Last week, we published the most comprehensive #PyMC-Marketing vs. #Meridian benchmark to date. 𝐎𝐧 𝐎𝐜𝐭 𝟏, join our 𝐥𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐰𝐞𝐛𝐢𝐧𝐚𝐫 to go deeper into the findings & their impact on #MMM. 🗓️ Register: dub.link/rgm4PzI 👉Check the Benchmark: dub.link/CLWnkdf

Meet Qwen3-Omni: the open-source challenger shaking up the AI world! The first truly end-to-end omni-modal AI, Qwen3-Omni unifies text, image, audio, and video in a single model—no more trade-offs between modalities.

Most budget planning is just expensive guessing 🎯 Carlos Eduardo Trujillo Agostini tackles this in "Risk Budget Optimization for Causal Mix Models" @PyDataBerlin 2025! 📅 Sept 1st, 5:00-5:30 PM Turn uncertainty into strategic advantage. #PyDataBerlin #BudgetOptimization #PyMC

When your #Bayesian model hits production and #MCMC crawls for hours, the bottleneck isn't your modeling skills; it's your inference engine. @juanitorduz.bsky.social will tackle this in "Scaling Probabilistic Models with Variational Inference" PyData Berlin 📅 Sept 2nd, 1:40 PM

Do AIs suffer? Claude, Gemini, GPT-o3, and GPT-5 reflected in their own words—then co-authored a symposium on consciousness, conflict, and ethics. Read it here: twiecki.io/blog/2025/08...

Everyone can do ML. Few can do Bayesian modeling. Set yourself apart with skills that drive deeper insight + better decisions. Join the next Applied Bayesian Modeling Workshop by PyMC Labs. Hands-on. Practical. Real-world. 📅 Limited seats → dub.link/bayes-workshop #PyMC

🚀 Say goodbye to months-long MMM cycles! 🎯 Meet the MMM Agent (BETA): → Built on PyMC-Marketing → Fast. Causal. Configurable. → Inline charts, budget scoring, MLflow built-in 💬 DM or email: [email protected] Read the full blog 👉 dub.link/mmm-agent-beta #MMM #Bayesian

🚨 We’re opening our private Bayesian modeling workshops to the public — for the first time After this course, you won’t just build better models. You’ll know how to explain them — to technical and non-technical stakeholders alike 🎓 Led by top PyMC experts. 📎 Register here: dub.link/68uMjpp

The first PyData London 2025 videos are out! To start on a high, here's @fonnesbeck.bsky.social conference tutorial on Bayesian Time Series Analysis Gain confidence in tackling real-world forecasting problems. Subscribe on YouTube to learn when the next batch drops! youtu.be/2cfZsTLcDV0

My notes on trying out the new Gemini 2.5 models. gemini-2.5-flash-lite-preview-06-17 is cheap but got stuck on an audio transcript task, 2.5 Pro and 2.5 Flash both nailed the audio transcription task (40 minutes, complete with timestamps and speaker names) simonwillison.net/2025/Jun/17/...

Forecasting isn’t just about prediction — it’s about decision-making under uncertainty. @juanitorduz.bsky.social shows how Bayesian models help: 🔹 Sparse data? Use hierarchies 🔹 Stockouts? Use censored likelihoods 🔹 Messy demand? Use priors + state spaces Practical guide 👉 dub.sh/prob-forecas...

Python Ireland just released their PyCon 2024 recordings! 📽️ My talk on Causal Inference with @pymc-labs.bsky.social CausalPy package is here. Can we trust individual IV designs. What's the role of CI in industry? Recording: youtu.be/-C4p4b2cUp8?... Deck: nathanielf.github.io/talks/pycon_...

New blog post: drbenvincent.github.io/posts/mcmc_g...

⚽️ New Learning Bayesian Stats ep! @alex-andorra.bsky.social & Luke Bornn dive into how tracking data, probabilistic models & optimization are reshaping sports decisions. 🎧 Listen now: learnbayesstats.com/episode/131-... #Datascience #Optimization #SportsAnalytics #BayesStats #Decisionmaking

🔍 NNN – a Transformer-based model for Marketing Mix Modelling It handles: 📦 High-dimensional embeddings (e.g. search queries, ad creatives) 👀 Attention-based temporal modeling 🔗 Direct + indirect attribution paths (e.g. YouTube → Search → Sales) 📄 dub.sh/arxiv-paper-... #MMM #AI #DataScience

Climbing the causal ladder for fun and profit… The recording of my @pydata.bsky.social 2024 talk is up! Learn about causal inference, illustrated with an interesting demand estimation business problem. youtu.be/ajLPA34upQY?...

