And the US isn't helping. Gift link: on.ft.com/3K8y5Oj

Really useful essay with detailed history and historiography; worth a read.

Putin's provocations of Nato are because he wants us to stop supporting Ukraine. It's an advanced version of the escalation threats, and he wants us to spend the resources on our own defense instead of sending it to Ukraine.

Reason number 5728 to build up the European military industrial base www.theatlantic.com/national-sec...

The Kremlin cannot defeat NATO militarily, so it fabricates a myth of Western betrayal and NATO “encirclement,” weaponizing grievance to demand concessions.

"'Russia simply does not have the wherewithal to fully subjugate Ukraine by force. Yes, they are winding forward on the battlefield, but at a snail’s pace and horrendous cost, and Putin’s army is still far short of its original invasion objectives,' said Moore." www.wsj.com/world/russia...

The Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social: European allies are capable of acting also without US leadership in NATO, but different layers of minilaterql defence cooperation without a coherent overarching structure is a challenge. Also featuring NATO Eastern Sentry and EU ”drone wall”

On this date in 1939, the USSR invaded Poland in cooperation with its ally, Nazi Germany. www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/timot...

This isn’t entirely encouraging to Russia, as European NATO members are clearly able to operate also without Americans (at least in this kind of limited contingencies)

What a week huh! The latest Europe Dispatch with @phillipspobrien.bsky.social: Russia likes symbolic twists so it may or may not have been intentional that the drone attack on Poland took place just before Ursula von der Leyen was going to give her ”State of the European Union” speech.

Still the best explanation of Russian tactics and the difficulty of deterrence. From: Yes, Prime Minister.

Debating whether and how Russia intended to violate Polish airspace is a distraction: either way, Europe and NATO need to take countermeasures that will make sure Moscow does not walk away thinking this is a risk-free venture, then do it again and more. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/p...

Targeting civilians and grain production "recalls earlier attempts by Stalin to suppress a Ukrainian independence movement in the 1930s by depriving Ukrainians of grain in an artificial famine called Holodomor, which killed millions." www.wsj.com/world/a-ukra...

What to Make of Putin's Drones Over Poland? Some initial thoughts. tldr: neither attack on NATO nor accident, it's a probe and a warning youtu.be/Dgg-FFpcwV0

I just published this video, and the next night, Russia launches drones at Poland. It really underscores the point. The European NATO countries need Ukraine just as much as Ukraine needs security guarantees from them.

Hi All, Latest Europe Dispatch by @alanderminna.bsky.social just appeared. Russia is waging a form of (hybrid) warfare against Europe--why are people so reluctant to face it? open.substack.com/pub/phillips...

War is not about numbers or metal.War is about people Today is Remembrance Day for the fallen Defenders of #Ukraine We have lost&continue losing our best people -heroes of Ukraine&Europe.Eternal memory&eternal glory to those who gave their lives for Ukraine.May their deaths&heroism not be in vain.

”Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has led to any number of unintended consequences, but none so quick and profound as the consolidation of the Nordic and Baltic regions under the NATO umbrella. The Nordic and Baltic states have also been the most enthusiastic supporters of Ukraine.”

This would have been a beautiful map had it not depicted the scope of Russia's sabotage on European infrastructure 2018-2025. Take your time and decipher it. From this report: www.iiss.org/research-pap...

Article worth reading by Alexander Motyl in The National Security Journal. It references the conversation I had with Paul Krugman about the weakness in military analysis today. nationalsecurityjournal.org/why-the-expe...

"If it were true that Ukraine belongs to Russia in the 2020s because a Russian dictator knows a legend about a Viking in the 860s... millions of people who actually live there would have no voice in their own identity: no choice but to accept the executions, the torture, the kidnapping of children."

Useful maps and graphics with this article: "Russia has been unable to make a breakthrough, and its advance in some areas, such as around the eastern city of Kupyansk, has been slower than the British and French advance at the Battle of the Somme in World War I." www.wsj.com/world/russia...

Good overview of the capabilities and possibilities of Ukraine's new Flamingo missile by @frhoffmann.bsky.social.

Had a great time talking to KQED/NPR's Dr. Moira Gunn about my new book, TO DIE WITH SUCH MEN, which follows a group of International Legion volunteers fighting for Ukraine: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/e...

