Swiss executives gave Trump a specially engraved gold bar and a Rolex clock to help secure trade deal on.ft.com/4p4mPBS

Swiss executives gave Trump a specially engraved gold bar and a Rolex clock to help secure trade deal on.ft.com/4p4mPBS

"I say we take off and nuke the site from orbit. It's the only way to be sure."

It's not just that the United States has stopped trying to promote liberal democratic ideas internationally. It's that the United States is actively trying to promote the contrary. It's trying to turn more countries into Hungary. www.nytimes.com/2025/11/26/u...

Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Bloomberg maintains Kevin Hassett is the frontrunner to be Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve Board Chair to replace Jerome Powell www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Conference Board consumer sentiment the lowest since Trump announced his tariff depredations in April. As the US labour market cracks, we should see a narrowing in the divergence with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...

FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater

"There are accounts that are run by troll farms, that are run by nation states, and then there are accounts that are just trying to make a buck by pretending to be American." www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c...

FRB Chicago Economic Conditions Activity Index 6-12 month hiring expectations remain near record lows in November, with capex expectations also still underwater

Peter Conti-Brown reads Kevin Warsh so you don't have to petercontibrown.substack.com/i/179823130/...

"This has created a system where it makes financial sense for people from the entire world to specifically target Americans with highly engaging, divisive content. It pays more. " www.404media.co/americas-pol...

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey measure of current economic conditions at a record low in November, levels normally associated with major downturns, crisis and plague. Even applying the Cummings and Tedeschi correction for the switch to the online survey only gets you to around 70

This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...

This week’s newsletter open.substack.com/pub/stephenk...

“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL

10 years ago "House of Debt" was published to wide acclaim and became the go-to explainer about the housing boom and financial crisis. Can we say now that it was quite clearly wrong? If not now, when can we say it?

“‘We have tried openness, we have tried transparency, and all that does is bring out our enemies.’” A good primer on the contradictions in China’s official economic data on.ft.com/4o5wBCL

It’s genuinely good to see a conservative think tank like Hudson advocating for RFA and RFE/RL: www.hudson.org/human-rights...

The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it. osf.io/preprints/os...

The Symbolic Politics of Housing: voter dislike of the very actors who could ameliorate the housing shortage they suffer from probably exacerbates it. osf.io/preprints/os...

For thirty years I worked in the post-Soviet successor states in Central Asia and observed over and over again precisely the cycle that Bill Kristol describes. Corruption leads to authoritarianism, directly. The path is utterly predictable.

In the 1980s, for the average woman, it would have taken 6 years of wages to purchase the average Brighton property. In 2025, despite radical improvements in gender pay, it would take the average woman nearly 33 years...

NIMBYs in Brighton. This is why housing is unaffordable.

If you are an ambitious politician looking for tomorrow's issue to champion, @scottwiener.bsky.social, California's top YIMBY legislator, provides a good model to follow.

IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk

When the housing stock filters up

When the housing stock filters up

IMF data show US held about SDR 127bn in October, down by 640.8mn, while Argentina’s holdings rose by 640.8mn. Argentina’s central bank balance sheet suggests USD 2.7bn of the USD 20bn currency swap line has been drawn, with a portion being used to make debt payments to the IMF on.ft.com/4qZxUpk

So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

So much for the AI-powered productivity boom www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Three German universities offering post-docs for researchers "who cannot conduct or continue their work in the USA appropriately because of actual political pressure. " www.uni-konstanz.de/zukunftskoll...

This new affordable housing project in San Jose is going to require public subsidy of one million dollars per unit, and that is *on top of* the rent that the tenants will pay. At these prices, subsidized affordable housing will never get us broad housing affordability. We need to unleash the market.

Trial balloon for “I respect the Supreme Court, but I can’t obey them.”

Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high

Melbourne Institute house price expectations rise to a new cycle high

I’m honoured to be featured alongside some of Australia’s biggest names in wonkdom in the summer issue of Inflection Points. My paper is the culmination of 4 years work on declining civic participation — and why other researchers into the phenomenon have a blind spot for political parties.

My new article "Immigration is Not Invasion" is now up on SSRN. It comprehensively explains why illegal migration and drug smuggling do not qualify as "invasion" under the Constitution and the Alien Enemies Act of 1798: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Credible central banks can fight inflation with smaller rate hikes — a "reputation dividend". New research combines theory and bond-market evidence to measure its size, from Luigi Bocola, Alessandro Dovis, Kasper Jørgensen, and Rishabh Kirpalani www.nber.org/papers/w34436

FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels

Index of current economic conditions at record lows in November

University of Michigan consumer sentiment falls to three year lows, levels normally associated with severe downturns

"Meanwhile, Nikkei Asia has learned that the Pentagon has shifted oversight of the AUKUS defense pact to (...) the assistant secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs."

FRBNY survey of consumer expectations has the mean probability of finding a job in the next three months off the record lows seen in August, but still around pandemic levels

University of Michigan consumer sentiment falls to three year lows, levels normally associated with severe downturns

Heritage Foundation staff in open revolt, Chris DeMuth has left the organisation www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...