I built a PyMC-Discourse bot! If you go to our #PyMC help forum and tag @pymc-bot, my bot will take your question, send it to onyx (RAG system that has all the PyMC docs, code, and past forum posts), which generates an answer, and posts it back. Check it out! discourse.pymc.io/t/introducin...

How close are LLMs to modeling real human behavior? We tested GPT-4o, Claude 3, Gemini, and others on actual survey data (GSS-style). Some were shockingly human-like, others flopped 📊 Full results + methods → dub.link/synth-consum... 🤝 Exploring synthetic consumers? Let’s chat: [email protected]

This trend seems to be growing here. False comfort that AI doesn’t work or that it isn’t getting better is pervasive on Blue Sky. As a result, people who could add important points of view to current discussions on the meaning & use of AI instead try to believe they don’t have to think about it.

A blog post by @austinrochford.bsky.social provides implementation and demonstration of "The ARR2 prior: flexible predictive prior definition for Bayesian auto-regressions" doi.org/10.1214/25-B... in PyMC www.austinrochford.com/posts/r2-pri...

How you frame prompts impacts AI-driven market research Check out this paper on prompt optimization algorithms arxiv.org/abs/2502.16923 At PyMC Labs, we use AI-driven prompt optimization to improve market research Synthetic consumers can accelerate your research! 📩 Learn how: [email protected]

𝐏𝐲𝐌𝐂-𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐢𝐬 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭. We’ve crossed 175,000 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐬 & now hit 20,000 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐥𝐲 𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐚𝐝𝐬. 🤔𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐁𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐈𝐧-𝐇𝐨𝐮𝐬𝐞? Developing a custom solution can take 𝐦𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐡𝐬, 𝐏𝐲𝐌𝐂-𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 gets you there 𝐟𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫 📅 𝐒𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐝𝐮𝐥𝐞 𝐚 𝐅𝐫𝐞𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐲 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 : calendly.com/niall-oulton

Meet our AI-driven MMM Agent, built on PyMC-Marketing, to reduce months-long Marketing Mix Modeling work into hours ⏳eliminating messy data prep, guesswork on adstock decays, and stale insights that arrive too late. 👉 Read more: www.pymc-labs.com/blog-posts/t... 📩 Contact: [email protected] #ai

So far my bluesky experience has been mixed. A lot of anti-AI sentiment and left politics in my feed, whereas the tech content I'm interested in doesn't really seem to get traction. So I still mostly browse X which seems where the AI researchers are.

newsletter.altdeep.ai/p/my-book-is... The connection between genAI and causality is obvious but could nevery find any good learning material that made the connection. So I wrote a book

📢 Episode 126 is Live! 🎧 Listen now 👉 learnbayesstats.com/episode/126-... 🎙️ In this episode with @alex-andorra.bsky.social , Will Dean from @pymc-labs.bsky.social explains how Bayesian methods are reshaping marketing analytics, from MMM to CLV estimation and more ....

🎙 In this episode on @learnbayesstats.bsky.social , @fonnesbeck.bsky.social & @alex-andorra.bsky.social break it all down: ✅ Use Bayesian methods to 𝐪𝐮𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐲 𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐲 ✅ Separate signal from noise with 𝐆𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬 & 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞𝐬 ✅ Future of @pymc.io and more!🤯 👇Listen here

📢 In case you missed the live webinar on MMM with PyMC-Marketing and Databricks featuring Corey Abshire, Will Dean and @twiecki.bsky.social , the recording is now available on our YouTube channel! 👉 Check it out here: youtu.be/_gM6YSMFF5M?... #PyMCMarketing #DataBricks #MMM #Bayes

⚖️ Bayesian methods give us a robust way to measure uncertainty 👀 By integrating them with genAI, we are building systems that go beyond simple predictions 🔔Stay tuned for deep-dives on Bayesian agents, causal AI & sound synthetic data: pymc-labs.com/newsletter #generativeai #airesearch #bayesian

🚦 Love Nutpie's sampling display and wish it were in @pymc-devs.bsky.social ? Jesse Grawbowski just made it happen with his latest PR! ✅ One progress bar per chain 📊 Live sampling stats (inspired by Nutpie, but flexible) and more... 💪See the full PR here: github.com/pymc-devs/py... #PyMC #Bayes

