September marked the twelfth straight month of falling annual retail sales, according to our latest DTS. Weak demand conditions are weighing on sales, while US tariffs are adding pressure for some retailers. Check out the results of the survey 👇

Since last year’s Autumn Budget hiked labour costs, UK businesses have faced a tough balancing act. How are they responding? Read our latest blog 👉 www.cbi.org.uk/articles/the...

#Retail sales volumes rose by 0.5% m/m in August (from 0.5% in July), marking a third consecutive month of growth. Underlying momentum was more muted, however, with sales falling by 0.1% over the three months to August.

BoE MPC’s rate hold today was widely expected. A noteworthy nod to data dependency in the minutes, alongside unchanged forward guidance, suggests upcoming inflation and labour market data will be key to a possible Q4 cut

UK inflation remained elevated in August at 3.8%. Higher food and energy prices, alongside passthrough from increased labour costs, will continue putting upward pressure on prices in the near term

UK GDP was flat in July, in line with market expectations, after a robust 0.4% rise in June. GDP rose 0.2% in the three months to July, and is 1.4% higher than in July 2024, painting the picture of an economy that is growing, if only moderately.

#Retail sales volumes fell at a strong pace in the year to August – the eleventh month in a row of decline – according to the CBI’s latest quarterly Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect the pace of decline to ease in September.

UK #CPI inflation rose by 3.8% in the year to July (from 3.6% in June), slightly above consensus expectations. Core CPI inflation (excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) ticked up to 3.8% (from 3.7% in June)

GDP growth in Q2 (0.3% q/q) was slightly stronger than expected in our latest forecast (0.2%). Under the hood, though, growth was mostly driven government spending, while private demand was weak

One interesting nugget from today's MPC minutes is that there were two rounds of voting to reach a decision. From what I can gather, this is the first time the MPC has held two votes on interest rates since the BoE became independent - underlining just how finely balanced the decision to cut was

The BoE MPC voted to reduce rates to 4% today, in line with our latest forecast's expectations. The story of the Bank's projections was broadly unchanged from May, with GDP growth remaining subdued and inflation gradually returning to the 2% target after this year's bump 🧵 of key takeaways 👇

📉 Private sector firms expect activity to fall again through October. The latest CBI Growth Indicator shows continued weakness across the economy, extending a run of negative sentiment that began in late 2024

#Retail sales volumes fell strongly in the year to July, according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey. Retailers expect the ongoing downturn to extend into August.

UK #inflation picked up to 3.6% in June (from 3.4% in May), mostly reflecting fuel pump price base effects. Price pressures are expected to remain firm this year, due to higher household energy prices and the passthrough of increased labour costs

UK GDP contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive monthly decline after a 0.3% fall in April, though this follows a surprisingly strong first quarter. GDP grew by 0.5% in the three months to May.

Annual sales volumes fell at a fast pace in the retail and broader distribution sector, according to our latest DTS. Many firms continue to report that consumer caution is holding back sales Key takeaways from the survey 🧵👇

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that #manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the next three months

Our latest UK forecast has been released! Check out the below thread for the key takeaways from our projections for GDP, inflation, interest rates, and more

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that #manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to May, at the joint-steepest pace since August 2020. Looking ahead, manufacturers expect output to decline over the next three months

Inflation rose to 3.5% in April, driven by a perfect storm of price pressures such as the hike in the Ofgem price cap, higher employer NICs, and the National Living Wage increase. We expect that these factors will keep inflation elevated this year.

The UK economy made a strong start to the year, growing by 0.7% q/q in Q1 2025. Growth over the quarter was driven by business investment, net trade, and household spending

We have arrived!

UK #retail sales volumes fell more slowly in the year to April, according to the latest CBI DTS. Firms remain pessimistic about the outlook due to the impact of Autumn Budget measures, persistently weak consumer sentiment, and global economic uncertainty

UK #inflation coming down to 2.6% in March is welcome news, particularly ahead of a likely pick up in price pressures in April. Higher US tariffs add some uncertainty to the outlook, as they could put both upward and downward pressure on inflation in the UK

UK #GDP grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.5% in the month to February, which provides some hope that the economy may have seen a solid expansion over the first quarter

UK #inflation eased slightly to 2.8% in February (from 3.0% in January), broadly in line with the Bank of England's expectations. Looking ahead, price pressures are set to rise again in April, driven by higher energy costs, regulated price increases, and the passthrough of Autumn Budget measures

The latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey found that UK retail sales volumes dropped at a sharp pace in the year to March. Retail and wholesale firms reported that global trade tensions and the Autumn Budget are weighing on consumer and business confidence, which is leading to reduced demand

The Bank of England MPC kept rates unchanged at 4.5% in their latest meeting, in line with expectations. The MPC continued to emphasise a "gradual and careful approach" to lowering rates, which chimes with our forecast of quarterly 25bp cuts through Q1 2026 (to 3.5%)

The latest UK labour market data suggested that employment is broadly unchanged, while pay growth remains strong (at 6.1% in the private sector). Looking ahead, CBI business survey data continue to point to a deterioration in hiring intentions post-Budget

Household inflation expectations continue to tick up, according to latest Bank of England / Ipsos survey. These data are likely to reinforce the MPC's "gradual and careful" approach to lowering interest rates, in order to avoid a de-anchoring of expectations

UK #GDP contracted slightly in January (by -0.1% m/m), mostly driven by a decline in production sector output. Monthly GDP data has been relatively volatile lately, but, looking through the noise, economic momentum seems to be subdued

UK retail sales fell again in February, according to our latest Distributive Trades Survey. The outlook remains downbeat, with firms expecting annual sales to drop in March and investment intentions deteriorating to the greatest extent in nearly six years

UK CPI #inflation rose by a stronger-than-expected 3% in January, highlighting the challenges facing the BoE MPC as they seek to rein in persistent price pressures. We expect inflation to remain above target this year, partly reflecting the impact of Autumn Budget measures

UK GDP grew by 0.1% in Q4 2024, above consensus estimates of a 0.1% decline. Growth over the quarter was driven by government spending and investment, while private sector demand fell. Looking at 2024 as a whole, GDP increased by 0.9% (in line with our recent forecast)

Hello Bluesky community! I'm Martin Sartorius, Principal Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Here, I'll be sharing thoughts on UK macroeconomic trends and insights from our forecast and business surveys. Looking forward to engaging discussions!