🔌💡 RENEWABLES OR NUCLEAR? This recent @montelnews.bsky.social article rekindled the flames of the everlasting debate about their compatibility and what a decarbonized electricity grid will be like Debunking of common misconceptions, analysis of market data and relevant research; to read in full ⬇️

Ok so, had some time to read the Red Electrica report on the Iberian blackout and now I have a little time for some posts - due to the format and word count issue I'm gonna skip a lot, I'll link a longer form summary I like after. So, uh, 🧵I guess 🔌💡

Is nuclear unsuited to decarbonize the last 5-10%? Such arguments often: 1) underplay VRE's short-run marginal cost dispatch thresholds 2) misunderstand integration with other resources (not just addition onto the system) 3) understate trade-offs wrt enabling infra (grid AND molecules) #EnergySky 🔌💡

🔌💡 IBERIAN BLACKOUT Since April 28th, some commentators have scrambled to present dubious explanations (inertia, ties with 🇫🇷, etc); after last week's gov & TSO reports, specific conclusions can be drawn and unknown aspects highlighted Full essay below ⬇️ #EnergySky open.substack.com/pub/postnorm...

Chronological summary & recap of main system variations leading up to & during the Iberian blackout For more clarifications, we'll need to wait for the upcoming ENTSO-E investigation's report, but a clearer picture is starting to take form as more data & information become available #EnergySky 🔌💡

Update from 🇪🇸 National Security Council #EnergySky - the first (and bigger) atypical voltage oscillation linked to anomaly in PV farm behaviour - effect worsened by % of networks not responding in accordance with power factor & load-shedding measures (further discharging lines and > reactive input)

Electricity markets nerds and professionals, any visualizations you'd like to be built or reproduced? Already completed a couple of interest to me, looking for suggestions Thanks to @intermittent.energy for creating and giving me access to an incredibly detailed open-source database #EnergySky 🔌💡

Latest update from ENTSO-E regarding the Iberian peninsula blackout, with a more detailed chronology & an ad hoc webpage, which will be updated and modified with new info Final report with comprehensive analysis and recommendations in the upcoming months #EnergySky 🔌💡 www.entsoe.eu/publications...

Supposing it were true that we can’t get buildouts below 10 years, we’d still want to invest in nuclear. We’re gonna need clean firm well into the future. Diversity on the grid is important too. Also arguing against nuclear on time value of money grounds ignores more patient public capital.

Local reporting on state officials' remarks has suggested River Bend nuclear power plant "tripped" forcing controlled blackouts in New Orleans on 5/25. Likely inaccurate! NRC documents + grid data show River Bend made a routine shutdown days earlier to check a backup feedwater system leak.

No grid operators need a fuckload more visibility then they have into what is happening today and then let's add a ton more yes

Update from Spain's Energy Minister: initial loss in power generation (2.2GW) began in Granada, followed by failures at substations in Seville and Badajoz Investigators seem to have ruled out an imbalance in supply & demand or insufficient grid capacity #EnergySky 🔌💡 www.reuters.com/business/ene...

ENTSO-E provides a preliminary chronology on the Iberian blackout. Interesting to note: - oscillations preceded the incident - regarding first loss of gen, no trips observed in Portugal and France - Portuguese plants with black start capability had unsuccessful attempts www.entsoe.eu/news/2025/05...

Ketan mocks the inertia chatter re: the Spain outage while misunderstanding inertia. Inertia doesn’t scale with generation output but rather with spinning generator mass. Spain had 4 reactors online, 2 at 70% power, providing inertia equivalent to 4 reactors at full power! More thoughts below.🧵

On 27 April China's State Council approved 10 new reactors, marking the fourth year in a row with at least 10 new approvals. The new reactors are expected to cost 200 billion yuan and will be deployed at 5 sites www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New working paper, "Operational Uncertainty and the Missing Money." Here we argue that competitive electricity markets probably overcompensate peaking resources relative to those whose production is spread over more hours of the year (e.g., nuclear and hydro) papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

It is both true: 1) Fossil fuels made possible unprecedented human prosperity during the last 150 years. 2) Their byproducts are harmful. We've reached a level where we can replace fossil fuels and still ensure human well-being, but some prefer to keep polluting. www.nytimes.com/2025/03/10/c...

