Finally posted the last of a four-part series that I'd been working on since around the start of January, I think. This last part took the longest to complete, but here it is. Get it while it's hot! substack.probablecause.media/p/the-volunt...

I don’t think anyone acquainted with the Epstein files can deny that the Republican Party is sincerely committed to putting children to work.

“Many have said civic virtue and sacrifice for the common good are dead. Those commentators have been proven wrong. The people of Minnesota and across the nation have rallied in opposition to “the harbingers of reappearing tyranny and oppression.” www.thebulwark.com/p/american-v...

Finally, a new post on my Substack. The last of the four-part series I've been working on since around the start of January, I think. substack.probablecause.media/p/the-volunt...

So eloquent. Everyone needs to watch this entire speech by this young woman who ICE attempted to assassinate with the blessing of our current administration. youtu.be/qUV9AiMfrs0?...

Crucial from @brianbeutler.bsky.social: Anyone selling warehouses to ICE for camps should prepare for video leaking of "people inside being tortured." They'll have to answer for atrocities "in their communities." On the pod we went big on Trump's new vulnerabilities: newrepublic.com/article/2061...

He cannot be clearer. There is no difference to him between bombing random fishermen on boats and shooting Americans protesters in the face

California chose treatment over punishment. Courts are still saying no. Mental Health Diversion is being denied for reasons the law doesn’t permit — and appellate courts keep reversing it. substack.probablecause.media/p/treatment-...

Courts don’t discover truth at leisure. They price risk under pressure. Why market metaphors keep explaining criminal defense better than legal rhetoric does: substack.probablecause.media/p/seeing-the...

Shameful, nonsensical whataboutism from a guy who’s supposed to be a serious establishment Republican.

That, I believe, is part of the point for him.

So vicious it's delicious.

Stories compress uncertainty. Evidence resists it. Why courts and markets fail the same way — and why interruption matters more than explanation. substack.probablecause.media/p/there-are-...

Friday, for the first time in my career, a client's family member said, "You're just like the Lincoln Lawyer". At the _end_ of the day, I got a text from a friend who lives in Texas saying that her husband called me Mickey Haller, the Lincoln Lawyer. substack.probablecause.media/p/testimony-...

Is this a trick question?

If you are a foreign president who commits crimes overseas, America will come get you, arrest you, and lock you up. But if you are a US president who commits crimes here in the United States, America will give you immunity from prosecution, reelect you, and bribe you with billions of dollars.

Of all the competitive authoritarian developments of the past year I think the fall of CBS News is among the most chilling. That this can happen to easily and so quickly freaks me the fuck out.

The GOP is dominated by gutter trash bigots.

AI language can sound certain without being grounded. Here’s why that matters in court and in reasoning: substack.probablecause.media/p/rhetoric-w...

Confidence is not comprehension. “AI Crutchery” looks at how LLMs are becoming substitutes for thinking — and why fluency without understanding is especially dangerous in law.

If any of you read my posts on Substack, a like and/or a comment and/or a share would be greatly appreciated. I need all the help I can get since Google AI has been destroying my small business.

ICE has pushed into every space where people are most vulnerable — hospitals, schools, polling places, newsrooms, tribal communities, courthouses. This isn’t a collection of anomalies. It’s a policy architecture built on fear. substack.probablecause.media/p/parasites-...

Justice Jackson to Solicitor General Sauer (just now, in Trump v. Slaughter arguments):

Oops www.propublica.org/article/trum...

How very not surprising 👇

I honestly believe that Dickwad Donnie is potentially more evil than any other evil person who came before him. It’s not totally clear yet, but I think it will be soon.

"We are not the party of participation trophies..." I hate to break this to you, but...

The social worker murdered at San Francisco General Hospital dedicated his life to the community, including the LGBTQ community. Rest in peace — & loving energy to his partner & other family & friends. Too many health care workers are at risk of violence & we must do more to protect them.

I'm guessing it will be because he snorted what he thought was his favorite drug, but it turned out to be a combination of fentanyl and Ebola virus.

Tomorrow. Can't wait until tomorrow? Check out my other articles on substack.probablecause.media now!

ICE is not any part of what the United States has ever stood for. (It's very much a part of what the Confederate States stood for. It's an attempt to resurrect the Ghosts of Losers.) Tomorrow, on substack.probablecause.media I will explain this more fully. Meanwhile, loads of other posts to read!

The president who watched Jan. 6 violence on TV and responded to Kevin McCarthy's desperate call from inside the Capitol with "well, Kevin, I guess these people are more upset about the election than you" doesn't think death threats against anyone even a little in his way is a bad thing? Huh.

A man named Carlos Roberto Montoya Valdez died running into freeway traffic after ICE descended on day laborers at a Home Depot in Monrovia. His community's response: "Scrape ICE out of their stores." Publishing tomorrow: substack.probablecause.media

Ever wonder what really happens in a felony case? From arrest to sentencing, the California felony process is a maze — bail, prelims, plea deals, trial tax, and more. I walk you through every step in my latest video. 📺 Watch: youtu.be/lSkam-CtwPo #CriminalDefense #CourtroomInsights #CaliforniaLaw

Fight like it matters! Because it does!

Mamdani already making housing affordability happen.

New YouTube video. Includes cameo appearance of "The Rick Horowitz Band" since the Rolling Stones were not available. youtu.be/FckCz3uIGKM

More escalation of violence against Jews: After violent attacks on Jews in Colorado, Pennsylvania, DC & San Francisco, now, in Australia, a synagogue set on fire with Jews inside & an ambush at an Israeli restaurant with death chants. It’s a direct result of the normalization of antisemitism.

Someone prove this wrong.

A timeline of the catastrophic Texas floods : NPR www.npr.org/2025/07/05/n...

"forcibly admitted her to the university’s psychiatric hospital" The word you're looking for is COMmitted, not ADmitted. "Admitted" implies a voluntary entry; the word for forcible confinement in a psychiatric hospital is "committed". You know, like a crime.

Well, you could also make sure to rebuild the infrastructure and systems that warn us of such events which DOGE and the President unconstitutionally dismantled while you stood by with your thumb up your ass.

I have friends who say they’re glad these people are out in the open now “so we know who they are.” I prefer when they were afraid to come out from under their rocks.

spending the 4th trolling the president of el salvador on the internet, as the founders intended

just casually drops the facade about other countries paying tariffs and admits it’s American companies who pay them