I warned that without clear US nuclear policy, we’d be vulnerable to misinterpretation—even of a tweet. Trump’s remark on “restarting testing” shows it: allies alarmed, adversaries emboldened. Ambiguity can deter—but it can also destabilize. bit.ly/3BvQwVnY #NuclearPolicy #Deterrence #ForeignPolicy

So this was troll-the-libs-nuclear-testing-edition…

Coming soon from the Future Security Scenarios Lab: our new report on why warnings of catastrophic nuclear risk go unheard—and how to make them matter.

What does it take to build conditions for nuclear disarmament? In PONI’s Negotiator Files, I speak with Christopher Ford about lessons from the NPT process and the CEND initiative.

NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.

The Trump admin looks set to skip an NPR—a break with decades of precedent that leaves US nuclear strategy unusually opaque. As we wait for new strategy docs, the question is: will they fill the gap, or is ambiguity now the point? New piece for @newamerica.org: 🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

New America experts around the web: 1️⃣ @slaughteram.bsky.social for @bloomberg.com bloom.bg/4o5daLr 2️⃣ @mschmitt9.bsky.social for Democracy Journal bit.ly/415YQs4 3️⃣ @sydneysaubestre.bsky.social for @usnews.com bit.ly/3GZ3yBd 4️⃣ @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social for Modern War Institute bit.ly/4lOnbeu

This podcast is asking the right questions: What should guide future #Nuclear #ArmsControl in a world beyond #parity + warhead cuts? Well done @pranayrvaddi.bsky.social, Vipin Narang, Mallory Stewart, Mike Albertson! Framing the New START Follow-On Discussion open.substack.com/pub/strategi...

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next? My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

The #Iran crisis isn’t just about uranium or airstrikes. It’s about what happens when #ArmsControl frameworks break down and we don’t have a strategy for what comes next. 🔗 www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #NatSec #Diplomacy #Nuclear

1/ For decades, the U.S. and others threatened force to deter nuclear breakout—expecting diplomacy to follow. But what happens when the diplomatic track erodes altogether? 🧵

1/ Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵

When RAND was founded in 1948, it was because the old ways of thinking couldn’t meet new atomic-age threats. The Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org picks up that mantle—designing futures thinking for today’s interdependent risks. Read more here: www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

🚨 New blog post! We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world. Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.” 📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity

Worth noting: The new US proposal to Iran underscores a broader truth: #ArmsControl often advances not through grand bargains, but through incremental steps. As my work highlights, this kind of progress can reduce risk and build stability even amid deep #uncertainty. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/03/u...

I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org! If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk. #Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL

Arms control negotiations don't collapse over weapons—they collapse over mistrust. When you can’t trust the other side’s intentions, that’s the death knell. Every time. #armscontrol #natsec #diplomacy via @nbcnews www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/i...

In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.

Just in: To prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout, Trump must confront a messy reality: diplomacy @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social's latest in @thebulletin.org thebulletin.org/2025/03/to-p... #Iran #nuclearweapons #armscontrol #Trump #diplomacy #nukesky

The U.S. 2023 Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) Policy has just been rescinded by the White House. CAT policy regulates US arms exports to promote US security interests, including alliances, support economic and defense industry interests, and address human rights and regional stability concerns.

Of all the uncertainties emanating shifting U.S. foreign policy, the question of whether allies - longstanding member of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty - will consider acquiring their own nuclear weapons is the least uncertain.

🚨 Free eprints available! @alexmontgomery.bsky.social are excited to share our latest article, "Ceci n’est pas une nuke? The impact of emerging militarized technologies on strategic stability," in the Journal of Strategic Studies. Get a free download here: www.tandfonline.com/eprint/ITWWX...

In a word: destabilizing www.nytimes.com/2025/01/28/u...

Attending the #INF Treaty anniversary event today—a moment to reflect on a landmark in arms control. Despite challenges facing arms control today, the INF Treaty stands as a critical achievement in enhancing global security. Grateful this community continues to engage on these issues. #ArmsControl

What has been the role of #luck in forestalling #nuclear disasters? Uncertain times call for big ideas. @douglasbshaw.bsky.social, @stevefetter.bsky.social, and Lyndon Burford and I discussed Benoit Pelopidas's ideas and work @nti.org.

This Thanksgiving, we celebrate the connections that bring us together across the world. Here’s to resilience, kindness, and building a better future—together. #Thanksgiving #Gratitude #GlobalConnections

“By presenting strategic continuity as change, it has left Germany unprepared to face major (geo)political and (geo)economic challenges, and has eroded influence with allies.”

It was an honor speaking about emerging/emerged technologies, strategic stability, and the enduring project of arms control at the EU Nonproliferation and Disarmament Conference #EUNPDC