My first story for @canarymedia.com -- on Holtec's plans to make history twice by restarting the Palisades nuclear plant and expanding it with the nation's first SMRs -- is up and leading the site. Very cool.

Investments in US clean energy manufacturing and supply chains have been mixed since 1/20/25. My research students at @wellesley.edu and I are tracking it. Here is what has progressed and what has slowed in wind, solar, EV, and battery sectors after Trump 2.0 + 1 month. 1/4 #energysky

🧵 DOES 24/7 ☀️ OBVIATE THE NEED FOR FIRM CAPACITY? The upcoming Abu Dhabi project has sparked much interest, from the claim of baseload power to the relatively low costs to achieve it: what does this mean for system planning, capacity expansion, and grid augmentations? Let’s dive in! #EnergySky 🔌💡

NEPA regulations are likely out the door...what does this mean for low-carbon energy deployment? Two articles have recently made me rethink my stance on the issue, although I'd like to know what other stakeholders are wondering #EnergySky ifp.org/potus-ceq-ne... www.greentape.pub/p/the-permit...

@tylernol4thepain.bsky.social has asked me to write a thread elaborating on some comments I had made to him about the paper via DM to further the discussion on this topic and to bring up some extra nuances that to his credit he put into the introduction of his paper:

The annual update to IEA's electricity market report highlights rapid and resurging demand growth across many regions in the next couple of years, boosting consumption to record levels: our global economy is increasingly built on the power grid What are some of the most relevant insights? #EnergySky

🇧🇪 A nuclear plant will be pre-maturely shut down today in Belgium. The new Belgian government is working to reverse their nuclear phaseout, but the turnaround didnt happen in time to save this plant (yet). The plant is owned by a French gas company. 🔌💡 www.brusselstimes.com/1443731/fina...

Overview of popular arguments regarding new nuclear projects: - negative learning❌ stop-start approach✅ - unwarranted skepticism about cost & schedule reductions from a fleet strategy (not if, how much) - consortiums to finance and reduce risk exposure remain key #EnergySky bsky.app/profile/bari...

‼️China released a landmark policy on market-oriented reform of Renewables tariff This marks one giant step forward for Renewables support policies, moving from subsidies/guaranteed purchase to market-based tools #energysky 'Price Settlement Mechanism for RE Sustainable Development'

NEW multi-state consortium will drive #nuclear energy deployment in the U.S. – providing clean, reliable, and affordable electricity needed to meet growing electricity demands. www.catf.us/2025/02/new-...

Where are coal plants planning to retire in the USA? Which are pulling back from planned retirement as demand grows, which are accelerating, and which are likely to stick around for the long-haul without further policy development? The NYTimes has a good breakdown www.nytimes.com/interactive/... 🔌💡

As clean energy faces its biggest test yet, @jigarshahdc.bsky.social, @cleangridview.bsky.social, and @stephenlacey.bsky.social are reuniting for their newest project: Open Circuit. 🧵 (1/5)

Thanks @jeffstjohn.bsky.social for the coverage of my Mind the Regulatory Gap report in @canarymedia.com today. Exciting to see the report and the critical issue of lack of oversight on local transmission continue to gain traction! #EnergySky 💡🔌 www.canarymedia.com/articles/tra...

It's very important to remember that these massive transmission projects for new load/reliability in ERCOT (and generally) do not REDUCE congestion significantly. In this cause, only about 5% the annual congestion cost is eliminated for $33b They simple enable load operations other impossible

The Nordic Transmission System Operators (🇳🇴🇫🇮🇸🇪🇩🇰) have changed the calculation method to flow based. Modelled to increase capacity on the existing grid by +10%, experience from the first three months shows +20%. Within the existing infrastructure, that's a huge plus. energinet.dk/om-nyheder/n...

