How likely is ‘likely’? Does ‘likely’ have a higher probability than ‘probable’? I put together a quick quiz so you can see how you interpret probability phrases, then see how you compare with others: probability.kucharski.io

I do wonder if there may come a time when they simply close this stretch of beach, stunning though it is ☹️

I guess 2026 involves me saving the world from an alien invasion?

First mating of the 2026 #kakapo breeding season! True to form, it was Pearl and Boss on Whenua Hou, who mated on the night of 28th Dec. They were also the first two to mate in the last two breeding seasons. We're expecting a bumper year, so follow for updates! #conservation #parrots

I zoomed in, added a bit of contrast, and went back and forth over the first few seconds to show how the ground around the vents bulges outward before the lava breaks through and blasts it apart. Remarkable stuff. Nature is neat. #Kilauea

Here is a hastily constructed animated gif from different NASA satellites showing the progression of the Hayli Gubbi eruption. Note the tall ash plume spreading NE (right) and a lower, light tan ash flow(?) moving NNW. #eruption #volcano

An explosive #eruption of Hayli Gubbi #volcano, located SE of Erta'Ale in the Afar Rift (Ethiopia), began at ~08:30 UTC on Nov 23. Eruption onset was fortuitously captured by a @planet.com overpass at 08:31 UTC. Hayli Gubbi has no record of Holocene eruptions. Toulouse VAAC reporting ash to ~15 km.

Are you an MSc student based at a UK university? Or do you know one? RSPB @rspbscience.bsky.social have just released their list of research projects for 2026: www.rspb.org.uk/helping-natu... #ornithology #conservationscience 🌍

VIDEO: 🇮🇩 Indonesia on highest alert level after volcano near Bali erupts Clouds of ash and gas rise above Mount Semeru in the east of Indonesia's main island of Java after eruptions force officials to raise the alert status to its highest level. At least 300 people have been evacuated so far

Speaking of bad science in media (and I am using the term "media" pretty loosely here), allow me to use The Daily Mail as evidence of why you should get your science information from reputable agencies rather than crap websites. I'm not going to link the article, but it looks like this: 1/n

Today #Strombolistatid’animo treats us to some unbelievable shots 🌋😍 #Stromboli #SebastianoCannaò

Today's harvest

This is my hometown 😢 My family is fine, but the images hit differently when it is a place you know so well www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

I appreciate that the main takeaway from this lesson is that science can't ever really be "apolitical."

The current issue of Nature Geoscience is focussed on the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia. The lahars from this eruption destroyed a town and killed ~20,000 people only ~50 miles from where my mother grew up and I spent a lot of my childhood. www.nature.com/collections/...

Tectonic plate puzzle anyone? 🌎 Made by me, one at a time. I’m planning to have a really limited number available before the holidays - if you want to find out when I do, sign up to my newsletter! I will share them through it first. Sign up > www.luciaperezdiaz.com#newsletter (No spam, I promise)

Fellow seismologists, we're going to get a lot of mileage out of the latest @xkcd.com

I lost the framed original of this while I was going through St Pancras on Sunday Nov 2nd around 3pm. Would love if it had been found by anyone?

Heart Mountain xkcd.com/3162/

Do you like stripy rocks? Want to study how ore deposits form? Does fieldwork in Norway sound like fun? Come do a PhD with @3oja.bsky.social and me (and a few others) at @ueaenv.bsky.social! aries-dtp.ac.uk/studentships...

Kīlauea episode 35 has arrived. The double fountain shot is from one of the HVO interns, Christina. All are taken from the public viewing areas.

Kilauea is putting on another tremendous show right now. Anyone got a private jet we could borrow after No Kings tomorrow? www.youtube.com/live/BqmpkUd...

It must be #FridayFold ⚒️ time! Carboniferous Crackington Formation at Hartland Quay, Devon, UK (similar to Millook Haven further south along the coast, but upright here)

I'm so proud to announce my most ambitious pin to date: a miniature guide to the trees of Britain (and lots of Europe)! Available now from my Etsy: canopyrobin.etsy.com/listing/4386...