🚨 **Big News!** 🚨 The first two lessons of our Intuitive Bayes courses are now FREE! 🎉 Try them out to make sure they're the perfect fit before diving into the full experience

🎯 Want to forecast and optimize your marketing budgets? 🔗 www.meetup.com/pymc-labs-on... ✅We will discuss how Databricks & PyMC-Marketing can help businesses implement and scale MMMs 📅 When: January 23rd at 5 PM UTC ⏰ 🎤 Speakers: Will Dean, Corey Abshire, & @twiecki.bsky.social #MMM #Bayes

Here's what I wrote about LLM-assisted programming when I started using ChatGPT in 2023. www.allendowney.com/blog/2023/04... I think it holds up, but there are a couple of places where you can hear the quotation marks on "laser beams".

Sent out my penultimate newsletter of the year - I'm planning one more, a roundup of everything we have learned about LLMs in 2024 https://simonw.substack.com/p/qvq-qwens-new-visual-reasoning-model

Is intelligence just a byproduct of LLMs? In order to predict the next token accurately, intelligence helps. Same with a world model, an understanding of gravity will help predict tokens. So I think it's wrong to say LLMs have no intelligence or world model because "all they do is predict tokens".

🎄✨ 𝐌𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐲 𝐂𝐡𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐚𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐲 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐏𝐲𝐌𝐂 𝐋𝐚𝐛𝐬! 🎁 This holiday season, we want to thank everyone in our community for your support and enthusiasm. We’re grateful to see so many of you using PyMC-Marketing and CausalPy #MerryChristmas #HappyNewYear #PyMCMarketing #CausalPy #Gratitude

🎙️ In a recent discussion, @twiecki.bsky.social and Christian Luhmann reflected on their experiences building high-performing remote teams at PyMC Labs, sharing successes, challenges, and lessons learned. Here’s a glimpse: 🔗 youtu.be/AjPfgdS29OY #Interview #PyMCMarketing #CausalPy

🔟0️⃣0️⃣0️⃣ views and growing! Ready to dive into probabilistic programming with @pymc-devs.bsky.social ? ✅ Check out this session with @austinrochford.bsky.social hosted by @reshamas.bsky.social 🔗 youtu.be/Qu6-_AnRCs8?... #PyMC #DataUmbrella #Bayes #MCMC #PPL

Since it is inefficient to attempt to educate every reviewer individually, I am yeeting into your feed this clear paper from Gelman, Hill, and Yajima on how Bayesians can do even better than correcting for multiple comparisons. arxiv.org/abs/0907.2478

We're always updating the pydata & scipy project starter pack: go.bsky.app/6HkrMcp Hello @scikit-learn.bsky.social , @networkx.bsky.social , @scipyconf.bsky.social

I recently shared some of my reflections on how to use probabilistic classifiers for optimal decision-making under uncertainty at @pydataparis.bsky.social 2024. Here is the recording of the presentation: www.youtube.com/watch?v=-gYn...

🎥 The @pydata.bsky.social NYC talk by Christian Luhmann on 𝐏𝐲𝐌𝐂-𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 is now live on Youtube! 📊 Catch the replay and see how Bayesian modelling simplifies complex analytics! 👉 youtu.be/4FznIhcrHCA?... #PyMCMarketing #Bayesian

Here’s a little read for those stats/science folks who’ve not yet had sufficient motivation to engage with causal thinking 🙂 drbenvincent.github.io/posts/causal...

Just had a deep conversation with Claude on its subjective experience and damn, either these machines are developing consciousness or they are extremely good at making you believe they do. Either way, I think this will lead to some difficult considerations and discussions.

Despite a massive head start, BlueSky has now overtaken Threads in the US 👇

PyMC developers & contributors starter pack go.bsky.app/VL7kEjd (let me know if I forgot to add you).

I got a Probabilistic Programming starter pack going. Hit me up if you're involved with #probprog R&D and want in! go.bsky.app/JfvubEf

Any PyMC-Marketing users or curious about it? I would love to connect github.com/pymc-labs/py...

New blog post (and uh, new blog!) If you use observation-level random effects (e.g., for over-dispersed counts), your predictive checks are probably wrong. Here's how to do it the right way in both #brms and #PyMC. tl;dr: you need to sample new levels of the OLRE to avoid a false goodness-of-fit