It's a bit ridiculous to watch the Western press excited about Trump's message about security guarantees for Ukraine without reporting that the Russians simultaneously deny having made such a concession.

For six months now, European leaders have confused Trump‘s malleability for an opportunity. What it really means is that US policy is not the foundation on which European and Ukrainian security can be built. A quick thread /1

Russian foreign ministry clarifies that they will under no circumstances accept NATO soldiers on Ukrainian territory after a peace agreement. So much for Steve Witkoff's claim that Putin had given this concession in Alaska.

Ukrainians didn't surrender in 2014, when the world refused even to recognize russian aggression. Ukrainians didn't surrender in 2022, when the world expected us to fall in 72h. Ukrainians won't surrender in 2025, either. For us, freedom and sovereignty are not empty words.

Europe's most solid security guarantee today is the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It's in Europe's best interest to ensure the AFU have everything they need in time to defeat the russian imperial conquest.

It is highly unlikely that Putin is willing to make the concessions that Witkoff et al. are claiming like robust security guarantees for Ukraine. From a Russian perspective, it would amount to a Putin acknowledging that they have lost the war.

Reminder from @wsj.com that Putin "hasn’t given up his overarching goals of restoring Russian political sway over Ukraine, rebuilding Moscow’s sphere of influence in Europe’s east, and regaining the status of a global great power. That is what he went to war for in 2022." www.wsj.com/world/how-wi...

I agree with this. I am sure Putin was chuckling all the way back to Moscow over how he made a fool of Trump, but he still has all the same problems he had before and did not get substantially closer to winning the war.

The media needs to choose its words carefully. Trump wants/aims/hopes the war would end a certain way. He doesn’t acknowledge/announce/affirm that XYZ will happen. He simply doesn’t have the final say. Zelensky/Ukr society and Pu/Ru elites will ultimately decide whether the fighting stops.

As things stand, Ukraine and Europe are on the verge of being confronted with exactly the kind of Faustian deal they feared would emerge back in February. The fact that Europe hasn’t moved to block such a deal in the past six months is a failure of leadership and diplomacy. /1

I’m shocked and disappointed at how quickly everybody reverts to « Ru is a great power » and « great powers will decide Ukraine’s fate » against the ample evidence that Ukraine holds its own and Ru cannot advance and cannot militarily compel the capitulation that it keeps asking for.

Another great piece by Minna Alander, @alanderminna.bsky.social, the new star of European security policy analysis. And now also the defence editor of the European Correspondent phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/pessimism-...

Great battle analysis video from @united24media.com, with a beautiful tribute at the end. Much more on the intense fighting done in 'Servo' by some of the International Legion teams in my book To Die With Such Men www.hurstpublishers.com/book/to-die-... www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qdt...

'The colonel [...] says Ukraine should live by the Roman adage: If you want peace, prepare for war. 'Our regiment will continue building,' even after the conflict is over, he said. 'I failed to protect my children from war. At least I’ll protect my grandkids.'" www.wsj.com/world/europe...

In this video I address the idea that air power would save the European NATO countries from the quagmire that drones create in Ukraine. It is the most common counterargument I receive when saying that drones require a paradigm shift in military thinking.

"But while no one disputes that Europe needs to do more, the focus on how much is spent instead of what it is spent on is harmful. It distracts from what Europe should really be focusing on: capability development and interoperability." Great essay (with helpful #s) by @alanderminna.bsky.social

Apocryphally, during the Cold War the closer German farmers were to the border and 2nd Guards Tank Army, the less they complained about NATO exercises tearing up their (generously-compensated) crops. That the same attitude doesn’t prevail today is a failure of both understanding and communication.

Exactly. The best way to help Ukriane's democracy is to give them the weapons they need to win the war so martial law can be lifted and there can be elections.

"Russia’s war in Ukraine is not only transforming the battlefield, it is also rewriting the rules of battlefield medicine." David Kirichenko

"It is too easy, more than three years into this terrible war, to call to mind dinner parties, academic conferences, weddings, where memory folds and unfolds to admit a shadow, because someone who was there, and who should still be with us, has been killed." snyder.substack.com/p/guest-host...

"In Europe, late is nevertheless better than never, so my advice to all European countries is: if you can’t be like Finland, then be like Denmark."

Not flashy or 'go-boom' but still very important for defense: a potential backup/alternative to GPS www.wsj.com/articles/the...