New open-access paper: we discuss graph-based adaptive multiarm, multiple-endpoint two-stage designs that allow early stopping, sample size re-estimation & dropping treatments/endpoints while preserving strong FWER control. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/... #multipletesting #adaptivedesign

#ISCB46 very nice talk by Michael Kammer on COVID-19 prognostic models, which involved a ‘deep dive’ into the pond life of modelling. Bottom line: “If looking for reliable models, don’t hold your breath.”

Pleased to report on two papers on #ANVOVA with @poschm.bsky.social and Franz König The first lnkd.in/eKmjiQdk looks at median stratification for a single covariate. The second lnkd.in/e3DH96G8 considers adjustment for many covariates. Variance inflation factors are key.

We invite applications for a 1-year postdoctoral/postgraduate researcher position at the Institute of Medical Statistics, MedUni Vienna working in a collaborative project with regulatory authorities on causal inference for treatment effect estimation in RCTs cloudius.meduniwien.ac.at/index.php/s/...

Welcome to the official Bluesky account of SHARE-CTD! We're a European research network dedicated to enhancing clinical trial data sharing to advance medical research and the betterment of society. Learn more: share-ctd.eu #SHARECTD #OpenScience #DataSharing

Congratulations to the #ENAR2025 Student Paper Award Winners! Checkout these eight winners (more to come). Catch their presentations at the 2025 ENAR Spring Conference. #ENAR #StudentAwards #NewOrleans

A revised version of the paper with @poschm.bsky.social and Franz Koenig on stratification and covariate adjustment in clinical trials is now up arxiv.org/pdf/2408.06760 We thank Robin Ristl and @timpmorris.bsky.social for helpful comments.

This past month has seen the publication of a couple of new helpful papers providing further insights into the thorny issue of #MultipleTesting in trials 1/7 #MethodologyMonday #112

doi.org/10.1002/sim.... Our paper "A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Time-To-Event Analyses in Randomized Controlled Trials Under Non-Proportional Hazards" got published today 🎉 We describe commonly used methods, and compare their performance in a simulation study across different scenarios.

Some news of SHARE-CTD. Good news.

4 perspectives on the use of LLM in the practice of science www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/... . Should LLM be seen as collaborators?

Together with Cyrus Mehta and Ajoy Mukhopadhyay, we present a unified framework for graph-based adaptive designs in multi-arm, multi-endpoint, two-stage studies. This approach integrates multiple strategies to enable flexible confirmatory trial designs. Preprint: arxiv.org/abs/2501.03197

A beautifully written interview by Alex Sverdlov featuring my colleague Amy Racine-Poon, published in the International Statistical Review. doi.org/10.1111/insr...

TRIPOD-LLM is out! Check out our consensus guidelines for reporting #LLM research in biomedicine. TRIPOD-LLM is intended to be a living guideline to keep up with the rapid advances in LLMs. Kudos to lead author Dr. Jack Gallifant

Priors and decision thresholds in phase 2 and phase 3 randomized controlled trials evaluating drug efficacy using Bayesian methods: a systematic review - @jclinepi.bsky.social www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...

"It's easy to get a false positive risk of 40% withOUT any cheating at all"

Amazing collective problem solving in ants:

Great essay by David Spiegelhalter!

Developing a prediction model? Ever wondered how to target sample size to improve model fairness and precision of risk estimates? Check out our new pre-print & software package pmstabilityss arxiv.org/abs/2407.09293

Great to see this R package: stephenrho.github.io/pminternal/ Implements the (in)stability plots and checks recommended by myself & @gscollins.bsky.social after developing a prediction model Our paper is here: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....

The Journal of Clinical Epidemiology is, as of today, present at Bluesky 🎉 And, only here, you can have a sneak preview of our new journal and website design. But of course, our contents remains key, with many thanks to our authors, reviewers, editorial board and editorial team

Last year I published research proving (yes, proving 😉 ) that new episodes of Doctor Who on Christmas Day reduce death rates in UK Since then, the BBC have shown brand new episodes on Christmas Day! Including this year! Who said my research has no impact? ❤️❤️ #DoctorWho www.bmj.com/content/383/...

Christmas 2024 Gift no. 4 NEW VIDEO: "IPD Meta-Analysis: Two-stage or Not Two-Stage? That is the question..." youtu.be/WFSAfouhB-8 - guidance for when to choose a one-stage rather than a two-stage approach, & vice versa. - ideas showcased using real examples (no equations) I hope useful!

If you've been wondering where I went: my team in Oxford (60 of us!) build beautiful tools for NHS data. We help researchers work on the whole nation's GP records while protecting - provably - everyone's privacy. It's big potatoes! www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRjR...

Hot off the preprint server: ‘Efficiency of nonparametric superiority tests based on restricted mean survival time versus the log-rank test under proportional hazards’ Short thread 👇 1/ arxiv.org/abs/2412.06442

If you missed my talk but still want to learn how to make your R code more reproducible, my slides are here 🙂: daxkellie.quarto.pub/will-your-co... All the links to packages and resources I mentioned are there, so hopefully this can be a nice reference, too! #ESAus2024 #rstats #quartopub 🧪🌏

It’s time to prepare for the next revolution in computing www.nature.com/articles/d41...

'...suppose that Sir R.A. Fisher ... had not taken over from ordinary English such evocative words as "sufficient," "efficient," & "consistent" & made them into precisely defined terms of statistical theory...Would his work have had the same smashing influence that it did?' Kruskal, 1978

"In randomized experiments, the effects of this variable are distributed among the groups by the randomization in a way that is taken into account in the standard tests of significance. ." Cochran 1957. NB "distributed". He does not say "balanced." See also errorstatistics.com/2020/04/20/s...

We are recruiting a Tenure-track Assistant Professor "Machine Learning in the Life Sciences" at the Medical University of Vienna. We will nominate the top candidate for a € 1.8 million starting grant by a Viennese foundation. Deadline: Dec 31st. Details: medical-epigenomics.org/files/Tenure...

Okay here's your #stats trivia question for the day, on propensity scores and regression adjustment. Say that you're using entropy-balancing propensity score weights to estimate an average treatment effect for the treated (ATT). Zhao and Percival show that this estimator is doubly robust... 1/

While they're all the rage, Adrian Barnett always has me thinking twice about the usefulness of prediction models ... "Evidence of questionable research practices in clinical prediction models" bmcmedicine.biomedcentral.com/articles/10....

"Why doesn't the NHS use its GP data?". Because of privacy... Because it's hard... But we solved it. We developed new privacy protections... We built docs.OpenSAFELY.org! 181 projects! 31 organisations! Now, they come together, for the first time, in 3D! www.bennett.ox.ac.uk/blog/2024/10...

New paper from Shaun Seaman and me on how to simulate data from marginal structural models (MSMs) for survival outcomes, including Cox MSMs. This can be useful in simulation studies evaluating causal inference methods that use MSMs. R code provided. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Senior Moment. I was just thinking "its abut time I posted something about regression dilution" when I discovered I did so over 2.5 years ago. Here is is www.linkedin.com/pulse/traged...

Our part 2 series paper in peer review... Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs II: Case study and practical guidance arxiv.org/abs/2411.08771

Our part 1 series paper in peer review ... Confidence intervals for adaptive trial designs I: A methodological review arxiv.org/abs/2411.08495