1/3 Gen Z is more likely to believe WWIII is coming than that they'll afford a home. Kate Barranco asks: What does sustained exposure to catastrophe do to the futures a generation believes are possible? And what did our crises do to us?

"Peace through strength" sounds simple, but deterrence actually runs on legibility—currently in short supply. Troops out of Germany, surge to the Middle East—noise, not legible strategy. My thoughts @newamerica.org 👇 newamerica.org/insights/peace-through-strength-is-hard-to-read/

We’re in the print edition of @nytopinion.nytimes.com today. Sean Guillory and I write about the long term risks of prediction markets to national security. Check it out.

Excited to share my latest in @nytopinion.nytimes.com with co-author Sean Anthony Guillory: Prediction markets aren't just a finance story — they're a national security one. Read our full argument in NYT Opinion

Trump said today he wouldn't use a nuclear weapon against Iran. The pledge is welcome. The reasoning stopped me. @reuters.com www.reuters.com/world/middle...

The Arms Control Paradox is now available for preorder here: bookshop.org/p/books/the-... Out September 15 @stanfordpress.bsky.social

ICYMI: my conversation with @wjhenn.bsky.social at @newamerica.org on why nuclear danger is rising even as attention fades—and how repeated warnings can turn an existential threat into background noise—is streaming here 👇 www.newamerica.org/events/when-...

Glad to see this argument getting attention. In this piece I’m quoted from my recent @newamerica.org report (supported by @ploughshares.bsky.social), where I argue that nuclear risk has become normalized—warnings accumulate, but urgency fades. Worth reading, especially on Oscar night.

Join @wjhenn.bsky.social of @nytopinion.nytimes.com and New America's @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for a virtual conversation about nuclear risk and threat complacency. 📅 Join us: March 4 at 12 pm ET https://go.newamerica.org/when-nuclear-danger-becomes-noise-5

When agreements erode, force replaces diplomacy. The U.S. operation in Iran is a signal about what comes after limits and frameworks in the nuclear order. My thoughts below. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

As tensions escalate again around Iran and the risk of wider regional conflict grows, nuclear danger is back in the headlines. It is also increasingly normalized. Join us at New America to discuss this phenomenon, our recent report on the topic, and hear from @nytimes.com's @wjhenn.bsky.social

As arms control erodes, everyone talks about stability. But instead of new treaties, we are getting posture tweaks and doctrinal shifts. France isn't breaking with restraint. It’s adjusting to a thinner, more uncertain environment. f24.my/Bm5P.BS

Where is the off-ramp here? What does “success” mean in practical terms, and how will anyone know if it’s been achieved? If there are no clear limits or benchmarks, strikes risk becoming open-ended by default.

I've made a new starter pack of people to follow for news and commentary on Iran. Got the idea from a request by @kakape.bsky.social

SLCM-N is moving ahead. What matters is the world it enters in 2035. New report: “Future-Proofing U.S. Nuclear Policy.” Deterrence will depend less on the missile than the strategy around it. @newamerica.org rg Future Security Scenarios Lab: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

On March 4, grantee @newamerica.org is hosting a virtual conversation on how nuclear danger is understood & reported, also highlighting a new report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social. Register ⬇️ https://loom.ly/K2M7Qy0

After New START, stability will depend less on treaties and more on strategy. Out today: I argue for “disciplined ambiguity” in a post-treaty environment: not secrecy for its own sake, deliberate choices about what to clarify, what to withhold, and how signals shape escalation risk. bit.ly/4bcgKOn

Join us March 4 with @wjhenn.bsky.social for a conversation on how the public understands, interprets, and responds to nuclear risk.

What happens when nuclear warnings become routine? Join @newamerica.org for a conversation on how repeated signals of danger are interpreted, communicated, and acted on in today’s policy environment. With @wjhenn.bsky.social and opening remarks by Anne-Marie Slaughter. Register: bit.ly/4axpuzl

Nuclear debates persist because we disagree not only on policy, but on how to judge risk and evidence under uncertainty. Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social highlighting my @foreignpolicy.com piece on the epistemic divide shaping nuclear policy. Read more: loom.ly/IcwWEpA

Iran’s nuclear file is heating up again amid renewed talks and military buildup. From my 2025 @thebulletin.org piece: There's no clean military solution. Strikes may buy time, but risk escalation and reduced transparency. Goal is to extend warning time before crisis narrows choices. bit.ly/4aMhAky

Appreciate @ploughshares.bsky.social lifting up our @newamerica.org report. Nuclear risk is increasing. Deterrence is under strain, arms control is thinner, and ambiguity is growing. Why, then, does the danger feel distant? Our report analyzes the mechanisms that normalize escalating risk.

