I am not a Republican

Feeling great

coda: It's amazing to me how people can't seem to understand that there are a lot of people who look at the Neoliberal world order and say "Well this fucking sucks and everything is awful" and they're not MAGA coded. And telling these people to defend said world order is.. really stupid?

AI has definitely made the bad students worse, whereas the good students remain the same. I think cognitive atrophy has harmed them esp foreign language students who are translating everything with AI and not practicing English. They are bombing in person exams

It's that time of year where students ask how they can atone for using AI, missing a quarter of class sessions, and failing the midterm without that requiring extra work.

Sold some oilers that that run a lot and buying the energy dip here with a focus on LNG related trades. Nitrogen, LNG, coal are all structurally undersupplied post Ras laffan attack. Equities trading not far off pre war levels. Risk asymmetry vs oil producers. #$CNR #$AGRO #$LXU #$VG #$STO.ax #$WHC.ax

Reminds me of the uranium market. When there's a supply gap most institutions (like say refinery buyers) will try and wait out the gap. The issue is when everyone gets back in the water and if they're doing so post gap.

Exactly! There's so much ill gotten wealth to be extracted. So many scam companies to break over the wheel. And especially in healthcare,this materially reduces gov spending!

#$TSLA the stock is performing poorly, which is good because the company is trash. But why short #$TSLA when you could short #$TSLY the "yield max" covered call etf version of the same stock? The vol is lower because owners sell vol on the etf too and the options writing produces a material drag.

No one wants to long oil because "what if Trump tweets something out?" Everyone wants to long oil vol because "What if trump tweets something out?" So now oil vol and oil price are way too low given physical clearing ($20-$50 bucks more). Long LNG/high spec coal/N Ferts is a lay up here imo.

Yub Nub dry run on our hands

Once again, "American power is fake" is going to get a lot of people (mostly innocent Iranians) killed. You can have all the mountain cities and drones you want, but you need money to move people at scale. Iran has like ~$30b in reserves with 40-50% inflation.

Buying more energy trades, mostly stuff that's got duration because of LNG. Seaborne high spec coal, nitrogen ferts, maybe buy some gas near the bell. Flows all bolted, but fundy set up improved.

This is what Peak Performance looks like

The people of Suffolk County demand reconstruction money. No more ferries until tolls are paid by perfidious Connecticut and NYC.

Future global hegemons definitely have this kind of demography

books: the rectangle that can’t send you push notifications. Try: books.

If Vance wants to hold off Tucker from supplanting him, he'll need to be the one to get Trump removed.

In re the New Yorker article, I was perusing the deepest corners of my Twitter archives and I found a Dec 11 2015 tweet calling OpenAI a scam because it was founded by Musk and Altman, so I’d like my solid gold Day-3 AI hater trophy and Bluesky accolades delivered at everyone’s earliest convenience.

Yep, this is how a temporary energy crisis becomes a not so temporary one with the knock on of hundreds of millions of refugees and hundreds of millions dead from famine. The issue is the US suffers the least of everyone on the planet in this scenario, so the balance of terror remains asymmetric

NASA just dropped this image of Artemis II astronaut Christina Koch looking back at us. The first woman to ever see our planet in its entirety. I’m not crying you’re crying 🥹🔭🧪 📸: NASA

Now seeing skeets about "electroyuan" and "china cross border payment system". Again, the Chinese economic system *must* have a closed capital account. A yuan quasi reserve currency doesn't work unless china changes its entire governance system.

They already made the Taylor Franke Paul Bachelorette season, just let us watch it

Bought more energy exposure. If we got 2 more weeks according to the wet orange boy, then the structural deficit gets A Lot worse.

Gets to a point I've been saying a lot: China couldn't be a Hegemon. That would require 1. increasing domestic consumption 2. More Imports 3. Free flowing capital markets 4. Force projection beyond Taiwan.

Inflation is about *expectations* and the expectations are going up. Nowcast inflation is closer to 3.5%. People aren't wrong here.

THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS AN ELECTROSTATE! An electrostate is just a bunch of capex, thats all. Unless you want to talk about unique access to solar/geo/hydro generation, in which case the US/Australia/Chile/iceland/norway are electrostates. China is structurally disadvantaged in all these

Didn't make it to No Kings yesterday (I am a very tired toddler parent), but am bulled up for May day. Def participating in this one

It feels very similar to Biden after the debate as Gaza genocide ramped. You just could not ID with the dems. Brand was DEAD.

Subbed yesterday and already got my money's worth.

Think Uranium is an unsung trade during and after the Hormuz crisis. Buying #$SRUUF here on discount to NAV should work. Of note, after degrossing it's picked up an energy bid the last 2 sessions. Uranium demand should only go up from here, both from increased demand and security of supply concerns.

Looking at #$AMCX this weekend. Am I insane to consider a 6x levered stub? Yes. But is it insane to buy something at 1x FCF when the maturities arent for 5 years and the streaming biz has inflected to durable cash flow? I think not! Other "Shitcos with a Shot" on my list: #$NVAX, #$WU, #$COLL, #$VSNT

Why is this Alan Elrod dork on my feed constantly and why is it almost always some weird left punchy adjacent screed?

New Yorkers, join us in the first ever Mayor’s Municipal Madness: a competition of city fixes where everyone wins. Pick your fix and vote here: nyc.gov/madness

Niche Commodity stocks should be bid if this takes off. Security of Supply Baybee!

Neoliberalism Market Socialism, More and More People are Saying It

Why does everyone want to talk about Platner each and every week? I stopped my donations after the tattoo stuff and havent thought much about it since. Unless you live in Maine, why keep talking about it?

Solves two problems. 1. More money for transit! 2. Petty Crimes like far evasion take up enormous space in the social imaginary of dumb people, so designing them away removes an easy lever for reactionary copaganda.

Starting an #$IVN.TO position here. Integrated smelter and suplhuric acid plant, plus hydropower. Insulates it against many hormuz supply shocks. Down 50% from high and only starting to mine the good stuff. Copper in the doghouse cuz macro, but this mine will operate profitably for 100 years.

in the 2002 docu Comedian there’s a scene where Seinfeld is talking to Colin Quinn about what would happen if Jack Nicholson did stand up. and for 5 minutes everyone would love it and laugh because he’s Jack. but after that it becomes, “let’s go Jack, say something funny” that’s where markets are

Left tail has been cut off for energy this year and next I'd say. Storage wiped out. Supply response from Shale will kick in, but you need sustained prices for that.

Things like this are what smash low info+low trust voter based coalitions. The longer this goes the more likely a 55 seat senate dem majority becomes.

People seem confused by this but for what purpose would you ever buy gold if not for the ability to spend it during a war that has prompted the largest energy supply crisis in history?

Diesel pricing, far more than gasoline, is gonna be the thing that breaks the Trump coalition. Its use is biased towards rural/exurban people, small business owners, farmers, and resource extraction types (fisherman for ex). Rural splits only need to go from 90/10 to 80/20 for GOP to lose Senate

ICE storyline on The Pitt not realistic. ICE agents would never bring an injured person to the emergency room

Don't even need a wealth tax here. These guys are all sufficiently connected to Trumpworld criminality that civil forfeiture is on the table.

1/ Today, we overwhelmingly voted to authorize a STRIKE as we fight for a fair contract with @propublica.org.

Having flashbacks of defending my dissertation today as it included a lot of calculations about steam reformation and clean firm generation. Yes, it was a philosophy dissertation. Yes I know, that sounds weird. Just ask @buddyyakov.bsky.social he can attest it was indeed philosophical

Me reading the Hebrew Bible: "Welp, this checks out"