I would be remiss if I didn't mention that @dandrezner.bsky.social pinned it: bsky.app/profile/dand...

I suspect @dexeve.bsky.social may be right here regarding what Trump thinks he has asked the DoD to do, although I wouldn't go so far as to say "certainly." It would make more sense than underground testing as a "on an equal basis" since... neither Russia nor China has restarted testing.

Archived at bsky.app/profile/jaco...

The United States has tested more weapons than every other country combined, and has the most robust science based stockpile stewardship program. Restarting testing would erode the US lead. www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/n...

“Users often turn to satellite imagery from companies like Planet Labs to find out what’s going on in war zones, countries ruled by authoritarian regimes, or in the aftermath of a natural disaster.” Spot on, except the disaster is man-made in this case…

Astute analysis of the implications of Hegfest: a military that will be instructed to violate domestic and international law.

I guess it’s Portland’s turn. As a reminder, this federal invasion is based on protests outside of a single ICE facility, where *PDX police* have reported that federal agents are instigating confrontations.

NPR is useful for many things, even though most of them make at most small changes at the margin. It's the current signal for US (declared) nuclear doctrine, and it tells organizations what to do. In the absence of a new one, organizations will soldier on, but doctrine becomes dangerously ambiguous.

My latest publication, and my first published under my @newamerica.org affiliation: “The Nonproliferation Implications of the Spread of Emerging Technologies” with commentary by @jamiewithorne.bsky.social @lrand11.bsky.social @julesgeorge.bsky.social @jcanfil.bsky.social

In a world where #ArmsControl treaties are unraveling, what comes next? My latest for @newamerica.org looks at the #Iran crisis as a warning—and a preview—of how strategic uncertainty plays out in an age without #Nuclear arms control agreements. www.newamerica.org/future-secur...

Tired: Blowing up Osiraq, declaring Iraq denuclearized Wired: Blowing up Yongbyon cooling tower, declaring North Korea denuclearized Inspired: Blowing up Fordow entrances, declaring Iran denuclearized

@alexmontgomery.bsky.social's work on proliferation networks & nuclear technology acquisition is super relevant here. "Past strategies aimed at dissuading proliferants have been most successful when they combine diplomatic, social, and economic benefits with credible threats and clear red lines."

1/ Iran’s drone program is a case study in how strategic tech spreads, even under pressure. From importer to innovator to exporter. Quick breakdown 🧵

🚨 New blog post! We’ve launched the Future Security Scenarios Lab at @newamerica.org, a space to rethink security in a fast-changing world. Our first blog post dives into why this feels like a new “RAND moment.” 📖 Read: www.newamerica.org/future-secur... #StrategicForesight #NationalSecurity

I'm so proud of the team we're building and the launch of the Future Security Scenarios Lab @newamerica.org! If you’re working on futures thinking and national security, let’s talk. #Foresight #FuturesThinking #NuclearPolicy #AI #NationalSecurity #FSSL

@elkeschwarz.bsky.social has the right analogy for the tech elite’s attitude towards everyone else: they want to treat us all like NPCs.

Same deduction I made. Would love to see any open source evidence of this.

TIL that nuclear umbrella is “parapluie nucléaire” in French. Which is amazing. 🤯

In advance of the announced #nuclear negotiations between US and #Iran this weekend, I'm re-upping: forceful tactics may have brought Iran to the negotiation table, but will not seal the deal. US will have to compromise, adapt, and resist the seduction of the binary – "winning" won't work here.

The Best Memes About Adding Reporters to Group Chats About Bombing Yemen gizmodo.com/the-best-mem...

If your project requires doing something like this (immoral if not illegal) to function, your project is not sustainable, and deserves to be stuck in a Nepenthes-style trap.

I hate it when my work gets more relevant.

As I tell my students:

“My advice? Reinforce your roof, buy a stronger umbrella, and pack a parachute.” h/t @elkeschwarz.bsky.social

A different reason for missing the Cold War than what Mearsheimer predicted, but I'm still missing the 80s—despite the foundations that were laid then for the current chaos.

I was just about to look up the current Polity score for my lecture on the democratic peace. I guess when we attack Denmark over Greenland that won’t be a problem (for the theory)… www.systemicpeace.org

My coauthor @amyjnelsonphd.bsky.social beat me to it, and probably summarized it better than I would have. If eprints run out, send me a DM! My only addition is to share my favorite figure—our slight reworking of Jervis's "four worlds" @dhnexon.bsky.social @dandrezner.bsky.social

An excellent thread on a historian's view of the new IO nuclear non-use piece and the wider literature by @colleen-larkin.bsky.social and not-on-bluesky-yet Stacie Goddard

It’s here!! My essay with Stacie Goddard on pathways of nuclear nonuse @iojournal.bsky.social

From the copy-editing and proof review instructions of a new piece I have coming out. Editor, correct thyself?

It’s the OLED-industrial complex trying to get you to buy a new TV. And some blackout curtains.

Excellent post with a reminder at the end: “When you’re trying to develop a measure of intelligence, it’s essential, though difficult, to avoid Goodhart’s law: “When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.” As a community of AI researchers, we really need to figure that one out.”

“One fear in Seoul is that in the future Mr. Kim may be able to bargain for Russian help to master technologies needed for nuclear missiles that could hit targets across the Pacific.” The DPRK has been able to hit targets across the Pacific since at least 2017.

IR scholars: you’ll know it’s really bad when they get around to reading us.

Decker’s OSINT chops once again are on display.

TIL that the NAACP has a travel advisory for Florida.

Dear graduate schools: I don't want to send my students to any department that is under the delusion that this is a valid measure. At best, this determines whether you can click in a straight line, which was funny when this was a "drunk browsing test" in the internet of, oh, the late 1900s.

Speaking of gifts, an option for the proliferation wonk in your life. Place in your office and see which of your students is really paying attention to proliferation.

Found the perfect gift mug for 2/3rds of the US Supreme Court

Starter Pack for Nuclear Weapons History and Politics. Most of these folks are within the broader #NukeSky world. If I've missed you, please let me know if you would like to be added or suggest anyone else who should be on this! 👉 go.bsky.app/KDiibQK

Gaza suffers torrential winter rains & floods. Hundreds of thousands of people face potentially lethal environmental conditions over the next few months. Many will die from entirely preventable conditions. These are "indirect" deaths, but still very much the result of war. New in @foreignpolicy.com.

The development of AI agents is irritating to me for a couple of reasons. First off, it is more than plausible that many mistakes – some minor, some major – will happen because for AI agents to interact with the real world will remain a challenge. 1/ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Thanks for including me, @lrand11.bsky.social - I guess I actually have to start posting now?

Nuclear policy starter pack for folks coming from other socials. Will update regularly. go.bsky.app/BWGGzgX

To this I would add: As an IR scholar, I would like to stop having to know as much about American Politics as I have been forced to learn over the past eight years.

I just took a survey that would have benefited from the modified 2-D Likert scale I just invented

You’ve been kidnapped. The characters from the last TV show you watched are trying to rescue you. Who is coming to save you?

Quote post the fictional character you are in your head

You’ve robbed a bank. Who is your getaway driver?