Highly recommend @drjademcglynn.bsky.social's Substack, this week on still-lacking European preparedness for Russian drone (and other) warfare: smalldeedsbigwar.substack.com/p/agog

russian "flag-planting" (знаменная тактика) has evolved from a traditional military convention into a distinct psychological warfare tactic. In highly contested gray zones, russian forces increasingly prioritize sneaking into positions solely to hoist a flag, record it, and retreat or die. 🧵 1/9

Eventually, attention will return to ending the war on Ukraine. If and when there is a ceasefire, the biggest danger for Europe is that its leaders may confuse a pause in the fighting with an end to the war. A ceasefire will be a race to rearm, and it is still vital that Russia should not win it.

France has inherited its uniquie legal right to possess nuclear weapons due to historic contingencies. If they begin making demands like this, it will be impossible to build a European nuclear deterrence based on France. But France should be interested in preserving the non-proliferation system too.

@anderspucknielsen.dk was one of the few who called Russia's full scale invasion correctly -- his matrix of predictions here for Putin's dwindling options in Ukraine is well worth a watch

Ukrainian journalist Viktoriia Roshchyna was abused, starved, tortured, and humiliated in Russian captivity. Then they fractured her skull and stabbed her to death.

Months after Ukraine’s morale hit a nadir and its allies despaired, the country’s turnaround has challenged the long-held conventional wisdom that Russia’s bigger army can outlast Kyiv’s — boosting Ukrainians’ self-assurance to a level not seen in years. My story with comrade @maxseddon.bsky.social.

“The Pope’s encyclical […] correctly identifies that the immediate threat is not a sentient supercomputer, but a ‘culture of power’ that degrades human dignity, outsources cognitive agency, and leaves individuals powerless against algorithmic paternalism.”

Quotes and/or summaries can't do it justice -- a must-read.

Estonia reminding us again that it plans to NOT be next (WSJ gift link) www.wsj.com/world/europe...

Yes, russia is repeating their pre-invasion propaganda playbook, this time targeting the Baltics. But that scenario map is incomplete. Correction: #FlipTheNarrative

The psychological war is the only one Russia can win. And the softest target as ever is the White House.

"'As crappy as things look, we’ll make it work,' says the senior intelligence source. 'I have this strange sense, this confidence, that, I don’t know, God loves Ukraine.'” (gift link) www.economist.com/europe/2026/...

Anne Keast-Butler, GCHQ's director, said today that "new intelligence" shows that "almost half a million Russian soldiers have been killed" in the Ukraine war. That is a remarkable number—not least because SIS' Richard Moore gave a figure of 250,000 Russians killed just eight months ago.

WSJ on Putin's temptation to attack Europe in order to excuse a full-scale mobilization to double down in Ukraine. With casualties at 35k/month, current Russian recruitment can't keep up (gift link): www.wsj.com/world/europe...

There is no such thing as Russian ‘retaliatory strikes’, remember, they’re just regular strikes

The American-led negotiations in Ukraine prolonged the war by encouraging Putin. The Russians dangled ludicrous business"deals" in front of Witkoff and Kushner who were too gullible to understand that they were being manipulated. Good to hear the US has abandoned this failed policy.

The crazy part of this is that a couple years ago, the US increasing its military presence in Greenland would’ve been celebrated by Europeans as a strong signal of allied solidarity. Now, it’s seen as a serious threat to Greenland’s (future) sovereignty, rightly so.

A few days ago Xi asked Trump if their countries could overcome the Thucydides Trap. Not since George W. invoked democratic peace theory to justify invading Iraq has an obscure political science concept been put to such productive misuse. new post

I like math: stefankorshak.substack.com/p/may-15-202...

Great read: "Conflict prediction markets are the logical endpoint of a culture that has already financialized everything else. But when you try to financialize reality itself don’t be surprised when the market starts making the news instead of predicting it."

It’s a mistake to think that Trump’s discard for the rules-based order is good for the revanchist Russian regime (or for China for that matter). Having predictable rules enabled Russia to break them when it saw fit - or occasionally, to invoke them. Having no rules to break is a disadvantage.

"I did not speak russian to the russians I encountered on the street and in stores. They looked at me as if I was stupid. Some, always women, called me a fascist; others referred to my mother tongue as the language of dogs"

Excellent thread.

