I worked closely with Hassett for about a year at the Fed in the 90s. As his TV persona suggests, he really was a nice guy in person. But his long descent into MAGA hackery has been pretty painful to watch. Hard to know if it's bank account boosting cynicism or he's just lost connection with reality

Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.

Seeing a journalist lose their mind on X, I remember when they misunderstood something to do with solvency/liquidity of banks a few years ago. Attempts to explain were dismissed as "mansplaining". Someone even recommeded my lecture notes! Certainty you're never wrong + social media leads to madness.

Judge says they do not tend to quash things on the basis of “mere technicalities” as he quashes a much needed 221 bed student accommodation building over a "defective newspaper notice" and not erecting a changed site notice because these impacted the right of this one guy to object to it.

Supporters of Ireland's planning system say it is wonderfully democratic. But here is a major project supported by repeated democratically-elected governments and put through a rigorous planning process (including plenty of public input) being stopped by 20 people. That's not democracy. It's chaos.

5 radical things to do about housing, none of which would get a single house built. Comical. www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

Ireland's VAT cut for hospitality business is a great example of how politics and lobbying triumphs over economics. Never something anyone considered before Covid, but once they saw it could be done, the restaurant sector fought like hell to get it brought back. www.irishtimes.com/politics/202...

Routine for every class now: - sign out previous person who used the system - sign in to AV system computer - verify sign-in with authenticator on phone - wait for phone face ID to recognize - wait for AV system computer to load - kill Microsoft Teams auto-launch - sign in to course system web page

"The appointment is expected to be well received internally at the IMF" Funny.

The real policy issue here is left to the final sentence. There is no monetary policy rationale to pay interest on all reserves to banks. Tiering works perfectly well. Whatever the rationale for their current approach is, it's not about the need to set short-term market rates appropriately.

So guys selling donuts & hotdogs outside a shopping centre is "prohibiting the making of a space dedicated to pedestrians and the general public” and stops it acting "as a distinct focal point" Planning-person brain on steroids. No wonder nothing ever gets done www.irishtimes.com/business/202...

1/Kevin Hassett had long ago discredited himself as a scholar by parroting claims about the economy he knew to be false. Even so, parroting the lie about rigged statistics, is a new low. The academy should ostracize him the same way a fabricator of research should be ostracized.

Jenkins’s relentless commitment to being the worst Guardian columnist of all time gets taken to new levels. Airs of “Sure Adolf might be a bit of a rum bloke but look at the lovely architecture…”

Ah, look, my university has decided to get a scary AI robot to tell me that doing research, admin and teaching preparation from home (which I've done forever) is apparently a "hybrid" arrangement that I need to fill out a form to get approval for. www.ucd.ie/hr/a-z/hybri...

Lately, I've been working on betting and prediction markets. Here's a working paper on this topic written with two UCD colleagues -- it is (AFAIK) the only systematic analysis of the prices on the Kalshi prediction market. We're still in pre-submission mode so comments\critiques welcome.

3 points on this. 1. Eurosystem made profits due to bond buying for years because there was generally a positive spread between the bond yields and the rate it paid on reserves (which was negative for years). You can't look at losses without factoring in profits. www.reuters.com/business/fin...

Exciting for Crystal Palace. I hear this guy is a great owner! www.bbc.com/sport/footba...

I continue to be glad I cancelled my @financialtimes.com subscription over their Trump\Musk coverage. Witness this heap of rubbish from Edward Luce. To summarise ... Nazis are bad so it's best if they win so they don't get violent when they don't. Really?

Incredible that it took a backbench rebellion to make this happen. Good for those who forced it but is this how they plan to govern for the next 4 years? Tory-in-disguise policies until rebellions get rid of them. Aren't they just better off to get rid of Starmer? It's not like he's popular.

Sorry @jenoconnell.bsky.social but how is not wanting to talk to people you don’t want to talk to a violation of free speech? Are people not free to choose who they speak to? Whose freedom are you defending? www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

New post: Starmer’s Disgraceful and Damaging Remarks mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/05/star... As with austerity in the 2010s, if none of the main parties can be honest about immigration then the public debate will be equally dishonest.

This stuff is hilarious. Ah yes bring the best and brightest to Irish universities! Meanwhile the same government makes it impossible to recruit people on proper permanent contracts due to an Employment Control Framework introduced 15 years ago. Meanwhile, funding per student is pitifully low.

At almost 30 years remove from living in Boston and not caring a jot about the NBA, my reaction to the news about the Celtics blowing two 20 point leads in a row in the playoffs to the Knicks was still a visceral oh my Jesus No.