A request for weather interested volunteers! Met Eireann would like to rescue millions of weather observations taken in Ireland over many decades that are still stuck on paper. #WeatherRescue Anyone can help: www.zooniverse.org/projects/met...

#Earthquake 18 km E of #Manay (#Philippines) 7 min ago (local time 09:43:59). Colored dots represent local shaking & damage level reported by eyeswitnesses. Share your experience via: 📱https://m.emsc.eu/#app 🌐https://m.emsc.eu/?id=1878673

Ice cave at Zinal Glacier front tonight! 🧊🥰

We have a #MinCup25 champion!! Congratulations, #Kyanite! www.mineralcup.org/2025 After eight years of competing, another few hours to verify votes was nothing, right? Amazing first run, #Tugtupite, and better luck next year.

And here is the updated color summary for #MinCup25! Colorless (white-grey-black) minerals were quickly kicked out, unfortunately. Maybe next time, there can be a max color level for participation? Tenebrescent #tugtupite can participate again and take a glorious win after exposure to UV ;-)

I am so dismayed a the statement today from the President of the @royalsociety.org that I want to publish here the letter I wrote to him yesterday urging him to address the clear concerns of the UK scientific community.

If the racism and fascism on display at the Unite the Kingdom rally, especially from Elon Musk, are not a threat to the "values that allow science to flourish", then what is? Is racism just a "personal political opinion" that you can ignore whenever it's convenient to you, @royalsociety.org?

We are thrilled to announce that our NEW Large Language Model will be released on 11.18.25.

I really can't decide…

Interesting new paper on the seismic crisis on Santorini earlier this year (right when we were trying to book our field course), suggesting that it was caused by the intrusion of a dyke. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

👏 stop 👏 requiring 👏 recommendation letters 👏 in 👏 the 👏 first 👏 round 👏 of 👏 academic 👏 job 👏 applications

#Earthquake (#lindol) confirmed by seismic data.⚠Preliminary info: M7.0 || 23 km E of #Bogo (#Philippines) || 7 min ago (local time 21:59:45). Follow the thread for the updates👇

On the morning of Keir Starmer's conference speech here's a new post on an odd psychopathology in British politics - our main parties don't like the people who vote for them - the dreaded Professional Managerial Class. And so they are acting out like a divorced dad seeking cooler voters. 1/n

Governing by public opinion polls is bad enough, but this isn’t even that. It’s governing by one question in public opinion polls (vote intention) and then misinterpreting/projecting the meaning of that one question into whole policy areas. It is a DISASTER

Semifinals! Hematite X kyanite. I'm torn between wanting a blood stone showdown or a blue versus green duel at the end. #minerals #MinCup25 #sciart

Have you ever stood on an ancient seafloor bed? This is the banded iron formation (BIF) of Hamersley Range, Australia. Go big #hematite ! Vote: www.mineralcup.org/2025/vote/r3... #MinCup25 ⚒️ sci-fi 🧪 🖖🏼 scifi Geosciences #WomenInSTEM geology 🔭🪐

#MinCup25 #Kyanite ⚒️ www.mineralienatlas.de/VIEWmaxFULL....

Some photos from my recent flight to Greece: my favourite city (Venice), the Corinth Canal, and the volcanic island of Aegina

Today I’m voting for the pretty blue mineral with 2 different hardnesses depending on the direction you test it! #kyanite #MinCup25

New poster! Hachure illustrations of the highest Cascade Range volcanoes. This one took a lot of experimentation to get the layout right. If you or someone you know loves this area, check it out. www.etsy.com/listing/4373...

Morning.

It really is an absolute beauty parade of volcanos as we thrum along Lanzarote’s eastern littoral. Between 1730 and 1736, 32 new volcanoes were produced on the island. I don’t know if anyone had written a Five Year Plan for volcano production, but I imagine they exceeded expectations. #Schengen200

This view never gets old…

How many train stations do you know that have 3,000 year-old pottery in the underpass?

#MinCup25 look at this beauty. @seattleminerals.bsky.social if you aren't playing this game, you are missing out. We're still in Round 1 though, so there's plenty of time to join!