It feels like an insult to the notion of objective reality to invoke “experts” to weigh in on a numerical fact you can verify with a pocket calculator

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 A little too toasty Friday afternoon for dark-furred pups like "Lyza" to spend too much time outside — but she can hang out in the A/C at the East County Animal Shelter until someone adopts her happy face. Details here: www.alamedasheriff.gov/community/ad...

Debatable whether the event will reach even the AR-1 threshold. The fact that it's even in the realm of possibility is unusual in late September!

Via NWS Bay Area, the last two days of lightning across the region.

Both the American and European forecast models show a rainy Tuesday next week...but of course those models differ on when the rain arrives, when it departs, how much we'll get, pretty much everything else. But at least it's looking good for another chance of early-autumn rain next week!

Lightning, thunder, and rain at my house. Loving every second of this…

Quite a view of our "mixed bag" of weather, from our Black Mountain camera: some showers, a lot of clouds, but also some sunshine! More showers possible overnight...

Pretty view of the storm sending showers across the Bay Area, from the GOES-WEST satellite.

I get that the news cycle is packed right now, but I just heard from a colleague at the Smithsonian that this is fully a GIANT SQUID BEING EATEN BY A SPERM WHALE and it’s possibly the first ever confirmed video according to a friend at NOAA 10 YEAR OLD ME IS LOSING HER MIND (a thread 🧵)

Midday radar update: broken band of showers steadily making northward progress. Not seeing much cloud-to-ground lightning at this point, but that remains possible into this evening! #CAwx

Clouds from the storm system to our south arrived just in time for a nice sunset this evening...

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 Temperatures won't be a problem for "George" on Wednesday, but he might have to dodge some showers in the North Bay by the afternoon. He's all smiles either way — if you want this smile in your life, details here: www.lilyslegacy.org/available.html

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move south-to-north into the Bay Area on Wednesday. Total rainfall will be modest, but brief downpours could make roads slick, and you don't want to be caught in the open when there's lightning in the area! #CAwx

The first full day of autumn will still feel like summer across the Bay Area. But we're not likely to break any records, and the heat won't last long! Back to near-average highs with a chance of rain showers on Wednesday...

Fall officially arrived at 11:19am today...although it didn't feel like it with inland temperatures reaching the 90s. We lose 2 hours and 35 minutes of daylight between now and the winter solstice on December 21.

Okay, as near as I can tell, this will be the first time since 1901 or 1902 since the Dodgers and Giants were tied in their regular season series.

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 "Flower" is ready to blossom in a fur-ever home, and she gets to soak up plenty of late-summer sunshine on Saturday while she waits. Details here: www.alamedasheriff.gov/community/ad...

Forecast model radar simulation shows the bulk of the moisture avoiding the Bay Area…but we’ll still see some hit-or-miss showers through the first half of Friday. Cloud-to-ground lightning threat looks low overall.

Finally starting to see a few organized showers out there, primarily over the North Bay. More showers tonight and early Friday, although they'll be more "miss" than "hit."

Weather balloon data from Oakland shows a substantial layer of dry air (which I've outlined in blue) in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere. This was under-represented by earlier model data, and its presence is why tomorrow's forecast has trended so much drier. Dry lightning still a threat though!

The high clouds made for a very nice sunset this evening...

They went and made a fake girl and even she won’t talk to them

Latest run of the HRRR model (one that typically performs well in these scenarios) steers tomorrow’s rain almost completely away from the Bay Area. While I think this is the most-likely scenario, there’s other data that shows the rain headed directly our way! Keep the umbrella handy, just in case…

High and mid-level clouds are streaming up the coast, as the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario spread moisture into California. Should be a SPECTACULAR sunset tonight, ahead of tomorrow's chance of showers and thunderstorms.

One full year with this handsome gentleman. Happy Gotcha Day, Leo!

Forecast models are still ping-ponging around regarding our rain chances Thursday into Friday. Overall, we're looking at a good chance of showers and thunderstorms in the region, but your chances of measurable rain in any specific spot are still lower than 50-50.

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 Those eyes are just pleading for a walk, but "Jack" will have to be content to hang out in the A/C at his foster home on Wednesday. He might be able to frolic in some rain showers by Thursday though! Details on how to adopt: www.lilyslegacy.org/available.html

Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario will move up into California later this week. In terms of what that means for our shower/thunderstorm chances...the forecast data is ALL OVER THE PLACE. We've got a chance of showers in our forecast, but it could still go either way. #CAwx

Politics is increasingly divided between those who are comfortable with the complex systems of modernity and those who would rather burn the world down than accept that things are complicated now.

God, I love when Notre Dame loses on NBC. ESPECIALLY TO MY TEAM. #GIGEM!

Leo is ready for game day. Gig em!

┻┳| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| ┻┳| ┳┻| _ ┻┳| •.•) the Giants are only a half-game ┳┻|⊂ﾉ out of a Wild Card spot ┻┳|

Well, that was really something

Wild how all these QBs thrive post Jimbo. Almost like they weren’t the problem.

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 Perfect facial expression for "Harley Quinn" — I mean, then only way to stay sane is to go a little crazy, right? Perfect weather for her to run around on Saturday, with comfortable temperatures and lots of sunshine. Details here: www.alamedasheriff.gov/community/ad...

Now that our chance of not-quite-autumn showers has moved out, we get to enjoy a "normal" September pattern for a few days...but it doesn't last long! Back to summertime mode for most of next week.

The massive extreme marine heatwave continues to stretch across the entire northern Pacific Ocean. In fact, the magnitude of the sea surface temperature anomalies even grew in August 2025 compared to earlier in the summer. Yikes... 🫠 Data from OISSTv2.1 (psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded...). 🌊

Flood Advisory for far northern Napa county

As expected, a few thunderstorms are trying to sneak into the North Bay. Some heavy rainfall with these, so localized flooding is something we’ll be watching for this afternoon…especially near any burn scars.

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 "Halo" is all smiles, despite another day of muggy and unsettled weather. A few thunderstorms could even visit the North Bay in the afternoon! This sweet girl is ready to find her fur-ever home — details here: www.lilyslegacy.org/available.html

24-hour rainfall totals: not bad at all for September!

Hard to believe it’s been five years since “orange sky day” in the Bay Area…

Spotty showers possible the next couple of days — they won't amount to much, but ANY moisture in mid-September is definitely a bonus!

Every once in a while I tell people from other countries about how the health insurance system works in the US and they are aghast. Yesterday a guy straight up didn’t believe me when I said people can die because of not being able to afford medicine. He was sure I meant in the distant past.

Hey, quick question. Exactly when do you think the Manhattan Project happened?

🚨ADOPTABLE DOG ALERT🚨 Bay Area pups are all smiles for this cooler weather pattern, including "Marshall" from the East County Animal Shelter. If you're interested in adopting this handsome fella, details here: www.alamedasheriff.gov/community/ad...

Temperatures today were well below-average for late summer, with inland communities only reaching the mid to upper 70s. More of the same in store tomorrow, and we're even tracking a (very slight) chance of showers next week!

Smoke from the fires burning in other parts of California will largely avoid the Bay Area…at least, for the next couple of days. Hazy skies will be the worst that we see. Cooler than normal temperatures through the weekend as well!