"Turning that “routine” situation into a read play instantly changes the calculus. Suddenly the runner can’t coast to third without consequence he has to read the fielder, introducing hesitation, indecision, and a very real chance for an extra out." open.substack.com/pub/jrod2003...

There is no such thing as bad publicity, I am told.

"Turning that “routine” situation into a read play instantly changes the calculus. Suddenly the runner can’t coast to third without consequence he has to read the fielder, introducing hesitation, indecision, and a very real chance for an extra out." open.substack.com/pub/jrod2003...

Breakeven point here is like 52% fielders don't need to be perfect to get wins. Worth it

"That’s the trade-off if a hitter locks into one tilt, their coverage is limited. Which leads to the bigger point: Players need adaptability in their approach if they’re going to survive against the variety of pitches and locations they’ll see." www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"Too often, the post-play debate in the dugout comes down to feel “it was the right time,” or “he should’ve held up.” Instinct has its place, but baseball’s evolved past gut reactions. We can start breaking down these plays with actual numbers." jrod20033.substack.com/p/when-a-div...

"Too often, the post-play debate in the dugout comes down to feel “it was the right time,” or “he should’ve held up.” Instinct has its place, but baseball’s evolved past gut reactions. We can start breaking down these plays with actual numbers." jrod20033.substack.com/p/when-a-div...

2nd-best team by our Decision Value metric. Pretty wild that their run scoring is where it is, given their 10th-overall wOBA (good, but not top-tier) and nearly league-worst Pull Air% (so it's not like their batted balls are outperforming due to being pulled HR).

The best offense in baseball has the lowest barrel rate, is a thing I want you to keep in mind when people quote barrel rate.

"Fastball contact sets the foundation, breaking balls test a hitter’s ability to adjust, and the gap between those windows can determine how consistently a player makes contact or avoids swinging and missing." www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"What a player mastered back in spring training isn’t guaranteed to be there in September unless it’s been refreshed" open.substack.com/pub/jrod2003...

"What a player mastered back in spring training isn’t guaranteed to be there in September unless it’s been refreshed" open.substack.com/pub/jrod2003...

Shohei hits a homer off Chandler at 120 MPH, gets hilarious reactions from everybody involved.

Red Sox doing high velocity bunting drills

MLB games lasting 3+ hours: 2003: 28% 2004: 31% 2005: 30% 2006: 32% 2007: 39% 2008: 37% 2009: 38% 2010: 38% 2011: 40% 2012: 47% 2013: 52% 2014: 58% 2015: 46% 2016: 54% 2017: 62% 2018: 54% 2019: 62% 2020: 59% 2021: 67% 2022: 60% 2023: 17% 👀 2024: 12% 👀 2025: 15% 👀

"Early in the count, poor decisions are penalized less than you’d think it takes roughly four bad decisions at 0-0 to equal just one bad decision at 3-2. That gap matters. As the leverage shifts toward the hitter, the opportunity for reward grows" jrod20033.substack.com/p/chase-less...

"Early in the count, poor decisions are penalized less than you’d think it takes roughly four bad decisions at 0-0 to equal just one bad decision at 3-2. That gap matters. As the leverage shifts toward the hitter, the opportunity for reward grows" jrod20033.substack.com/p/chase-less...

Navegando el espectro: examinando las concesiones del ángulo de ataque, por @jrodrigues39.bsky.social, traducción de @battfer.bsky.social. ¡Para leer todo nuestro contenido en español, ve a baseballprospectus.com/espanol! www.baseballprospectus.com/en-espanol/a...

Hoy en @enespanol.baseballprospectus.com Navegando el espectro: examinando las concesiones del ángulo de ataque, por @jrodrigues39.bsky.social , traducción de @battfer.bsky.social .

When people talk tunneling I always think of this from years ago.

"In the end, attack angle highlights the delicate balancing act hitters face on every swing. Flat swings lead players to maximize line drives and solid contact, but make it difficult to elevate the ball enough for productive slugging."

Navigating the Spectrum: Examining The Attack Angle Trade-off by Joshua Rodrigues (@jrodrigues39.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

A+, the rare evocative statue.

phenomenal piece on Hurston Waldrep's resurgence from @mariodelgadogenzor.bsky.social:

fun piece from @bradleywoodrum.bsky.social on the benefits of swinging hard(er): www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Bonus content from @hannahrkeyser.bsky.social's youth pitching reporting? Bonus content! Featuring thoughts from Justin Verlander. Today in The Bandwagon. bandwagon.substack.com/p/62-the-mos...