REPORTER: But we're seeing as a result that ports here in the US, the traffic has really slowed and now thousands of dockworkers are truck drivers are worried about their jobs TRUMP: That means we lose less money ... when you say it slowed down, that's a good thing, not a bad thing

Is this bad? I'm no international shipping expert, but this sounds bad.

"It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet": Container ships from China fell by a third in April. By late May or early June, Americans may find less on the shelves. @anaswanson.bsky.social www.nytimes.com/2025/05/01/b...

Outlook is undeniably bleak. bsky.app/profile/sean...

BESSENT SAYS NOT WORRIED ABOUT EMPTY SHELVES BESSENT SAYS WE'LL SEE ELASTICITIES, WE'LL SEE REPLACEMENTS

This has a very pre-Covid feel about it. I remember telling my family the world was about to utterly change in late February 2020 and they thought I was mad. The consequences of almost no Chinese imports on US shelves or available as inputs to firms are likely to be enormous. And it's coming soon.

In which Dan gives up the fight against people saying banks "hold" capital. I would of course quibble that people (like most of my undergraduates ...) actually don't know it means and the "holding" thing encourages them to think precisely the wrong thing.

Very proud that my wife, Martina, has been appointed to be Director of the ESRI. My father, Chris, worked at the ESRI for almost all his career. He passed away in 2022 but I know he would have been incredibly proud as would my mother, Yvonne, who we lost in January. www.rte.ie/news/busines...

Hop-portunity costs, tariffs, and bunny suit economics.

I worked closely with Hassett for about a year at the Fed in the 90s. As his TV persona suggests, he really was a nice guy in person. But his long descent into MAGA hackery has been pretty painful to watch. Hard to know if it's bank account boosting cynicism or he's just lost connection with reality

Hassett doing his best to get us back to Dow 36,000.

I'm sure @lorcanrk.bsky.social is thrilled to see all these gutsy 40% chance of recession calls.

I was under the impression that Ireland was desperately short of housing, what with people being homeless and put up in hotels and people living with their parents into their 30s. But apparently, "more supply" is some kind of economist-peddled myth that won't help www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

another opportunity for economists and good government types to explain that this is much better than the bad old days, when Britain was cursed with overinvestment and goldplated public services because Chancellors were allowed to make their own inaccurate forecasts.

I should have also added. Tell the Bank of England you don't think there is justification for its policy of paying interest on all reserves rather than just an upper tier which is enough to control interest rates. Many many billions saved without losing control of market rates, the BoE's actual goal

it is also important to note that this instability is itself an anti-growth policy. if you constantly make a fool of anyone in the private sector who drew up their own plans based on government investment projections, eventually everyone is going to give up on a bad game.

There can't be a country in the world that has a worse fiscal policy process than the UK. A few recommendations for the Labour government 1. Have one fiscal event per year, not two. If your figures are going off track a bit after a few months, just say "we will look at this in the next budget".

I decided to start a #thread 🧵 of stories about legal residents and tourists being (illegally) arrested, detained and/or deported by the Trump regime. I'll only post stories from serious sources, as rumors and conspiracies are really not needed in this authoritarian moment.

For those of you who share my interest in the economics of sports betting (and its social consequences) I recommend this fantastic paper (Do Sports Bettors Need Consumer Protection? Evidence from a Field Experiment) by Stanford graduate students Matthew Brown, Nick Grasley, and Mariana Guido.

I think we are reaching peak "This global crisis means now is the time for country X to implement my pet project Y." www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025...

After last year's super successful event, @public-econ-ie.bsky.social and @centralbankireland.bsky.social are joining up to host IPEW this September! Keynote by @dinapomeranz.bsky.social and panel discussion on supporting public policy through research!

The process of building these wind farms is already taking forever and the Journal's report admits there is no expertise in Ireland in building them. But Labour want the government to step in and further complicate the process by adding its non-existent expertise. Classic "not serious people" stuff

My god. That’s it @financialtimes.com After many years of subscribing, I am cancelling. I read the horrific Tett article. Couldn’t bring myself to read the other one. Sorry to see incredible people like @martinsandbu.ft.com being let down by this kind of thing.

My wonderful mother, Yvonne Whelan, passed away last Friday aged 79. Video of her funeral can be found at www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezSy... And the text of the eulogy at www.karlwhelan.com/Yvonne-speec...

What in the name of god are the FT doing publishing this pile of nonsense? www.ft.com/content/a46c...

I previously agreed with Pat Leahy's article about boorish unprofessional behaviour from politicians on Oireachtas committees. One of the worst offenders has been elected Ceann Comhairle. She also has a history of dog whistle racism. A horrible choice for a position that should be widely respected.