🛍️ Spoke with BBC Radio London on the rise of pre-loved goods sales 👇🏽

🛍️ Fierce competition brings early Black Friday deals Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering November 2025.

Budget Day

A lot of you like to know which food and drink products you can expect to have paid more for. Here are the top 25 movers. Not good for pizza lovers 🍕

Signal from the output PPI is of persistence though. This suggests inflationary pressures for goods leaving the factory-gate (particularly cars, food and clothing) do remain.

CPI doesn't fall quite as much as was expected (3.6%, down from 3.8%), primarily down to a sharp monthly increase in food prices and a lesser increase in recreation and culture.

People in the UK: "Hold my coffee" *yoy = inflation since Labour took office (HT: @harvirdhillon.bsky.social)

Gosh, she's so soulless. Gaming with a corporate face, personified.

Shoppers' baskets were their heaviest since 2022, and strong retail sales performance over the past few months has manifested in resilient services performance, helping to buttress UK GDP.

How does that vary by region? Steepest falls in London, North West as well as the West Mids and South East.

Retail now seeing the steepest falls in payrolled employees, relative to a year ago.

🛍️📉 Consumers hold back for Black Friday The @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social retail sales measure rose 1.6% YoY in October, the slowest growth since May. Many shoppers delayed purchases, waiting for Black Friday deals and cooler weather before buying toys, electronics & clothing. 📊

GDP also looks a bit on the higher end. On these estimates, the UK would have grown 2%-2.2% pa between 2016 and 2024, instead of 1.2%.

Something I've spotted from having a closer look at the detailed retail sales figures is how much growth medical goods have seen over the past 6 months or so. It's the best performing category in volumes terms. A symptom of lower NHS provision?

Household consumption remains weak. Higher pay is being banked, and more is being saved for emergency funds.

🦃 There's been a long-term decline in the number of turkeys being slaughtered in the UK:

Full report is available here ⤵️

🛍️📉 Shop Price Inflation Slows in October Today we published the latest @the_brc – @NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering October 2025.

Good retail sales performance in the three months to September. Sales volumes rose 0.5% m-o-m which makes it four consecutive periods of monthly growth. Sales are now at their highest since July 2022.

It's now looking quite likely that UK inflation being higher compared to G7 nations was a bit of a policy-induced blip. CPI may even return to target by the middle of 2026.

Surprise drop in food prices means that the CPI remains unchanged at 3.8%. This is the first monthly decrease in food prices since May 2024.

Why are TVs getting cheaper? Mentioned here in the @thetimes.com

📉 Slight slowdown in retail spend as consumer caution ahead of the Autumn Budget predominates. Inflation continues to boost food sales in value terms however non-food remains subdued. Electricals still performing well, however.

Brits are buying a lot more electrical appliances (replacement cycle) as well as from e-commerce platforms. Independent food shops are also growing more than supermarkets, despite inflation.

Full report is available here ⤵️

🛍️📈 Highest shop price inflation in 18 months Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering September 2025.

Inflation largely unchanged, last month. Services inflation ticked down to 4.7%, but goods inflation reached its highest since October 2023.

Fiscal drag means that the state pension over 2025/26 is just under £100 away from being taxable.

The UK aggregate numbers are a bit hard to square with a declining number of payrolled employees (SA). In Aug we had ~127k fewer employees than a year ago... ~-130k if we look at the comparable June figure. The increase is also mainly coming from employee jobs, not self-employed.

Regular pay growth did ease off in the most recent period, but we're seeing the first acceleration (on 3-month average measure) in median earnings (PAYE dataset) since the start of the year.

So like VBA or openpyxl?

📈 Retail Prices Edge Higher in August Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering August 2025.

Food inflation is likely to head towards the 6% mark towards the end of the year and there were some interesting risers on the month: tea (4.2% mom), chocolate (3.4%), margarine (2.8%), whole milk (2.7%), yoghurt (2.5%) and of course beef (2.4%).

Breaking it down by retail category of good, it's food that is showing alarming signs of accelerating (now at 4.9%). However, clothing & footwear as well as furniture did step back somewhat, in keeping with seasonal patterns.

📈 Tick up in inflation continues, and goods inflation is now its highest since October 2023. Services inflation back up to 5%... ~4.2% inflation in September likely

Slightly worrying that the publication of the ONS' retail sales statistics has been delayed with such little notice.

Since the October Budget, the fastest fall in the number of payrolled employees has taken place in London.

The full report with a detailed category breakdown is accessible here ⤵

Not a great deal has changed in the HMRC payrolled employee figures, though there have been some upward revisions. Have lost ~164,000 employees since July 2024.

Wage growth in the UK is moderating somewhat but heightening inflation will force it to become stickier. Basically it hovers at ~4-5% throughout 2026.

🛍️📈 Warm start cools in July retail sales @britishretail.bsky.social - @kpmguk.bsky.social UK retail sales rose 2.5% YoY in July, with early-month momentum cooling as the weather turned. Food led the way again, while non-food picked up modestly but faced patchy category performance.

Interesting that Clare Lombardelli says that food inflation in UK/EZ have broadly tracked. They have, but since April the gap has widened notably...hard to say that global commodity prices have affected the UK differently. (Hint: it's policy-driven)

BoE reckon food inflation will rise to 5.5% by year-end. I think we could even be looking at 6%+.

Full report is available here ⤵️

🛍️📈 Retail Prices Tick Higher in July Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social – NielsenIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering July 2025.

🛍️📈 Warm weather lifts June retail sales Retail sales rose 3.1% YoY in June, helped by soaring temperatures and early holiday prep. It’s the strongest June since 2021, but volumes remain under pressure as growth was again propped up by food inflation.

Are we set to see a bit of a repeat of GDP performance in 2024? The rollercoaster ride is heading downwards right now. 🎢

🛍️📈 Retail inflation positive for the first time in a year Today we published the latest @britishretail.bsky.social - NIQ Shop Price Monitor, covering June.

Real disposable income per head falls for the first time in over a year

Em-dashes, em-dashes everywhere