Grateful to be included in this roundup from @newamerica.org My contribution to @thebulletin.org examines what managing nuclear risk requires after New START: transparency, restraint, and discipline function as guardrails in a more fragile nuclear order.

🚨JUST IN: Experts share their concern about the no-rules, no-inspections period that opens when New START expires on Thursday. They also see an opportunity to adapt arms control to a multipolar world. My round-up👇 - 1/n (More will be added over the next few days.) #NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

This points to 1 of 2 things: either the bureaucracy is out of step with the informal, fast-moving negotiations in Abu Dhabi, or the mixed messaging is designed to create ambiguity and keep Russia guessing. Both underscore how stability is now being managed through improvisation.

A quiet but consequential signal: New START principles being kept alive, at least temporarily. Six more months of compliance buys time, but also underscores how improvised arms control has become, reportedly brokered through Abu Dhabi rather than formal channels.

New START can’t be extended anyway - of course the talks are about a new agreement.

Today, New START expires without replacement, ending the U.S.–Russia strategic nuclear arms treaty era — not arms control itself. In @thebulletin.org I examine why managing uncertainty, rather than restoring past models, must now be a priority. thebulletin.org/2026/02/the-...

Amy Nelson (@amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social), a senior fellow at @newamerica.org, explains that minimal deterrence may still be possible in a multipolar world, but only if defined functionally rather than numerically. - 3/n #NewSTART #armscontrol #nukesky

With New START expiring later this week, I'm resharing my @poni.csis.org conversation on The Negotiator Files with Rose Gottemoeller, the chief U.S. negotiator of the treaty, on how it was negotiated, ratified, and what its legacy means for #armscontrol today

Excited to share the cover of my forthcoming book, The Arms Control Paradox, out with @stanfordpress.bsky.social in Sept 2026. It examines why #armscontrol works when it manages uncertainty—and why that task has become harder. #InternationalRelations #DecisionTheory

Is A House of Dynamite “realistic”? That’s the wrong question. @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social of @newamerica.org argues what matters is whether it feels real enough to spur action on nuclear risk. ☢️ https://go.newamerica.org/house-of-dynamite-nuclear-thinking-5

Public awareness of nuclear danger remains high even as action to reduce it is rare. Read the latest report by @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social to learn more. ☢️ https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/future-security-scenarios-lab/reports/threat-complacency-and-nuclear-risk/

New piece out today @newamerica.org: How @netflix.com's A House of Dynamite Might Change Our Thinking on Nuclear War. Debates over the film's realism miss the point: the real question is how it shapes attention, framing, and imagination around #nuclear risk www.newamerica.org/the-thread/n...

Harnessing disagreement is not a nice-to-have in nuclear policy. It is a resilience requirement. #NuclearRisk #StrategicStability #Deterrence @newamerica.org

Grateful to the @newamerica.org team for supporting this work. The report unpacks why warnings fail and what it means for nuclear risk today.

My @foreignpolicy.com op-ed is now live. It looks at what the nuclear policy field can learn from other deeply divided fields that rebuilt coherence and widened public engagement. Op-ed: foreignpolicy.com/2025/12/11/n... Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #NuclearRisk #NationalSecurity

Our new @newamerica.org report is out today. It explains why nuclear risk warnings rarely land with the public and how fractured expert signals contribute to the problem. Report: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... A companion op-ed comes out at 10 @foreignpolicy.com #NuclearRisk #RiskAnalysis

In PONI's newest episode of The Negotiator Files, @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social speaks with Monte Mallin, who shares insights from his decades of experience as a U.S. arms control negotiator. Watch the interview here: nuclearnetwork.csis.org/the-negotiat...

I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet. Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize. bit.ly/3BvQwVnY #NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy

So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…

Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.

What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.

NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.

The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque. As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point? New piece for @newamerica.org: 🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

New America experts around the web: 1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr 2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4 3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd 4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu

This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts? Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson! Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next? My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next. 🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear