Bouie totally right here. The only thing to add is that 2024 GOP win relied also on the structure of American electoral politics at the Presidential, House, and Senate levels that have long favored Republican politics and demographics.

i have said this before but i think that ones view of the current political situation is fundamentally shaped by how you view the outcome of the 2024 election. was it a definitive affirmation of the MAGA worldview or a narrow, extremely contingent result?

"... reshapes our understanding of southern politics, democratic backsliding, and American political development." Stolen Representation by Michael P. Olson, Coming Soon Explore the first title in the Cambridge Studies in American Legislatures series #LawSky #BookSky 🗺️ 🗃️ https://cup.org/46veCij

Incredible stuff—can’t think of a way this could have gone worse for Trump. Great for Kimmel!

Shanah Tovah, New York City. Here's to a sweet and hopeful New Year.

Truly an honor and dream come true to see my book, Local Peace, International Builders, with the other Cambridge University Press @universitypress.cambridge.org award winners at @apsa.bsky.social APSA 2025! www.williamgnomikos.com/local-peace

Please share: @alanjacobs.bsky.social and I are running a Jan '26 course at @gesis.org Cologne on 𝐂𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐚𝐥 𝐌𝐨𝐝𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐐𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐌𝐢𝐱𝐞𝐝 𝐌𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐨𝐝𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐜𝐡 🕵️Process tracing + Bayesian inference + graphical causal models All in two heady days. training.gesis.org?site=pDetail...

Democrats should become the anti-corruption party. 72% of voters think a member of Congress would likely accept a bribe if offered one. 80% say donors run DC. The solution isn’t left vs right, it’s clean vs corrupt. But first, Democrats must reform themselves and reject big money.

My mother had to flee the Greek dictatorship in the early 70s (to Sweden) and one of the things she would always talk about that I never understood was the regime collaborators. I see now of course, living with Trump, how easy and mainstream collaboration becomes. Wow!

Great point and one I’ve been discussing a lot with friends interested in a “US exit strategy.” I’m also not sure that neutral is actually sitting it out in practice. For example, US can sit out of UN contributions but that would essentially mean defunding UNPKOs, a pillar of the liberal order.

Hopefully Disney bends to pressure, apologizes, restores Jimmy, and we can all go back to She-Hulk, which was awesome.

i don’t think people on bluesky understand the severity of this situation. i woke up to literally hundreds of texts from friends and family thinking about either moving back home to india or applying to other countries for jobs. this includes me.

At some point--maybe in the coming weeks, maybe in the coming months--the administration will send ICE out to arrest Democrats because of some domestic terrorists charges. That's their 2026 Midterm strategy. This is just very clearly where we are going. It couldn't be more obvious.

Update: he just did a podcast leading with this where he explained the whole situation. It was pretty apolitical and disappointing as a whole.

Has Bill Simmons or anyone at the Ringer commented on the Jimmy Kimmel situation? I think it will be interesting given Simmons has connection with Kimmel as well as ESPN/ABC. Also, it will be an interesting barometer for how a wider audience will react to it.

Swalwell: There’s going to be a Democratic majority in just over a year. To the FCC chairperson and anyone in involved in these dirty deals: get a lawyer and save your records because you’re going to be in this room answering questions

"Conservatives who say they support democracy and free speech must speak up right now."

Literally my most visited place in New Haven (carts don’t count).

By Karl Rove!!

A terrifying night in American fascism.

So much news and testimony today let’s not miss this. Trump making country less safe for our kids.

Watch the whole clip for that trademark unique brand of corruption and fascism. Just coming daily now from Republican leaders, including Trump.

Political scientists in the southeast (broadly defined), submit your paper to SoWEPS to get great feedback! We match you with a discussant and everyone reads ahead. We're hosting at Tulane on November 9, submissions due September 19: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...

Thanks to team at @goodauth.bsky.social and especially @claryc.bsky.social for giving me space to pontificate on European peacekeeping force to Ukraine. Co-written with Joshua Zhang, a former undergrad student in my peacekeeping class at UCSB. goodauthority.org/news/rethink...

At @goodauth.bsky.social we thought it would be helpful to ask peacekeeping experts about peacekeeping proposals for Ukraine. Thanks to @wnomikos.bsky.social and Joshua Zhang for their insightful essay! goodauthority.org/news/rethink...

NEWS: Gov. Kathy Hochul has endorsed Zohran Mamdani for NYC mayor "We’ve had our disagreements. But in our conversations, I heard a leader who shares my commitment to a New York where children can grow up safe in their neighborhoods and where opportunity is within reach for every family."

One thing I keep coming back to after the Kirk assassination is the idea that we just cannot understand social and political life in 2025 just offline. There is no "real world" that is cleanly separate from the internet. I don't think we are going back.

I have many thoughts about Charlie Kirk—and perhaps even more about the white elites, including some on the left, who insist we can’t hold multiple realities at once. We can. And we must. A brief 🧵

Needless to say, if you're a graduate student interested in IR (and drinks + food!), you should stop by and come hang out. We are welcoming and inclusive bunch!

If you're at APSA, come join us for the business meeting of the IR Theory Section from 6:30-7:30 at the Vancouver Convention Center (West 113). AND THEN, join us for an amazing reception at the Roof at Black + Blue Vancouver co-sponsored by the Texas A&M Albritton Center for Grand Strategy.

Truly an honor and dream come true to see my book, Local Peace, International Builders, with the other Cambridge University Press @universitypress.cambridge.org award winners at @apsa.bsky.social APSA 2025! www.williamgnomikos.com/local-peace

An absolutely unconscionable violation of the constitution that will harm US interests abroad and destabilize politics around the world.

If I were Ukraine, I’d worry that the Europeans would be ok with a ceasefire and a very vague security guarantee in exchange for territorial concessions by Ukraine just for the purpose of ending the war. Not sure the Europeans have the nerve for more war and Trump is desperate for a deal.

Very hard to imagine what an actual "Article V-like" security guarantee looks like in practice. Hard to imagine that the US would backstop a security guarantee like that and if it doesn't, it's not Article V-like in the slightest. But who knows, Trump has surprised me before.

It's surreal watching these Trump meetings with foreign leaders and waiting for play-by-play on social media and NY Times. It's like the worst kind of sports--you have this sinking feeling in your stomach that your team is just going to commit a huge enforced error leading to disaster.

New @egap.bsky.social grant round just dropped looking for fresh ideas for open science, design, aggregation, transfer.. Pass it on Deadline 31 October

Situation among the military in Bamako right now is very serious, yet very opaque, too. Fair to say it's a make or break situation for the regime

Drowning is “the No. 2 cause of accidental death in children, ages 15 and under (just behind vehicle accidents)—of the approximately 750 children who will drown next year, about 375 of them will do so within 25 yards of a parent or other adult.”

Governor Newsom should stop the zombie sable pipeline in Santa Barbara. We have already had a major oil spill from this pipeline. It would be insane to reopen it. Read this exceptional reporting from @antoniajuhasz.bsky.social. www.rollingstone.com/politics/pol...

The annoying spam texts destroying the Democratic brand: $678M raised through those spam tactics $282M to one consulting firm: Mothership Strategies. $11M to actual campaigns (1.6%) The party isn’t just treating donors like marks—it’s being fleeced itself yet continues to back Mothership.

Is this illegal? Oooh ohh It feels illegal

🎉 CEGA is excited to welcome @wnomikos.bsky.social as a new faculty affiliate! Read what Will is looking forward to as he joins CEGA’s robust network of researchers.

The European Political Science Society is now accepting paper & panel proposals for its annual conference! 📢 Call for Papers: EPSS 2026 – Belfast
 🗓️ June 18–20, 2026
 📍 ICC Belfast
 📬 Deadline: Nov 7, 2025 🧵

The @epssnet.bsky.social call for the 2026 conference in Belfast opened today! 😮 epssnet.org/belfast-2026... Deadline: 7 November 2025

This list of top clutch plays of the past season is 20% Tyrese Haliburton. www.youtube.com/watch?v=8F-a...

🚨Publication day — my first book is out! “Seeing is Disbelieving: Why People Believe Misinformation in War, and When They Know Better” is a deep dive into factual misinformation in modern war and conflict, and why people do and don’t believe it. @cambridgeup.bsky.social cambridge.org/9781009523585

If only someone had warned us about exactly this.

I saw Arthur Jafa’s “Love is the Message and the Message is Death” at the Pinault Collection in Paris last week and it was one of the most affecting films I have ever seen. Wow. Shout out to Tina Campt and Elana Resnick whose work led me there. www.pinaultcollection.com/en/boursedec...

I’m reading the Odyssey to my son for the first time (the amazing Gillian Cross version) and I am reminded of how foundational the story is to modern storytelling, especially science fiction and fantasy. No wonder my 9th grade English teacher assigned it and Nolan is making a movie out of it!