Dramatic day in the JGB market.

First day in the new shop, and it’s not looking too bad. A beautiful day for a walk up to Parliament House. (And certainly easier to get into the building than the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.)

For those of you crying over this price tag, you can drown your sorrows with a SPY-6 Sour!

Full 2025 Chinese trade data now out. Headline is clearly a historical global record $1.2 trillion surplus with the world What of Europe? 📈China's trade surplus with the EU: +18.1% 📈 with Germany: +108% 📈 with France: +23.9% 📈 with Italy: +32.6% 📈 with Netherlands: +1.4%

Really feeling like I’m back in Oz when “I was only 19” comes on at the pub. youtu.be/mGDhzVi1bqU?...

Bloomberg: "China’s warning to Japan that it could choke off supplies of rare earths, its favorite weapon in trade conflicts, targets a persistent vulnerability among Japanese manufacturers after more than a decade of Tokyo trying to reduce reliance on its rival." www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

The new year sees me with a new beat - economy and government reporter in Canberra. I’m keen to meet and chat to anyone as I learn how Australia has changed since I last lived here in 2000. So if you want to talk about Oz and its place in the world, please get in touch.

Sankei graphic shows how, in 2015, Chinese were the largest foreign population in 34 of Japan's 47 prefectures. By 2025, Vietnamese had become the largest population in 33. www.sankei.com/article/2026...

“Five Simples” rectification program launched by leadership of American state media popular among elderly viewers.

A prominent group of Japanese executives has put its planned visit to Beijing on hold, a sign that a diplomatic feud is chilling commercial ties between Asia’s two largest economies. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

New Japan visa for Chinese tourists stalls amid frayed relations trib.al/YyiR9X0

Wandering around Tokyo is never boring. Always something (or someone) surprising.

This seems like it could be a big deal: asia.nikkei.com/politics/def...

Chatting to a Didi driver today, he said he’d only been doing this in Beijing for 2 months. Used to work in factories in Shandong but the work dried up so now he’s here, driving a car. Apparently he earns 600-800 yuan for a 15-hour day. Which is more money but longer hours than the factory.

Cleaning out my desk I stumbled upon a report from early 2019, forecasting China would drop into a current account deficit that year. It didn’t happen - the surplus this year is at least 3.5% of GDP. (And higher if you use trade data.)

Why is an Asian tech giant storing rare earths in a secret German bunker? trib.al/pd74Kj0

Japan frustrated at Trump administration’s silence over row with China on.ft.com/44bSqcy

FREE FOR ALL READERS: The government gains a one-seat majority in the lower house — a boost for Takaichi — but she is still faces doubts about her fiscal policies, her call with Donald Trump, and maybe also her attitude towards political finance reform. open.substack.com/pub/observin...

It’s an interesting position to both claim to be safeguarding victory in WW2 and also claim that the treaty that legally ended that war in the Asia-Pacific for most nations is “invalid scrap paper.”

Tuvaluans in Australia get ready for arrival of more compatriots “They'll try their best to stay [in their homeland] as long as they can. But some will try and migrate here if they can, especially when they have kids.” trib.al/rrNpSEC

🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...

China’s exports of tomato paste to industry powerhouse Italy have collapsed this year after an outcry over alleged use of forced labour in Xinjiang and complaints about misleading origin labelling by some Italian companies. www.ft.com/content/deea...

Happiness is going out drinking in Jinbocho with a friend who knows a bar that’s actually a bookstore.

Still some need for translators it seems.

I can confirm that this is a fantastic volume.

Then and now in Beijing. Autumn has come to MOFCOM.

Australian shipbuilder Civmec eyes joint Japan frigate project https://asia.nikkei.com/business/aerospace-defense-industries/australian-shipbuilder-civmec-eyes-joint-japan-frigate-project

Jakarta will now repay its debt to China for the embattled high-speed railway over a 60-year period, instead of the previously agreed 35 to 40 years. trib.al/JxqbGlq

I feel seen:

Japan is ramping up trade defense measures by initiating a record number of anti-dumping investigations this year, as it seeks to protect domestic industries from China’s overproduction and sweeping tariffs imposed by the United States. @japantimes.co.jp

Chinese companies shipped more goods overseas last month than expected, a sign of resilience that’s giving Beijing a stronger hand in the latest trade war with the US – Bloomberg: ‘Shipments to the US plunged 27% […] more than offset by strong growth in sales to regions like the European Union.’

From the nation that bought you the “Outback Steakhouse,” the latest abomination are these Tim Tam ripoffs. “Aussie Style” should be a protected GI.

日本の鉄鋼生産がアメリカを下回る　1〜8月 www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQO... アメリカがトランプ関税の効果で生産を伸ばすなか、中国の安値輸出で国際市況が悪化し増産しにくくなっています。 通年の生産量でもアメリカに抜かれると、日本は世界4位に後退します。

Rare to see quid pro quo laid out as plainly as in this op-ed by China's envoy in Warsaw "China presented Global Governance Initiative, based on the principle of practical action, thus responding to Poland's significant interest in exporting poultry meat to the Chinese market."

Beijing airport terminal 3 finally has a bar! And it’s not bad. (It’s only 2.5 years since the end of Covid Zero)

A new op-ed from me on China's WWII! @asianstudies.org www.asianstudies.org/why-does-chi...

Japanese school in Shenzhen remains on alert a year after stabbing trib.al/MXx0FVH

If Japanese companies are purchasing key parts of undersea cables from China, they will be encouraged to switch suppliers, a move to shore up the country's economic security. trib.al/oTDsEed

Rough few weeks to be an Asian ally of the US: on.ft.com/3JYZ1zX

I don’t think Japan looks like that. And it certainly doesn’t join up with Sakhalin. And the Philippines just got erased. Maybe a Department of Maps is needed too. www.war.gov/About/

Japan and Australia have been rapidly building up their defence ties over the last few years, and that’s set to continue with the RAN buying its first ships from Japan. (Link is free to read) www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

If you didn’t get enough of China’s military parade yesterday, you can tune in to hear my colleagues and I talk about it and the rest of the news out of China this week. (I hope I am coherent - I think I got a bit of heatstroke yesterday in the square.) www.bloomberg.com/sessions/202...

icymi www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

A look at Tokyo’s efforts to escape rare-earth dependence on China may help inform today’s newfound fans of industrial policy in Washington.

Chairman Mao fulfills a dream role: Farmer

Canberra not looking too bad.

Japanese automakers are passing on the additional U.S. tariff charges to American consumers, a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact. According to trade data, the drop in unit prices for U.S.-bound autos began to level off in July. trib.al/93hWoUo

Australia is sending billions to the Trump administration to boost America’s own submarine production rates - but according to the govt agency we’re not allowed to know the payment schedule/any refund rules. New freelance piece for @deepcutnews.bsky.social www.deepcutnews.com/p/australia-... #AUKUS

Taiwanese Foreign Minister Lin Chia-Lung's latest trip to Japan has put a damper on Sino-Japanese ties, with Beijing canceling at the last minute a bilateral meeting of agriculture ministers.