Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i Aftenposten om USAs signaler om mulig gjenopptakelse av atomtesting, og hva slike uttalelser kan bety for internasjonal sikkerhet og arbeidet med å overvåke kjernevåpenprøvesprengninger: www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...

I've been diving into the recent RAND report on how to design a ceasefire agreement between Russia & Ukraine. The key message: the structure and components of an agreement matters. Political will is necessary, but probably not sufficient. 🧵 www.rand.org/pubs/researc...

War crimes alert as food runs out in besieged Sudan city www.bbc.com/news/article...

Thanks for a very generous review of my book in @armscontrolnow.bsky.social by @naomiegel.bsky.social: "Extensively researched, with rich archival evidence and interviews ... The Struggle for Abolition is an important contribution." www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-06/...

Interesting; Fortunately Grok got it right on the question whether the seismic event in Pakistan could have been a nuclear test (no!)- but it was based on wrong facts 😰 Kjølv Egeland at NORSAR explains why this is dangerous:

The spread of hearsay about nuclear or other strategic weapons tests is not new—but novel digital technologies have added a new layer of complexity to the grapevine. "When Grok is wrong: The risks of AI chatbots spreading misinformation in a crisis," by @kjolvegeland.bsky.social.

"Social media and AI-powered large language models certainly offer valuable sources of information. But they also risk facilitating the spread of misinformation more widely—and faster—than traditional modes of communication."

Seniorforsker ved NORSAR @kjolvegeland.bsky.social skriver i dag i @morgenbladet.no om terrorbalansen mellom nabolandene og atomvåpenstatene India og Pakistan: www.morgenbladet.no/aktuelt/uten...

Only just managed to read this in full, and as expected, it’s a great piece pulling together all the relevant literature. Give this a read! 👇

A classic: US: "Please, take care of your defense yourself!" EU: "Alright, we will build up our European defense industry and only buy European!" US: "NOOO, NOT LIKE THAT!" It will be interesting to see how this plays out this time, now that the US's reputation in Europe is in the toilet.

🚨New open access paper of mine on the connections between climate change and the politics of nuclear arms and disarmament. Thanks to @erc.europa.eu and @belfercenter.bsky.social ‘Rethinking Nuclear Deterrence’ program for the support. academic.oup.com/isr/article/...

Pending…

Interview with me and @russianforces.org in Norwegian outlet @nettavisen.no @thomaspaust.bsky.social on French nuclear policy and European security. Would Paris sacrifice Paris for Narva? t.co/qWVqDQRFmT

My Slate column on the lies, distortions, and one maybe-bright spot in the foreign policy section of Trump's speech. slate.com/news-and-pol...

The €500 billion special fund only mentions 'energy infrastructure' - nothing about renewables/climate. This could change, as the Greens will have to support it. But it is yet another example of how drastically political priorities have changed since the Green Deal and 'green recovery' initiatives.

So, Zombiedebate about European nuclear deterrence it is. It's simple: 1. There won't be a European nuclear deterrence, as long as there is no true political union - so, very unlikely. 2. National nuclear programs will take too long and consume ressources badly needed for conventional defense.

"[Putin] is entirely in the driving seat despite the US spending the week alienating its own allies, giving Russia nearly all of what it wanted, buying Putin’s warped view of history, and Trump can’t even guarantee a meeting. The art of the deal, indeed."

I’m seeing lots of people claiming Europe is fine since the MAGA crowd hasn’t withdrawn the nuclear umbrella.

We’re lucky in Europe that the defense industry is much less influential here than in the US. Means we can buy stuff we actually need rather than the stuff the industry wants to produce.

But will the deep state let him do it? www.newsweek.com/donald-trump...

New article on the concepts of trust and confidence in regime creation and sustainment. Relevant to conversations about verification, institution building. #NukeSky journals.sagepub.com/eprint/ZRWZR...

🚨 4️⃣ positions to be filled! Join us in Frankfurt/Darmstadt for exciting work in #nuclear arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament at the crossroads of #science and policy! DLs mid-December and later, vary per position. Working language English. And we move into new fancy office spaces! 🚨

New publication - read the latest article from our colleague Dr Jan Ruzicka, co-authored with Campbell Craig and @kjolvegeland.bsky.social on US foreign policy and the Non-Proliferation Treaty www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Contrary to expert predictions, the end of the Cold War and onset of unipolarity did not lead to an increase in nuclear proliferation or the collapse of the NPT. Quite the contrary, longtime holdout joined the nonproliferation regime and the NPT was indefinitely and unconditionally extended. Why?

New article out today with Campbell Craig and Jan Ruzicka on nonproliferation and unipolarity 🚨 www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

The new nuclear "Basic Principles" just dropped (h/t @dvsteff.bsky.social). The key change is that it's the aggression that "poses critical threat to the sovereignty and/or territorial integrity" instead of "puts the very existence of the state in jeopardy" publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/000...

In a new article for International Affiars, former CISAC fellow Benoît Pelopidas and colleague @kjolvegeland.bsky.social offer an analysis of the Nuclear Risk Reduction 'agenda.'

Very interesting read by Benoît Pelopidas, Heba Taha, and Tom Vaughan in the Journal of Strategic Studies on 'nonproliferation timescaping' - how the proliferation frame became hegemonic and distorted understanding of key nuclear events in the 1990s. www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10....

In which I explain why all the Republicans hyperventilating that Secretary Austin's unexplained multi-day absence completely compromised our ability to launch (or respond to) a nuclear attack have no idea what they are talking about.

The false promise of nuclear risk reduction academic.oup.com/ia/article/1...

The COP agreement “changes nothing” for Norway, says the Norwegian energy minister. The richest country in the world will continue drilling oil for the foreseeable future.

The Norwegian Auditor General voices sharp criticism of the integration of F-35 into the Norwegian armed forces - the country's largest ever military acquisition - relating to cost increases, lack technicians and personnel, delays. www.nrk.no/trondelag/ri...

Russia has withdrawn its ratification of the #CTBT. With the deployment of nukes to Belarus, Russia has now renounced both of its traditional claims to moral superiority over the US in the disarmament context. A diplomatic own goal as well as a setback for arms control.

Stormaktene børster støvet av gamle testanlegg. Og Russland trekker ratifikasjonen av Prøvestansavtalen. www.aftenposten.no/meninger/kro...

Duma speaker says US asked Russia not to revoke ratification of nuclear test ban treaty

My colleagues at NORSAR have detected a seismic signal consistent with an explosion in the Eastern Baltic Sea near the #Balticconnector pipeline. www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/se...

This looks like good news (given the circumstances) - Russia will not be canceling the entire ratification law, so the bureaucratic structures (and presumably IMS) will not be affected

What is the best work on alternative climate futures? I.e. alternative political and institutional responses/orders/formations etc. I’m aware of Climate Leviathan and work by @anthonyburke.bsky.social. What else?

How are contested practices legitimated in international and domestic politics? link.springer.com/article/10.1...

In what ways do climate change and defense policy intersect? www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....