Can we stop focusing on single statements and pretend they influence US policy? Trump wants to reduce US support for European defence. Merz’s statements (or any other) are a pretext, not the cause. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... How Germany’s Merz torpedoed his plan to contain Trump

A few thoughts on the @istories.bsky.social story about "a report by an intelligence service of a European Union country on the real situation in the Kremlin and the condition of Vladimir Putin." 🧵 1) The basic idea that Putin is more concerned about his personal security seems plausible. 1/10

Calling it “techno-fascism” feels radical. It isn’t – it is imprecise, and imprecision is a luxury we cannot afford. What techno-oligarchy is doing to humanity goes beyond what fascism ever attempted. Eight points on a threat we are not yet naming correctly. shekhovtsov.substack.com/p/worse-than...

What's wrong with these people? — "Russia is losing 30-35,000 soldiers every month. It's brutal. The U.S. cannot be the only one calling for this to end. We need our European allies to also put pressure and join us." Yeah, let's all go out and save the Russian soldiers. 🤦‍♂️

Some thoughts on the United States ending plans to deploy a Long-Range Fires battalion to Europe: I am somewhat less alarmed about what this means for Germany and Europe. 1/6

Another must-read from @christopherjm.ft.com and the FT: '"I know what a wounded man sounds like when he dies in your arms,” she told me. She knew she could not get her friends back. “But I could get my revenge."' giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Pulling troops out of Europe? Not a smart move…I know, because I was involved the last time we did it. My latest in @thebulwark.com www.thebulwark.com/p/the-last-t...

"...Leon Battista Alberti famously pointed out that only a tyrant needs a fortress, ideally removed from a republic’s city center; a popular ruler could afford to have a rather open edifice... Many members of the Trump administration live on military bases..."

Interesting read on the discussion about what experts got wrong about Russia's invasion of Ukraine. I agree with Kofman that Russia did worse than expected in the initial invasion because their plan was flawed, but I don't agree that it was on a knife-edge. Hostomel was not *that* decisive.

Periodic reminder that while US soldiers in Germany certainly contribute to our security, that’s not their primary role in most cases. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Donald Trump launches review of US troops in Germany

An important read

Important read: "[...] leftists and liberals had to hold their noses to support Magyar – but they did so, for the sake of restoring democracy. Elsewhere, the centre-right has rejected making similar sacrifices; instead, its leaders have been increasingly willing to ally with the far right."

"the devastating defeat in Kidal has exposed Russia’s failure to stabilise Mali and has called into question both the future of its African military adventurism and survival of the pro-Russian government in Bamako, the country’s capital." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Day 1528 of my 3 day war. It's going so well that if even one Ukrainian drone shows up, it will out number my tanks at the "victory" day parade. I remain a master strategist.

Less concerned that Trump said Ukraine when he meant Iran than that he apparently thinks Putin "would like to be of help" in Iran. Russia is indeed "of help" in the Iran war, just not to the US.

Good long read on Europe’s reactions to German rearmament. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... Germany re-arms: what does it mean for Europe?

Policymakers and the UK public need to be clear that this is a sustained campaign that's being going on for years now; that it's part of a much wider campaign against European societies, using the same methods and with the same objectives; and that it's not going to go away.

Extremely tired of war games with Baltic scenarios that don’t take into account the Baltic states’ national forces and defence plans. 15k Russians won’t be the end of NATO because Lithuanians can take care of them even without outside help.

"The key to the puzzle lies in views of war and its imminence. If Europe really does face an attack by Russia, nothing matters more than locking Ukraine in as a partner." (gift link) www.economist.com/internationa...

Officials at the Kaitsepolitseiamet (Kapo), Estonia’s internal security service, told the FT that European governments should be faster and more aggressive in calling out russian-backed attacks, and use the courts as much as possible to deter further recruitment efforts. www.ft.com/content/3415...

Beautifully written piece. "the best war oratory is not actually about war. It is about peace. People hear it and think not merely of the lives that might be lost, but of a way of life that might be: they fear for culture, for democracy, for decency." Gift link: www.economist.com/culture/2026...

40y ago the disaster at the Chornobyl Power Plant marked one of the gravest nuclear disasters in human history. Its true toll, long obscured by Soviet secrecy, has only become clearer over time. www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/stateme...

Glad to receive this in my inbox once more -- cogent analysis from @alanderminna.bsky.social as always, and some very revealing numbers on mobilization potential across European countries (Estonia at 230k!)

“Since the start of 2025, the defense ministry approved some 40 new robots; by the end of last year, some 15,000 were supplied to the army, Fedirko said. In November, 67 units were using them; by March that had jumped to 167.” www.politico.eu/article/insi...

This is what Ukraine is fighting for. 📹:jstolvt/TikTok