This is so good. All the key points about the role of energy in intervention here.

I thought this was great and very informative. The Maduro Regime Without Maduro www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a...

I wonder a bit about the applicability of existing research to this case. Is this even a regime change? Trump cares very little about norms so there will likely be coercion and repression. This might be horrendous for the Venezuelan people but lead to some neocolonial stability.

I wrote about the violence reaching the capital of Mali @goodauth.bsky.social - Peacebuilding failed - This doesn’t mean all interventions are doomed, just under some conditions (even in Mali!) - Not too late for international community to think creatively about helping civilians in Mali

Mali's Islamist siege, explained by @wnomikos.bsky.social in @goodauth.bsky.social . goodauthority.org/news/mali-is...

Still absolutely floored that my book, Local Peace, International Builders, received the APSA Experiments Section Best Book award! The book uses field, survey, and natural experiments to test a new theory of peacebuilding, which I develop formally in the book. 👇 Access links

New data release from the Deportation Data Project: Every ICE arrest, detainer request, and book-in to detention nationwide between September 1, 2023 and October 15, 2025. deportationdata.org/news/2025-12...

“It feels illegal.”

I have no idea what’s going on with US foreign policy. What a dangerous disaster. Just total chaos. I can’t believe it’s just year 1.

Very clear to know what to do for next shutdown fight but, since GOP obviously won’t fund subsidies, Dems *should* pick the same fight and have as a goal for Republicans to nuke the filibuster. The problem is that even if that’s issued as a direct threat to GOP, Dems won’t have credibility.

Good luck with the dictatorship my guy. Doesn’t matter how corrupt or abusive you are if people have had enough and are willing to make those preference clear. Keep it up everyone!

Gelman’s answer is essentially “no under most reasonable scenarios.” Worth the full read for the nuance.

Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)

Just casually dropping in people like Lina Khan as transition co-chair. I think Mamdani isn’t listening to the people who said he can’t/won’t do the things he talked about. Looks like he’ll try!

Unbelievable to be here, more than a decade later, and all of the efforts of the international community to prevent a West African Afghanistan in Mali might be for naught. All of the fighting—literal and metaphorical—that Malians have done for naught. I’ll write more soon but some thoughts: (1/5)

The big question for me is what percentage of Trump voters in 2024 did or did not vote for the Republican in this election. The question is more about non-voters who stayed home rather than voters that chose an alternative candidate. Does anyone have that data?

Mamdani: "We can respond to oligarchy and authoritarianism with the strength it fears, not the appeasement it craves. After all, if anyone can show a nation betrayed by Donald Trump how to defeat him, it is the city that gave rise to him."

I’m just so happy to see so many different Americans in the greatest city in the world being so excited about politics. POLITICS!!

McPherson does a good job contextualizing Trump/Venezuela but headline writer should probably not use “unprecedented.” From the piece itself: “From 1915 to 1934, for example, the U.S. invaded and then occupied Haiti and may have killed as many as 11,500 people.” And that’s just one example!

Ultimately the difference between Dems and GOP is that when the Dems got power in the 21st century, they passed huge and important policy bills instead of making institutional changes that would lock them in power for the next quarter century. Probably a little short-sighted in retrospect.

Wait what’s happening?

For all my Santa Barbara-based connections: here is a great place to go this week to donate, volunteer, and just help out as the Federal government chooses to cut SNAP benefits: foodbanksbc.org

They just don't care about democracy or accountability or anything like it.

This is an open call for starting a civil war. It’s a little weird he is on TV saying this, as if there isn’t an internal mechanism by which he can inform ICE.

I think that’s right—Trump has shown that the constitution has failed in one of its critical goals: restraining a would-be king. The judicial and legislative branches and states seem relatively powerless against the power of a determined executive. Not sure what else is left.

Lost in the gold: Trump, donors, and friends (?!) paying for ballroom. What? Between this and suing the Justice Department, we are entering into some wild levels of corruption here.

It’s a new international system. I hope we like it—this is what’s now there.

Sahel convos shifting quickly to the "day after" scenarios. After the fall of Bamako. Not a silly possibility anymore. Western capitals visibly don't care

Big lead for Prop 50 in a new CBS/YouGov poll: 62% yes, 38% no. www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-new...

I know time travel is technically impossible but pretty sure I just went back to 2010 after hearing the Björk/Dirty Projectors at the top of this excellent 60 songs episode on Vampire Weekend @harvilla.bsky.social open.spotify.com/episode/4aaX...

The end of American democracy as we knew it is already here. It’s about clawing it back now.

It’s just not fair at this stage. Wow Zohran.

Combined with growth in targeted violence from paramilitaries, our current moment beginning to look a lot like the end of the 19th century.

Excited to talk about peacebuilding today. If you're around come join. If not, there is a Zoom option I believe.

Did not know about this! Buyer beware.

lol they’ve got nothing in response to Pritzker, Johnson, and Chicago people power

I’m honestly less concerned about the military than the paramilitary/military forces Trump is sending into our cities and using to attack civilians around the country.

Sometimes somebody just has to come out and cut through the bs and just be super clear about what’s happening here.

Trump wants to jail IL gov Pritzker and Chicago Mayor Johnson and they both basically say “let him try.” Just a horrifying abuse of Federal power. So empowering to see powerful public officials call it out and confront it. Wow. www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/u...

Goosebumps watching this. Chicagoans fighting for this country. Mass collective action is the only thing that can keep fascism away.

Pritzker: "It's unconscionable. This has never happened before. They're calling out troops onto the streets of a state that doesn't want them and they're not even telling us where they're gonna go, what they're gonna do. This hasn't happened I don't think since the Civil War."

I’m not sure I have enough words for how awful this is.

Really excited to talk about my book next week at @stanfordcisac.bsky.social! If you are around, come join! To read the book (open access): www.cambridge.org/core/books/l...

Next week: "Local Peace, International Builders: How the UN Builds Peace from the Bottom Up" with @wnomikos.bsky.social. RSVP here⤵️ cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/events/local...

I’m extremely worried about ICE or national guard employing what looks like counterinsurgency tactics in American cities. This is exactly the type of military use that turns deadly. Undertrained forces doing this in places like West Africa quickly resort to indiscriminate violence against civilians.

It’s amazing and frightening how quickly things can go from “feels a bit 1960” to “feels a bit 1860.” At some point, something will give. You have to hope it’s the Republican governors or maybe the military itself?

Wow. They’ve got nothing.