this year will pass through to wage and price-setting.

Successive geopolitical shocks dominated the start of 2026. In the latest CBI Economy in Brief, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks market reactions, what global volatility means for the UK, and a pulse check on the UK growth story. 🔒 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

Economic momentum has slowed, hiring plans remain subdued, and business confidence has fallen. 📉 Our January 2026 Economic Deep Dive helps business leaders make sense of the key trends in the UK economy at the beginning of 2026. Exclusive to CBI members🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/cbi...

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR ACTIVITY TO REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE INTO THE SPRING The CBI’s latest surveys report that firms anticipate further falls in activity over the coming months, as demand remains subdued. Nonetheless, growth expectations were at their least negative in three months.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

#Retail sales volumes recovered in December, by 0.4% (from -0.1% in November). But despite December’s boost, underlying momentum was weaker, with sales volumes declining by 0.3% over Q4 2025 as a whole.

#Retail sales volumes continued to fall in the year to January, though at a notably slower rate than in December, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers anticipate the sales downturn to regain pace in February.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that output volumes fell in the quarter to January. Firms expect volumes to fall again in the three months to April, though at a more moderate pace.

UK #CPI inflation rose slightly in December 2025, to 3.4% (from 3.2% in November), broadly in line with expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) held steady at 3.2%.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

UK GDP rose 0.1% in the three months to November, outperforming consensus expectations, as a monthly rise of 0.3% in November followed on from no growth in October and a revised 0.1% rise in September. The data nonetheless confirm a marked slowdown in the second half of 2025.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

The UK FS sector saw a gloomy end to 2025, with business volumes falling sharply. Activity is set to pick up in Q1 2026, though. Check out the key takeaways from the latest CBI FSS 🧵👇

Business volumes in the financial services sector continued to fall at a rapid pace in the final quarter of 2025. However, firms expect that volumes growth will recover moderately over Q1 2026, according to the latest CBI Financial Services Survey.

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO CONTINUE INTO Q1 2026 The CBI’s latest surveys suggest that firms expect activity to fall again in the first quarter of 2026, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024.

Retailers reported that annual sales volumes fell rapidly in December, as weak consumer confidence contributed to softer trading conditions in the lead-up to Christmas. Check out the results of our latest Distributive Trades Survey 👇

The latest CBI DTS reported a sharp fall in annual #retail sales volumes in December. Sales are set to fall at a faster pace in January – the weakest expectations since March 2021. This points to ongoing poor trading conditions following November’s fall in retail sales, per ONS.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to reduce Bank Rate to 3.75%. Today’s reduction was in line with our recent economic forecast, which expects rates to settle at 3.5% early next year.

The uptick in manufacturers' price expectations in our latest survey is notable, and chimes with other indicators of pipeline price pressures edging up (incl. input price inflation in Nov) Time will tell whether this is signal or noise, but one to bear in mind ahead of tomorrow's (likely) rate cut

Check out my response to today’s UK inflation data, which showed a larger-than-expected slowdown to 3.2% in November 👇

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey shows manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to December, though at a slower pace than in November. Firms expect output to decline again over the next three months.

UK #CPI inflation slowed by more than expected in November, to 3.2% (from 3.6% in October), and is now at its lowest in eight months. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) also eased further, to 3.2% (from 3.4% in October)

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

UK GDP fell 0.1% in the three months to October, undershooting consensus expectations, as two consecutive monthly declines in September and October (of -0.1%) offset growth of 0.2% in August. This leaves GDP 1.1% higher than in October 2024, a marked slowdown compared with earlier in the year.

📢 NEW: CBI UK Economic Forecast 📢 We project UK #GDP growth of 1.4% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026, and 1.5% in 2027. Moderate growth masks continued subdued momentum in household spending and business investment, while longer-term prospects remain constrained by weak productivity. 🧵👇

🎙️New episode of The CBI Exchange: Beyond the Budget. Tracy Black talks with Louise Hellem, Alpesh Paleja & Mo Jamei about what the Autumn Budget really means for UK growth – and what business is saying behind closed doors. Listen: orlo.uk/5bL4I #CBIExchange

The CBI’s latest economic forecast will be released this week, alongside other key UK economic data releases to keep on your radar.

Following Budget jitters that left businesses in a state of suspension, @alpeshpaleja.bsky.social unpacks in our extended Economy in Brief: · Key takeaways from the OBR forecast · The Budget’s implications for the economic outlook and monetary policy Read more🔒: www.cbi.org.uk/articles/eco...

📉 PRIVATE SECTOR DOWNTURN SET TO ACCELERATE TO FEBRUARY 2026 Firms expect activity to fall again over the next three months, extending a period of weakness that began in late 2024. Growth expectations worsened a little further, in large part driven by pre-Budget uncertainty.

Business sentiment and activity dropped further across the services sector in the quarter to November. For more detail on the latest survey, check out our press release 👇 www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/service-sector-conditions-deteriorate-in-the-quarter-to-november-cbi-service-sector-survey/

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

🚨Breaking news: The government has agreed to a six-month qualifying period for unfair dismissal in the Employment Rights Bill. Read the joint statement from the CBI and the other business groups involved in tripartite discussions: www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre...

The Chancellor has set sufficient headroom, now it's time to accelerate growth. ✅ Wins: skills, innovation, planning ⚠️ Risks: energy costs, employment costs, limited tax reform See the detail in the CBI #Budget2025 analysis ➡️ orlo.uk/EzWjD

Conditions in the UK retail and broader distribution sector remain gloomy, with sentiment and annual sales dropping in November. Households continue to be cautious, and Budget-related uncertainty is weighing on capex and hiring. Check out the key figures from the latest CBI DTS 👇

Retailers were hit by Budget worries in November, with sentiment about the business situation recording its steepest fall in 17 years – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey.

Here are the key UK economic data releases and events for this week

Retail sales volumes fell sharply in October, by 1.1%, marking the first fall since May 2025. Despite the monthly decline, underlying momentum was boosted by sales growth over the summer, with volumes rising by 1.1% over the three months to October.

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to November, the sharpest pace of decline since the three months to August 2020. Manufacturers expect output volumes to decline again in the next three months.

UK CPI inflation slowed to 3.6% in October, down from its 3.8% peak and in line with consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) eased further to 3.4% (from 3.5% in September)

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

UK GDP grew by 0.1% q/q in Q3 2025, underperforming consensus estimates of 0.2%. These figures mark a slowdown from the first half of 2025 (0.7% in Q1, and 0.3% in Q2).

A surprisingly bad set of labour market stats this morning. The story I was prepared for was "some weakening, but the shake out from the early part of the year is behind us". But it's worse than that - payroll jobs falling again, unemployment now up at 5%. Here is our PN

Here are the key UK economic data releases for this week

The BoE's MPC kept Bank Rate at 4% today, as it waits to see further disinflationary progress. The Bank's central forecast expects inflation to slow to 2% by H1 2027, based on market expectations that interest rates will fall to a terminal rate of 3.5% in H1 2026. 🧵👇