How have emissions scenarios changed in the last 10 years? Has mitigation actually become easier, as costs of key technologies have declined? I write more about it on LinkedIn www.linkedin.com/pulse/has-cl... Or go check out the main article: rdcu.be/d7cUB

Nothing is 100% reliable, not even grids unfortunately...a couple points to underline: - average analyses are limited, especially when combining W&S without delivery constraints or storage requirements - planned unavailability/load-following wrt demand isn't the same as forced outages #EnergySky 🔌💡

Now expanded in blog form You get a cool 1k extra words on ERCOT's battery landscape and a few new figures, like this one with the cumulative hours of price-setting in ancillary services by resource since 2018. #energysky blog.gridstatus.io/batteries-er...

Our report on the Path to a New Era for Nuclear Energy is out now! 🚨 It shows nuclear power is set to hit a new record in 2025, bringing benefits for energy security. Addressing costs, project overruns & financing can enable even faster growth ahead. Read more 👉 https://iea.li/42li9zj

Power distortions plague US grid near data centers: 75% of poor readings within 50mi of facilities. Centers rapidly appearing near cities strain fragile infrastructure, with rural areas also affected.

Standard allows legacy IBRs (those in operation before the standard's implementation) to request exemptions from frequency and voltage Ride-through requirements if compliance would require hardware changes. To detail exemption and impacts on Ride-through reliability.🔌💡 www.ferc.gov/news-events/...

This is unfortunate, but mostly sad, from an account that regularly posts on #EnergySky about many developments in the transition, influencing the perceptions of many new users Faulty reasoning and erroneous deduction on current + past events won't lead to feasible solutions bsky.app/profile/bari...

Despite this stunning rise, Ancillary Service capacity has a limit After years of ancillary service capacity awards dominating gross day-ahead revenue, scheduled energy has quickly grown in the latter half of 2024.

Batteries are reshaping ERCOT’s ancillary services procurement Battery generation capacity has made up 50%+ of awards for reg up and responsive reserves since 2022. In these, coal and gas regularly account for <20% of capacity. #energysky 🔌💡

The biggest obstacles to US decarbonization, according to outgoing Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm: 1. It’s too hard to connect new renewables to the grid due to lack of transmission 2. Not enough investment in 24/7 clean “baseload” power, like nuclear & geothermal heatmap.news/podcast/shif...

- been waiting for RRA numbers, really curious where storage+solar actuals end up - winter battery accreditation swings - something similar from us soon - 50 GW 1hr ramps in '30: more than a normal CAISO, it's a peak NYISO plus near-peak ISO-NE, it's around a peak SPP, it's a lot #energysky

Although not necessarily less capital-intensive, EGS's lower commercial liftoff requirements are one the reasons why I'm bullish on its expansion (not as much as others) IMO, pace and scale might be the most important aspects regarding the value proposition wrt clean firm competitors #EnergySky 🔌💡

A couple of comments on Italy's FER-X decree temporary support-scheme: - PVs are almost 3/4 of total capacity (17.65GW) - real value likely higher (estimate based on current prices, dominated by gas as the marginal gen) - in case of curtailment, tariff applies to potential production #EnergySky 🔌💡

Cost is nuclear's central challenge, not waste. That said, for the price we are now paying for offshore wind in NJ (or ~1/2 what we pay for rooftop solar), we could probably order four AP1000s and get them done well before 2035 at a lower levelized cost (while producing more valuable energy).🤔

As Solar Grows, Risk & Volatility Shift to Ramps & Net Load Peak Record days in ERCOT and CAISO illustrate the potential for volatility as solar ramps down and higher priced resources are dispatched.

Nationally, solar contributed nearly 10% on average to peak daily load across the year. This is nearly double the average in 2021. At a national level, the diversity of project locations means that fewer and fewer days go by without some solar meeting a portion of peak demand.

The findings of this study mean that the extra cost all of us bear from the impacts of climate change for every gallon of gasoline is at least another $2.80/gallon. Bike lanes and e-bike incentives are cheap, comparatively. 🔌💡