How players attack pitches has an effect on the outcome of different swings in different swing locations. Two examples here of how this plays out across the zone.

If Swing Models ultimately lead us to Bat Speed is good as one of the major takeaways. I would be very disappointed that we didn't learn anything new. We know bat speed is good. But what else can we learn about how the bat and batter are effected by other ideas.

For example here is Arozerena. Much Flatter than you would expect basically across the zone. Vs. Judge who is significantly more vertical across the zone than you would expect him to be. How players attack pitches in different ways has a decent change in which areas they can handle.

The way that players attack pitches is dynamic to where the pitch is thrown. Balls that are thrown down and in require players to get more vertical with the bat. While those that are higher in the zone require a flatter approach.

Ready for a deep dive? Big Swing Decision wants you to think Andrew Vaughn only changed his approach, from his time with the White Sox to his explosive stint with the Brewers. It's a lie. His swing is dramatically different, too, and it's made a huge difference. brewerfanatic.com/news-rumors/...

You’re going to want to read @hannahrkeyser.bsky.social in the @nytimes.com on youth pitchers and their parents. For motivated young baseball players, throwing hard is both the most imminently accessible and undeniably risky route to acclaim and the pros. www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/p...

Pitchers waste their time shagging fly balls. Meanwhile, they are neglected when it comes to pitcher fielding practice (PFP), the one defensive skill that translates to the game. It's time to ditch this antiquated idea and start working on what counts. jrod20033.substack.com/p/the-forget...

Having top-end bat speed is great and all. Having a fast swing with natural loft, even better. Once you graduate from the minors, though, the question is: Can you get off your 'A' swing against the best pitchers in the world? Owen Caissie can. That's a big deal. northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...

The Hidden Forces Driving Managers to Rethink Pickoff Strategy by Joshua Rodrigues (@jrodrigues39.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"It’s almost like poker. The pitcher thinks he’s bluffing to keep control of the hand, but the more he throws over, the more information he’s actually giving away. What feels like gaining an edge is, in reality, slowly losing it." www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"It’s almost like poker. The pitcher thinks he’s bluffing to keep control of the hand, but the more he throws over, the more information he’s actually giving away. What feels like gaining an edge is, in reality, slowly losing it." www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

Okay that's an incredible graphic

Love ball

This article by @jrodrigues39.bsky.social at @baseballprospectus.com came out on trade deadline day. I shared it then, but you were distracted. Go back now; read it. That way, you won't feel silly about finally getting to it when it wins an award next year. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"The play looked like a massive mix-up in a game that was slipping away, with the Giants on the verge of getting blown out. It made the team look sloppy and instantly became a clip fueling the narrative about their second-half struggles." jrod20033.substack.com/p/the-play-t...

"The play looked like a massive mix-up in a game that was slipping away, with the Giants on the verge of getting blown out. It made the team look sloppy and instantly became a clip fueling the narrative about their second-half struggles." jrod20033.substack.com/p/the-play-t...

Brother went to the Sox Marlin's took this pic of the Marlin's Bullpen. Not uncommon. Most teams with a good process work this type of set up for bullpens BEFORE HOME games. Few are committed to this DURING HOME game bullpens. In ANY situation almost no team does this on the road. Marlin's >>>

"At the end of the day, it’s not the offenses’s job to look away it’s the pitcher’s job to give them nothing worth seeing. If you don’t want your pitches tipped, stop tipping them." jrod20033.substack.com/p/fair-game-...

The Trajekt Effect: How Technology Shifts the Game’s Learning Curve by Joshua Rodrigues (@jrodrigues39.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"In many ways, it’s no different than students walking into a test already having worked through practice questions that mirror the real thing: confidence goes up, mistakes go down, and the learning curve shortens." www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

"These guys are elite. They know what they’re doing. So when a mistake like this surfaces, it’s worth asking: what was he trying to do, and what does it tell us?" Looking at Dansby Swanson's missed bag the other night and what it can teach us. jrod20033.substack.com/p/the-front-...

Casey Stengel, 1923 New York #Giants #Baseball