New paper: What did the IRA do to clean energy? And what does OBBBA change? Here's what 3 years of data and 11 models say: - $729B in clean energy investment (+92%) - Battery manufacturing up 8x - Solar investment up 87% - Wind investment DOWN 42% - ZEV purchases: $252B (+173%)

Will the world wake up to global warming as people feel its effects? We argue that the answer depends on individual self-interest. We find that political responses to climate change are polarizing along lines of who is most vulnerable. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

I joined DOE to help pass the IRA and later worked at Rewiring America helping implement it. Listened to this with interest and trepidation. 🧵

Had a great time talking with @robinsonmeyer.bsky.social about why the IRA had limited political returns -- and the future of US climate policymaking heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

NEW SHIFT KEY Why didn’t the Inflation Reduction Act survive? I spoke to @agazmararian.bsky.social, the coauthor of a buzzy new paper on the subject, about why the law failed to create a coalition to protect it — and what that means for future US climate policy. heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

Nice coverage of our study from Scott Waldman -- on why Biden got limited credit as clean energy boomed www.eenews.net/articles/stu...

@agazmararian.bsky.social: Federal leadership can be lost in the "fog of messaging." Gazmararian et al find Biden-Era clean energy investment policies had limited political returns: Voters overwhelmingly attributed new clean energy projects to their governors. news.umich.edu/voters-credi...

The Biden administration did a lot of good things that did not generate political gain. This paper argues that "voters need to be able to trace them back to the responsible political actors" made harder by federalism and the role of private actors in delivery www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Mandatory reading. www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

Thanks, David!

The Biden Admin directed hundreds of billions to clean energy/manufacturing. Did these investments shift public opinion? We find that these projects are visible but not traceable: People notice nearby investments, but connect them to Governors, not Biden. Thread 👇 www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/...

New review article on the political economy of the clean energy transition: www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Excited to start my grad & undergrad classes on the political economy of climate politics this semester 🌍 For the undergrads, I’ve added new simulations — including a day playing Catan: New Energies! Happy to share syllabi with anyone designing or updating courses.

Excited to share that I’ve joined the University of Michigan as an Assistant Professor of Political Science! I’ll continue to study the political economy of climate change, and I’m so grateful to the mentors, colleagues, friends, and family who helped me along the way. Go Blue!

Excited to share my new article in Political Behavior! If people cared more about the future, would they support policies to address long-term issues like climate change? tldr: Life experiences shape future-orientation and climate policy support. Open-access: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Excited to announce a new funding opportunity for research on "what works" in climate adaptation. We are specifically looking for strong causal designs that tell us what interventions work (or don't) to reduce impacts of a changing climate. Plz share + apply! seedfunding.stanford.edu/apply/U5N4

New! Public opinion foundations of the clean energy transition by Alexander F. Gazmararian, Matto Mildenberger & Dustin Tingley. This review article clarifies how public opinion's role in the clean energy transition, & charts priorities for future research. doi.org/10.1080/0964...

The Republican tax and budget bill could sharply slow E.V. sales, harm US competitiveness, and kill off manufacturing investment and jobs, the NY Times reports www.nytimes.com/2025/05/23/b... For more, see our REPEAT Project analysis cited in the Times ⤵️

nytimes.com/2025/05/23/b... While some GOP House members wrote letters, in the end, none would tank the whole bill to save the IRA's EV incentives.

It's so cool to see this paper in print! Relevant if you're interested in: - The domestic politics of stopping global warming - How voters understand their changing economic circumstances - The erosion of working-class support for Democrats www.journals.uchicago.edu/eprint/HBDCS...

Unfortunately, all Census TIGER/Line and cartographic boundary shapefiles are down as of this evening. This means that the tigris #rstats and pygris #Python packages will not work, and geometry support in tidycensus will also fail. The Census API, for now, is still up.

Tomorrow's the deadline for the Climate Pipeline Conference!

Updated paper ⬇️ on how vulnerability moderates political responses to climate shocks. Check it out! osf.io/preprints/os...

Application deadline closes on January 31 for *2025's Climate Pipeline Workshop* at Princeton University. May 9, 2025. It's designed for pre-tenure political scientists. harvard.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Time horizons matter, and they can change. Parenthood makes people more likely to support climate action, in part because it extends their time horizon. Great work from Alex Gazmarian link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Some new research on how time horizons affect policy preferences. Tldr: it's possible to lengthen time horizons and increase support for climate policy Open access: link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Really excited to host @agazmararian.bsky.social and Helen Milner at UCSB Department of Political Science and @the2035initiative.bsky.social to workshop their book "Climate Fault Lines" and talk about future of climate politics domestically and internationally over two action-packed days.

Please apply by Jan 31 to 2025's Climate Pipeline Workshop at Princeton University, held on May 9, 2025. Designed for pre-tenure political scientists Cc @climatesollab.bsky.social @dustintingley.bsky.social @agazmararian.bsky.social harvard.az1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

Thrilled to share that my paper on electoral backlash in coal country---and the politics of visibility---has been conditionally accepted at JOP! papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Honored that the American Energy Society recognized Uncertain Futures with a "Best Book" award! www.linkedin.com/feed/update/...

Check out our updated paper on when governments respond to climate change with mitigation policy papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

EnergySky GreenSky ClimateSky PoliSky

Had a great time talking to @jeremywallace.bsky.social about what the clean energy boom means for fossil fuel communities, drawing on my book, Uncertain Futures, with @dustintingley.bsky.social. You can check out our conversation @goodauth.bsky.social goodauthority.org/news/what-cl...

Excited to share a new paper on the electoral effects of green industrial policy with Lewis Krashinsky Paper: bit.ly/3QEMsJI Thread below. polisky

I'm excited to share that my article on fossil fuel community preferences over just transition assistance is out and open access at Energy Policy! sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

I’m excited to introduce my book with @dustintingley, Uncertain Futures: How to Unlock the Climate Impasse (Cambridge), to polisky. We explain why the climate impasse is hard to break. Credibility challenges stand in the way, but we identify solutions to unlock support. bit.ly/3Dkc9cn

I'm pleased to share that this paper has been accepted at Energy Policy! 🎉

Excited to present my new paper with Lewis Krashinsky, "Driving Labor Apart: Climate Policy Backlash in the American Auto Corridor," at EPG Online this Thursday. All are welcome to join at 11:30 ET. Thanks to @liambeisermcgrath.bsky.social for organizing! www.pecclab.com/project/epg-...

Excited to share an updated version of my paper on fossil fuel community preferences over the design of "just transition" assistance. I combine a novel sampling strategy with survey techniques for measuring multi-dimensional preferences. I report three primary findings: bit.ly/3DzZthz